OpinionSavvy Iowa poll 1/29-1/30 - Rand 8.6%

[Crashland]

OpinionSavvy appears to be a legit polling company, although not long established

As reported by Newsmax:
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/trump-cruz-rubio-dead-heat/2016/01/31/id/712079/

Trump 20.1%
Cruz 19.4%
Rubio 18.6%
Carson 9.0%
Paul 8.6%
Bush 4.9%
Huckabee 4.4%
Kasich 4.0%
Fiorina 3.8%
Christie 3.0%
Undecided 2.2%
Santorum 2.1%


Sample size is 887 and margin of error = 3.2%
Release: http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/01/31/2851/
Polling methodology and crosstabs: http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Iowa-1.30.15.pdf

[MarcusI]

1st place for Paul in that poll amongst 18-29 year olds, almost 1st amongst 30-44 year old, ridiculously low above that age. Lets hope this year there will be a massive youth turnout....

[groverblue]

Man, I hope we crush it tomorrow and come in first with a 5%+ lead.

[Crashland]

This poll I think will be closer to the actual results. If Rand can finish above Carson, or break into double digits then he will have some momentum. Anything better than that would be quite a miracle but let's wait and see! Come on college students!

[laissez faire]

Excellent find, great upward movement for Rand. I don't see the firm here...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

..but it appears to be a very comprehensive study.

Thanks.

[MCJ62]

I'm still baffled by Carson's support.

[MarcusI]

I'm still baffled by Carson's support.

Considering all the other candidates, I'm more baffled that they have support at all.... Carson at least seems to be a nice person.

[Rudeman]

Biggest key in the poll.

via landline Rand got 1.7%
via mobile Rand got 26.5%


even for 2nd choice:
via landline Rand got 5.8%
via mobile Rand got 17.6%

[Crashland]

Also interesting - 31.6% of Rand Paul supporters chose Rand Paul as their second choice, the highest percentage of any candidate where they picked the same person :-P

[Sentinelrv]

How much weight did they give to mobile users in this poll? If it's small then Rand could be doing even better in reality.

[Crashland]

Massive age gap. In this poll, 92% of Rand's supporters are under age 45.

[hells_unicorn]

Massive age gap. In this poll, 92% of Rand's supporters are under age 45.

That's about the cut-off point for people who don't get their information spoon-fed to them by talk radio and the idiot box. My father uses the internet occasionally, but never for his news, he's always onto some dope on talk radio or listening to what Fox News has to say.


Biggest key in the poll.

via landline Rand got 1.7%
via mobile Rand got 26.5%


even for 2nd choice:
via landline Rand got 5.8%
via mobile Rand got 17.6%

Most landline people get their news from television or radio, I'm actually surprised that Rand's numbers for 2nd choice via landline were that high. It's interesting to note that this poll was conducted prior to Cruz's blunder with that mailer, so we may end up with even better numbers and Cruz will probably be hurting more.

[Dianne]

Man, I hope we crush it tomorrow and come in first with a 5%+ lead.

Me too, but the weather not going to be worth a shit.. Let's hope the young people get out.

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/kbbaqJL.png

http://i.imgur.com/HuqG7JI.png

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/C3JzLiA.png

[SovereignMN]

Also interesting is this poll threw out all repondents that will "probably" attend or didn't know for certain where their caucus was. For the latter, I could see a lot of students being thrown out of the sample.

[ds21089]

http://i.imgur.com/C3JzLiA.png

I dont get the youth appeal to Rubio..

[hells_unicorn]

On the topic of this poll:

I'm not familiar with this polling company, but NewsMax is a trusted name in GOP circles and this polling company seems to be doing their homework on how to properly get a sample with a reasonable margin of error. The interesting thing here is that Trump, Cruz and Rubio are all in a statistical tie for 1st place, which means that Trump's lead in other polling data in Iowa has been largely fictitious.

Whether or not Rand comes in 4th place or higher will largely depend on turnout if these numbers have any accuracy, given that they sampled people over 45 to a greater number by 20%, which is less of a discrepancy than the other polls but would not show a massive youth turnout for Rand. It's also interesting to note that Trump's publicity stunt at the last debate didn't go over well in Iowa given that most of the people sampled didn't watch it.

[alucard13mm]

Wow looks like Rand is within strikin distance to get top 3

[Brett85]

I really have no idea what's going to happen at this point. I'm just ready for tomorrow night to finally get here.

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/5N614AV.png

http://imgur.com/tAd6rqK

[eleganz]

Now we see why Rand is so damn confident and that his campaign is setting the expectation for possibly winning the caucus, that is a very large expectation to set.

Keep making calls! Calls is what identified all those potential supporters and calls is what will turn them out to vote.

Stop hoping, start calling!

[puppetmaster]

trump paul 1 and 2.....rubio 3? my prediction....but i hope for a number 1 for paul!!

[Dianne]

Man, if we could just take out Rubio tomorrow night. Rand come in at #3, whooooooooooooohooooooooooooo..... Trump/Cruz/Paul ... That's what I realistically hope for tomorrow night. Rand can take Cruz out, easily after that.

[rich34]

Well if this is correct then what a couple people were saying earlier about Rand being at 9% on the last day of the dmr poll could be accurate. Add in the fact that there was no info/crosstabs released from the dmr poll and it could be highly likely Rand is trending upward going into the caucus. I'd also guess that the pollsters are erring on the side of caution when it comes to young people and cell phone users. This also goes into rand's favor as his current numbers could be at 10%. With a moe of 3% this should put his numbers at anywhere from 7 to 13 percent. Most likely on the top side of that margin of error.

[Crashland]

Hoping for a Cruz collapse more than anything. Rand stands to gain from it if it happens

[Rudeman]

Man, if we could just take out Rubio tomorrow night. Rand come in at #3, whooooooooooooohooooooooooooo..... Trump/Cruz/Paul ... That's what I realistically hope for tomorrow night. Rand can take Cruz out, easily after that.

I'd rather Rand out perform Cruz. If the top 3 was Rand/Trump/Rubio that would be fine because then Rubio is likely the go to establishment/moderate for NH.

If it's Rand/Trump/Cruz, then you're still going to get an establishment/moderate out of NH, which could be Rubio, Bush, Kasich or Christie.

[eleganz]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

[Dianne]

I'd rather Rand out perform Cruz. If the top 3 was Rand/Trump/Rubio that would be fine because then Rubio is likely the go to establishment/moderate for NH.

If it's Rand/Trump/Cruz, then you're still going to get an establishment/moderate out of NH, which could be Rubio, Bush, Kasich or Christie.

I would prefer that too, but I'm trying to be realistic. If we can get Rand into third slot, I will climb Mount Everest next week. Think of it as a horse race. Always keep your horse in reach, but never bring him to the front too quickly. Have him well positioned in the back stretch.

[Dianne]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

Last day of the month. He is waiting for his next Goldman Sachs check.

[CPUd]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

Yes, and someone is full of shit, too. The Cruz camp was saying yesterday they would do whatever it takes to increase the turnout, and tonight Cruz surrogate Steve King says:
693991185094938624

[Crashland]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

A Cruz collapse in Iowa would be the best thing that could possibly happen for Rand. Perfect priming for a Rand surge

[maxoutco]

Last day of the month. He is waiting for his next Goldman Sachs check.

Fix is in, establishment wants Rubio. They're paying everyone else to get out of the way.

[Uriah]

If Rand actually gets 10,000 college students he'll get 8.3% of the vote with students alone based on 120k turnout.

[cornell]

Wow I don't know if I've ever seen such a huge age drop off:

18-29: 22.7%
30-44: 17.9%
45-64: 0.7%
65+: 1.7%

I hate to see 45 and up so low, but if it's any consolation, we are the future at least.

[cornell]

Another interesting tidbit, 86% of Paul supporters in the sample watched the recent debate. Higher than any other candidate, we are clearly the most engaged and aware of the issues of any supporter, although I think anyone reading this forum already knew that.

[Foreigner]

@ 11,6% among people who saw the last debate. Late surge! ;)

[Mike4Freedom]

Wow I don't know if I've ever seen such a huge age drop off:

18-29: 22.7%
30-44: 17.9%
45-64: 0.7%
65+: 1.7%

I hate to see 45 and up so low, but if it's any consolation, we are the future at least.

45 - 64 and 65+ get their news from the TV and talk radio. The younger people more from the internet or close to even. We are the future. I would love if the people that worked at RevolutionPac 2012 would have a nightly news segment on Netflix, look at the popularity of Making a Murderer.

rubio has a crappy ground game. Santorum was able to take advantage of his manufactered surge by having a lot of precinct captains. Rubio and trump will underperform. Ted will be within MOE. The students are the wild card here.

Rand right now is around 9% to 11% most likely. If those 10K students show up he could get almost 20% if turnout is a bit lower due to the large snowstorm. The storm is on the west coast which Ron Paul did not do as good in the West.

Top 3 he can do. If he gets 1st or 2nd, it will be the gamechanger we need!

[LatinsforPaul]

Poll has been added to RCP...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

[luctor-et-emergo]

Rand finishing strong in Iowa would be a major surprise upset.

How can Cruz be so dumb to drop the ball at the very last second.

Simple. He's greedy.

[Liberty74]

Massive age gap. In this poll, 92% of Rand's supporters are under age 45.

It's why Rand is in the back of the pack. As I've said many times and have gotten attacked by some on RPF, it's a fact that the majority of voters in Iowa are old. In 2012, 68% were 45 and up. Ron did okay with that demo but not strong enough to pull out the win. Rand is not doing okay.

To win Iowa you must win the old voters or be very competitive with that demo. It's the playing field whether some like it or not.

All we can hope for is that some of the old voters change their minds today to give Rand a boost. Then let the the student vote carry him over the top.

[luctor-et-emergo]

It's why Rand is in the back of the pack. As I've said many times and have gotten attacked by some on RPF, it's a fact that the majority of voters in Iowa are old. In 2012, 68% were 45 and up. Ron did okay with that demo but not strong enough to pull out the win. Rand is not doing okay.

To win Iowa you must win the old voters or be very competitive with that demo. It's the playing field whether some like it or not.

All we can hope for is that some of the old voters change their minds today to give Rand a boost. Then let the the student vote carry him over the top.

It's true that the 45+ vote is important. However, it's also being split many ways this year around. I think it's really hard to predict what's actually going to happen. There are a gazillion factors.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif?1454330927
NOAA is a pretty decent outfit.

[robmpreston]

Took a quick look at the exit polls from 2012.

Ron Paul got 11% with 65+ and 16% with 45-64

I don't think we need quite that much this time, assuming we get a much bigger 18-44 turnout, but it does show that people that age are willing to vote for somebody like Rand. We just need the younger people to sway them at the caucus meetings.

[luctor-et-emergo]

Took a quick look at the exit polls from 2012.

Ron Paul got 11% with 65+ and 16% with 45-64

I don't think we need quite that much this time, assuming we get a much bigger 18-44 turnout, but it does show that people that age are willing to vote for somebody like Rand. We just need the younger people to sway them at the caucus meetings.


Precinct captains can be vote multipliers. If they can inspire some people who came to the caucus with an open mind, they will have an effect. This could clearly be seen in 2012. I was actually amazed at how many people go to caucuses to listen to what others have to say.

[01000110]

Rand on CNN New Day just now said he's got about 1100 precinct chairs.

[MarcusI]

Checking all the polls, it would be really big if Rand can be in double digits. Considering all the speculation why the polling is wrong, I would say 15% would be a huge surprise and keep Rand massively in the race. Oh boy, Im excited, but I dont want to be too desparate tonight if the average polling are true... but I will be.

[nasaal]

Checking all the polls, it would be really big if Rand can be in double digits. Considering all the speculation why the polling is wrong, I would say 15% would be a huge surprise and keep Rand massively in the race. Oh boy, Im excited, but I dont want to be too desparate tonight if the average polling are true... but I will be.

If he can make it to 10% and 4th place, then it will have been a triumph for him.

[ds21089]

He needs to get at least third place so he can make the debate. The less people in that debate, the more time Rand gets to prove that he is the only logical choice while the others likely shoot themselves in the foot.

[MarcusI]

If he can make it to 10% and 4th place, then it will have been a triumph for him.
Yes thats my opinion as well.

I will just be desparate if its 5% or lower, but I'm 100% optimistic that this wont happen!

[squirl22]

1st place for Paul in that poll amongst 18-29 year olds, almost 1st amongst 30-44 year old, ridiculously low above that age. Lets hope this year there will be a massive youth turnout.

If it snows, the old folks will stay home. So, if Rand has the ground game he claims he has, he can corral the youngsters and cart them to the caucuses.

It's true about the older folks getting their news from tv...Fox, and talk radio. They don't think for themselves at all. I wish Rand would have made some attempt to garner their vote...talking about cutting social security is a sure way not to get their vote. But, talking about how congress has been raiding the trust fund is a good way to talk about it. Wish he would have done it that way when in front of an older audience....and yes, Iowa is white old and rural; it is not representative of the country at all. I think a state like Ohio or PA would make a better first in the nation vote.

[Patrick Henry]

Would love to know how this compares to the other candidates.

Rand on CNN New Day just now said he's got about 1100 precinct chairs.

[squirl22]

Would love to know how this compares to the other candidates.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by 01000110 http://www.ronpaulforums.com/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?p=6117215#post6117215)
Rand on CNN New Day just now said he's got about 1100 precinct chairs.





If Cruz hears this you can be sure he will claim at least 1600....are there that many precincts?

[kbs021]

If Rubio, Trump, Carson, etc. aren't touting it then you know they don't have the goods...

[SilentBull]

If he can make it to 10% and 4th place, then it will have been a triumph for him.

I think 4th should be easy for him to achieve. No way does Carson beat him tonight.

[SilentBull]

He needs to get at least third place so he can make the debate. The less people in that debate, the more time Rand gets to prove that he is the only logical choice while the others likely shoot themselves in the foot.

My concern is New Hampshire. Unless he wins Iowa, I don't see him doing well in New Hampshire. There are ZERO TV ads in New Hampshire for Rand, and I don't see how one does well without one. There are also no Rand signs anywhere. Kasich, Christie and Jeb is all we see. Ron was blacked out in 2012 but he at least had the money to air TV ads.

[limequat]

My concern is New Hampshire. Unless he wins Iowa, I don't see him doing well in New Hampshire. There are ZERO TV ads in New Hampshire for Rand, and I don't see how one does well without one. There are also no Rand signs anywhere. Kasich, Christie and Jeb is all we see. Ron was blacked out in 2012 but he at least had the money to air TV ads.

I think NH has been effectively ceded to the establishment. Let them blow their wads and try to get some momentum coming out of NV.

[jbauer]

1st place for Paul in that poll amongst 18-29 year olds, almost 1st amongst 30-44 year old, ridiculously low above that age. Lets hope this year there will be a massive youth turnout....

The good news is that as all the old people die off we might finally see a change in Government. Hopefully it wont be to late......or the rise of "The Burn" doesn't become the calling card of socialism.

[July]

My concern is New Hampshire. Unless he wins Iowa, I don't see him doing well in New Hampshire. There are ZERO TV ads in New Hampshire for Rand, and I don't see how one does well without one. There are also no Rand signs anywhere. Kasich, Christie and Jeb is all we see. Ron was blacked out in 2012 but he at least had the money to air TV ads.

There are some, I've seen around town. They must have focused just in specific areas. The most I've seen is Kasich, and I've received a LOT of mailers from Jeb, and have had visits from both Ted and Jeb canvassers.

[limequat]

There are some, I've seen around town. They must have focused just in specific areas. The most I've seen is Kasich, and I've received a LOT of mailers from Jeb, and have had visits from both Ted and Jeb canvassers.

To those that get canvassers from other candidates: The best thing to do is invite them in for cookies. Pretend to be interested but on the fence. Tie them up for AS LONG AS POSSIBLE. The more time they waste on you, the less time they have for other people.

[TheNewYorker]

1st place for Paul in that poll amongst 18-29 year olds, almost 1st amongst 30-44 year old, ridiculously low above that age. Lets hope this year there will be a massive youth turnout....

Liberty is looking pretty great for the next few elections. By then, the baby boomers and silent generation should mostly be dead.

Then, maybe a candidate like Ron or Rand may actually have a chance.

[RonPaulMall]

Excellent find, great upward movement for Rand. I don't see the firm here...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

..but it appears to be a very comprehensive study.

Thanks.

See here:

693993132690673664

[KingNothing]

I think NH has been effectively ceded to the establishment. Let them blow their wads and try to get some momentum coming out of NV.

I think NH is a great place for Jeb, Kasich, and Christie to waste money. All three figure to show terribly in Iowa, and all three need to get 2nd in New Hampshire to justify continuing their campaigns.

My guess is that Kasich and Christie will dramatically underperform in NH, and that they will join Carson, Fiorina, Santorum, and Huckabee in thanking their teams and supporters for a battle well fought as they bow out of the race after the primary.

That will leave Donald, Cruz, Rubio, Rand, and Bush. When Bush falters in SC, and Nevada he'll be gone. I do wonder what sort of campaigns Rubio, Cruz and Trump are operating in the super tuesday states, too. One month from now, things will look dramatically different than they do today, that's for sure.

[gee_blee]

Wow I don't know if I've ever seen such a huge age drop off:

18-29: 22.7%
30-44: 17.9%
45-64: 0.7%
65+: 1.7%

I hate to see 45 and up so low, but if it's any consolation, we are the future at least.

Little known factoid on Iowa 2012:

Ron Paul won the under-40 vote.

Ron Paul won the under-30 vote ​in a landslide.

[Todd]

Wonder if Rubio is going to "Santorum" this caucus?

[limequat]

According to the Centers for Disease Control, 2 percent of people have no phone, 9 percent have just a landline, 48 percent have a landline and a cellphone and 41 percent have just a cellphone. That's the highest rate of cell phone-only use in history.Jul 31, 2015

So if we back calculate from the numbers given (Rand gets 76 out of 887 total. Rand get's 1.7% landlines and 26.5% cellphone, for 8.6 total ) ...

I come up with 14 votes from land lines and 62 from cell phones. For this to be true we would have 234 cell respondents and 653 land line respondents.

234 + 653 = 887
62 / 234 = 26.5%

% of Cell phone calls is 234/887 = 26%

We don't know if the land line calls are to people who have ONLY landlines, or landlines in cellphones. However, cell phones are undersampled either way, as 41% have ONLY cellphones. If we were to reweight the cell phone responds to 41% (41% of 887 is 363)...we would get .265*363 + .017*524. Or 96.2 + 8.9 is 11.8%

[CPUd]

Would love to know how this compares to the other candidates.

Cruz at one time claimed 1300, but the real number is probably in the 600-800 range. On Cruz's website you can sign up to be a precinct captain. I know some people who were signing up multiple times with different info. I think they are now calling his phone lists talking about Goldman Sachs...

No other GOP campaign comes close to what Rand has.

[SilentBull]

I know some people who were signing up multiple times with different info. I think they are now calling his phone lists talking about Goldman Sachs...

LOL

[rg17]

[QUOTE=MarcusI;6116976]Considering all the other candidates, I'm more baffled that they have support at all.... Carson at least seems to be a nice person.[/QUOTE

Carson could be VP.

[HarryBrowneLives]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3KUEkxkbKc

[69360]

I could believe 8 might happen. I think 7 or 6 is more likely and finish in 5th place.

[adam220891]

I could believe 8 might happen. I think 7 or 6 is more likely and finish in 5th place.

I get that you are not optimistic.

But please, just give it a rest. If your predictions come true, you are on record as the great psychic. Until then can we just enjoy these next few hours?

Thanks.

[randomname]

So this poll was way off

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx