View Full Version : 2016 GOP Delegate Thunderdome
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/rnc-rules-insiders-speak-out-contested-convention-n541146
What I got from the linked report is that the RNC Rule Committee has 56 members. The following named members stated these positions:
Steve Frias (R.I.) - favors allowing ballot nominations for anyone delegates want (ie. Romney/Ryan)
Curly Haugland - favors allowing ballot nominations for anyone that has earned a delegate in a primary/caucus
Ada Fisher - Team Haugland
Zori Fonalledas - favors delegates having options to change their minds if no one wins on bound votes
Henry Barbour - similar to Zori Fonalledas
Morton Blackwell - favors change, but I can't find details his exact position
Randy Evans - favors no rules change (keep 8 state req)
There were a couple of unnamed members quoted in the article, but I didn't count them because they could be made up for all I know.
[mod note] split thread created per user request
Shades of 2012. Cruz's ground game winning delegates in Louisiana out of proportion to the primary vote. Delegates not named, but it appears that Louisiana's two delegates for the RNC rules committee are going to be Cruz delegates, so I would expect them to be in favor of assuring rule 40 limits ballot access to Trump and Cruz (and no one else).
...
Mr. Cruz’s supporters also seized five of Louisiana’s six slots on the three powerful committees that will write the rules and platform at the Republican National Convention ...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ted-cruz-gains-in-louisiana-after-loss-there-to-donald-trump-1458861959
(if you don't have a WSJ subscription, search for "Ted Cruz Gains in Louisiana After Loss There to Donald Trump" in Google and click on the wsj link to read the full article)
Shades of 2012. Cruz's ground game winning delegates in Louisiana out of proportion to the primary vote. Delegates not named, but it appears that Louisiana's two delegates for the RNC rules committee are going to be Cruz delegates, so I would expect them to be in favor of assuring rule 40 limits ballot access to Trump and Cruz (and no one else).
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ted-cruz-gains-in-louisiana-after-loss-there-to-donald-trump-1458861959
(if you don't have a WSJ subscription, search for "Ted Cruz Gains in Louisiana After Loss There to Donald Trump" in Google and click on the wsj link to read the full article)
Yep, they took a bunch in GA as well, and are in position to take those seats in AZ next month. If Trump doesn't win on the first ballot, he's pretty much done for.
So, apparently the folks I identified in post 59 were either on the rules committee in 2012 or just national committeemen/women. They may or may not be on the rules committee in 2016. Here are four peeps (so far) that definitely are on the rules committee for 2016:
...
Wheeler and the three other early appointees to the panel hail from Louisiana and South Dakota. Eventually, the committee will include a man and a woman from every state and U.S. territory — a total of 112 people. But interviews with the four members, as well as two veteran Republicans who hope to join the panel, provide an early window into the factors that could drive the committee’s decision-making.
...
“We don't want to give the impression that we are leaning one way or the other in support or trying to hold somebody else back,” said Sandye Kading, the other South Dakota delegate on the rules committee.
“Fundamentally, I hope we keep the way we’re doing it,” said Ross Little, Jr., a rules committee member from Louisiana. “I’m not looking for a gigantic change.”
But all four said they were open to changes to the eight-state threshold to be more inclusive. It was adopted in a year when Romney was already the presumptive nominee and meant to prevent uncomfortable optics of forcing him to share the stage with Paul, beloved of the libertarian grassroots.
“They ambushed us,” said Gwen Bowen, the other Louisiana rules committee appointee, referring to the Romney backers who imposed the rule in 2012. Bowen, a devout Cruz supporter, will be on the panel for her fourth straight convention. She said she’s against the eight-state rule, but hasn’t decided what, if anything, should take its place. Bowen emphasized that she hasn’t coordinated any potential rule changes with the Cruz campaign.
Members of the rules panel are aware that any changes to the process that lower barriers for Trump’s competitors — even adjustments to the eight-state rule — could be seen as an affront to the frontrunner.
“Any proposed change will be viewed as to which candidates would be helped and which candidates would be hurt. It’s a classic example of changing the rules in the middle of the game,” said Morton Blackwell, a veteran Republican national committeeman from Virginia who is considering seeking appointment to the rules panel this year. “It would be widely and correctly viewed as that outrageous power grab.”
Blackwell, too, is a Cruz supporter. He has pushed previously to weaken the eight-state threshold, which he opposes, but says now it may be too late to change without risking a backlash.
Trump has already groused about Cruz’s efforts to elect his supporters as delegates to the national convention, a dynamic that could create challenges for Trump on the rules committee, as well as on the floor of the convention, if he’s unable to secure the nomination beforehand. Though he wants Cruz to emerge as the party’s nominee, Blackwell said he hopes it’s not because of any manipulation of the rules.
“If Cruz tries to change the rules, I would advise him strongly not to do it,” Blackwell added. “I think it would not be in the best interest of the party. We’ve got to — in order to attract people to the party — we’ve got to show that we operate fairly.”
In addition, any sudden rules changes could create a public relations headache for the committee, should Trump rebel against its efforts.
“I’m sure that Mr. Trump would rail against it because anybody who’s running for president is going to use whatever means they have,” Wheeler said. He added that he’s guided by the understanding that “any change we make in the rules is going to have different ramifications on how the party comes out in the end, how unified the party is, how people view the party.”
Veteran national Republican committeeman Curly Haugland is the lone exception to the light-touch approach. He was on the Rules Committee in 2012 and said he intends to pursue a slot this year as well.
...
Kading said that despite her qualms with the eight-state rule, she intends to take most of her cues from Blackwell, who has attended every convention since 1964.
“Right now, I don’t want the scandal of a [sweeping] change in the rules,” Blackwell said. “Whomever we nominate will be more likely to win if we haven’t had a significant element in the party claiming that the rules have been changed to favor one candidate or oppose one candidate.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/republican-convention-rules-trump-cruz-221355
Updated list:
Steve Frias (R.I.) [RNC] - favors allowing ballot nominations for anyone delegates want (ie. Romney/Ryan)
Curly Haugland (N.D.) [RNC] - favors allowing ballot nominations for anyone that has earned a delegate in a primary/caucus
Ada Fisher (N.C.) [RNC] - Team Haugland
Zori Fonalledas (P.R.) [RNC] - favors delegates having options to change their minds if no one wins on bound votes
Henry Barbour (MS) [RNC] - similar to Zori Fonalledas
Morton Blackwell (VI) [RNC] - favors change - exact position unspecified (Cruz supporter)
Peter Feaman (FL) [RNC] - favors changing 8 state requirement back to 5 states
David Wheeler (S.D.) [2016] - favors change - exact position unspecified
Sandye Kading (S.D.) [2016]- favors change - exact position unspecified (follows Blackwell's lead)
Ross Little, Jr. (LA) [2016] - favors change - exact position unspecified (Cruz supporter)
Gwen Bowen (LA) [2016] - favors change - exact position unspecified (Cruz supporter)
Toni Anne Dashielle (TX) [RNC] - no position reported but concerned about public perception of changing rules "to steal the nomination". Based upon her comments at my Senate District convention, I think it's safe to say she does not favor drastic change (ie. allowing a Romney/Ryan to be on the ballot).
Steve Scheffler (IA) [RNC] - no position reported but concerned about public perception of changing rules
Randy Evans (GA) [RNC] - favors no rules change (keep 8 state req)
Diana Orrock (NV) [RNC] - favors no change (Trump supporter)
P.S. The NBC news report I referenced in post #59 was really poorly done.
According to new interviews with more than a third of the 56 members of the RNC Rules Committee, Some basic facts wrong. Rules committee gets 2 members - one man, one woman each - from each of 56 territories for a total committee size of 112 people, not 56. Also, Rules Committee members for the 2016 convention are not determined yet. They likely are referring to folks who were seated on the 2012 rules committee and they may or may not be seated on the committee for 2016.
Well now (bold emphasis mine):
... how the rules work in practice.
First, delegates can vote for a candidate who does not qualify and has not been nominated. In fact, some delegates will be bound to vote for a candidate who does not qualify. The convention, if it follows precedents, will allow -- but not officially tabulate -- those votes. The number needed to win is still a majority of the total number of delegates -- 1,237 votes is the threshold in 2016. So narrowing the official choices down to two candidates does not ensure that someone will win on the first ballot.
In other words, we could get a first ballot that looks like this: Trump 1,150, Cruz 1,000, John Kasich 180, Marco Rubio 100, along with a smattering of other candidates. The official tally would only include Trump and Cruz -- and since neither would have hit 1,237, at least one more ballot would be required.
On subsequent ballots, new candidates can qualify for official nomination if they can provide evidence that they’ve cleared the eight-state standard. Unless the rule changes, it wouldn’t bar a third (or fourth, or fifth) candidate from being nominated -- as long as he or she can demonstrate sufficient support.
So any candidate who actually has the votes will be able to win under the 2012 version of Rule 40(b).
...
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-04/republican-convention-rules-will-matter-if-they-change
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA
~~~
I caught a little bit of Hannity on Fox News last night (watching election results for WI - I don't normally watch that show). Laura Ingraham mentioned something about the RNC members meeting last night with GOP lobbyists and insiders to discuss / plan the execution of an open convention{1}. She raised the concern that they would be fine with disenfranchising Cruz and Trump supporters if they get to maintain the reins of control.{2}
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2SAVZMvBug
{1} starting at 1:15 mark
{2} starting at 2:40 mark
Not sure i agree with her, but if she's right about the meeting and there isn't any transparency (ie. public record of it), that would be troubling IMO.
~~~
So, how many "stealth Ron Paul delegates" we got in 2016? /ducks
... Laura Ingraham mentioned something about the RNC members meeting last night with GOP lobbyists and insiders ...
Confirmed:
Top officials at the Republican National Committee explained the intricacies of a contested convention Tuesday afternoon to roughly two dozen veteran GOP operatives.
The meeting at the RNC's Capitol Hill headquarters included discussion about bound delegates and how the party will organize the timing of multiple rounds of balloting, according to operatives who attended.
RNC officials made the case that there is plenty of time built in during the convention to strategize between ballots, according to one attendee.
Leading the session were Sean Spicer, the party's senior strategist; Katie Walsh, the RNC chief of staff; and John Phillippe, the chief counsel.
Spicer did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The operatives in attendance included Trent Duffy, former Minnesota Rep. Vin Weber, Matt Schlapp, Ron Bonjean, Phil Musser, Doug Heye and Ryan Williams.
...
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/republicans-contested-convention-221600
More on the secret meeting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q400XCkSU8A
Doug Heye claimed all three campaigns were invited to the "off-the-record" meeting. Seems odd that none of them sent anyone. You'd think that might be something they would have had a vested interested in participation.
More on the secret meeting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q400XCkSU8A
Doug Heye claimed all three campaigns were invited to the "off-the-record" meeting. Seems odd that none of them sent anyone. You'd think that might be something they would have had a vested interested in participation.
What they have been calling "secret meetings" are monthly RNC breakfasts where among other things, the topic does come up.
What they have been calling "secret meetings" are monthly RNC breakfasts ...
See politico report in my last post. This was an afternoon meeting at RNC HQ.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-cruz-work-block-kasich-ballot-open-convention-n549996
tl;dr key points: Trump, cruz, Kasich campaigns fighting to get their delegates on Rules Committee Trump, Cruz campaigns want to prevent Kasich from qualifying for first ballot Might actually be to Trump's advantage to have Kasich qualify and split Cruz' delegate support Even if Rule 40b doesn't change, Kasich camp looking to get written support from 8 states to be placed on ballot in later (2nd/3rd) rounds
P.S. Thanks mods for splitting these posts from the thread where I originally posted them.
More names on the ballot would favor Trump, but only temporarily. It made him the front runner for most of the primary season, and would do the same at the RNC for a couple ballots at least. The problem is he won't ever be able to get a majority like that, since the majority of delegates there will not want him to be the nominee.
SpiritOf1776_J4
04-08-2016, 03:00 PM
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/rnc-rules-insiders-speak-out-contested-convention-n541146
What I got from the linked report is that the RNC Rule Committee has 56 members. The following named members stated these positions:
Steve Frias (R.I.) - favors allowing ballot nominations for anyone delegates want (ie. Romney/Ryan)
Curly Haugland - favors allowing ballot nominations for anyone that has earned a delegate in a primary/caucus
Ada Fisher - Team Haugland
Zori Fonalledas - favors delegates having options to change their minds if no one wins on bound votes
Henry Barbour - similar to Zori Fonalledas
Morton Blackwell - favors change, but I can't find details his exact position
Randy Evans - favors no rules change (keep 8 state req)
There were a couple of unnamed members quoted in the article, but I didn't count them because they could be made up for all I know.
[mod note] split thread created per user request
Quick, forward it to Roger Stone, and he can create a sensational news story based on "I once worked for Trump", and "he's a deep insider".
On second thought, I was just joking. Don't do that.
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