'Best Pollster in Politics' releases final Iowa poll tonight at 5:30.

[laissez faire]

538's recent feature on the Des Moines Register's Ann Selzer.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/selzer/

The paper's announcement of the final poll results to come later today.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/27/final-iowa-poll-before-caucuses-released-saturday/79411100/

Rand was at 5% in their poll of 2 weeks ago. The last 5 polls he has been under 5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

Let's see what DM says tonight.

[RDM]

Will probably show a 2% bump, but their MOE will cover their ass in case of Iowa surprise.

[Dianne]

Hopefully he got a bounce off of the debate.

[kbs021]

If we do get a bump, be prepared to share the word very hard.

[mit26chell]

Rubio will have surged to 25%, Rand back down to 2. LOL. We all know it's a joke anyway :)

[clint4liberty]

If the phone from home program works then the polls are dead wrong. We can only fund gotv efforts all on fronts to motivate people likely or wanting to caucus for Rand Paul. I do not care about polls only encouraging voters to join us as the only real option for President.

[eleganz]

Rubio will have surged to 25%, Rand back down to 2. LOL. We all know it's a joke anyway :)


Rubio surge is one of the best scenarios for Rand.

[Sentinelrv]

Didn't the DMR endorse Rubio?

[CPUd]

Is she the one who was only polling 5% of Ron 2012 voters?

[ds21089]

Rubio surge is one of the best scenarios for Rand.

Not if it pushes him to 4th (which I doubt will happen unless the voting is rigged).

[rich34]

Any numbers released yet?

[01000110]

Any numbers released yet?
5:30 CT maybe?

[CPUd]

It is projecting based on a 284K turnout...I think that is for both parties.

14% are registered Republicans.

[rich34]

5:30 CT maybe?

My bad, I'd say you're right.

[Patrick Henry]

It is projecting 284K turnout...

Yikes

[CPUd]

The 284K active voters is the same model they used for the last DMR poll. The sample is only 14% registered GOP

[CPUd]

Full results will be posted 5:45PM, assuming Central time, because Iowa.

[unknown]

I'm refreshing the page every minute...

[nikcers]

They are still taking bids, and then they have to count all their money

[JRS]

I'm refreshing the page every minute...
lol same

[CPUd]

This is probably not going to show anything new since the previous one. Except Carson may be way down, tied or below Rand..

[CPUd]

Their projected GOP turnout = 85,600 + whoever registers on caucus day.

[Alldayallie]

Is she the one who was only polling 5% of Ron 2012 voters?

She was the one that had Ron at 22% in 2012 and Ron got 21.4%. She's right.

[Matt Collins]

Doesn't matter, all polls will be within the margin of error.

[liberty_nc]

Results?

[rich34]

She was the one that had Ron at 22% in 2012 and Ron got 21.4%. She's right.

If she's only polling (no pun intended) 5% of Ron Paul's caucus goers from 2012 then I can understand why one would question the accuracy of what's being told.

[CPUd]

live stream:
http://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/live-video/poll.php

[Alldayallie]

Beginning the show. They are going over bigger picture things. Right now Trump vs. Cruz in terms of characteristics.

This really is the gold standard poll in Iowa.

[rich34]

Doesn't matter, all polls will be within the margin of error.

So you're saying Rand's ceiling may only be 10%? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Alldayallie]

65% of Iowa Democrats ok with a Democratic Socialist. :|

[RandFTW]

65% of Iowa Democrats ok with a Democratic Socialist. :|
Its crazy!!!! I would never believe it!

[CPUd]

releasing now...

[Alldayallie]

Horse Race results are being revealed now:

[JRS]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[liberty_nc]

shit

[CPUd]

Rand #5 at 5%

[01000110]

Rand at 5

How in the hell is Carson at 10?

[Alldayallie]

Donald Trump 28%
Ted Cruz 23%
Marco Rubio 15%
Ben Carson 10%
Paul 5%
Christie 3%
All others at 2%

[robmpreston]

well we are fucked

[CPUd]

I'm not sure what people were expecting?

[RandFTW]

well we are fucked
And our whole country!

[01000110]

I'm not sure what people were expecting?
True.

But reality is fucking depressing... no?

[supermario21]

I don't think any of us should be surprised. If anything he put distance between him and 6th. Carson just stuns the hell out of me. I like him a lot, but he offers nothing at all.

[fcreature]

well we are fucked

Caucus is in two days. This poll changes nothing.

[simon1911]

So 5% would that be like 7500 votes?

[CPUd]

True.

But reality is fucking depressing... no?

If it's anything like the last DMR poll, these are numbers for mostly 50+ voters where he usually gets 1-3%

[01000110]

If it's anything like the last DMR poll, these are numbers for mostly 50+ voters where he usually gets 1-3%
Yeah, maybe.

I was personally hoping for 6% and for him to be above Carson. Carson at 10 baffles me.

[CPUd]

Full poll here:
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/r1OvZ1NeDjnY

[TheGoldenFamily]

~600 were polled. How is this a good statistic whatsoever?

[supermario21]

Just heard on Fox by Jenna Lee: "It's interesting that Rand Paul is ahead of Christie and Bush."

[Dianne]

Donald Trump 28%
Ted Cruz 23%
Marco Rubio 15%
Ben Carson 10%
Paul 5%
Christie 3%
All others at 2%

Paul beating all the establishment candidates; other than Rubio. I think this is pretty damn fine !!!

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/aWj14EC.png

[cornell]

Nothing in the full poll or cross-tabs about 2012 choice, too bad, was curious if the 5% Ron Paul phenomenon would repeat itself.

[simon1911]

And Trump would win Iowa?

[Alldayallie]

2012 DMR Poll (Actual):
Romney 24 (24.5)
Paul 22 (21.5)
Santorum 15 (24.6)
Gingrich 12 (13.3)
Perry 11 (10.3)
Bachmann 5 (5.0)
Huntsman 2 (0.6)

Besides Santorum, they had everyone within MoE, actually within 1.5%. Santorum's last second push poll surge obviously was the wild card.

[Alldayallie]

~600 were polled. How is this a good statistic whatsoever?

Sigh. People still make this idiotic argument against polling.

[fcreature]

4% MOE. 45% still able to be persuaded overall. 38% of Cruz supporters able to be persuaded. 53% of Rubio supporters able to be persuaded.

Saw nothing about age in there. Probably 95% polled over the age of 60.

[TheGoldenFamily]

Sigh. People still make this idiotic argument against polling.
You don't need to be passive aggressive. I'm genuinely curious..

[rich34]

~600 were polled. How is this a good statistic whatsoever?

I would agree but Collins said it would be within the margin of error. I am completely baffled at this point as well and if these numbers are true and the campaign knew this then WHY the hell wasn't Ron Paul out on the campaign trail firing people up??

[Dianne]

I don't think any of us should be surprised. If anything he put distance between him and 6th. Carson just stuns the hell out of me. I like him a lot, but he offers nothing at all.

My prediction is caucus results will have Rand on top of Carson.

[CPUd]

This is why Rand has been putting up "Stop Eminent Domain Abuse" signs in Iowa:

http://i.imgur.com/ud7gcEi.png

[mit26chell]

Who cares. He didn't fall and two establishment pricks are below him. I realize this may fuck with the next debate but wasn't he already excluded?

[CPUd]

Who cares. He didn't fall and two establishment pricks are below him. I realize this may fuck with the next debate but wasn't he already excluded?

No.

[Crashland]

I'm not sure what people were expecting?

They were expecting all the last polls to suddenly change because this is when they get "rated for accuracy" :cool:

I think finishing 4th ahead of Carson is a reasonable goal at this point to show that the campaign isn't just rolling over. 3rd or higher would be quite the feat.

[Foreigner]

Carson at 10% is really good, dividing evangelicals.

Rand is gonna get top 3.

[Jamesiv1]

I am completely baffled at this point as well and if these numbers are true and the campaign knew this then WHY the hell wasn't Ron Paul out on the campaign trail firing people up??
Because Ron is retired and doesn't want to do that shit anymore. And we shouldn't expect him to.

[mit26chell]

Rand will be top 3 in IA.

[Patrick Henry]

Carson at 10% is really good, dividing evangelicals.

Rand is gonna get top 3.

That would be nice.

[rich34]

I don't think any of us should be surprised. If anything he put distance between him and 6th. Carson just stuns the hell out of me. I like him a lot, but he offers nothing at all.

This is essentially the third go around for team Paul, and the campaign just made a million phone calls I suppose I was expecting a little more?

[CPUd]

Note the sampling period was Jan 26-Jan 29, the debate was on the 28th.

[simon1911]

Note the sampling period was Jan 26-Jan 29, the debate was on the 28th.

I feel better with this but you know the MSM will use this poll against Rand from now till Monday and thus creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

[CPUd]

This is essentially the third go around for team Paul, and the campaign just made a million phone calls I suppose I was expecting a little more?

They identified 37K Rand supporters or leaners, how many of those 37K of the 602 sampled do you think this poll called?

[rich34]

Because Ron is retired and doesn't want to do that shit anymore. And we shouldn't expect him to.

Yeah whatever, I don't buy that shit.. Ron seemed to enjoy getting out and talking to young people. I would think this even more so when you got a socialist like sanders out here fooling all these young people. Especially given the fact it would be an opportunity to help his son achieve what he didn't.

[CPUd]

Yeah whatever, I don't buy that shit.. Ron seemed to enjoy getting out and talking to young people. I would think this even more so when you got a socialist like sanders out here fooling all these young people. Especially given the fact it would be an opportunity to help his son achieve what he didn't.

Ron on the trail wouldn't have changed the results of these polls. The last DMR sample only included 5% of Ron 2012 voters.

[cornell]

They identified 37K Rand supporters or leaners, how many of those 37K of the 602 sampled do you think this poll called?

You're mixing up the 37k voters CAV pac found with the 1 million calls the campaign made. Completely separate.

[Rudeman]

Yeah whatever, I don't buy that shit.. Ron seemed to enjoy getting out and talking to young people. I would think this even more so when you got a socialist like sanders out here fooling all these young people. Especially given the fact it would be an opportunity to help his son achieve what he didn't.

If he enjoyed it so much why doesn't he do it for himself? Ron doesn't need to campaign for Rand in order to give speeches.

[fcreature]

Some of you need to take a step back and stop caring about this polling data. If not for the polls, would you have any reason to doubt Rand's ability to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire? The caucus is in two days, the results will speak for themselves.

Sure, polling is usually somewhat accurate. This election cycle is an abnormal one in all regards. Celebrity has taken over. Do you really believe Trump will get 30% of the vote? I'll believe it when I see it. My guess is that it is more likely than not that his voters do not show up.

The poll showing that only 5% of those included voted for Ron Paul in 2012 proves that our polling is being under-reported. By how much, we won't know until Monday/Tuesday. In that poll it was by 20%.

You need to realize this is a caucus. 40% of people are still not firm in their choice of candidate. The vast majority of those caucusing are not like you and I. They do not have their mind set and do not know everything there is to know about every candidate. What matters is getting our people out and making sure they have compelling speeches to give in Rand's favor. The people in Iowa will be listening to their neighbors and then deciding their vote. It is still very fluid.

In my opinion, turning out thousands of young people with over 1,000 precinct captains with finely tuned speeches has the potential to sway many voters. Those showing up will respect that the younger generation is participating and it will have an effect.

We can only hope for the best. This poll changes nothing. We have 48 hours. Make some calls if you are worried.

[JJ2]

Ron on the trail wouldn't have changed the results of these polls. The last DMR sample only included 5% of Ron 2012 voters.

Not necessarily true. If they first ask people are you going to caucus, and out of those only 5% voted for Ron, then that could mean that 3/4 of his voters are staying home this year. Ron on the trail could have fired them up to go vote.

[CPUd]

This bit is interesting:


Support for Rubio, who has emerged as the leading establishment candidate, remained flat as the caucuses near. In fact, over the four days of the survey, his support dropped the last two days.

[Rudeman]

I agree that there's too much focus on the polling, Rand is banking on the youth vote and the polls will naturally under-poll them until they actually end up showing up for Rand.

[CPUd]

Some of you need to take a step back and stop caring about this polling data. If not for the polls, would you have any reason to doubt Rand's ability to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire? The caucus is in two days, the results will speak for themselves.

Sure, polling is usually somewhat accurate. This election cycle is an abnormal one in all regards. Celebrity has taken over. Do you really believe Trump will get 30% of the vote? I'll believe it when I see it. My guess is that it is more likely than not that his voters do not show up.

The poll showing that only 5% of those included voted for Ron Paul in 2012 proves that our polling is being under-reported. By how much, we won't know until Monday/Tuesday. In that poll it was by 20%.

You need to realize this is a caucus. 40% of people are still not firm in their choice of candidate. The vast majority of those caucusing are not like you and I. They do not have their mind set and do not know everything there is to know about every candidate. What matters is getting our people out and making sure they have compelling speeches to give in Rand's favor. The people in Iowa will be listening to their neighbors and then deciding their vote. It is still very fluid.

In my opinion, turning out thousands of young people with over 1,000 precinct captains with finely tuned speeches has the potential to sway many voters. Those showing up will respect that the younger generation is participating and it will have an effect.

We can only hope for the best. This poll changes nothing. We have 48 hours. Make some calls if you are worried.

QFT


693217455636754432

[Jamesiv1]

Yeah whatever, I don't buy that shit.. Ron seemed to enjoy getting out and talking to young people. I would think this even more so when you got a socialist like sanders out here fooling all these young people. Especially given the fact it would be an opportunity to help his son achieve what he didn't.
You're right. You could tell he enjoyed seeing the light come on, especially in young people.

I can sure cut him some slack if he doesn't want to though. A few good reasons:


He's 80-years old
He's been in politics since 1976
He probably doesn't want to overshadow his son, the guy who is running for president.
I'm sure being in public life, and often mocked by the establishment takes a toll on one's family.
Politics stole a lot of time from his wife and grand-kids. If I were him, I would say "screw that shit" and cherish every moment I've got left.

He's still writing, and doing the weekly Ron Paul Report.

Let the man enjoy his autumn years, and ride that bicycle on familiar trails.

[rich34]

If he enjoyed it so much why doesn't he do it for himself? Ron doesn't need to campaign for Rand in order to give speeches.

I obviously can't speak for the man, but I can't imagine he'd so easily give the inroads he made with young people so easily. If he comes out and says so fine. I can deal with it, but if not well. Somebody fudged up or miscalculated.

[Patrick Henry]

Isn't Dr. Paul's daughter extremely ill? Maybe that is why as well. That would probably keep me from doing it.

[Rudeman]

I obviously can't speak for the man, but I can't imagine he'd so easily give the inroads he made with young people so easily. If he comes out and says so fine. I can deal with it, but if not well. Somebody fudged up or miscalculated.

All I'm saying is if he genuinely enjoyed doing it for himself there was no reason for him to stop. He doesn't need to be campaigning for himself or anyone else to do it. He may have enjoyed it while campaigning but it probably wasn't something he would go out of his way to do, especially at his current age.

Now writing books or doing his reports is something he has continued to do because it appears that is something he enjoys or at least isn't as taxing as traveling around the country giving speeches.

[helenpaul]

this is a pro establishment poll, from an establishment newspaper pushing rubio, so its probably worthless. regardless, Rand hass made huge mistakes by acting like rubio is a saint. if he doesnt finish ahead of rubio, he is history.

[francisco]

Some of you need to take a step back and stop caring about this polling data. If not for the polls, would you have any reason to doubt Rand's ability to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire? The caucus is in two days, the results will speak for themselves.

Sure, polling is usually somewhat accurate. This election cycle is an abnormal one in all regards. Celebrity has taken over. Do you really believe Trump will get 30% of the vote? I'll believe it when I see it. My guess is that it is more likely than not that his voters do not show up.

The poll showing that only 5% of those included voted for Ron Paul in 2012 proves that our polling is being under-reported. By how much, we won't know until Monday/Tuesday. In that poll it was by 20%.

You need to realize this is a caucus. 40% of people are still not firm in their choice of candidate. The vast majority of those caucusing are not like you and I. They do not have their mind set and do not know everything there is to know about every candidate. What matters is getting our people out and making sure they have compelling speeches to give in Rand's favor. The people in Iowa will be listening to their neighbors and then deciding their vote. It is still very fluid.

In my opinion, turning out thousands of young people with over 1,000 precinct captains with finely tuned speeches has the potential to sway many voters. Those showing up will respect that the younger generation is participating and it will have an effect.

We can only hope for the best. This poll changes nothing. We have 48 hours. Make some calls if you are worried.

QFT, +rep

[01000110]

this is a pro establishment poll, from an establishment newspaper pushing rubio, so its probably worthless. regardless, Rand hass made huge mistakes by acting like rubio is a saint. if he doesnt finish ahead of rubio, he is history.
He's blasted Rubio on immigration and defense spending in every single debate.

[simon1911]

IMHO, Rand must finish top 3 to stay in the fight. If he doesn't, this country doesn't deserve the Paul's. Liberty requires virtuous people and it was clear back in 08 then reminded in 12 and possibly now that we no longer value the things that has made us exceptional.

[01000110]

IMHO, Rand must finish top 3 to stay in the fight. If he doesn't, this country doesn't deserve the Paul's. Liberty requires virtuous people and it was clear back in 08 then reminded in 12 and possibly now that we no longer value the things that has made us exceptional.
Problem is terrorism is the #1 issue (according to the media)... and the people who are scared shitless want someone who will carpet bomb the middle east into oblivion.

Rand isn't that guy... people are brainwashed, unfortunately.

[helenpaul]

He's blasted Rubio on immigration and defense spending in every single debate.

Not nearly enough. every time he mentioned trump or cruz he wasted time, money, and votes.

[01000110]

Not nearly enough. every time he mentioned trump or cruz he wasted time, money, and votes.
Ugh. No, I cannot agree. Rand has called Trump and Cruz out for what they are... it's not his fault people are brain dead.

[RonPaulRules]

Sadly if Rand finishes below 2, his campaign will most likely be over. :(

[CPUd]

Sadly if Rand finishes below 2, his campaign will most likely be over. :(

http://i.imgur.com/Po7QowA.jpg

[CPUd]

693456063094349826

[simon1911]

Problem is terrorism is the #1 issue (according to the media)... and the people who are scared shitless want someone who will carpet bomb the middle east into oblivion.

Rand isn't that guy... people are brainwashed, unfortunately.

I agree. And yet we are leaving the border unsecured while convincing the masses to give up their rights with warrantless surveillance, indefinite detention, CISA, etc. Then of course, the empire building, or dare I say imperialism around the world. Nothing good will come out of all this.

[Mr.NoSmile]

Sadly if Rand finishes below 2, his campaign will most likely be over. :(

His campaign was supposed to be likely over when he didn't qualify for or participate on the Fox Business debate. Or meant to be over if he didn't raise as much, or if he didn't vote certain ways on key issues, and so on and so forth. And yet, here he is.

[65fastback2+2]

Isn't Dr. Paul's daughter extremely ill? Maybe that is why as well. That would probably keep me from doing it.

yes, and I would heavily think so

[69360]

I think this poll will prove to be about right. I think Rand will finish 5th but with a bit more than 5%. Maybe 7% or so. Maybe, just maybe he could squeak out a 4th place, Carson is sinking fast.

[nikcers]

I think this poll will prove to be about right. I think Rand will finish 5th but with a bit more than 5%. Maybe 7% or so. Maybe, just maybe he could squeak out a 4th place, Carson is sinking fast.

LOL even fox says that Rand will finish higher then he is polling.

[clint4liberty]

Do not believe the polls. No one has even voted yet. Let us keep working and plugging along. The race has not even started yet.

[squirl22]

I'm going to wait for the results on Monday. I'm not so sure about Trump....Cruz definitely has support and no one cares about his flaws or lies or treachery...Rubio, I'm not so sure about him...I don't think he will do as well as predicted unless the anti Cruz movement really accelerates, Carson is dead in the water, but who knows. All I can say as I am not that impressed with the Iowa voter. They have all of this opportunity to learn first hand about candidates but they are just as much in the dark as most people. I do not think they deserve to have the first dibs at the electoral process.

[opinionatedfool]

Isn't Dr. Paul's daughter extremely ill? Maybe that is why as well. That would probably keep me from doing it.

Yeah, that's what I've heard about his daughter too. Probably hard for rand to focus on campaigning sometimes to because of this.

[trey4sports]

There's 3 tickets out of Iowa...

[speciallyblend]

There's 3 tickets out of Iowa... hoping we get top 3 or top2,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FtHhUDo-08
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FtHhUDo-08

[lly4now]

Some back-of-the-napkin thoughts:

I have trouble seeing the GOP turnout much higher than 2012 (~120k) and 2008 (~120k). Based on the DMR poll, assuming 130k turnout, Paul's 5% = 6,500 votes. That also means Trump gets 36k votes and Cruz 30k.

I think 6,500 is an extremely low number given what we know about Rand's outreach.

Making some assumptions:
- 90% of Ron's 2008 voters vote for Rand = 10,500
- 33% of the new Ron 2012 voters vote for Rand = 4,700
- 75% of the 10k Students for Rand turn out = 7,500

I can see Rand getting no less than 22,700 votes.

Some factors at play that can break DMR's prediction:
- Cruz losing voters due to debate, TV talking heads, and weekend gaffes = Cruz does worse than polls
- Paul having an unexpected rise in support post-debate = Paul does better than polls
- Rubio being inflated by talking heads = Rubio does better than polls
- Trump supporters taking for granted his inevitability + campaign's (relatively) weak ground game = Trump does worse

In the end, who knows? I'm hoping for top 2 or 3, otherwise we lose the chance for Rand to influence the narrative going into NH.

[rich34]

His campaign was supposed to be likely over when he didn't qualify for or participate on the Fox Business debate. Or meant to be over if he didn't raise as much, or if he didn't vote certain ways on key issues, and so on and so forth. And yet, here he is.

Atta boy, or girl! I admire and appreciate your optimism. I just hope and pray it's contagious!

[Krugminator2]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/30/politics/ted-cruz-keep-the-promise-super-pac/index.html

Interesting nugget. Cruz's PACs only raised $2 million the second half of 2015. That is kind of amazing. Rand's PACs outraised Cruz by what looks like a decent margin.

[vonMises]

Some back-of-the-napkin thoughts:

I have trouble seeing the GOP turnout much higher than 2012 (~120k) and 2008 (~120k). Based on the DMR poll, assuming 130k turnout, Paul's 5% = 6,500 votes. That also means Trump gets 36k votes and Cruz 30k.

I think 6,500 is an extremely low number given what we know about Rand's outreach.

Making some assumptions:
- 90% of Ron's 2008 voters vote for Rand = 10,500
- 33% of the new Ron 2012 voters vote for Rand = 4,700
- 75% of the 10k Students for Rand turn out = 7,500

I can see Rand getting no less than 22,700 votes.

Some factors at play that can break DMR's prediction:
- Cruz losing voters due to debate, TV talking heads, and weekend gaffes = Cruz does worse than polls
- Paul having an unexpected rise in support post-debate = Paul does better than polls
- Rubio being inflated by talking heads = Rubio does better than polls
- Trump supporters taking for granted his inevitability + campaign's (relatively) weak ground game = Trump does worse

In the end, who knows? I'm hoping for top 2 or 3, otherwise we lose the chance for Rand to influence the narrative going into NH.

Statistics is an art and science.

THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2133
January 26-29, 2016

3,019 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district to conform to active voters in the Iowa voter registration list

602 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.0 percentage points for Republicans

602 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.0 percentage points for Democrats

[rich34]

I'm going to wait for the results on Monday. I'm not so sure about Trump....Cruz definitely has support and no one cares about his flaws or lies or treachery...Rubio, I'm not so sure about him...I don't think he will do as well as predicted unless the anti Cruz movement really accelerates, Carson is dead in the water, but who knows. All I can say as I am not that impressed with the Iowa voter. They have all of this opportunity to learn first hand about candidates but they are just as much in the dark as most people. I do not think they deserve to have the first dibs at the electoral process.

+rep from me, I admire your positive thinking.

[derek4ever]

I saw the results but i still think there's going to be a better performance for rand! Still think rand will be in the top 3! :)

[Krugminator2]

Making some assumptions:
- 90% of Ron's 2008 voters vote for Rand = 10,500
- 33% of the new Ron 2012 voters vote for Rand = 4,700
- 75% of the 10k Students for Rand turn out = 7,500

I can see Rand getting no less than 22,700 votes.



I think 2008 is the right comparison for this election however I think it is very unlikely he will get 90% of Ron's 2008 voter's. A huge part of Ron's coalition have views more in line what Trump is offering.

I think it is overwhelmingly likely he will outperform the polls.

[rich34]

Some back-of-the-napkin thoughts:

I have trouble seeing the GOP turnout much higher than 2012 (~120k) and 2008 (~120k). Based on the DMR poll, assuming 130k turnout, Paul's 5% = 6,500 votes. That also means Trump gets 36k votes and Cruz 30k.

I think 6,500 is an extremely low number given what we know about Rand's outreach.

Making some assumptions:
- 90% of Ron's 2008 voters vote for Rand = 10,500
- 33% of the new Ron 2012 voters vote for Rand = 4,700
- 75% of the 10k Students for Rand turn out = 7,500

I can see Rand getting no less than 22,700 votes.

Some factors at play that can break DMR's prediction:
- Cruz losing voters due to debate, TV talking heads, and weekend gaffes = Cruz does worse than polls
- Paul having an unexpected rise in support post-debate = Paul does better than polls
- Rubio being inflated by talking heads = Rubio does better than polls
- Trump supporters taking for granted his inevitability + campaign's (relatively) weak ground game = Trump does worse

In the end, who knows? I'm hoping for top 2 or 3, otherwise we lose the chance for Rand to influence the narrative going into NH.


Wow, that's one helluva analysis! Let's all hope this is even 80% accurate. I also understand polling is a science, but in this case it is one I don't understand and am going to have to see to believe! Come on Rand! Looking forward to seeing your dad at the rally tomorrow!

[lly4now]

I think 2008 is the right comparison for this election however I think it is very unlikely he will get 90% of Ron's 2008 voter's. A huge part of Ron's coalition have views more in line what Trump is offering.

I think it is overwhelmingly likely he will outperform the polls.

I reasoned that voters who were willing to vote for Ron that early are also critical thinkers who wouldn't be voting for Trump now, therefore Rand gets to retain a large percentage. But again, who knows? :]

[squirl22]

Was this poll taken before or after the debate?

[lly4now]

Was this poll taken before or after the debate?

They took the poll over Jan 26 to 29. The debate was on the 28th.

[vonMises]

As polls have to adjust for people who only use landlines, use cellphones, only use the internet (people who only participate in internet polls are becoming people of interest to pollsters), among so many other variables, pollsters have to adjust for these various variables as much as possible. Like any serious pollster, Ann Selzer has to admit or exclude individuals as she creates a representative sample of what she believes to be likely caucus goers. In doing so, she omitted close to two thousand people that were polled on obtaining this sample.

In other words, Rand can pull through with a decent finish if he actually does get out the vote and this poll turns out to be non-representative of the people who end up caucusing.

[squirl22]

They took the poll over Jan 26 to 29. The debate was on the 28th.

Ok, pre-debate. As far as I am concerned, it is meaningless...there are still lots of undecided most of whom have a positive view of Rand which means persuadable.

[nikcers]

Ok, pre-debate. As far as I am concerned, it is meaningless...there are still lots of undecided most of whom have a positive view of Rand which means persuadable.

yes, Rand was on the main debate which is a difference. The media narrative up until before the last debate was that there is only one debate. They pumped the whole season that debates and by proxy the polls matter, then Rand skips their scam and flips their script. Rand says no the voters matter, who wins the votes matters. He called their polling data quackery and even Trump is shitting his pants trying to get people to caucus now in Iowa at the last minute. They were really hoping their blackouts would win, I think that the more they black Rand out the better he will do.

[WTLaw]

I saw a graphic earlier that they are calling for an %80 chance of snow in Iowa. I actually happen to think this election is the one that is more fluid than any other. So many strange things are happening (the Cruz mailer, the rubio surge, trump not showing to the debate, the mismedication of Dr. Ben Carson so that he looks like he is gonna fall asleep on stage)... The polling could be correct for 3 days ago, and still not portray what we will see Monday.

[Brett85]

I saw a graphic earlier that they are calling for an %80 chance of snow in Iowa. I actually happen to think this election is the one that is more fluid than any other. So many strange things are happening (the Cruz mailer, the rubio surge, trump not showing to the debate, the mismedication of Dr. Ben Carson so that he looks like he is gonna fall asleep on stage)... The polling could be correct for 3 days ago, and still not portray what we will see Monday.

The vast majority of the snow is supposed to come down after 12 AM on Monday night, after the caucuses are over. The southwestern part of the state may get a little bit of rain mixed with snow during the caucuses, but that's it. At least that's what they're predicting right now.

[Peace&Freedom]

Some back-of-the-napkin thoughts:

I have trouble seeing the GOP turnout much higher than 2012 (~120k) and 2008 (~120k). Based on the DMR poll, assuming 130k turnout, Paul's 5% = 6,500 votes. That also means Trump gets 36k votes and Cruz 30k.

I think 6,500 is an extremely low number given what we know about Rand's outreach.

Making some assumptions:
- 90% of Ron's 2008 voters vote for Rand = 10,500
- 33% of the new Ron 2012 voters vote for Rand = 4,700
- 75% of the 10k Students for Rand turn out = 7,500

I can see Rand getting no less than 22,700 votes.

Some factors at play that can break DMR's prediction:
- Cruz losing voters due to debate, TV talking heads, and weekend gaffes = Cruz does worse than polls
- Paul having an unexpected rise in support post-debate = Paul does better than polls
- Rubio being inflated by talking heads = Rubio does better than polls
- Trump supporters taking for granted his inevitability + campaign's (relatively) weak ground game = Trump does worse

In the end, who knows? I'm hoping for top 2 or 3, otherwise we lose the chance for Rand to influence the narrative going into NH.

Based on this overview, I stand by my call that Rand will place second, as I think the above estimates are over-conservative. The captains are supposed to each bring Rand voters to the caucuses, so if only 7500 show up with 3 people each, that's an extra 2200 votes. Based on the 15% youth turnout in 2012, from a 130,000 turnout Monday that should be at least 2800 more votes based on Paul's 22% finish in 2012.

Those extra 5000 votes could put Rand at 28,000 total and be enough to get past Cruz if he loses 3,000 votes off the 30k estimated above. The last poll indicates Cruz votes are not peeling off to go to Rubio, and other reports show any Rubio 'surge' has flatlined. But the media may be able to use his 15% showing to talk him up enough to make that his floor in the actual vote turnout.

[nikcers]

I just can't see anyone who put any time trying to get Ron Paul elected to caucus against Rand unless its in spite. Even if there were someone who I perceived to be a better choice I would have trouble voting against Ron because of how much time i spent campaigning for the guy. I could see Rand not getting these people to turn out, but these were the same guys who pretended to support Romney and then nominated Ron in the Caucus, if any candidate got a former Ron Paul vote out, I could not see them voting against "Ron Paul" even though its not him, he is a chip off the ole block.

This could be my own bias, but I assume this is what carries people with names like Bush, but with Bush atleast you have reasons to vote against him, maybe you didn't like any of the policies his brother did, but Ron didn't get his chance, Rands is the next best thing, and I think most Ron Paul supporters know that in their hearts. If Rand can't touch the Ron Paul supporters hearts, then his dad will have to, this is the type of voter guilt we should be pushing. We need a presidential tear from a tear from Ron. Something that would tear at the heart strings.



http://i.imgur.com/bhG3NgW.jpg?1

[vonMises]

In the last couple of years, a good number of polls around the world have been wildly inaccurate.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/14/election-polling-errors-blamed-failure-speak-tory-voters (UK)
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/why-were-polls-so-wrong (UK)
http://www.redstate.com/2015/10/20/polls-wrong-canada-trudeau-wins-majority (Canada)
http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-israel-polls-wrong-20150318-story.html (Israel)

The most cited reason is that it's getting harder to reach a person that's going to vote. What had worked for this particular Des Moines Iowa poll was that they at least took the time and effort to contact people that only used cellphones and pretty much adjusted themselves to technological changes as they came. But more people have gotten cellphones as their only means of contact and have no way of being contacted any longer for a poll, let alone this particular poll. Even among the AARP crowd there might now be a preference to only do survey's by computer or tablet. So this poll, as well as others, may not have been adjusted to these developments (it would be very expensive to do so) and may in fact start getting things wrong in spite of their 28 year track record. So if the average GOP caucus goer can't be contacted, let alone the average Rand Paul supporter, this poll, and most polls going into the primary season should not have the weight that they did in the past.

[Matt Collins]

Carson at 10% is really good, dividing evangelicals.

Rand is gonna get top 3.
3rd place is possible, but I am betting he will get 4th place.


The real question is whether Trump gets 1st. If he does, then the nomination is over with.

[Matt Collins]

I would agree but Collins said it would be within the margin of error. I am completely baffled at this point as well and if these numbers are true and the campaign knew this then WHY the hell wasn't Ron Paul out on the campaign trail firing people up??
Ron is a double edged sword. While he can be a great asset, he can also be a huge liability.

[Matt Collins]

So you're saying Rand's ceiling may only be 10%? Please correct me if I'm wrong.
In the current situation, yes.

[simon1911]

3rd place is possible, but I am betting he will get 4th place.


The real question is whether Trump gets 1st. If he does, then the nomination is over with.

If Trump does win Iowa with a big margin, wouldn't it be more likely for the rest to form a coalition of anti Trump? I would imaginr 10% gets you a seat in the coalition.

[TheNewYorker]

3rd place is possible, but I am betting he will get 4th place.


The real question is whether Trump gets 1st. If he does, then the nomination is over with.

Agreed for once with the collins.

Rand takes 4th.

Cruz first. Trump 2nd. Rubio 3rd

[rp08orbust]

- 75% of the 10k Students for Rand turn out = 7,500

I'm seeing lots of assumptions like these about extremely high percentages (sometimes 100%) of Rand Paul supporters actually making it to the caucus and voting. Based on my experience robo-polling and follow-up calling of Ron Paul supporters for various straw polls and caucuses in 2011 and 2012, I can assure you that these assumptions are wildly optimistic. If the campaign and PACs can get even just 50% of those who have solemnly promised to attend the caucus as recently as an hour before hand to actually get their ass to the caucus, they will have achieved quite a feat.

If I were to realistically estimate Rand's turnout, I would start with the 5% from the DMR poll, multiply that by expected turnout of 130k, and then add perhaps a quarter of those identified by the campaign and PACs who are supposedly committed to voting for Rand in the caucus.

Another bad assumption that is often made is that these various groups of supporters are disjoint. In reality there will be significant overlap--more than you'd imagine.

With more realistic assumptions, I think you'll find that matching Ron Paul's 2012 Iowa caucus total is going to extremely tough.

[Matt Collins]

If Trump does win Iowa with a big margin, wouldn't it be more likely for the rest to form a coalition of anti Trump? I would imaginr 10% gets you a seat in the coalition.
Nope, because Trump will also win NH which is pretty much a given right now.

Winning both IA and NH creates a narrative that almost guarantees he is the presumptive nominee.

[Badger Paul]

"I'm not sure what people were expecting? "

That would be where Carson is at right now at 10 percent and climbing. Then the optimism would have been justified. Why would Carson still be at that level when his campaign has all but imploded? My guess is disaffected Cruz supporters drifted back to him. But they didn't go to Rand, that's for sure.

Now we have to believe the polls are completely messed up. Maybe they are and maybe there are 10,000 Iowa students or more going to vote for Rand Paul, we'll have to wait and see. Any poll is based upon the demographic groups polled and weighted so maybe they missed a lot of non-landline persons and students. There's always that hope. But I don't know how a fourth place finish unless it's really close to Rubio and takes everyone by surprise helps Rand jump start his campaign in New Hampshire, because that's what has to happen for this to continue.

[Badger Paul]

"I can assure you that these assumptions are wildly optimistic. If the campaign and PACs can get even just 50% of those who have solemnly promised to attend the caucus as recently as an hour before hand to actually get their ass to the caucus, they will have achieved quite a feat."

Oh, but kbs assured me when I asked whether the campaign had thousands of Rand Paul supporters all signed up and committed to caucus Monday that they did. In fact they think they can get 37,000 Paul voters by making a million phone calls in Iowa. Cross his heart and hope to die. Whom am I to argue with such certainty?

[rich34]

In the current situation, yes.

Well let's all hope and pray these polls are wrong and truly not picking up his support.

[Patrick Henry]

Oh, but kbs assured me when I asked whether the campaign had thousands of Rand Paul supporters all signed up and committed to caucus Monday that they did. In fact they think they can get 37,000 Paul voters by making a million phone calls in Iowa. Cross his heart and hope to die. Whom am I to argue with such certainty?

Who is kbs?

[Paulfan05]

4th for Rand isnt good enough, needs 3rd to make the debates

[RDM]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

[01000110]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?
I was wondering if they had that kind of breakdown of the data. That's interesting. Is there a source for this online?

[Peace&Freedom]

"I'm not sure what people were expecting? "

That would be where Carson is at right now at 10 percent and climbing. Then the optimism would have been justified. Why would Carson still be at that level when his campaign has all but imploded? My guess is disaffected Cruz supporters drifted back to him. But they didn't go to Rand, that's for sure.

Now we have to believe the polls are completely messed up. Maybe they are and maybe there are 10,000 Iowa students or more going to vote for Rand Paul, we'll have to wait and see. Any poll is based upon the demographic groups polled and weighted so maybe they missed a lot of non-landline persons and students. There's always that hope. But I don't know how a fourth place finish unless it's really close to Rubio and takes everyone by surprise helps Rand jump start his campaign in New Hampshire, because that's what has to happen for this to continue.

Carson seems to be, in Dr. Who terms, a Weeping Angel---he doesn't go anywhere when you are closely examining him, as America did in November, but look away, and he moves back up into double digits. As for the IA polls demographic weighting, it is simply a fact that they have consistently underrepresented the youth vote by a factor of 70% (youth vote turnout in 2012 was 15%, but the current polls sampled only 4% from that group). The male vote and independents have also been undersampled.

Since all the polls sponsored by the entire media undersampled the same way, my feeling is this was deliberate, a subtle way to do a blackout so as to suppress Rand in the polls, and thus kill his momentum. The MSM has demonstrated incredible solidarity and consistency in blacking out the Pauls over the years, from the entire media excluding Paul's name from nearly all polls done in 2007, to the entire media refraining from talking him up even when he was leading IA going into the caucus in 2012. So it's not that the polls are 'completely messed up,' it's that they have been consistently massaged to give the MSM cover to steer the reporting to the candidates they want.

[Peace&Freedom]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

And note that the DMR poll did NOT do a "last two days of the poll" breakdown to report a surge for Rand, the way it did in 2012 to invent the "Santorum surge." The media did not want to talk up a surge by Rand, so the pollsters didn't give them that news byte this time.

[TheNewYorker]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

Where were the other candidates on the day after the debate? Was rand still 5th with that 9%, or did he move up to 4th?

[Crashland]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

No, where did you hear that?

[RDM]

Where were the other candidates on the day after the debate? Was rand still 5th with that 9%, or did he move up to 4th?

I don't know. The couple of FaceBook posts that mentioned this did not go into detail. This info has to coming from someone with inside knowledge. But who?

[rich34]

And note that the DMR poll did NOT do a "last two days of the poll" breakdown to report a surge for Rand, the way it did in 2012 to invent the "Santorum surge." The media did not want to talk up a surge by Rand, so the pollsters didn't give them that news byte this time.

I could actually believe this because you know how bad the media would love to use that kind of info to push Rubio to already go along with the media narrative. However if that same info is also showing Rand surging just as much or even more I'd think they'd rather choose to keep that info quiet and keep the current narrative rather than having to acknowledge Rand is also surging as well. Is there no where online to find this info? If not then there could be some truth to this because you know they'd use this to push Rubio in a heart beat.

[ALibertarianInNewYork]

Being devil's advocate, we didn't see a rise in the polls after any other debate, so to expect otherwise this time is betting against historical performance.

[nikcers]

Being devil's advocate, we didn't see a rise in the polls after any other debate, so to expect otherwise this time is betting against historical performance.

The only poll following the debate is the Iowa Caucus. Are you a time traveler?

[ALibertarianInNewYork]

The only poll following the debate is the Iowa Caucus. Are you a time traveler?

I meant after the other GOP debates this primary cycle.

[RDM]

Being devil's advocate, we didn't see a rise in the polls after any other debate, so to expect otherwise this time is betting against historical performance.

That's because the other debates had a TV Reality Star turn the debates into a 3 ring circus...blocking out any substantial debate on Policy.

[Patrick Henry]

Rand could very well be beginning a surge. I mean he has been campaigning like crazy these last 2 weeks.

[CPUd]

I am hearing talk about poll analyst that say something is NOT being talked about regarding the Des Moines Register Poll. It polled potential caucus goers from January 26th to the 29th. Well the 29th was the day after the debate. Apparently, Rand was at 9% on that day alone! His best day of polling yet in Iowa! But it averaged out to 5% overall! Umm....that means that debate made a difference!

Anyone else see people talking about this?

I know Rubio was down the last day, so if Carson didn't move, or went down a few points, that poll would show a statistical tie for 3rd. Only issue with that is if you are taking just 1 day, that's around 150 polled, way too small a sample to be "significant".