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View Full Version : Gary Johnson dropping in the polls?




Mikezelot
07-06-2016, 11:49 PM
I was looking at the rcp polls tonight and noticed that Gary is losing ground what's going on?

jct74
07-07-2016, 12:13 AM
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5949.html

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html



The most recent poll has him at 4%. The poll before that had him at 8%. I don't really see any definitive drop off in support yet. We'll see what the next few ones look like.

TheTexan
07-07-2016, 12:16 AM
Support for 3rd party = log(# days until voting happens) * 3

RonPaulGeorge&Ringo
07-07-2016, 12:54 AM
I've been assured that the new Johnson-Weld campaign slogan, "We love Hillary!" is a stroke of political genius. These polls must be rigged.

Mikezelot
07-07-2016, 01:30 AM
I think alot of his support is people think he's good on paper but once you see him a couple times and his social awkwardness you start to relise maybe he is not ready to be the leader of the free world. I know bill weld was a bad pick but the guy is very carismatic and hopefully that will rub off on Gary.

LibertyEagle
07-07-2016, 02:33 AM
I think alot of his support is people think he's good on paper but once you see him a couple times and his social awkwardness you start to relise maybe he is not ready to be the leader of the free world. I know bill weld was a bad pick but the guy is very carismatic and hopefully that will rub off on Gary.

The rubbing is having an impact; Johnson supports TPP. Of course, that is horrible, but if you're hoping Weld is rubbing off on him, there it is.

cindy25
07-07-2016, 06:38 AM
and his support if open borders

fedupinmo
07-07-2016, 07:35 AM
Castle doesn't have all these problems... It seems odd that Johnson's fading support isn't going there...
Of course Johnson is more leftist, and the "IF YOU"RE NOT VOTING FOR ___________ YOU"RE A TRAITOR" gin mill is up and running at breakneck pace...

RJ Liberty
07-07-2016, 08:06 AM
I was looking at the rcp polls tonight and noticed that Gary is losing ground what's going on?

RCP's average didn't include (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5949.html) the Morning Consult poll of June 30-July 4th (which has Johnson at 11% (https://morningconsult.com/2016/07/05/clinton-trump-nearly-tied-new-survey/)), the Morning Consult poll of June 24th-June 27th (also 11% (https://morningconsult.com/2016/06/27/clinton-gains-polls-voters-still-favor-trump-grow-economy/)), or the Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies poll released June 29th (Johnson 13% (https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia's_battleground_poll,_2016), his highest poll).

And Johnson's statewide numbers continue to climb, with him at 16% (http://www.wvwvaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Dcorps_WV_BG_06.30.16_for-release.pdf) now in Wisconsin, and a new California poll with Gary at 10% (http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Clinton-holds-big-lead-in-state-poll-despite-8344618.php) (the previous California poll, from mid-May, had him at 4% (http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/golden_state_poll_may_2016_results_tables_final.pd f)).

cajuncocoa
07-07-2016, 08:08 AM
I was looking at the rcp polls tonight and noticed that Gary is losing ground what's going on?Haven't you heard? He's a globalist who doesn't want to make America great. Again.

cajuncocoa
07-07-2016, 08:17 AM
Castle doesn't have all these problems... It seems odd that Johnson's fading support isn't going there...Of course Johnson is more leftist, and the "IF YOU"RE NOT VOTING FOR ___________ YOU"RE A TRAITOR" gin mill is up and running at breakneck pace...
It does seem odd that kids who support freedom from government to do whatever they choose wouldn't move to a candidate for a political party that promises to restrict pornography, gambling, and other vices and sins based on biblical philosophy. You would think those LP kids aren't paying attention or something!

William Tell
07-07-2016, 08:47 AM
Castle doesn't have all these problems... It seems odd that Johnson's fading support isn't going there...
Of course Johnson is more leftist, and the "IF YOU"RE NOT VOTING FOR ___________ YOU"RE A TRAITOR" gin mill is up and running at breakneck pace...

Well, Castle would be a principled choice. Most voters don't care about principle, most of the Sanders/Cruz supporters who are looking at third parties now will ultimately vote for Clinton and Trump.

Suzanimal
07-07-2016, 09:06 AM
It does seem odd that kids who support freedom from government to do whatever they choose wouldn't move to a candidate for a political party that promises to restrict pornography, gambling, and other vices and sins based on biblical philosophy. You would think those LP kids aren't paying attention or something!

Those are planks in the CP platform. I believe Castle said he doesn't think government should be involved in those things.


This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?

No I really don’t. The states are free of course to regulate if their people prefer but I see no Constitutional role in such things except possibly to control the spread of pandemic disease or something of that nature.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?497441-Darrell-Castle-Says-He%92s-More-Libertarian-Than-Gary-Johnson

cajuncocoa
07-07-2016, 09:07 AM
Those are planks in the CP platform. I believe Castle said he doesn't think government should be involved in those things.


http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?497441-Darrell-Castle-Says-He%92s-More-Libertarian-Than-Gary-JohnsonLink? I see he disagrees with his party on drugs, but can't find information on many other things.

William Tell
07-07-2016, 09:10 AM
Link? I see he disagrees with his party on drugs, but can't find information on many other things.

She already linked it.:confused:

RJ Liberty
07-07-2016, 09:14 AM
It does seem odd that kids who support freedom from government to do whatever they choose wouldn't move to a candidate for a political party that promises to restrict pornography, gambling, and other vices and sins based on biblical philosophy. You would think those LP kids aren't paying attention or something!

Good point. Don't forget the Constitution Party's support (http://www.ontheissues.org/Constitution_Party.htm) of capital punishment (state-sponsored killing) and their calling for the "use of US troops" to combat illegal immigration. This is the party of true liberty! ;)

Suzanimal
07-07-2016, 09:15 AM
Link? I see he disagrees with his party on drugs, but can't find information on many other things.

According to the quote, it seems he's not interested in legislating it if it's between consenting adults.

http://libertyhangout.org/2016/07/interview-with-darrell-castle-constitution-candidate/

William Tell
07-07-2016, 09:18 AM
According to the quote, it seems he's not interested in legislating it if it's between consenting adults.

http://libertyhangout.org/2016/07/interview-with-darrell-castle-constitution-candidate/
That's impossible, how could a candidate disagree with his party? I mean, its not like Trump and Johnson disagree with theirs.:rolleyes:

Now bake muh damn cake.

Suzanimal
07-07-2016, 09:20 AM
That's impossible, how could a candidate disagree with his party? I mean, its not like Trump and Johnson disagree with theirs.:rolleyes:

Now bake muh damn cake.

It's not like Ron Paul ever disagreed with the GOP.O_o

William Tell
07-07-2016, 09:21 AM
It's not like Ron Paul ever disagreed with the GOP.O_o

He had the sacred L next to his name in the 80s though. That purified him, like it did Bob Barr.:D

RJ Liberty
07-07-2016, 09:32 AM
It's not like Ron Paul ever disagreed with the GOP.O_o

So what are Castle's positions on capital punishment, porn, gambling, and immigration? We already know how he feels about the "homosexual agenda". I can't find much on his website that discusses his stance being different than the official Constitution Party platform. I thought maybe I'd find some MSM press interviews, but it appears that Mr. Castle hasn't done any (?).

Suzanimal
07-07-2016, 09:38 AM
So what are Castle's positions on capital punishment, porn, gambling, and immigration? We already know how he feels about the "homosexual agenda". I can't find much on his website that discusses his stance being different than the official Constitution Party platform. I thought maybe I'd find some MSM press interviews, but it appears that Mr. Castle hasn't done any (?).

You commented on this interview, did you even read it?:confused:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?497441-Darrell-Castle-Says-He%92s-More-Libertarian-Than-Gary-Johnson

euphemia
07-07-2016, 09:41 AM
Please allow me to point out that a candidate's personal position on things like pornography and drugs does not necessarily mean he thinks the full force of government should be brought against people who use them (exceptions for the victimization of children). Castle is the only candidate who is strictly in favor of a noninterventionist foreign policy. He is the only candidate who thinks the military exists to defend the actual United States on American soil, and he is the only candidate who is for the end of the Federal Reserve. As far as I know, he has held these positions always.

I have my personal standard for living, and I think it's right for me. I do not think the government should force everyone to live the way I do, or that they should make everyone agree or celebrate how I live.

cajuncocoa
07-07-2016, 09:44 AM
^^ That would mirror my situation as well. I've never done recreational drugs, and I have no interest in porn or prostitution, but I don't think the Feds should prohibit these activities for willing, consenting adults.

William Tell
07-07-2016, 09:44 AM
You commented on this interview, did you even read it?:confused:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?497441-Darrell-Castle-Says-He%92s-More-Libertarian-Than-Gary-Johnson
Probably not, he just goes talking crap about the Party in every thread.

RJ Liberty
07-07-2016, 09:45 AM
You commented on this interview, did you even read it?:confused:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?497441-Darrell-Castle-Says-He%92s-More-Libertarian-Than-Gary-Johnson

Yes. I was looking for a mainstream news article, not libertyhangout.org; the article doesn't mention anything about capital punishment, porn, gambling, or most liberty issues. Are there any interviews that Mr Castle has given to the press?

William Tell
07-07-2016, 09:45 AM
I only saw drugs specifically mentioned in that article. Did you read something I missed?



This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?




This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?




This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?




This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?




This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?




This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?




This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?




This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults?




This next question ties in with drug policy. Do you see a role for the federal government in regulating and/or prohibiting things such as prostitution, gambling, smoking, polygamous relationships or any other activities made by consenting adults? ...

William Tell
07-07-2016, 09:47 AM
Yes. I was looking for a mainstream news article, not libertyhangout.org; the article doesn't mention anything about capital punishment, porn, gambling, or most liberty issues.

LMAO it does mention gambling, prostitution too if you care about that.

Suzanimal
07-07-2016, 09:48 AM
Yes. I was looking for a mainstream news article, not libertyhangout.org;

You're probably not going to find one.



the article doesn't mention anything about capital punishment, porn, gambling, or most liberty issues. Are there any interviews that Mr Castle has given to the press?

So it doesn't "count" if he doesn't say it to CNN? LOL:rolleyes:

William Tell
07-07-2016, 09:49 AM
You're probably not going to find one.




So it doesn't "count" if he doesn't say it to CNN? LOL:rolleyes:
How dare Castle not manage to force CNN to interview him....

cajuncocoa
07-07-2016, 09:50 AM
...Got it. I edited my post when I re-read the article ;)

Suzanimal
07-07-2016, 09:53 AM
How dare Castle not manage to force CNN to interview him....

Well, we all know it's not true unless it's been reported by the MSM.

RJ Liberty
07-07-2016, 09:55 AM
You're probably not going to find one.

So it doesn't "count" if he doesn't say it to CNN? LOL:rolleyes:

I didn't say anything about CNN; only you have. It could be the Toledo Blade. Are there really none? What public appearances has Castle made during the campaign? Is he really making an effort to run for president, if he's not granting interviews to the MSM and doesn't make regular public appearances? These are the sorts of questions that need to be asked.

Suzanimal
07-07-2016, 10:00 AM
I didn't say anything about CNN; only you have. It could be the Toledo Blade. Are there really none? What public appearances has Castle made during the campaign? Is he really making an effort to run for president, if he's not granting interviews to the MSM and doesn't make regular public appearances? These are the sorts of questions that need to be asked.

From http://castle2016.com/ ... You sure you looked over his website?

On the home page there's a video interview of him by The Washington Journal on C-span and right below that in the Newsfeed section, he updates his itinerary.


Campaign Update: 1 July 2016
Jul 1, 2016
THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL: Colorado and Wyoming
Sunday’s Schedule
10:00 am – attending church service at Fourway Baptist Church in Fort Lupton.
3:00 pm – speech at Destiny Christian Center in Greeley. Event is open to the public.
6:30 pm to 8:00 pm – dinner at Panhandlers Pizza in Fort Collins, drop in and say ‘hi’ or ask him a question.
Contact Doug Aden for more information: 303-949-4291.
Monday’s Schedule
Cheyenne in the morning to meet with local media.
Laramie in the afternoon for the Freedom Has A Birthday event. Click here for details.


I doubt it has anything to do with granting interviews, it's probably more like theye aren't interested in interviewing him.

euphemia
07-07-2016, 11:19 AM
I didn't say anything about CNN; only you have. It could be the Toledo Blade. Are there really none? What public appearances has Castle made during the campaign? Is he really making an effort to run for president, if he's not granting interviews to the MSM and doesn't make regular public appearances? These are the sorts of questions that need to be asked.

I agree with you. What I know to be true is that Castle is not independently wealthy and he has to work to support his family. And I know the CP is in court in several states trying to gain ballot access. Beyond that, I don't really know what else to tell you. He's the best candidate nobody ever heard of.

fedupinmo
07-07-2016, 11:33 AM
Good point. Don't forget the Constitution Party's support (http://www.ontheissues.org/Constitution_Party.htm) of capital punishment (state-sponsored killing) and their calling for the "use of US troops" to combat illegal immigration. This is the party of true liberty! ;)
Securing our nation's borders is a key part of maintaining our Liberty, as is the meting out of the ultimate punishment for the most heinous of crimes.

acptulsa
07-07-2016, 03:25 PM
I was looking at the rcp polls tonight... what's going on?

You'll never find out that way.

If something is going on, RCP will be the first to eliminate those polls which don't do their best to hide it from you.

RJ Liberty
07-08-2016, 12:41 PM
I agree with you. What I know to be true is that Castle is not independently wealthy and he has to work to support his family. And I know the CP is in court in several states trying to gain ballot access. Beyond that, I don't really know what else to tell you. He's the best candidate nobody ever heard of.

Euphemia,

Thanks for your well-reasoned discussion of Darrell Castle. I was beginning to despair of having a real discussion when Suz referred me to libertyhangout.org and C-SPAN (a non-profit public affairs channel) when I asked about mainstream media interviews with Castle. I did find a cool article about Castle in the Laramie, Wyoming Boomerang, and that interview is way better (http://www.laramieboomerang.com/news/local_news/presidential-candidate-darrell-castle-promotes-conservatism-constitutionalism/article_22ccd048-43e0-11e6-a3ff-47c156b147a9.html) than the stuff Castle is blogging about on his website.

We all know third party candidates face an uphill battle when it comes to the media and also finances. And we all know Ron Paul faced a major media blackout during his presidential runs.

Yet there are several things Castle could easily do to boost his chances in the election. WSIL-TV in Carbondale did a nice piece (http://www.wsiltv.com/story/32333843/can-a-third-party-candidate-win-in-november) on third parties, and included discussion of Castle. No media blackout there; he could easily take his campaign to local TV stations like WSIL-TV. He lives in Memphis, a short drive away. Instead, his "public appearance" schedule includes speaking at (or even just attending) church services, and having dinner at a pizza place. This is not (yet) a serious campaign, but it could be. And if Castle really wants the liberty vote, he could blog about real liberty issues (NSA spying, the police state, for-profit prisons, etc) instead of blogging about the "homosexual agenda (http://castle2016.com/depopulation/)", and aligning himself with a party which has a platform calling for military use of removing illegals, a return to biblical teachings, etc.

It's great that you've found a candidate that speaks to you, but he can't win me over with what he's said so far. But I wish him well.


You'll never find out that way.

If something is going on, RCP will be the first to eliminate those polls which don't do their best to hide it from you.

Yep. For the record, Gary just scored another 11% yesterday with Pew, his fourth national poll at 11% or higher in the past week or so. RCP has included the Pew Poll, but they still haven't added the other three polls, and I doubt they will.

euphemia
07-08-2016, 02:02 PM
I think Castle could do a lot to boost his chances. I don't think he will, though. Even they have been caught off guard with this election cycle. I'm not sure why. Nobody changed the calendar. It really is 2016.

Lovecraftian4Paul
07-08-2016, 10:10 PM
The polling decline is pretty normal based on most election cycles. Third party candidates always perform better before the two major parties have their conventions. Then they sink like rocks barring some unusual exposure, like what Ross Perot got. There were polls that had Nader in 2008 and Johnson in 2012 above 5%. They both ended up with a fraction of that.

I think up until now, Johnson was also a stand in for "Other" when the Bernie supporters were polled. More of them are folding to Hillary by the day, though, and I only expect this to continue once Bernie issues his official endorsement.

Peace&Freedom
07-09-2016, 04:31 AM
The polling decline is pretty normal based on most election cycles. Third party candidates always perform better before the two major parties have their conventions. Then they sink like rocks barring some unusual exposure, like what Ross Perot got. There were polls that had Nader in 2008 and Johnson in 2012 above 5%. They both ended up with a fraction of that.

I think up until now, Johnson was also a stand in for "Other" when the Bernie supporters were polled. More of them are folding to Hillary by the day, though, and I only expect this to continue once Bernie issues his official endorsement.

Or put more bluntly, in the final months the media and most polls do exactly the same thing to a third party candidate that they did to Paul in the primary race: NOT MENTION HIM, or only as an afterthought. The resulting drop in numbers (or no rise in the first place) is "normal" simply because it is the normal tactic of the establishment to marginalize political alternatives. The MSM buries the alternative candidate through the tried and true methods—limiting media mentions, giving him the least debate time, subtly suppressing his poll numbers, etc.

Who is included or not included in the published polls is determined by the MEDIA organs who are sponsoring the surveys. Surprise, surprise, the MSM's default mode is to include ONLY the major parties, thereby relegating alternatives who do not get this equivalent of millions of dollars in free advertising to the fall campaign version of the "kiddie table."

"Out of sight, out of mind." Paul supporters (many of whom were new to activism prior to 2007) noticed this subtle or blatant blackout of Ron and Rand mainly because it was happening within a major party race, instead of the practice being performed on minor party alternatives in the election campaign.

That was one of the factors behind journalists suggesting that Ron run third party---"why don't you just run the old fashion way, so we can ignore you without people noticing?" But as with the Pauls, minor parties 'sink like rocks' because of this MSM thumb-on-the-scale tactic, not because they were poor candidates.

H. E. Panqui
07-09-2016, 06:56 AM
....someone told me johnson hired bernie sanders' marketing team....'feel the johnson'...