RP Cracks 3% on intrade (Republican nomination odds)

[csen]

You could tell from the price action in recent days that Ron Paul was trending higher and threatening to break above 3%, and it's finally done so today:

http://www.intrade.com/ (click on 2008 US Election on the left hand side)

Also, for those of you familiar with markets, there are massive quantities of stored bids (almost 3000 lots) between 2.5% and 3.0%, so a few "sellers" wouldn't impact the market much. On the other hand, there aren't many sellers (only 250 lots) between 3% and 4%, so a buying spurt could take these odds much higher quickly, especially depending upon the Iowa turnout tomorrow.

This is my favorite "poll" because it's completely free-market driven where only dollars of odds takers matter. With RP's odds at 0.3% before the NH debate, one can objectively say that the market thinks RP has a 10x greater chance of becoming the Republican nominee now than it did two months ago, which is pretty crazy. Looking at the competition, McCain has basically fallen off the map this year (from 50% to 6%), Romney has stalled at 20% since Fred Thompson essentially declared, and Giuliani is slowly losing support to Thompson. Dr. Paul is clearly the #5 candidate on the Republican side on this measure, and momentum is pointing to him passing McCain in the next several weeks.

[nayjevin]

Intrade indeed is an accurate representation of 'money where the mouth is'

[american.swan]

You could tell from the price action in recent days that Ron Paul was trending higher and threatening to break above 3%, and it's finally done so today:

http://www.intrade.com/ (click on 2008 US Election on the left hand side)

Also, for those of you familiar with markets, there are massive quantities of stored bids (almost 3000 lots) between 2.5% and 3.0%, so a few "sellers" wouldn't impact the market much. On the other hand, there aren't many sellers (only 250 lots) between 3% and 4%, so a buying spurt could take these odds much higher quickly, especially depending upon the Iowa turnout tomorrow.

This is my favorite "poll" because it's completely free-market driven where only dollars of odds takers matter. With RP's odds at 0.3% before the NH debate, one can objectively say that the market thinks RP has a 10x greater chance of becoming the Republican nominee now than it did two months ago, which is pretty crazy. Looking at the competition, McCain has basically fallen off the map this year (from 50% to 6%), Romney has stalled at 20% since Fred Thompson essentially declared, and Giuliani is slowly losing support to Thompson. Dr. Paul is clearly the #5 candidate on the Republican side on this measure, and momentum is pointing to him passing McCain in the next several weeks.

This would be great if more people were actually involved in the buying and selling. I get the impression few take part in this sort of thing, so I don't buy it.

[csen]

This would be great if more people were actually involved in the buying and selling. I get the impression few take part in this sort of thing, so I don't buy it.

I work on Wall Street and I can tell you that the major investment banks cited intrade odds in 2006 in their predictions of which party would win the House and Senate. There are definitely many categories on the site which aren't very liquid and are therefore less relevant, but you'd be surprised at how many people trade and watch the numbers for at least the Repub and Dem nominees to get a feel for where the polls really stand. It's obviously not a perfect gauge but I challenge you to find anything better.

[buffalokid777]

Is this site on the up and up?

I just tried to deposit some cash and was denied....and I have cash in the account

I feel like I'm gonna have to watch my card like a hawk for unauthorized charges now for months....

[nayjevin]

Is this site on the up and up?

oh my gosh yes. they are reputable.