PDA

View Full Version : Gary Johnson polling at 16% in Iowa, 14% in NM, 16% in Utah, 19% in Alaska




RJ Liberty
06-30-2016, 10:35 PM
The Iowa poll, showing Johnson at 16%, comes from Evolving Strategies/Ballotpedia (https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Iowa,_2016), and the poll was conducted from June 10th through the 22nd.

The New Mexico poll, with Johnson at 14%, was taken last month and comes from PPP (http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/).

The Utah poll, with Johnson at 16%, comes from Gravis (http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-utah-polling/). Survey USA gives Johnson 13% in Utah.

The Alaska number, with Johnson at 19%, comes from 538.com (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/alaska/).

Other states with Johnson polling well include:
Michigan (12%) (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5953.html)
Ohio (15% (https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2016) or 14%) (http://www.wvwvaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Dcorps_WV_BG_06.30.16_for-release.pdf)
Arizona (10%) (http://www.wvwvaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Dcorps_WV_BG_06.30.16_for-release.pdf).
Florida - Johnson 14% (Evolving Strategies poll, June 10-22)
Michigan - Johnson 14% (Evolving Strategies poll, June 10-22) [Previous poll was 12%]
Pennsylvania - Johnson 13% (Evolving Strategies poll, June 10-22)
Virginia - Johnson 11% (Evolving Strategies poll, June 10-22) [Previous poll was at 6%]
Wisconsin - Johnson 16% (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll ,released June 30th)
North Carolina - Johnson 10% (Evolving Strategies poll, released June 29th)
New Hampshire - Johnson 10% (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll ,released June 30th)
California - Johnson 10% (Field Poll (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article88085407.html), released July 5th)
Vermont - Johnson 10% (FM3 Poll (http://vtdigger.org/2016/07/07/poll-clinton-has-15-point-edge-over-trump-in-vermont/), released July 7th)
Colorado - Johnson 13% (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/13/fox-news-poll-trump-trails-clinton-in-colorado.html) (released July 13th) there. [Previous poll was at 9%]
Utah - Johnson 16%
Georgia - Johnson 11% (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-georgia-226711), Aug 4th

These are great numbers, especially considering almost no money has yet been spent on the campaign. In many states, Johnson's already polling very close to 15% or 538 is estimating numbers close to 15%.

FSP-Rebel
06-30-2016, 11:09 PM
I'd vote for him

RJ Liberty
06-30-2016, 11:33 PM
I'm planning to vote for him, too.

Brian4Liberty
06-30-2016, 11:52 PM
Nothing against Gary, but before any egos ballon out of proportion, these are votes are against Hillary and Trump, not necessarily for Gary.

LibertyEagle
07-01-2016, 12:18 AM
Yay for a North American Union and world government.

Working Poor
07-01-2016, 12:21 AM
Good I hope he will poll good enough to at least get in the debate. I am going to vote for him I just can't vote for Trump or Hillary

LibertyEagle
07-01-2016, 12:25 AM
Good I hope he will poll good enough to at least get in the debate. I am going to vote for him I just can't vote for Trump or Hillary

Yeah, gotta love that his running mate co-chaired the CFR's task force, "Building a North American Community". Real liberty stuff there. :rolleyes:

RJ Liberty
07-01-2016, 12:40 AM
Nothing against Gary, but before any egos ballon out of proportion, these are votes are against Hillary and Trump, not necessarily for Gary.

No doubt that's true. Still, the numbers are impressive. We haven't seen third party numbers like these since the days of Perot.

cindy25
07-01-2016, 05:35 AM
Nothing against Gary, but before any egos ballon out of proportion, these are votes are against Hillary and Trump, not necessarily for Gary.

doesn't matter how. a negative vote is easier to get than a vote for someone. Johnson is everyone's 1st or 2nd choice. 15% means debates. a heath crisis or legal problem could easily put him in 2nd place

Working Poor
07-01-2016, 06:13 AM
Yeah, gotta love that his running mate co-chaired the CFR's task force, "Building a North American Community". Real liberty stuff there. :rolleyes:

So you tell me what is better about Trump or Hillary? I can't think of one thing at least Johnson won't be trying to start WWIII. Trump is considering Chrispy Cream for VP that alone is enough not to vote for him. I really almost lost it when I saw him paling around with Obama. Hillary will likely put in big gun control I feel like the only choice I have left is Johnson.

cajuncocoa
07-01-2016, 06:30 AM
//

dean.engelhardt
07-01-2016, 06:53 AM
Nothing against Gary, but before any egos ballon out of proportion, these are votes are against Hillary and Trump, not necessarily for Gary.

Do I get a ban for neg repping a moderator? This logic does not work well with a group that has a history of write in votes for Ron Paul.

RJ Liberty
07-01-2016, 08:51 AM
Do I get a ban for neg repping a moderator? This logic does not work well with a group that has a history of write in votes for Ron Paul.
You make a good point, Dean. Any time we vote for someone outside the two-party system, we're voting against the two-party system.

William Tell
07-01-2016, 08:56 AM
So?

So, even if Gary managed to get 16%, the LP would most likely go back to getting 1% next cycle.

69360
07-01-2016, 09:16 AM
In those states, it does not surprise me at all. Too bad he hasn't got above 15% nationally yet.

Maybe if Clinton or her flunkies get indicted and Trump continues to go off the reservation, enough will peel off both major parties to get Johnson into the debates. Not likely but possible. He really needs a huge donor to get the ads going online and TV to get his name out there.

torchbearer
07-01-2016, 09:35 AM
https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13529030_1751058501828460_6047721933881161295_n.jp g?oh=828d4b55e02a92833786dab494b58b8e&oe=57EE42D5

CaptUSA
07-01-2016, 09:40 AM
Yeah, gotta love that his running mate co-chaired the CFR's task force, "Building a North American Community". Real liberty stuff there. :rolleyes:

Ironic that this is coming from a Trump supporter, right? :rolleyes:

I mean, I'm not a big fan of Johnson or Weld, but this is really the pot calling the kettle black.

phill4paul
07-01-2016, 09:45 AM
New Johnson/Weld ad just came out. It'll be interesting to see how it works. I don't think it is a bad ad. They don't attack other candidates but instead boost themselves as a team.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGD8gJt7weU

cajuncocoa
07-01-2016, 09:53 AM
//

RJ Liberty
07-01-2016, 10:11 AM
In those states, it does not surprise me at all. Too bad he hasn't got above 15% nationally yet.

Not yet. But many of the state polls and 538.com's estimates look very encouraging. In 21 states, 538.com already forecasts Gary getting between 11% and 19%, based on polls and historic election data. This is before any serious money has been spent on Gary's campaign.



Maybe if Clinton or her flunkies get indicted and Trump continues to go off the reservation, enough will peel off both major parties to get Johnson into the debates. Not likely but possible. He really needs a huge donor to get the ads going online and TV to get his name out there.

One huge donor (like the Kochs), or lots of small donations. But Bill Weld's done fundraising before, and he seemed confident in the CNN town hall that they could raise a serious amount of cash. He previously stated they'd need $20 million to mount a serious campaign, and he's raised big amounts before. Drew Carey is holding a big LP fundraiser on July 23rd, and Johnson has formed a joint fundraising committee (http://go.johnsonweld.com/category/press/) with 15 state LP offices. Plus, Bill's former partners have formed a Super PAC. Will any of it matter? I don't know, but it does seem like major fundraising efforts are underway.

younglibertarian
07-01-2016, 10:14 AM
I am quite shocked to be honest. It would seem we need to be let in the debates now.

cajuncocoa
07-01-2016, 10:17 AM
//

dean.engelhardt
07-01-2016, 11:05 AM
So, even if Gary managed to get 16%, the LP would most likely go back to getting 1% next cycle.

Maybe, maybe not. The GOP is in a downward spiral. They can't get their platform together. Trump can't win this year because he barely polls 50% with registered republicans. The last time there was three consecutive terms of a democrat president was FDR; before the term limit.

The GOP has just lost touch with the voting class and has making itself into a third party for many years. It creates a great void for the LP.

William Tell
07-01-2016, 11:07 AM
Maybe, maybe not. The GOP is in a downward spiral. They can't get their platform together. Trump can't win this year because he barely polls 50% with registered republicans. The last time there was three consecutive terms of a democrat president was FDR; before the term limit.

The GOP has just lost touch with the voting class and has making itself into a third party for many years. It create a great void for the LP.

Yeah, well the GOP has lost touch with the voters and the LP has lost touch with the liberty movement.

undergroundrr
07-01-2016, 11:57 AM
New Johnson/Weld ad just came out. It'll be interesting to see how it works. I don't think it is a bad ad. They don't attack other candidates but instead boost themselves as a team.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGD8gJt7weU

Great ad. Got me pretty excited, actually. I think "You In?" is good branding.

Weld has the best line - "Small, efficient government that treats the American people like family instead of livestock."

I'd love to see this ad get serious exposure.

Brian4Liberty
07-01-2016, 12:14 PM
Do I get a ban for neg repping a moderator? This logic does not work well with a group that has a history of write in votes for Ron Paul.

What "logic" do you disagree with? I did not say to not vote for the Libertarian candidate. I did not say to vote for Hillary or Trump. By all means, vote Libertarian.

My point is simple. It's not necessarily about the candidate. If Lindsey Graham was the Libertarian candidate, and was polling at 15%, would it be because Lindsey is awe inspiring, or just that people are looking towards an alternative to the GOP/Dem candidates? It's not as simple as "Lindsey is great, he is pulling in more votes than any other Libertarian ever!"

Bottom line: vote Libertarian, whether you love Gary or not.

Brian4Liberty
07-01-2016, 12:16 PM
So?

You answered your own question:


Maybe. But if they can crack that 5% threshold, and if (and that is a BIG if) they get a clue and nominate a better candidate in 2020, there's a chance you might be wrong.

I can hope.

cajuncocoa
07-01-2016, 01:05 PM
//

Bern
07-01-2016, 01:44 PM
I hope if GJ makes it into a Presidential debate, that he takes full advantage of it. He's going to need a much stronger showing than what I saw on that CNN town hall. I hope he's preparing for it now.

RJ Liberty
07-01-2016, 01:57 PM
I hope if GJ makes it into a Presidential debate, that he takes full advantage of it. He's going to need a much stronger showing than what I saw on that CNN town hall. I hope he's preparing for it now.

I think right now, the focus is on getting to 15% nationally. Gary has two months to convince the American people to vote for him, which means doing the talk show circuit and as many public appearances as possible (check! (https://www.reddit.com/r/GaryJohnson/comments/4musuz/full_gary_johnson_media_schedule/)). No point in wasting time honing your debate skills if you aren't going to be in the debate.

69360
07-01-2016, 02:18 PM
I hope if GJ makes it into a Presidential debate, that he takes full advantage of it. He's going to need a much stronger showing than what I saw on that CNN town hall. I hope he's preparing for it now.

If Gary got into the debates and performed well, he could blow the whole thing wide open. It's a big if though. He doesn't always present himself well. Sometime he has his moments though.

These are the most unpopular major party candidates in my lifetime. The gap from 15% to a three way race could happen fast if the LP had a podium at the debates. Trump could continue to gaffe and alienate people and Clinton or her cronies could be indicted. Neither will end their campaigns I'm sure but it could take voters from them and give them to the LP.

nickpruitt
07-01-2016, 03:15 PM
Gary Johnson just isn't very intelligent on certain parts of his platform.

For example he doesn't know how to present drug legalization. When that woman did her son's story about how her son was disabled by heroin the best way to present a counter argument is that criminalizing drugs is exactly why her son got bad drugs. Instead he backed down because he didn't know how to present a case for legalization creating a different environment because anyone wanting to really sell a product is going for an actual free market will be held accountable a lot easier than being sold illegally in a black market.

Same with a lot of areas in his platform. He won't come across as intelligent on a national stage because he isn't very principled or very smart. He's too political.

luctor-et-emergo
07-01-2016, 03:25 PM
I hope he makes the debates, that would be fun.

francisco
07-01-2016, 11:47 PM
Nothing against Gary, but before any egos ballon out of proportion, these are votes are against Hillary and Trump, not necessarily for Gary.

How many votes for Trump are actually votes against Clinton?

How many votes for Clinton are actually votes against Trump?

Brian4Liberty
07-01-2016, 11:57 PM
How many votes for Trump are actually votes against Clinton?

How many votes for Clinton are actually votes against Trump?

Good point. That would lead to the conclusion that we have no good candidates this time around.

francisco
07-02-2016, 12:06 AM
Good point. That would lead to the conclusion that we have no good candidates this time around.

Pretty sure that all but the most ardent partisans on all sides figured this out some time ago

Brian4Liberty
07-02-2016, 12:09 AM
Pretty sure that all but the most ardent partisans on all sides figured this out some time ago

My enthusiasm for this election can hardly be contained.

cajuncocoa
07-02-2016, 07:57 AM
//

RJ Liberty
07-02-2016, 10:18 AM
Here are more strong poll numbers.

Florida - Johnson 14% (Evolving Strategies poll, June 10-22)
Michigan - Johnson 14% (Evolving Strategies poll, June 10-22) [Previous poll was 12%]
Pennsylvania - Johnson 13% (Evolving Strategies poll, June 10-22)
Virginia - Johnson 11% (Evolving Strategies poll, June 10-22) [Previous poll was at 6%]

younglibertarian
07-02-2016, 10:24 AM
Don't worry, they will make some biased polls to bring us under 15% average, you watch.

ronpaulhawaii
07-02-2016, 10:29 AM
Good point. That would lead to the conclusion that we have no good candidates this time around.


Pretty sure that all but the most ardent partisans on all sides figured this out some time ago


My enthusiasm for this election can hardly be contained.


Get in line.

lol...

Ron was a very rare politician/philosopher. Most philosophers have no inclination to run for office and it often goes against their principles. Hell, even Ron had to compromise on principles occasionally.

Johnson/Weld are politicians. I'm ok with that as politicians tend to do much better electorally and, while they are far from a Ron Paul, they do appear to place on the Libertarian side of the Nolan Chart.

I find these numbers encouraging. There are as many reasons to vote for X as there are voters. Some vote for, others against, and many don't even give a second thought beyond whatever leaned them in a direction in the first place. It is what it is.

The opportunity for freedom lovers is to reach these new eyeballs and bring them further into the tent...

Trump remains an authoritarian gas bag, without a clue on how government actually works, and I laugh any supporter of his talking about freedom like they actually care about it more than their particular pet peeve...

RJ Liberty
07-02-2016, 10:30 AM
Don't worry, they will make some biased polls to bring us under 15% average, you watch.

Heh. I do not doubt this. Not at all. The polls selected will be the worst ones they can find.

RJ Liberty
07-02-2016, 11:12 AM
538.com's also done an analysis of the statewide polls, and has forecast some numbers for Johnson. Here are the states where he's close to or above 15%. In some cases, the numbers are based on poll averages; in others, I'm not sure what they are basing the numbers on. The number for New Mexico seems too high, based on current polls, and the numbers for other states seem too low, based on current polls. And some of these states haven't yet had any polls which included Johnson. So make of these numbers what you will.

Alaska - 19.1%
Montana - 17.6%
New Mexico - 16.5%
Utah - 13.9%
Wyoming - 13.8%
Iowa - 13.1%
Maine - 12.5%
Arizona - 12.5%
Michigan - 12.4%
Kansas - 12.2%
North Dakota - 12.1%
Idaho - 11.8%
Indiana - 11.7%
Vermont - 11.7%
South Dakota - 11.5%
Nebraska - 11.3%
Minnesota - 11.2%
Oregon 11.1%
Arkansas - 11%
Pennsylvania - 11%
Washington - 11%

CPUd
07-02-2016, 11:35 AM
538.com's also done an analysis of the statewide polls, and has forecast some numbers for Johnson. Here are the states where he's close to or above 15%. In some cases, the numbers are based on poll averages; in others, I'm not sure what they are basing the numbers on. The number for New Mexico seems too high, based on current polls, and the numbers for other states seem too low, based on current polls. And some of these states haven't yet had any polls which included Johnson. So make of these numbers what you will.

Alaska - 19.1%
Montana - 17.6%
New Mexico - 16.5%
Utah - 13.9%
Wyoming - 13.8%
Iowa - 13.1%
Maine - 12.5%
Arizona - 12.5%
Michigan - 12.4%
Kansas - 12.2%
North Dakota - 12.1%
Idaho - 11.8%
Indiana - 11.7%
Vermont - 11.7%
South Dakota - 11.5%
Nebraska - 11.3%
Minnesota - 11.2%
Oregon 11.1%
Arkansas - 11%
Pennsylvania - 11%
Washington - 11%

If those numbers are "polls plus", they may take into account Gary being the former governor of NM. They will often estimate lower in states where there is not a lot of polling data.

eleganz
07-02-2016, 09:33 PM
I think once Trump is solidified as the nominee GJ will get more traction. Gary is really not doing a good job at bringing attention to himself but he has a decent message and I'm pretty impressed with how he and Weld sell themselves as a legitimate presidential team.

RJ Liberty
07-03-2016, 09:07 AM
I think once Trump is solidified as the nominee GJ will get more traction. Gary is really not doing a good job at bringing attention to himself but he has a decent message and I'm pretty impressed with how he and Weld sell themselves as a legitimate presidential team.

The only thing I disagree with in your post is that Gary's not doing a good job bringing attention to himself. He's been making up to eight media appearances per day (https://www.reddit.com/r/GaryJohnson/comments/4musuz/full_gary_johnson_media_schedule/).

RJ Liberty
07-03-2016, 09:23 AM
One thing all advocates of alternative party candidates (LP, Constitution Party AND Green Party) need to make sure we do...we need to stop the nonsense that stupid people spread, that voting for someone other than the major two flunkies is "throwing one's vote away" or that "a vote for the (insert alternative party candidate here) is a vote for (insert major party candidate's name who is most abhorrent to the voter here.)"

We need to break the stranglehold these two have on the electorate, and this year is our best chance.

This is a good point that I think deserves some discussion. I've even seen that "throwing your vote away" argument made on RPF, of all places, where people wrote in Ron Paul's name, sometimes even on ballots where write-ins wouldn't be counted.

A third-party vote is never wasted, because it's a vote against the two-party system.

RJ Liberty
07-04-2016, 11:15 AM
Add Wisconsin to the list of states where Johnson's polling well. Gary is now taking 16% of Wisconsin voters in the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll (released June 30th).

He's also reached 10% in North Carolina (Evolving Strategies poll, released June 29th) and 10% in New Hampshire (in the same poll as the Wisconsin poll).

RJ Liberty
07-04-2016, 04:00 PM
In other poll news, Trump is now behind Gary Johnson among blacks and other minorities, (http://politic365.com/2016/07/04/black-voters-trump-behind-libertarian-johnson-in-swing-states/) according to the GQR poll released last week. When was the last time a third party beat a major party in any demographic?

RonPaulGeorge&Ringo
07-04-2016, 04:05 PM
In other poll news, Trump is now behind Gary Johnson among blacks and other minorities, (http://politic365.com/2016/07/04/black-voters-trump-behind-libertarian-johnson-in-swing-states/) according to the GQR poll released last week. When was the last time a third party beat a major party in any demographic?

Probably a few weeks ago when it was announced that Hillary was third among independent voters.

phill4paul
07-04-2016, 04:13 PM
Probably a few weeks ago when it was announced that Hillary was third among independent voters.

Shit's all up in the air. Honestly, polls at this point are fluid. If the LP is truly getting numbers then I think it is a good thing. Just because I would like a third party to become relevant. I dunno. The CIA has influenced election on foreign shores so..why not here? As a small "l" libertarian I can't believe Johnson and Weld are the ticket from a philosophical view. But, they are taking the moderate approach, which I think will play out going forward. I dunno.

RJ Liberty
07-04-2016, 04:57 PM
$#@!'s all up in the air. Honestly, polls at this point are fluid. If the LP is truly getting numbers then I think it is a good thing. Just because I would like a third party to become relevant.

As would I. I've never understood why this country can only ever have two major parties when every other country in the world has three or more choices. In a country as vast as ours, artificially limiting the choices to two voices makes no sense. When Ron ran in 2008, I had a glimmer of hope in the Republican Party, but they snuffed that out pretty quickly. The change we need isn't going to come from the Rs or the Ds. These strong numbers give me hope that a third party, imperfect as it is, can offer some level of choice.

And the numbers do seem to be quite strong. Open Secrets states that Gary's campaign has only spent $523,000 (https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/candidate.php?id=N00033226) since January. That's less than $3,000 per day. Trump's spent $63,000,000 and Clinton's spent $229,000,000. Yet Gary's already polling at about 1/3rd of Trump's numbers.

RJ Liberty
07-08-2016, 04:15 PM
Add California and Vermont to the list of states where Johnson is polling at 10% or above.

California - 10% (Field Poll (http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article88085407.html), released July 5th)
Vermont - 10% (FM3 Poll (http://vtdigger.org/2016/07/07/poll-clinton-has-15-point-edge-over-trump-in-vermont/), released July 7th)

Krugminator2
07-08-2016, 04:31 PM
And the numbers do seem to be quite strong. Open Secrets states that Gary's campaign has only spent $523,000 (https://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/candidate.php?id=N00033226) since January. That's less than $3,000 per day. Trump's spent $63,000,000 and Clinton's spent $229,000,000. Yet Gary's already polling at about 1/3rd of Trump's numbers.


The Giant Meteor of Doom is polling at 13% in the latest PPP poll, better than than GJ. He has spent $0.

Gary was the best choice for the LP ticket but is still very weak. Gary has more downside potential than upside potential. The idea of Gary Johnson sounds great on paper. 2 term Governor, successful in business. Then when you hear him talk, most people realize he isn't too bright. I can overlook almost any ideological difference if the person is semi-reasonable. But Gary is incredibly lazy and ill-prepared. He hasn't even made the effort to formulate responses to even the most basic questions like drug legalization.



This has given rise to the 'Giant Meteor for President' movement, and we find that the Meteor would poll at 13%- far more support than the third party candidates actually on the ballot- with Clinton at 43% and Trump at 38%. The Meteor is particularly appealing to independent voters, functionally in a three way tie at 27% to 35% for Clinton and 31% for Trump. Maybe that's who the Libertarians should have nominated. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/presidential-race-shaping-up-similarly-to-2012.html

RJ Liberty
07-08-2016, 06:08 PM
The Giant Meteor of Doom is polling at 13% in the latest PPP poll, better than than GJ. He has spent $0.

PPP put The Giant Meteor of Doom in their poll for free; it didn't cost him any money for the exposure. Johnson, on the other hand, has had to spend money to even get into the polls. PPP didn't even include him in their polls in 2012, and only begrudgingly included him this year once other pollsters started to do so. The Giant Meteor of Doom never had that issue; PPP was happy to include him as soon as he entered the race.



Gary was the best choice for the LP ticket but is still very weak. Gary has more downside potential than upside potential. The idea of Gary Johnson sounds great on paper. 2 term Governor, successful in business. Then when you hear him talk, most people realize he isn't too bright. I can overlook almost any ideological difference if the person is semi-reasonable. But Gary is incredibly lazy and ill-prepared. He hasn't even made the effort to formulate responses to even the most basic questions like drug legalization.


He does need to improve his public speaking, but I would not call him lazy; he's doing up to 20 media appearances per day now, according to Reason. That's impressive.

NewRightLibertarian
07-08-2016, 06:40 PM
Elmer Fudd or Daffy Duck would poll just as well if not better as Gary Johnson. Remember that Deez Nutz got 10 percent against Hitlery and Trump too. "Giant Meteor" has out-polled Gary Johnson recently. So these results mean dick.

The LP is just as mediocre and pathetic as ever, now they are just selling their souls and doing the bidding of the establishment in a sad attempt to be relevant. In fact, the Johnson/Weld ticket is a new low for those sorry cowards. Principled libertarians will vote for Castle, or stay home.

phill4paul
07-08-2016, 07:07 PM
Elmer Fudd or Daffy Duck would poll just as well if not better as Gary Johnson. Remember that Deez Nutz got 10 percent against Hitlery and Trump too. "Giant Meteor" has out-polled Gary Johnson recently. So these results mean dick.

The LP is just as mediocre and pathetic as ever, now they are just selling their souls and doing the bidding of the establishment in a sad attempt to be relevant. In fact, the Johnson/Weld ticket is a new low for those sorry cowards. Principled libertarians will vote for Castle, or stay home.

No. Thanks, anyway...


At the end of World War II, Europeans expelled 15 million ethnic Germans from countries across Europe. The Germans were driven out into the cold rain and the mud, raped, starved, and left to die in death camps. That is not a suggested solution for Islamic terrorism, folks, it’s just an historical fact. President Roosevelt, Stalin, and Churchill jointly agreed to this ethnic cleansing at the Potsdam Conference. They did it because the Germans shared the same ethnic culture, language, and bloodline as Hitler. They had to be racially punished for their blood guilt, even if they had been Europeans for the entire 800 years of western civilization, they could never be trusted again. That’s the way these people thought. Of course, the U.S. government then imported 4,000 Nazi scientists to help with the American rocket and jet propulsion programs, and a few were hanged at Nuremberg, but most escaped to South America. That solution might be a little harsh for our world today, folks.

Let’s look at what Dr. Ron Paul offers as a solution. “As in the United States, the security crisis in Europe is directly tied to bad policy. Until the bad policy is changed, no amount of surveillance, racial profiling, and police harassment can make the population safer. Europeans already seem to understand this, and as we have seen in recent German elections they are abandoning the parties that promise that the same old bad policies will, this time, produce different results. Hopefully, Americans will also stand up and demand a change in our foreign policy before bad policy leads to more terrorist violence on our shores.”

That’s okay, Dr. Paul, for our foreign policy; but for domestic policy, I would like to see secure borders, Jihadists deported, and no more Jihadists invited in. I don’t want to be assimilated, folks! And I don’t want to be extinguished! That’s the way I see it.

http://castle2016.com/islamic-terror/#more-741

NewRightLibertarian
07-08-2016, 07:20 PM
No. Thanks, anyway...



http://castle2016.com/islamic-terror/#more-741

Was that position a deal-breaker for you in 2012 when Ron Paul said nearly exactly the same thing?

phill4paul
07-08-2016, 07:30 PM
Was that position a deal-breaker for you in 2012 when Ron Paul said nearly exactly the same thing?

Not really and honestly I like most of Castles positions. I don't know why he would take that pot shot at Ron though. Doesn't seem necessary. It's his party that I have some concern over.


Gambling increases crimes, destroys families, grows governmental bureaucracies, exploits those who are addicted and leaches the economic prosperity out of our communities.. We are opposed to government sponsorship, involvement in, or promotion of gambling such as lotteries, casinos or subsidization of Native American casinos. We call for the repeal of federal legislation that usurps state and local authority regarding authorization and regulation of tribal casinos in the states.

As I understand it Tribal lands are not under state jurisdiction. Sovereign treaties govern them.


Pornography, obscenity and sexually oriented businesses are a distortion of the true nature of sex created by God for the procreative union between one man and one woman in the holy bonds of matrimony. This results in emotional, physical, spiritual and financial costs to individuals, families and communities.

Due to a lack of prosecution, the sexually oriented business industry has proliferated, aggravating the problems of child pornography, human trafficking and sexually transmitted diseases. This is decreasing our safety by increasing crime rates, specifically rape and molestation in additional to the loss of dignity belonging to all human beings.

We call on our local, state and federal governments to uphold our First Amendment right to free speech by vigorously enforcing all laws against obscenity.

They like everything to revert to state and locality except for this particular pet-peeve. What's next, prohibition of alcohol? :rolleyes:

There is more but you get my drift. They are, what I consider, correct on a number of issues. Others.....not so much.

RJ Liberty
07-14-2016, 05:25 PM
Add Colorado to the list of states where Johnson is polling above 10%. Just yesterday, Fox News released a new poll showing Gary at 13% (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/13/fox-news-poll-trump-trails-clinton-in-colorado.html) there. Previously, Gravis had Johnson at 9% (early July) in the Centennial State.

Meanwhile, fivethirtyeight.com has upgraded Johnson's estimates in Montana, from 17% to 18.9%. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/montana/#now)

Nationally, the numbers continue to climb, with Gary at 13% (http://iop.harvard.edu/survey/details/harvard-iop-summer-2016-poll) among Likely Voters in the Harvard Poll released this week (15% among all voters aged 18-29).

69360
07-14-2016, 06:55 PM
CBS/NY times national poll from the other day had Gary at 12%

Kind of amazing that in most polls 20% will not vote Trump or Clinton.

RJ Liberty
07-14-2016, 07:41 PM
CBS/NY times national poll from the other day had Gary at 12%

Kind of amazing that in most polls 20% will not vote Trump or Clinton.

Yep. The latest statewide Colorado poll had the two main candidates polling at just 65% combined. Even with every advantage the system and the media give them, the Rs and the Ds are still sliding into the hole there and throughout much of the West, New England, and parts of the Midwest.

CPUd
07-14-2016, 07:47 PM
2-way polling that has either of them over 40% should be looked at carefully. They are usually adding soft leaners after pushing.

RJ Liberty
07-14-2016, 10:34 PM
2-way polling that has either of them over 40% should be looked at carefully. They are usually adding soft leaners after pushing.

That does seem to be the case. All the polls I've been a part of (three so far) have been like this Reuters poll (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Reuters_June_25_to_29_2016.pdf), with two tiers of candidates: ClinTrump first, followed by a second follow-up question including Johnson (and sometimes Stein.) But even with a two-tiered candidate poll which clearly favors the main parties, Johnson is garnering big poll numbers in a large number of states. If Drew Carey's and Bill Weld's fundraisers raise a lot of money, the Republocrats may have some serious competition this fall.

CPUd
07-16-2016, 08:28 PM
754490918963523585

He also says in the comments that there's a 70% chance no one gets a majority.

RJ Liberty
07-16-2016, 08:56 PM
Indeed. And 538 didn't even include either of the two 13% polls Gary received. Even without those two polls counted, he's climbing.

alucard13mm
07-16-2016, 09:35 PM
If it is like in 2012.. I will vote for Gary Johnson... I guess =\.... I don't really like Gary Johnson too much, but its more like a protest vote ;s. It would be interesting to see if the LP can get higher than 1.5% this year.

RJ Liberty
07-17-2016, 10:54 AM
Third poll (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/07/17/survey-active-military-favor-trump-over-clinton/87219048/) just released with Gary at 13%; this one was a poll of the military.

LibertyEagle
07-17-2016, 11:20 AM
lol...

Ron was a very rare politician/philosopher. Most philosophers have no inclination to run for office and it often goes against their principles. Hell, even Ron had to compromise on principles occasionally.

Johnson/Weld are politicians. I'm ok with that as politicians tend to do much better electorally and, while they are far from a Ron Paul, they do appear to place on the Libertarian side of the Nolan Chart.
Yes, because we all know the Nolan Chart is the best litmus test. :rolleyes:


I find these numbers encouraging. There are as many reasons to vote for X as there are voters. Some vote for, others against, and many don't even give a second thought beyond whatever leaned them in a direction in the first place. It is what it is.

The opportunity for freedom lovers is to reach these new eyeballs and bring them further into the tent...

Trump remains an authoritarian gas bag, without a clue on how government actually works, and I laugh any supporter of his talking about freedom like they actually care about it more than their particular pet peeve...
Oh yes, the Trans Pacific Partnership is such a liberty-based document, isn't it? And so is its international ruling body that will be yet another above our own Congress. So is bringing in more unvetted Middle-eastern and other "refugees" from countries who have a large number of people who wish us dead.

Personally, I think that has much more in common with Communism than liberty. But, to each their own.

RJ Liberty
07-17-2016, 12:21 PM
CNN/ORC's poll, released today, is now the fourth poll (http://cbs4indy.com/2016/07/17/clinton-leads-trump-in-recent-poll-libertarian-gary-johnson-gains-ground/) where Gary's polling at 13%.

ronpaulhawaii
07-17-2016, 12:23 PM
Yes, because we all know the Nolan Chart is the best litmus test. :rolleyes:


Oh yes, the Trans Pacific Partnership is such a liberty-based document, isn't it? And so is its international ruling body that will be yet another above our own Congress. So is bringing in more unvetted Middle-eastern and other "refugees" from countries who have a large number of people who wish us dead.

Personally, I think that has much more in common with Communism than liberty. But, to each their own.

You keep acting like Johnson is a full throated proponent of TPP, yet ignore the "based on what I know" qualification of the answer he gave in the latest politico article, as well as his repetition that the free market is better and his references to crony capitalism...

RJ Liberty
08-05-2016, 10:18 PM
Add Georgia to the list of states where Gary's polling at or above 10% now: Johnson's at 11% (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-georgia-226711) in the new Abt-SRBI poll, taken at the beginning of this month.

clint4liberty
08-13-2016, 05:40 PM
The highest poll nationally I have viewed is Gary Johnson at 14%. It seems the polling companies are never going to include Gary Johnson on the first question.

satchelmcqueen
08-15-2016, 08:15 PM
Yeah, gotta love that his running mate co-chaired the CFR's task force, "Building a North American Community". Real liberty stuff there. :rolleyes:

so who else do we vote for then thats on all 50 state ballots? im all ears.