Cruz has lost net 18 points against Trump since Colorado convention & 1st ballot elimination

[RandallFan]

The average Republican voter doesn't agree with Cruz getting more votes from states where Trump got 40% and Cruz got 15%.


True to form, Cruz had been steadily gaining on Trump nationally since Marco Rubio suspended his campaign (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/rubio-suspends-presidential-campaign-220827) on March 15…



Reuters/Ipsos (http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160326-20160422/type/day)
Trump
Cruz


MAR. 12
Trump +25
48
23


MAR. 19
Trump +25
48
23


MAR. 26
Trump +21
48
27


APR. 2
Trump +12
44
32


But then the Colorado GOP Convention (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CO-R) happened on April 9…



Trump
Cruz


APR. 9
Trump +3
40
37


APR. 16
Trump +16
46
30


APR. 22
Trump +21
49
28



-3 to -21 in 2 weeks…



http://www.mofopolitics.com/2016/04/22/ted-cruz-lost-net-18-points-since-colorado/

[nikcers]

The average Republican voter doesn't agree with Cruz getting more votes from states where Trump got 40% and Cruz got 15%.



http://www.mofopolitics.com/2016/04/22/ted-cruz-lost-net-18-points-since-colorado/


I think there is nothing wrong with Bias but this is like saying that the world is getting warmer because it's hotter today then yesterday.

[RandallFan]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-62-say-republican-most-votes-should-be-nominee-n556846

Maybe only 40 or 50% of Republicans really believe that the person with the plurality of popular votes in the gop primary should be the nominee.

The number of Republicans who feel this way is certainly bigger than the 37% Trump has got so far.

[nikcers]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-62-say-republican-most-votes-should-be-nominee-n556846

Maybe only 40 or 50% of Republicans really believe that the person with the plurality of popular votes in the gop primary should be the nominee.

The number of Republicans who feel this way is certainly bigger than the 37% Trump has got so far.


Most people don't know how vice presidents get picked, why should I care what a majority think?

[luctor-et-emergo]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-62-say-republican-most-votes-should-be-nominee-n556846

Maybe only 40 or 50% of Republicans really believe that the person with the plurality of popular votes in the gop primary should be the nominee.

The number of Republicans who feel this way is certainly bigger than the 37% Trump has got so far.

The thing you are missing here I think is that the general election demographics are completely different than the primary demographics... Completely different.

How big of a percentage of the eligible population votes in primaries ? How big of a slice of all Republicans votes in the Republican primary ?

The thing is, you may be able to get 40% of the votes in the primaries, this however says nothing about the general election. Just look at this year.. Rand polled highest in the general election polls against Clinton but very low in the Republican party..... Think about that.

[dannno]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

I mean, maybe this is all a show and Trump is establishment too, but if so like I've said they are doing a pretty good job making him look anti-establishment and there doesn't seem to be any solid evidence either way at this point.



The thing you are missing here I think is that the general election demographics are completely different than the primary demographics... Completely different.

How big of a percentage of the eligible population votes in primaries ? How big of a slice of all Republicans votes in the Republican primary ?

The thing is, you may be able to get 40% of the votes in the primaries, this however says nothing about the general election. Just look at this year.. Rand polled highest in the general election polls against Clinton but very low in the Republican party..... Think about that.

Cruz might lose harder than Trump, though, despite the current polling.. Too many people still don't realize how evangelical he is, and that really turns off a lot of people. Not to mention he is way more sleazy than Trump. I have a progressive friend who was actually paying attention to the GOP debates and started liking Trump a lot more once he started debating foreign policy more in some of those later debates - he would never go for Cruz, or Trump for that matter, but he definitely prefers Trump at this point. I think he has broader appeal in a general election bid.

[dannno]

//

[nikcers]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

I mean, maybe this is all a show and Trump is establishment too, but if so like I've said they are doing a pretty good job making him look anti-establishment and there doesn't seem to be any solid evidence either way at this point.




Cruz might lose harder than Trump, though, despite the current polling.. Too many people still don't realize how evangelical he is, and that really turns off a lot of people. Not to mention he is way more sleazy than Trump. I have a progressive friend who was actually paying attention to the GOP debates and started liking Trump a lot more once he started debating foreign policy more in some of those later debates - he would never go for Cruz, or Trump for that matter, but he definitely prefers Trump at this point. I think he has broader appeal in a general election bid.

What If I told you there were multiple political parties that were part of the same establishment, that our policies don't change when presidents change and when you think they do they just hide it better. What if I told you that the election is entirely for show, and at the end the day Clinton is going to be golfing with Trump laughing at us dumbasses for wasting our time promoting other candidates for president, presidents get chosen, not elected.

[dannno]

What If I told you there were multiple political parties that were part of the same establishment, that our policies don't change when presidents change and when you think they do they just hide it better. What if I told you that the election is entirely for show, and at the end the day Clinton is going to be golfing with Trump laughing at us dumbasses for wasting our time promoting other candidates for president, presidents get chosen, not elected.

Ya I know, Trump could just be helping Clinton get elected... there's no solid evidence for that, but I admit it is entirely possible.

But the GOPe is usually fairly united to an extent, although certainly there are conflicts at times, for the most part they have all united against Trump at least in appearance. I admit it could just be a show, they could be pulling a House of Cards, there is some indication but no clear evidence.

Since it isn't clear whether he's actually anti-establishment or not, and he has some major policy problems, I don't support him. I don't allow myself to be tricked into voting for people like that.

[nikcers]

Ya I know, Trump could just be helping Clinton get elected... there's no solid evidence for that, but I admit it is entirely possible.

But the GOPe is usually fairly united to an extent, although certainly there are conflicts at times, for the most part they have all united against Trump at least in appearance. I admit it could just be a show, they could be pulling a House of Cards, there is some indication but no clear evidence.

Since it isn't clear whether he's actually anti-establishment or not, and he has some major policy problems, I don't support him. I don't allow myself to be tricked into voting for people like that.

Unite against Trump? Yeah that was the plan Mitt Romney said to broker the convention. When that plan failed plan B would be to have Ted Cruz win on the first ballot with Kasich, when that plan fails they will change the rules. Trump won't get the nomination from the RNC but they will play nice to him so they don't alienate his supporters. Watch them hang him before the nomination, get people to hate him before the convention. They will be doing us a favor by not nominating Trump we will be thinking.

[Origanalist]

At this point is there a reason to care? Show your displeasure by voting outside of the two parties.

[nikcers]

At this point is there a reason to care? Show your displeasure by voting outside of the two parties.

Third world parties don't have the campaign financing to compete with first world parties . We need to abolish political parties all together because they are a farce we need a president beholden to no party- Republican or Democrat We will go to Saudi Arabia soon anyways, gotta fix the oil prices. They probably justify it by thinking a crashing economy would cost more lives then another middle east war.

[nikcers]

Ya I know, Trump could just be helping Clinton get elected... there's no solid evidence for that, but I admit it is entirely possible.

I dunno I guess maybe Trump deserves the benefit of the doubt. Why hasn't Trump put any sort of serious amounts of his own money into this election? I mean you have his kids who made videos and were surrogates for trump convincing republicans to registers to vote for Trump and they couldn't even vote for Trump. Wouldn't it be even sweeter if Trump could convince all of his republican supporters to stay home because the nomination was stolen from him?

[ChristianAnarchist]

Good riddance to Cruz, now if only the Don would go away. The convention will make for interesting TV but whatever happens (unless they nominate Rand) is pointless since none of these guys have a chance against Billary...

[erowe1]

That just goes to show how mentally lazy most voters are.

[fcreature]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

It might have to do with the fact that allowing the narrative to continue that using caucuses, conventions, and the delegate process is cheating can lead to a very scary outcome. That being the current system replaced with a primary only system in which all delegates are bound by popular vote.

I know there are quite a few people on these forums who would love a direct democracy but you can count me out of that group.

[CPUd]

I think it's a good idea to have a mix of both primaries and caucuses over 6 months. The party's attempt to streamline the process has led to the caucus states having a bit more weight than in 2012. The candidate who wins the nomination should be able to win both types of contests; as you can see we have 2 shit GOP candidates now because one can win primaries and the other can win caucuses.

[hells_unicorn]

It might have to do with the fact that allowing the narrative to continue that using caucuses, conventions, and the delegate process is cheating can lead to a very scary outcome. That being the current system replaced with a primary only system in which all delegates are bound by popular vote.

I know there are quite a few people on these forums who would love a direct democracy but you can count me out of that group.

Personally I'd favor eliminating all primaries and having only caucuses, but then again, I couldn't care less who wins at this point. Having said that, I think I'd take a slightly greater degree of satisfaction in seeing Cruz not only lose the nomination, but his entire political career. I'm all but convinced that he's going to take 3rd place in Pennsylvania.

[CPUd]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?

I mean, maybe this is all a show and Trump is establishment too, but if so like I've said they are doing a pretty good job making him look anti-establishment and there doesn't seem to be any solid evidence either way at this point.




Cruz might lose harder than Trump, though, despite the current polling.. Too many people still don't realize how evangelical he is, and that really turns off a lot of people. Not to mention he is way more sleazy than Trump. I have a progressive friend who was actually paying attention to the GOP debates and started liking Trump a lot more once he started debating foreign policy more in some of those later debates - he would never go for Cruz, or Trump for that matter, but he definitely prefers Trump at this point. I think he has broader appeal in a general election bid.

Don't be so quick to discount Cruz's wins, they weren't just handed to him. His campaign is doing the exact same thing as Ron 2012 and what Rand 2016 would have done, if they had $150M to work with. If "GOPe" means state GOP leadership, then yes, he's getting support from some of them, but others are endorsing Trump or staying neutral- about the same as what happens during any primary season.

I agree either of these candidates are going to get slaughtered in the general election, and there's nothing they can do to change that.

[CPUd]

Personally I'd favor eliminating all primaries and having only caucuses, but then again, I couldn't care less who wins at this point. Having said that, I think I'd take a slightly greater degree of satisfaction in seeing Cruz not only lose the nomination, but his entire political career. I'm all but convinced that he's going to take 3rd place in Pennsylvania.

He won't win the popular vote in PA, so Trump or Kasich will get those 17 delegates. Ironically, a lot the same people voting for Trump are going to be electing the other 54 Cruz supporting delegates from that same ballot.

[hells_unicorn]

He won't win the popular vote in PA, so Trump or Kasich will get those 17 delegates. Ironically, a lot the same people voting for Trump are going to be electing the other 54 Cruz supporting delegates from that same ballot.

Not necessarily, the committeeman in my polling place is a Trump supporter and he'll be handing out sample ballots to everyone voting. Whether Trump, Kasich or Cruz gets those 54 delegates hinges entirely on whether the GOP's local committeeman or his/her proxies supports a particular slate of delegates. Cruz is not well liked by the party in this state, and neither is the Tea Party for that matter, who are seen as having lost a golden opportunity to dethrone Bob Casey Jr. in 2012.

[CPUd]

Not necessarily, the committeeman in my polling place is a Trump supporter and he'll be handing out sample ballots to everyone voting. Whether Trump, Kasich or Cruz gets those 54 delegates hinges entirely on whether the GOP's local committeeman or his/her proxies supports a particular slate of delegates. Cruz is not well liked by the party in this state, and neither is the Tea Party for that matter, who are seen as having lost a golden opportunity to dethrone Bob Casey Jr. in 2012.

What CD are you in?

[hells_unicorn]

What CD are you in?

I'm in Mike Fitzpatrick's district, Congressional District 8.

[misterx]

Ya it amazes me how many people around here have been carrying water for Cruz and GOPe recently over the Colorado BS... It wasn't like Cruz pulled it off because of his amazing grassroots effort, it was because the GOPe did it for him.. why should we be rooting for that?


Exactly. Ron Paul had a better delegate game than Cruz, but far less success because the establishment was working against him.

[RandallFan]

The thing you are missing here I think is that the general election demographics are completely different than the primary demographics... Completely different.



Im arguing that Cruz's tactics were stupid in terms of winning the primary or being able to flip 400 delegates on a second vote and Trump's ongoing landslides prove that. At best his taunting has kept Trump & Cruz flat and Kasich has gained.

Secondly, there's not much evidence that the neocon and Religious right people at the local GOP level who pick anti Trump delegates can come up with a better alternative (to Trump) at this point in terms of good general election performance.

If Cruz can only get 15% of Florida or 15% of Ohio GOP voters he could be even worse than Trump in a general election where he is hit on entitlements and war mongering.

[CPUd]

Exactly. Ron Paul had a better delegate game than Cruz, but far less success because the establishment was working against him.

Ron 2012 had better grassroots organization than what Cruz has now, but the official campaign is doing more in the way of ground support than Ron 2012 ever did. There were several states that could have been won in 2012 if they had campaign support. And in places like CO, VA, OK, the campaign was actively working against the grassroots (whether intentional or not).

[LibertyEagle]

Ron 2012 had better grassroots organization than what Cruz has now, but the official campaign is doing more in the way of ground support than Ron 2012 ever did. There were several states that could have been won in 2012 if they had campaign support. And in places like CO, VA, OK, the campaign was actively working against the grassroots (whether intentional or not).

You have it backwards. In successful campaigns, the grassroots take their lead from the campaign. They do not work against it.

[hells_unicorn]

Ron 2012 had better grassroots organization than what Cruz has now, but the official campaign is doing more in the way of ground support than Ron 2012 ever did. There were several states that could have been won in 2012 if they had campaign support. And in places like CO, VA, OK, the campaign was actively working against the grassroots (whether intentional or not).

The grassroots did a disproportionate amount of whining about how much they didn't like Jesse Benton personally compared to what they did that was constructive. The official campaign was quashed in large part because, whether intentional or not, the grassroots helped the establishment do their job. This same inane character of the "grassroots" was echoed in how little they supported Rand because they were so butt-hurt over him endorsing Romney. Me thinks the "Liberty Movement" is its own worse enemy at the grassroots level and makes the GOP establishment's job far too easy.

[nobody's_hero]

As someone who was a delegate for RP in 2012 and only confirmed my suspicion that the delegate strategy was a hail-mary play in a snow-storm with a lead football, let me say that if you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority.


In 2012, we essentially blitzed the caucuses and conventions, showed up temporarily with greater numbers, managed to piss off more people than we won over, and got stomped in half when they ran back and told their friends that "fringe nutters" had tried to take over the party and more people were needed to kick them back out. And that's exactly what happened. We never had the numbers to pull off a party take-over, and let's be realistic, we still don't.

Now it's 2016 and Cruz appears to be using the same tactic: A temporary delegate blitz to stun his opponents, and a beachhead landing that he may not even be able to hold before they dump him back into the ocean during the convention. For better or worse, it won't last.

[hells_unicorn]

As someone who was a delegate for RP in 2012 and only confirmed my suspicion that the delegate strategy was a hail-mary play in a snow-storm with a lead football, let me say that if you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority.


In 2012, we essentially blitzed the caucuses and conventions, showed up temporarily with greater numbers, managed to piss off more people than we won over, and got stomped in half when they ran back and told their friends that "fringe nutters" had tried to take over the party and more people were needed to kick them back out. And that's exactly what happened. We never had the numbers to pull off a party take-over, and let's be realistic, we still don't.

Now it's 2016 and Cruz appears to be using the same tactic: A temporary delegate blitz to stun his opponents, and a beachhead landing that he may not even be able to hold before they dump him back into the ocean during the convention. For better or worse, it won't last.

On a national level, particularly in presidential elections, ours is a movement that still isn't ready for prime time. We need to focus more on congress and state-wide offices and work our way up, and we also need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot when we get somebody who is mostly on our side like Rand Paul.

[nikcers]

As someone who was a delegate for RP in 2012 and only confirmed my suspicion that the delegate strategy was a hail-mary play in a snow-storm with a lead football, let me say that if you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority.


In 2012, we essentially blitzed the caucuses and conventions, showed up temporarily with greater numbers, managed to piss off more people than we won over, and got stomped in half when they ran back and told their friends that "fringe nutters" had tried to take over the party and more people were needed to kick them back out. And that's exactly what happened. We never had the numbers to pull off a party take-over, and let's be realistic, we still don't.

Now it's 2016 and Cruz appears to be using the same tactic: A temporary delegate blitz to stun his opponents, and a beachhead landing that he may not even be able to hold before they dump him back into the ocean during the convention. For better or worse, it won't last.

Let's start off with the difference between 2012-2016, in 2012 Ron Paul threatened the establishment republicans. Otherwise they would not of changed the rules. In 2016 Ted Cruz ran a similar campaign strategy but, he doesn't threaten the establishment and they will not change the rules. I'm not going to even start on the fact that Trump is a democrat, so the RNC won't nominate him.

[CPUd]

Let's start off with the difference between 2012-2016, in 2012 Ron Paul threatened the establishment republicans. Otherwise they would not of changed the rules. In 2016 Ted Cruz ran a similar campaign strategy but, he doesn't threaten the establishment and they will not change the rules. I'm not going to even start on the fact that Trump is a democrat, so the RNC won't nominate him.

Lost in his home district. Tiny hands. Sad!

[nobody's_hero]

Let's start off with the difference between 2012-2016, in 2012 Ron Paul threatened the establishment republicans. Otherwise they would not of changed the rules. In 2016 Ted Cruz ran a similar campaign strategy but, he doesn't threaten the establishment and they will not change the rules. I'm not going to even start on the fact that Trump is a democrat, so the RNC won't nominate him.

And . . . again. If you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority. Maybe if we'd had the majority in 2012 they wouldn't have been able to change the rules? Instead they stamped us out without a whimper.

In any case, what Cruz is attempting to do with the delegate blitz won't last. It's a desperate scheme to try to capture the crown and just as we did in 2012, he's gonna make more enemies than converts with the strategy. I'm just glad the establishment is on the outside-looking-in this time.

[CPUd]

And . . . again. If you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority. Maybe if we'd had the majority in 2012 they wouldn't have been able to change the rules? Instead they stamped us out without a whimper.

In any case, what Cruz is attempting to do with the delegate blitz won't last. It's a desperate scheme to try to capture the crown and just as we did in 2012, he's gonna make more enemies than converts with the strategy. I'm just glad the establishment is on the outside-looking-in this time.

What Cruz is doing is not desperate, it takes several years of planning to do what his campaign is doing now.

[nikcers]

What Cruz is doing is not desperate, it takes several years of planning to do what his campaign is doing now.

Now that i know the delegate rules so well I understand why there were people in here trying to woo Rand supporters to Trump only as a second choice. They were going after Paul delegates from the bat. Trump has been trying to make this a brokered convention from the start. He wants to blow up the convention and piss off the republican base so they don't vote in the general.

[nikcers]

And . . . again. If you don't have the majority, you don't have the majority. Maybe if we'd had the majority in 2012 they wouldn't have been able to change the rules? Instead they stamped us out without a whimper.

In any case, what Cruz is attempting to do with the delegate blitz won't last. It's a desperate scheme to try to capture the crown and just as we did in 2012, he's gonna make more enemies than converts with the strategy. I'm just glad the establishment is on the outside-looking-in this time.

Cruz won't win, that's the funny part. The RNC will probably make Cruz vice president or supreme court. The RNC is going to nominate someone that no one is even talking about like Kasich. They are going to create a Kasich surge LOL. They will say he will save us all from Clinton and Trump and he will do the bidding of the old money.

[CPUd]

I'm in Mike Fitzpatrick's district, Congressional District 8.

Out of 7 I know of in CD8:

2- Trump first ballot
1- Cruz first ballot
4- District winner, Kasich 2nd ballot

[Jan2017]

The big story in Pennsylvania isn’t what happens on Tuesday, but what happens after Tuesday.
Only the 17 delegates awarded to the statewide winner will be bound to a candidate — probably Trump

Even if a delegate currently announces plans to vote for a particular candidate at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland,
nothing binds that decision.
Many of the delegates have said they will vote for the candidate who wins their district, while others have pledged to back the statewide winner.
That potentially puts Trump in a very strong position
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-at-stake-for-republicans-in-the-northeast-primaries/

[hells_unicorn]

Out of 7 I know of in CD8:

2- Trump first ballot
1- Cruz first ballot
4- District winner, Kasich 2nd ballot

And tell me, out of the 5 states that Trump utterly destroyed Kasich and Cruz in this evening, which ones will Kasich win on the 2nd ballot?

This thing is over, Cruz and Kasich kicking against the pricks not withstanding. Vote for Hillary again if it feels good, because that's the only place an "anyone but Trump" mentality will end up taking you.

[enhanced_deficit]

Current Drudge headline:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChBDMPnVEAA-8qW.jpg
ELIMINA (http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/04/official-ted-cruz-mathematically-eliminated-gop-race/)TED


http://www.drudgereport.com/i/logo9.gif

[openfire]

http://16004-presscdn-0-50.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/eliminated-cruz-575x522.jpg

[nikcers]

Current Drudge headline:

Do think the the headline might be designed to get people who support Cruz to pick Kasich as their second choice?

[CPUd]

And tell me, out of the 5 states that Trump utterly destroyed Kasich and Cruz in this evening, which ones will Kasich win on the 2nd ballot?

This thing is over, Cruz and Kasich kicking against the pricks not withstanding. Vote for Hillary again if it feels good, because that's the only place an "anyone but Trump" mentality will end up taking you.

False choice. Opposing one candidate does not imply support for another.

Show me an endorsement from Mike Pence, a win in IN, CA and I'd be more inclined to call it.

[nikcers]

It's like blackjack, if you win against the house they kick you out, take your chips and accuse you of delegate courting. The news really wants you to believe that the votes count, and the primaries count, but really only those that count, count.

[hells_unicorn]

False choice. Opposing one candidate does not imply support for another.

Show me an endorsement from Mike Pence, a win in IN, CA and I'd be more inclined to call it.

Negative rep for copying and pasting the same stupid response that you've used in the past 5 or 6 conversations, I don't suffer the opinions of zombies and cyborgs. Give it another couple weeks then, it's your time to waste.

[CPUd]

Negative rep for copying and pasting the same stupid response that you've used in the past 5 or 6 conversations, I don't suffer the opinions of zombies and cyborgs. Give it another couple weeks then, it's your time to waste.

It is because you and 1 or 2 others keep coming in here attacking people who still want to discuss the primary race, which is still very much active. If you don't want to read or participate in those discussions, then stay the fuck out of the threads. It's really that simple.

[erowe1]

And tell me, out of the 5 states that Trump utterly destroyed Kasich and Cruz in this evening, which ones will Kasich win on the 2nd ballot?

This thing is over, Cruz and Kasich kicking against the pricks not withstanding. Vote for Hillary again if it feels good, because that's the only place an "anyone but Trump" mentality will end up taking you.

I don't see why it's over. Trump has to get 1,237, and he's not ensured that yet.

[CPUd]

I don't see why it's over. Trump has to get 1,237, and he's not ensured that yet.

He wants people to stop posting about it for some strange reason. Maybe post more Trump videos.