Rand's last hope in Iowa

[helenpaul]

He has to hope and pray that Trump supporters surge to the caucus and Trump wins big swamping cruz and rubio. If cruz and rubio finish 2 and 3 close to trump then Rand might as well pack it in

[CPUd]

Fuck that, Rand is taking Iowa.

693482966542979072

[Patrick Henry]

I love your optimism CPUd and I pray Rand has a great night Monday!

[helenpaul]

We can hope he does, but realistically we need to hope that Trump wins by such a wide margin that people look at rubio and cruz as big losers.

[CPUd]

We can hope he does, but realistically we need to hope that Trump wins by such a wide margin that people look at rubio and cruz as big losers.

We're not hoping for a thing here, we're working to deliver Iowa to Rand.

[timreichstein]

If Trump wins the Iowa caucus in a landslide, it's gonna be over for everyone.

Rand needs to finish top 3 in a close race, and preferably beat out Trump, whose support doesn't show up with a terrible GOTV campaign.

Top 2 would be even better.

[Jonderdonk]

If Trump wins the Iowa caucus in a landslide, it's gonna be over for everyone.

Rand needs to finish top 3 in a close race, and preferably beat out Trump, whose support doesn't show up with a terrible GOTV campaign.

Top 2 would be even better.

Is Trump really lacking organization? I hate the man, but there is no denying that he is an exceedingly competent individual surrounded by competent surrogates.

I don't live near Iowa, so I have no way of knowing about his GOTV effort, or lack thereof. Just asking.

[timosman]

Is Trump really lacking organization? I hate the man, but there is no denying that he is an exceedingly competent individual surrounded by competent surrogates.

Do you see what couple of billion bucks does to your perception? :cool:

[Foreigner]

Rand has very good chances in Iowa. He will turn out at least 20.000 supporters.

Nobody doubts that Trump has the most total number of supporters in Iowa. But I think a underwhelming number of them are going to show up. Hardcore Cruz fans are smelling possible victory, so they are going to show in numbers. Rubio will get a good number of the establishment faithful that are central in organizing the caucus events - but he doesn't have any good GOTV operation himself.

While I believe that Rand will turn out 20.000 supporters no matter what, my main worry is that larger portions of the Liberty-voters are going to be "Oh, it's not looking like he will win anyway by the polling numbers, so I can stay home without feeling bad". And then we end up at around 15-18%, just 7-8% behind the caucus winner.

Anyway, I am super-excited for Monday! It's gonna be make or break for the campaign!

[CPUd]

Is Trump really lacking organization? I hate the man, but there is no denying that he is an exceedingly competent individual surrounded by competent surrogates.

I don't live near Iowa, so I have no way of knowing about his GOTV effort, or lack thereof. Just asking.

Their strategy is based on volume. What his campaign is going to do is go out to the 2 largest counties and bring people to the caucus sites. They have no way of identifying their support before they get to the caucus location, so they could be bringing undecideds out who will ultimately support someone else. And I assume, some of them will caucus for Trump.

[Jonderdonk]

Do you see what couple of billion bucks does to your perception? :cool:

You couldn't possibly be trying to argue that Trump is an incompetent person... That's just foolish underestimation.

I'm just asking anyone in Iowa knows for a fact that he really does lack organization, or if everyone is just assuming that.

[Jonderdonk]

Their strategy is based on volume. What his campaign is going to do is go out to the 2 largest counties and bring people to the caucus sites. They have no way of identifying their support before they get to the caucus location, so they could be bringing undecideds out who will ultimately support someone else. And I assume, some of them will caucus for Trump.

Thank you.

[nikcers]

You couldn't possibly be trying to argue that Trump is an incompetent person... That's just foolish underestimation.

I'm just asking anyone in Iowa knows for a fact that he really does lack organization, or if everyone is just assuming that.

The press has gone past his office a bunch and it has been empty. He also has to report expenditures so unless he has been cooking his books then all of his bets are riding on NH.

[clint4liberty]

No one has even voted yet. The race has not even begun. Let us keep working and plugging along.

[69360]

IMO Trump's support will not turn out. His campaign has no gotv effort, has no "how to" on caucusing and generally no structure at all. I think he will underperform in IA. Unfortunately that would mean Cruz, not Rand wins IA. Cruz has a real campaign in place in IA.

[squirl22]

We're not hoping for a thing here, we're working to deliver Iowa to Rand.

Ditto...that's how I feel. Lots of fair weather friends here...so weak.

[01000110]

The press has gone past his office a bunch and it has been empty. He also has to report expenditures so unless he has been cooking his books then all of his bets are riding on NH.
http://www.examiner.com/article/is-trump-trouble

Is Trump in trouble?http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/image_content_width/hash/12/80/1280e65b0e62b5aa7071bb3d67fb0e04.jpg?itok=j2wOYGIt
Apparently, Donald Trump (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/safari-reader://www.examiner.com/topic/donald-trump) is more worried about not winning Iowa than he's let on in public. To be fair, he's leading the final Des Moines Register poll (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/donald-trump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/) before the Iowa Caucuses (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/safari-reader://www.examiner.com/topic/iowa-caucuses). Mr. Trump leads with 28%, with Sen. Cruz at 25% and Sen. Rubio at 15%. Still, Mr. Trump must be worried. This Time article (http://time.com/4201287/donald-trump-iowa-loss/) doesn't have the sound of a confident candidate. Time quotes Trump as saying "You have to get out there and caucus, or we’ve all wasted our time. Unless I win, I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful, and, by the way, a very expensive, waste of time. “If I don’t win, maybe bad things happen."
Trump gained 6 points since the previous DMR/Bloomberg poll, which was conducted January 7-10. Cruz dropped from 25% to 23% with Sen. Rubio gaining 3 points, going from 12% in early January to 15% in the just-released poll. A major takeaway from the DMR/Bloomberg Poll is that "nothing in this poll forecasts a groundswell of new people." That's supposed to be bad news for Mr. Trump if the Monmouth University Poll is to be believed. The DMR/Bloomberg Poll says that Trump's support is solid, regardless of turnout.
Shane Vander Hart of Caffeinated Thoughts (http://caffeinatedthoughts.com/) took a picture today of a Trump call center in Des Moines. The parking lot was virtually empty. What's worse is that this empty parking lot was in the late morning. If ever there was a time when a call center should have volunteers making calls, it's on the final Saturday before the big vote. There have been unconfirmed reports of Trump precinct captains not having lists of people to call to get out the vote (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/safari-reader://www.examiner.com/topic/get-out-the-vote).
The final DMR/Bloomberg poll is the most respected poll because it's incredibly accurate. In 2012, it got 3 of the top finishers almost exactly right. The exception was Rick Santorum, who was supported by 15% of the people called. He won the Iowa Caucuses, finishing with 24.6%. In 2012, the DMR final poll got within tenths of a point for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.
The anecdotal evidence from the reporters on the ground doesn't square with the DMR/Bloomberg Poll. That doesn't mean it'll be wrong. It just means that someone's wrong at this point. The point is, we won't know who is wrong for another 48 hours. At that point, we'll have a much clearer picture of things.

[rich34]

Do you see what couple of billion bucks does to your perception? :cool:

Possibly, but I do see what billions of dollars in round the clock free advertising does for a political candidate. I'm not wanting to throw up the white flag just yet and won't until the votes are counted.. However if this poll turns out to be true it tells me the establishment ran three candidates to thwart the liberty movements candidate, specifically Trump, Cruz, and yes even Sanders. It is what it is, but Cruz is by far the one I loath the most. He does a much better job hiding it, but the man imo is even more narcissist than Donald Trump. But back to Rand, I'm voting for the man regardless even once everything is decided. I just hope and pray the hardcore Ron Paul supporters in Iowa wake the eh umm up and do the same.

[Origanalist]

We can hope he does, but realistically we need to hope that Trump wins by such a wide margin that people look at rubio and cruz as big losers.

http://gifsec.com/wp-content/uploads/GIF/2014/03/Stare-What-GIF.gif?gs=a

[rich34]

Ditto...that's how I feel. Lots of fair weather friends here...so weak.

I don't believe it's that at all, my primary is not until May but I'll be voting for the man even if he's out of the race way before then. I can't speak for anyone other than myself, but I suppose I'm a little disappointed (IF these numbers are remotely accurate AND the campaign knew it) that they didn't deploy the campaign"scorched earth tactic" which in my mind would have been getting Ron on the campaign trail at least throughout January to not just fire up the base but to get back the "soft" support that you mention that may have fled to Sanders, Trump, or Cruz. Now I know the whole Ron didn't or shouldn't have to argument, but I haven't seen or heard him say that.

I'll stop, no vote has been cast and if the campaign has truly identified 37,000 potential voters then Rand honestly has a great shot at pulling off a major upset whether he finishes first or not. I'm sorry guys I'm normally not the guy that is being negative, I'm just frustrated and shouldn't be spewing my apathy. I will truly be praying for a major upset and it's way to early to be playing Monday morning quarterback.

[lly4now]

IMO Trump's support will not turn out. His campaign has no gotv effort, has no "how to" on caucusing and generally no structure at all. I think he will underperform in IA. Unfortunately that would mean Cruz, not Rand wins IA. Cruz has a real campaign in place in IA.

They just blasted this video out to their supporters today :rolleyes:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Otk1FRbNR8

[69360]

They just blasted this video out to their supporters today :rolleyes:


They just figured out they needed to instruct their voters with 2 days to go?

[nikcers]

IMO Trump's support will not turn out. His campaign has no gotv effort, has no "how to" on caucusing and generally no structure at all. I think he will underperform in IA. Unfortunately that would mean Cruz, not Rand wins IA. Cruz has a real campaign in place in IA.

Real campaigns guilt people into voting for their candidates by shaming them.

[mit26chell]

Did anyone happen to catch the guy in the Oxford shirt re-enacting the 'it's happening! GIF in the video posted above?! So funny.

[Brett85]

They just blasted this video out to their supporters today :rolleyes:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Otk1FRbNR8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diMp241gAcw

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/cGT1RrK.jpg

[Brett85]

^^^Wow! Lol. I've never seen that one.

[seapilot]

They just figured out they needed to instruct their voters with 2 days to go?

Trump is all powerful. He doesn't need people to vote for him to win, he has already won. >>> normal thinking of Trump supporter.

[rich34]

Hopefully we'll get a good sense of the sheer number of support tomorrow based on how big a crowd shows up for the rally. Sure seemed like Rand had a good bit of support in the crowd during the debate.

[timosman]

They just blasted this video out to their supporters today :rolleyes:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Otk1FRbNR8

This is a mistake. Trump should not be using her, definitely not in Iowa. :D

[DavesNotHere]

IMO Trump's support will not turn out. His campaign has no gotv effort, has no "how to" on caucusing and generally no structure at all. I think he will underperform in IA. Unfortunately that would mean Cruz, not Rand wins IA. Cruz has a real campaign in place in IA.

FYI- Trump does have a "how to caucus" video. It has over 210k views and was Published on Jan 16, 2016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thi56OCkduA

[timosman]

I do not know, but all the people Trump surrounds himself with, do not look credible nor inspiring. You would have to be a total sheep in order to participate.

I think Trump's candidacy is a test of gullibility of the general public. How desperate you must be in order to believe me? Hint: Just look at all the people around me if you do not want to listen what I am saying. Still not enough??? Oh, fuck it. Now I am getting desperate.

[eleganz]

He has to hope and pray that Trump supporters surge to the caucus and Trump wins big swamping cruz and rubio. If cruz and rubio finish 2 and 3 close to trump then Rand might as well pack it in

Completely false analysis, Rand would benefit from a strong Rubio finish. Strong Cruz finish not so good.

[adam220891]

Hopefully we'll get a good sense of the sheer number of support tomorrow based on how big a crowd shows up for the rally. Sure seemed like Rand had a good bit of support in the crowd during the debate.

I looked up the venue and it seems under 2k capacity (just a guess). Surprisingly small

[Badger Paul]

"The anecdotal evidence from the reporters on the ground doesn't square with the DMR/Bloomberg Poll. That doesn't mean it'll be wrong. It just means that someone's wrong at this point. The point is, we won't know who is wrong for another 48 hours. At that point, we'll have a much clearer picture of things."

Actually this will be a good test of whether organization is essential or overrated in Iowa. Two of the top three candidates in Iowa have very little in regards to on-the-ground organization and relying on what they've gained in free media to push them over-the-top. Cruz has good organization and all things being equal would probably win because of that. Yet if there's a high turnout like they're saying (130,0000 plus) then Trump looks in good shape.

[Badger Paul]

The Republican caucus procedures are actually quite simple: you go to your precinct, listen to the speeches, vote by secret ballot, then leave unless you really want to be a county delegate. It's not asking a Trump supporter a lot to do it and I'm sure they've probably caucused at least once before (they don't do it very often because they saw no reason or compelling candidate to do so until Trump came along.)

[brandon]

We're not hoping for a thing here, we're working to deliver Iowa to Rand.

Are you there? I was in new Hampshire for Ron Paul in 2007. I know how it goes. When you surround yourself with other die hard supporters, its hard to imagine an outcome where you couldn't win. Until the results come one. Hundreds or thousands of you packed in a room, slight drunk, having the time of your life.... And then boom. The results match the polls. Single digits. Been there. Hope better for you guys, but id temper my expectations.

[RDM]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

[Crashland]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

source?

[LibertyEagle]

Completely false analysis, Rand would benefit from a strong Rubio finish. Strong Cruz finish not so good.

Don't think so. The establishment/media is pushing Rubio strongly. If Rubio wins, I'm afraid he's going to take off.

[rich34]

Don't think so. The establishment/media is pushing Rubio strongly. If Rubio wins, I'm afraid he's going to take off.

As bad as I'd hate to see Cruz (who is as narcissist as Trump) win Iowa I believe you're right.

[timosman]

Don't think so. The establishment/media is pushing Rubio strongly. If Rubio wins, I'm afraid he's going to take off.

He will take off like a lead balloon. The establishment does not really have good options at this point.They should have put Romney, it might have worked better. Third time is the charm. :cool:

[CPUd]

Are you there? I was in new Hampshire for Ron Paul in 2007. I know how it goes. When you surround yourself with other die hard supporters, its hard to imagine an outcome where you couldn't win. Until the results come one. Hundreds or thousands of you packed in a room, slight drunk, having the time of your life.... And then boom. The results match the polls. Single digits. Been there. Hope better for you guys, but id temper my expectations.

I know all about that, it's part of the game. It's not going to stop any of the real Rand supporters from doing everything they can to help Rand take Iowa. If you're not going to help, stay out of the way.

[LibertyEagle]

I know all about that, it's part of the game. It's not going to stop any of the real Rand supporters from doing everything they can to help Rand take Iowa. If you're not going to help, stay out of the way.

Get to helping then, because posting on this internet forum isn't doing jack for Rand.

[CPUd]

Yeah, there are too many soft supporters on this board to really be of use.

[BarryDonegan]

I don't agree that it's his only hope but I do agree that a huge margin of victory for Trump gives Rand a major advantage. That means the media will begin saying Trump is now inevitable to win and the rest should just get out. The establishment will push for people to get out and people with closer relationships to the establishment in reality (who cave in first on foreign policy) will begin to get out. Rand could stay in and become the anti-trump.

[RabbitMan]

The Republican caucus procedures are actually quite simple: you go to your precinct, listen to the speeches, vote by secret ballot, then leave unless you really want to be a county delegate. It's not asking a Trump supporter a lot to do it and I'm sure they've probably caucused at least once before (they don't do it very often because they saw no reason or compelling candidate to do so until Trump came along.)

Never underestimate the power of laziness. Here in WA all you have to do is fill out a ballot that is mailed to your door, and then put it back in the mail. There is even a brochure that explains all of the candidates and issues being voted on, with pros and cons written on voter approved Initiatives. You never have to leave your house and have close to a month to complete it.

Most of the people I know do not vote. *dying*