Paul beats Bush 5 to 4 in Iowa 1/18-1/24 Quinnipiac Poll

[rp08orbust]

This is good news for getting into the final pre-Iowa caucus debate, I assume:

LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS...

Trump 31
Cruz 29
Rubio 13
Carson 7
Paul 5
Bush 4

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2318

[Liberty74]

I would think not. Beating Bush in a state is irrelevant. My understanding is there is an average rule nationally then if that is not met, one must poll at certain number in either Iowa or NH. Bush is in because of NH. Not sure if 5% gets Rand in.

[JJ2]

Trump 31
Cruz 29
Rubio 13
Carson 7
Paul 5
Bush 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 1
Fiorina 1
Santorum 0
Gilmore 0
DK/NA 2

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia01262016_Ihrb73p.pdf

Absolute worst case scenario as of right now is KBUR poll is included and Iowa State/WHO poll is not, which would result in Bush 4.2% Paul 4.0%, which rounded off is still a tie.

[rp08orbust]

This poll was just added to the RCP average, and pushes Rand Paul into 5th in Iowa at 3.8%, ahead of Bush at 3.7%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

My understanding is that this ought to qualify Rand for the main debate, though there are better experts than I am on exactly which polls Fox News will consider.

[CPUd]

I would think not. Beating Bush in a state is irrelevant. My understanding is there is an average rule nationally then if that is not met, one must poll at certain number in either Iowa or NH. Bush is in because of NH. Not sure if 5% gets Rand in.

Wow. Pretty much everything you posted here is completely wrong.

[squirl22]

Does this cinch the debate for Rand?..if only Carson would drop out...

[CPUd]

This poll was just added to the RCP average, and pushes Rand Paul into 5th in Iowa at 3.8%, ahead of Bush at 3.7%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

My understanding is that this ought to qualify Rand for the main debate, though there are better experts than I am on exactly which polls Fox News will consider.

They only include the latest 5, or 6 if the 5th was done concurrently with the 6th:

Definitely will include: Quinnipiac, ARG, FOX, CNN/ORC, DMR/Bloomberg
Definitely will not include: PPP, Gravis
Probably will not include: KBUR, CBS/YouGov
Probably will include : Loras, ISU

Current projection will have Rand and Bush tied for #5 in Iowa. The only way Bush beats him outright is if they include KBUR.

[rp08orbust]

Now if only Trump and Cruz rip each other to shreds in an ugly cage match on Thursday, leaving Rand as the serious and substantive anti-establishment alternative on the stage for their disgusted former supporters.

[CPUd]

Megyn Kelly will also be there to stir the pot.

[CPUd]

Does this cinch the debate for Rand?..if only Carson would drop out...

Based on what has been released so far, as long as they don't count the KBUR poll, he will at worst tie Bush for #5 in Iowa.

[rp08orbust]

Megyn Kelly will also be there to stir the pot.

Excellent! Though I thought Trump said he'd boycott if they brought her back.

[luctor-et-emergo]

Based on what has been released so far, as long as they don't count the KBUR poll, he will at worst tie Bush for #5 in Iowa.

What makes you think Fox wouldn't do that ? I'd like to believe they wouldn't but what is the precedent ?

[luctor-et-emergo]

Excellent! Though I thought Trump said he'd boycott if they brought her back.

He says a lot of things.

[SilentBull]

Yes, he has to be in now. Worst case scenario he's tied with Bush. There is no combination of polls that can keep him out.

EDIT: I guess there is one combination: If they include KBUR and exclude CBS.

[SilentBull]

Wow. Pretty much everything you posted here is completely wrong.

Everything he posts is the opposite of reality.

[CPUd]

KBUR is a robopoll, they want live polling.

[FriedChicken]

Could somebody put together a easy to understand graphic of recent polls and only have Rand Vs. Bush on it? Might be good to put on Fox's sites ahead of their announcement.

[luctor-et-emergo]

KBUR is a robopoll, they want live polling.

Ok, that makes sense. So in that case, unless a really bad poll comes out last-minute Rand is in ?

[Liberty74]

Wow. Pretty much everything you posted here is completely wrong.

Everything? Really? You're an idiot and have lost all credibility.

I just read the rules and I was spot on for the most part. Rand doesn't qualify nationally which is the average of polls. Must be top 6. CNN poll out today crushed that if included. Where I was slightly wrong was with the states. Must place average of top 5 in either instead of reaching a threshold. Bush makes it with NH polls easily, Rand does not in NH. Rand will be close in Iowa depending on which polls used.

[SilentBull]

Including CBS & KBUR:

Paul: 4.2
Bush: 3.8


Including CBS, Excluding KBUR:

Paul: 4
Bush: 3


Excluding CBS & KBUR

Paul: 4
Bush: 4

Excluding CBS, Including KBUR:

Paul: 4
Bush: 4.2

[SilentBull]

Dups

[limequat]

I think we can say with relative certainty that the CBS poll will not be included. It was skipped over in the last debate.
So the way I see it, worst case tie.

[rg17]

Ha! Ha! Santorum and Gilmore have 0%!

[Brett85]

Rand is trading at 93 cents to make the debate on PredictIt, so he's probably in.

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1938/Will-Rand-Paul-participate-in-the-first-tier-Fox-News-debate#data

[CPUd]

Everything? Really? You're an idiot and have lost all credibility.

I just read the rules and I was spot on for the most part. Rand doesn't qualify nationally which is the average of polls. Must be top 6. CNN poll out today crushed that if included. Where I was slightly wrong was with the states. Must place average of top 5 in either instead of reaching a threshold. Bush makes it with NH polls easily, Rand does not in NH. Rand will be close in Iowa depending on which polls used.

Good to know you are able to go back, read the rules and correct yourself. Next time, read the rules before posting about it.

[SilentBull]

KBUR is a robopoll, they want live polling.

Good to know. There's no way they can include that one then.

[kbs021]

I hope they use the Iowa State poll.. Kinda being ignored. Not the most recognized poll when looking at it, but I believe it meets the Criteria.. Similar situation as the IBD/TIPP poll that booted Huck and Christie off the main stage that one time.

[Joeinmo]

I would think not. Beating Bush in a state is irrelevant. My understanding is there is an average rule nationally then if that is not met, one must poll at certain number in either Iowa or NH. Bush is in because of NH. Not sure if 5% gets Rand in.

Its has nothing to do with percentages, it's about top 5 in either state poll or top 6 nationally.

[rich34]

I would think not. Beating Bush in a state is irrelevant. My understanding is there is an average rule nationally then if that is not met, one must poll at certain number in either Iowa or NH. Bush is in because of NH. Not sure if 5% gets Rand in.

What's up with the seemingly constant negativity? Thoughts hold more power than you know. It's time we all start praying for those that do or start focusing positive thoughts on Rand winning Iowa for those that do not!

[derek4ever]

Rand is going to be in!! I'm quite positive about it! And then Rand will drop truth-bombs and ends up getting the undecided voters to show up on Monday! Buckle up, buckaroo, we're in for a long trip to the infinity! For liberty!!! :D

[TheNewYorker]

Knowing Fox news, they will probably use the KBUR poll to keep Rand out.

[PCKY]

I would think not. Beating Bush in a state is irrelevant. My understanding is there is an average rule nationally then if that is not met, one must poll at certain number in either Iowa or NH. Bush is in because of NH. Not sure if 5% gets Rand in.
If they say top 5, and Rand averages in top 5 then he's there. Same for Bush in NH.

[CPUd]

691966684710735872

[JJ2]

Rand is going to be in!! I'm quite positive about it! And then Rand will drop truth-bombs and ends up getting the undecided voters to show up on Monday! Buckle up, buckaroo, we're in for a long trip to the infinity! For liberty!!! :D

He needs to destroy Ted Cruz on missing the Audit The Fed vote, even though it was a couple weeks ago now!

[EBounding]

Cruz could retort that Rand missed one of the Iran votes though.

[CPUd]

Cruz doesn't really attack in person. He just calls the other guy a liar.

[francisco]

I would think not. Beating Bush in a state is irrelevant. My understanding is there is an average rule nationally then if that is not met, one must poll at certain number in either Iowa or NH. Bush is in because of NH. Not sure if 5% gets Rand in.

-neg rep for boneheaded negativity. Now you have a little less "to be proud of".

If you wanted to find out what the ACTUAL rules for mainstage debate inclusion were, as opposed to your suppositions, a 30-second Google search would suffice.

The rules have also been posted here at several different times in several different threads here at RPF.
Here’s a link again.

http://press.foxnews.com/2016/01/fox-news-channel-announces-criteria-for-upcoming-republican-presidential-primary-debate/

[TheNewYorker]

He needs to destroy Ted Cruz on missing the Audit The Fed vote, even though it was a couple weeks ago now!

He needs to
1) Destroy Ted Cruz
2) Destroy all others
3) Mention his amazing ground game in Iowa
4) Reassert that he's the best against Clinton
5) Take on Trumps stupid wall idea, and assert that instead of a wall, it's much cheaper and easier to end the reasons that illegals cross the border to begin with, such as employment and drivers licenses to illegals. No matter how strong of a wall that gets built, they will still find a way as long as they have a good reason to come here.
6) Mention how Fox keeps leaving him off poll results, as evidenced by this video



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QcbaMCfzW0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QcbaMCfzW0

7) He needs to stop saying "I think"
8) needs to insult Obama, boobus loves that

[Isaac Bickerstaff]

5) Take on Trumps stupid wall idea, and assert that instead of a wall, it's much cheaper and easier to end the reasons that illegals cross the border to begin with, such as employment and drivers licenses to illegals. No matter how strong of a wall that gets built, they will still find a way as long as they have a good reason to come here.


The wall is stupid. One of my vendors has a son who worked on a border fence section. Overnight, tire tracks showed up on either side of the fence section they had just built. They found a teeter-totter truck that had been built for the purpose of driving over the fence.
The people who want to come across the border are smarter than the people who want to build a wall.

[Kotin]

Everything? Really? You're an idiot and have lost all credibility.

I just read the rules and I was spot on for the most part. Rand doesn't qualify nationally which is the average of polls. Must be top 6. CNN poll out today crushed that if included. Where I was slightly wrong was with the states. Must place average of top 5 in either instead of reaching a threshold. Bush makes it with NH polls easily, Rand does not in NH. Rand will be close in Iowa depending on which polls used.

lol neg repping me for telling you to follow the guidelines is a great idea.


keep breaking the guidelines and being a dick to other posters and see how long you last here.

[PCKY]

He needs to
1) Destroy Ted Cruz
2) Destroy all others
3) Mention his amazing ground game in Iowa
4) Reassert that he's the best against Clinton
5) Take on Trumps stupid wall idea, and assert that instead of a wall, it's much cheaper and easier to end the reasons that illegals cross the border to begin with, such as employment and drivers licenses to illegals. No matter how strong of a wall that gets built, they will still find a way as long as they have a good reason to come here.
6) Mention how Fox keeps leaving him off poll results, as evidenced by this video



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QcbaMCfzW0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QcbaMCfzW0

7) He needs to stop saying "I think"
8) needs to insult Obama, boobus loves that
They're going to make an issue about Jim Grey, who has zero chance of taking Rand's Senate seat. He was picked and pushed by the National DNC who has no idea how awful he is for US Senate. KY Dems will not only be staying home, they will be hiding in the basement! But I will bet money that Rand has to defend his two race choice...ohh RNC! We might lose another Senate seat...ugh. He should invoke the name of Paul Ryan...but his Senate seat is not in jeopardy.