11.5% will win New Hampshire

[RonPaulCult]

Let me start by saying I am no math whiz. Somebody that didn't get a D in college level stats should check my math. With that said...

The population of New Hampshire (as of 2006) was 1,314,895

23.1% of the population is under 18 (or was as of 2005)

Therefore roughly 1,012,470 NH residents are of voting age

In 2000 115,490 casted a vote for John McCain who won the republican primary (with 49% of the votes)

Using those numbers we would need just 11.5% of the voting age population to cast a vote for Ron Paul in order to win.

If our assumption is right - that the vast majority of Ron Paul supporters will show up to vote - then we should be able to do quite well in this state (and all of the rest)

We are polling at around 8% in the state right now.

And let's never forget that 70% of the nation's population opposes the war.

If just 15% of the population is voting informed we SHOULD WIN!!!!

Thoughts?

[honkywill]

If he is going to win anywhere it's going to be New Hampshire. And he better win it.

[itsnobody]

Yeah we've got NH, plus with that blimp it'll be great

[moglesb1]

agreed ... that's what i keep telling people ... we (ron paul fans) are the ones who want it the most ... so we are all definitely voting ... and great use of the math skills :)

[Chester Copperpot]

Ive said it before and ill say it again.. Ron Paul support in any state at 10% is a good shot at winning the state.. at 15% it is definite

[ronpaulyourmom]

RonPaulCult, there's just one big problem my friend.

The polls call about 1000 people to end up with a sample size of 400 (give or take). They weed out people who are likely not to vote. They call somebody up and ask, "do you intend to vote in a primary" and if the person says yes, the poll continues onward. The 8% isn't dealing with the general population, it's dealing with people who have indicated willingness to vote in the primaries.

That said, the polls are still very flawed. I think we need a bit more than 11.5% to win, but your points are valid and we're gonna make this happen. :)

[jgmaynard]

I recently came up with similar numbers, except I was looking at what if the polls are right? (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=45051)

JM

[murrayrothbard]

You definitely have to account for the "likely to actually vote" factor. Assuming RP supporters will have an abnormally high turnout rate vs the supporters of the "top-tier", RP can EASILY win.

[daviddee]

...

[Voluntaryist]

Pray for a blizzard or Arctic cold front affecting Southern New Hampshire (Ex-Massholes). RP people will get to the polls... The others will stay home.

No kidding. Rabid dogs that shoot bees out of their mouths could NOT STOP RON PAUL SUPPORTERS from voting in the primaries. :cool: