Weather for Tomorrow

[JohnCifelli1]

Cold and dry for most of the day. In the early evening, light snow will spread across southwest Iowa. It won't make much progress across the rest of the state for a while with plenty of dry air at all levels of the atmosphere in place with a reasonably strong area of high pressure in place. After midnight, snow will overtake much of the state, and snow falls much of Tuesday. 6-12 inches for much ofr the state, including Des moines will be the final accumulated snowfall.

That could be important because people (at least here in NJ) could be preoccupied with getting groceries and preparing. Others will hear "snow Monday night" and not want to be out in it. Paul supporters I suspect will be least likely to be preoccupied or scared off.

[kbs021]

Cold and dry for most of the day. In the early evening, light snow will spread across southwest Iowa. It won't make much progress across the rest of the state for a while with plenty of dry air at all levels of the atmosphere in place with a reasonably strong area of high pressure in place. After midnight, snow will overtake much of the state, and snow falls much of Tuesday. 6-12 inches for much ofr the state, including Des moines will be the final accumulated snowfall.

That could be important because people (at least here in NJ) could be preoccupied with getting groceries and preparing. Others will hear "snow Monday night" and not want to be out in it. Paul supporters I suspect will be least likely to be preoccupied or scared off.

Thanks buddy! Yea I am seeing the word "Blizzard" for Tuesday so this could scare off people wanting to stay out all night for a caucus.

[Tinnuhana]

Students on campus can share the floor in their dorm rooms if it gets that bad, right?

[mit26chell]

Well there's a massive blizzard on the way from here in the Rockies so hopefully the oldies will be out buying bread preparing.

[kbs021]

The "hourly" prediction on the weather channel has snow starting right before the caucus and lasting throughout... Then followed by Blizzard like conditions the next several hours into tuesday. I like it...

[JohnCifelli1]

Too bad that high pressure sticks around. It'd be lovely to move the timeline up a few hours.

[LatinsforPaul]

The "hourly" prediction on the weather channel has snow starting right before the caucus and lasting throughout... Then followed by Blizzard like conditions the next several hours into tuesday. I like it...

Blizzard and Students cause a Randslide in Iowa!

Nice headline for Tuesday. ;)

[JohnCifelli1]

Should we issue Randvalanche watches?

[TomtheTinker]

Ok everybody on the west coast. Gather your family, friends and fans. Open your eastern facing windows. Turn on your fans and have your people blow in the proper direction.

[presence]

BLIZZARD


Watches, Warnings or Advisories for
Iowa This page shows alerts currently in effect for Iowa and is normally updated every two-three minutes. Please see here for other state and listing by county (http://alerts.weather.gov/).



Last updated: 10:20 CST on 01-31-2016






Blizzard Watch
Issued: January 31 at 10:20AM CST
Expiring: February 03 at 6:00AM CST (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=IA1255E574DF90.BlizzardWatch.1255E 9BEDD80IA.DMXWSWDMX.fbee09e648791c3f15019614a38601 8e)
Urgency: Future
Status: Actual


Areas affected:Adair; Adams; Audubon; Black Hawk; Boone; Bremer; Butler; Calhoun; Carroll; Cass; Cerro Gordo; Crawford; Dallas; Emmet; Franklin; Greene; Grundy; Guthrie; Hamilton; Hancock; Hardin; Humboldt; Jasper; Kossuth; Madison; Marshall; Palo Alto; Pocahontas; Polk; Sac; Story; Tama; Taylor; Union; Warren; Webster; Winnebago; Worth; Wright







Special Weather Statement
Issued: January 31 at 9:32AM CST
Expiring: February 03 at 6:00AM CST (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=IA1255E574BD30.SpecialWeatherState ment.1255E9BEDD80IA.ARXSPSARX.c4b3122aeced5f2621fb f38d95b2fad7)
Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual


Areas affected:Allamakee; Clayton







Blizzard Watch
Issued: January 31 at 3:44AM CST
Expiring: February 03 at 6:00AM CST (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=IA1255E573D780.BlizzardWatch.1255E 9BEDD80IA.ARXWSWARX.3bcda87a36e130c36cc1ac6c47cb5f c9)
Urgency: Future
Status: Actual


Areas affected:Chickasaw; Fayette; Floyd; Howard; Mitchell; Winneshiek







Winter Storm Watch
Issued: January 31 at 3:44AM CST
Expiring: February 03 at 6:00AM CST (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=IA1255E573D780.WinterStormWatch.12 55E9BEDD80IA.ARXWSWARX.579c276c94250c1d465e70d647e 03d6b)
Urgency: Future
Status: Actual


Areas affected:Allamakee; Clayton







Blizzard Watch
Issued: January 31 at 3:38AM CST
Expiring: February 03 at 12:00AM CST (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=IA1255E573D528.BlizzardWatch.1255E 9BDF320IA.OAXWSWOAX.85bef7ab81c46eacc6ffbf454d4be0 94)
Urgency: Future
Status: Actual


Areas affected:Harrison; Monona; Shelby







Blizzard Watch
Issued: January 31 at 3:38AM CST
Expiring: February 03 at 12:00AM CST (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=IA1255E573D528.BlizzardWatch.1255E 9BDF320IA.OAXWSWOAX.cbeb7c9e4a3b11daa47a030829ab2e 83)
Urgency: Future
Status: Actual


Areas affected:Fremont; Mills; Montgomery; Page; Pottawattamie







Winter Storm Watch
Issued: January 31 at 3:23AM CST
Expiring: February 03 at 6:00AM CST (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=IA1255E573CF4C.WinterStormWatch.12 55E9BEDD80IA.DVNWSWDVN.976c38d1f958317553e744900be 93bd7)
Urgency: Future
Status: Actual


Areas affected:Benton; Buchanan; Delaware; Dubuque; Jones; Linn







Blizzard Watch
Issued: January 31 at 3:23AM CST
Expiring: February 03 at 6:00AM CST (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=IA1255E573CF4C.BlizzardWatch.1255E 9BEDD80IA.FSDWSWFSD.cc1e1472ae16ca3e07dec21f9ca099 d6)
Urgency: Future
Status: Actual


Areas affected:Buena Vista; Cherokee; Clay; Dickinson; Ida; Lyon; O'Brien; Osceola; Plymouth; Sioux; Woodbury






http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/ia.php?x=1

[presence]

http://i.imgur.com/uf2gG6r.png

[presence]

693856723388493824

[KEEF]

Blizzard and Students cause a Randslide in Iowa!

Nice headline for Tuesday. ;)
Randslide with a blizzard? Um no, more like a Randalanche.

[rich34]

It looks like the western part of the state has the best chance of being affected by the storm. Did I read that Ron did't do so well in the western part and got most of his votes from the central to eastern part of the state? Please let this be true.

[eleganz]

Would be cool for our grassroots to spoof an early blizzard on social media. I hear fear works pretty well.

[liberty_nc]

"Schools will most likely be closed on Tuesday and college students may turn the Iowa Caucus into a big party" -CNN
"Older voters will be worried about what is on the ground after the caucus"-CNN

[Jackie Moon]

"Schools will most likely be closed on Tuesday and college students may turn the Iowa Caucus into a big party" -CNN

No school on Tuesday would be so perfect.

[vonMises]

Massive Blizzard to Hit Iowa on Tuesday February 2, 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeYpLorTNeI

[thatpeculiarcat]

Who's to say IA wont just postpone voting?

[Suzu]

It looks like the western part of the state has the best chance of being affected by the storm. Did I read that Ron did't do so well in the western part and got most of his votes from the central to eastern part of the state? Please let this be true.

It's true! You have a good memory :)

[Suzu]

Who's to say IA wont just postpone voting?

They won't. Iowans are not unfamiliar with snow.

[nskokov]

Looks like it starts entering Iowa around 7 PM and should be squarely in the western half of Iowa by 10 PM. If this thing just speeds up by an extra couple hours it could wreak some havoc.

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/1934188590001/iowans-prepare-for-caucuses-and-blizzard?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin

[CPUd]

693942542707134471

[Sentinelrv]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/election-2016-iowa-caucus-snow-central-northern-plains-monday-night/55036213

So I was looking at the above article and noticed this...


"Women [voters] tend to be affected by the cold more than men," Radich said, adding that the conditions expected for the Iowa caucuses could be detrimental to the female vote.

Candidates like Bernie Sanders who target young people may also feel an impact. Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 have higher turnout rates when the weather is sunny and warm."

We've all been assuming that snow will help us, but this articles states the opposite. I'm wondering whether this only applies to normal candidates who students could care less about and not candidates like Rand that the youth vote is super excited about. What do you think? Do you feel there is a difference? I could see kids saying "meh, it's snowing so I'm not going" if their choice of candidates are boring to them, but I personally think their reaction will be different since Rand is in the race.

[adam220891]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/election-2016-iowa-caucus-snow-central-northern-plains-monday-night/55036213

So I was looking at the above article and noticed this...



We've all been assuming that snow will help us, but this articles states the opposite. I'm wondering whether this only applies to normal candidates who students could care less about and not candidates like Rand that the youth vote is super excited about. What do you think? Do you feel there is a difference? I could see kids saying "meh, it's snowing so I'm not going" if their choice of candidates are boring to them, but I personally think their reaction will be different since Rand is in the race.

Rand is providing transportation and food. No class the next day and I think many colleges have caucus location on campus. Snow should not have a significant effect on student turnout.

[ds21089]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/election-2016-iowa-caucus-snow-central-northern-plains-monday-night/55036213

So I was looking at the above article and noticed this...



We've all been assuming that snow will help us, but this articles states the opposite. I'm wondering whether this only applies to normal candidates who students could care less about and not candidates like Rand that the youth vote is super excited about. What do you think? Do you feel there is a difference? I could see kids saying "meh, it's snowing so I'm not going" if their choice of candidates are boring to them, but I personally think their reaction will be different since Rand is in the race.

That's referencing the history of all youth voters in general. I wouldn't consider Rand supporters to be the "norm" in that classification. They are much more passionate and willing to go the extra mile. I'm hoping the snow keeps the old people home.

[Makes Interesting Points]

The snow just might be a good thing. Any time you are the underdog in a game involving chance such as Risk or Mario Party, you want to create randomness; as the underdog, it's better to roll a dice for a random result than it is to have things played out as expected. A player that is in the lead wants the future path to be a predictable continuation of what has happened so far. As the underdog, you want more variables that add randomness; a variable that can either help or hurt you...is better than no variable at all and a probable loss by a little. More RANDomness please.

http://i.imgur.com/uf2gG6r.png

I love how the ONLY place there's a blizzard is Iowa. It's as if God is saying "Dude, all these Republicans are so bad except for one. Time to add some RANDomness."

[JohnCifelli1]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dmx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[JohnCifelli1]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/uppermissvly_loop.gif

The radar returns in eastern Nebraska and Kansas are interesting, as accumulating precipitation there wasn't modeled. I don't have time to check for ground obs. It'd be a great sign if those radar returns were reaching the ground. Regardless, it looks like weather deteriorates for western and southern Iowa around 9pm. Further north and east should get the caucuses done without weather issues, although I am hopeful that the *threat* of an impending blizzard keeps the old folks and soft support at home.

[Joeinmo]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/uppermissvly_loop.gif

The radar returns in eastern Nebraska and Kansas are interesting, as accumulating precipitation there wasn't modeled. I don't have time to check for ground obs. It'd be a great sign if those radar returns were reaching the ground. Regardless, it looks like weather deteriorates for western and southern Iowa around 9pm. Further north and east should get the caucuses done without weather issues, although I am hopeful that the *threat* of an impending blizzard keeps the old folks and soft support at home.


Just starting to cross the western Iowa border and this is good, because this was Ron's weakest part of Iowa, his best part of Iowa was the eastern half. The snow is starting sooner and with more intensity, but 7pm look for the entire western half of Iowa to be snowing -- this is going to help

[Chester Copperpot]

Massive Blizzard to Hit Iowa on Tuesday February 2, 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeYpLorTNeI

this guy is obviously an illegitimate child of NY famed weatherman Lloyd Lindsey Young...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaQW1j9iHJc

[rich34]

Just starting to cross the western Iowa border and this is good, because this was Ron's weakest part of Iowa, his best part of Iowa was the eastern half. The snow is starting sooner and with more intensity, but 7pm look for the entire western half of Iowa to be snowing -- this is going to help

This is good. I know many say this is Iowa they're used to it but so many people are last second people any more and if you're faced with going to the store to stock up or going to the caucus I'd guess people are going to choose going to the store. You have to think this has to help Rand more so than hurt.

[JohnCifelli1]

By midnight, there should be a couple inches fallen over the SW half of the state. This should be good.

[rg17]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPm4vUILinQ

[Joeinmo]

Ground observations snow has just started along the I 680 corridor from north of Omaha to almost Des Moines

[cornell]

I'm doing the PFH and a LOT of people are not going due to weather, especially among older voters...

[rich34]

Wth is the PFH? Oh phone from home?