New ARG Poll just out Rand beating Bush by 1%

[Joeinmo]

http://americanresearchgroup.com

Rand beating Bush by 1% in Iowa

Rand and Bush are in a tie now

[CPUd]

403

[r3volution 3.0]

Iowa



Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers
Jan 6-10
Jan 21-24





Bush
3%
3%


Carson
8%
7%


Christie
6%
4%


Cruz
25%
26%


Fiorina
1%
1%


Gilmore
-
-


Huckabee
2%
2%


Kasich
3%
3%


Paul
4%
4%


Rubio
10%
11%


Santorum

2%
1%


Trump

29%
33%


Other

1%
1%


Undecided

5%
5%



Has this poll ever been used in any previous debate? The name doesn't ring a bell.

[CPUd]

Iowa



Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers
Jan 6-10
Jan 21-24





Bush
3%
3%


Carson
8%
7%


Christie
6%
4%


Cruz
25%
26%


Fiorina
1%
1%


Gilmore
-
-


Huckabee
2%
2%


Kasich
3%
3%


Paul
4%
4%


Rubio
10%
11%


Santorum

2%
1%


Trump

29%
33%


Other

1%
1%


Undecided

5%
5%



Has this poll ever been used in any previous debate? The name doesn't ring a bell.

Yes, FBN used them for the previous debate.

[r3volution 3.0]

403

Works for me


Yes, FBN used them for the previous debate.

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/60861237.jpg

[kbs021]

I thought we were done with polling coming out lol whew! Geez for once, stop releasing polls! Christie is catching up now. The only one that may come out would be Monmouth and that worries me... One of the worst.

[CPUd]

This ARG will replace the 1/6 - 1/10 one, Rand and Jeb had the same numbers there. We definitely don't want any more polls unless Rand is 5% or higher and Jeb is 3% or lower.

[SilentBull]

Nice! So if they decide to include KBUR and CBS/YouGov, Rand still ties Bush because this gets rid of the Loras one.

[kbs021]

This ARG will replace the 1/6 - 1/10 one, Rand and Jeb had the same numbers there.
That is assuming they don't use the CBS poll... IF they release another poll, we may need that one to count. I wasn't planning on the older arg one.

[CPUd]

I'm looking now to see if the other Fox debates used CBS/YouGov. I know one of the networks did.

FBN did not use CBS/YouGov last time when they could have.

[CPUd]

OK, CBS/YouGov wasn't used in the previous Fox debates, because those only relied on national polling, and CBS/YouGov only does statewide polling. For national, CBS sometimes partners with NYT.

YouGov uses results from those content locker dialogs you see when you read online newspapers like Gannett. "answer this poll to read the article" type of dialogs.

[SilentBull]

OK, CBS/YouGov wasn't used in the previous Fox debates, because those only relied on national polling, and CBS/YouGov only does statewide polling. For national, CBS sometimes partners with NYT.

YouGov uses results from those content locker dialogs you see when you read online newspapers like Gannett. "answer this poll to read the article" type of dialogs.

KBUR was never used though, right?

[laurak]

691691842472116224
691691866828509186
691691898000523266
691691912118558720
691691928757391360

[JJ2]

Ok, this is good because it means that they would have to throw out the highly-respected Des Moines Register poll in order to include KBUR. Hopefully they will not do that.

[kbs021]

I'm looking now to see if the other Fox debates used CBS/YouGov. I know one of the networks did.

FBN did not use CBS/YouGov last time when they could have.

Also if they count it, Loras poll just got dropped! And IF we get another poll, even if they counted KBUR, it would be dropped. I actually think we may be fairly safe

[Crashland]

There is still a chance that a bad poll could come along and fart on the liberty movement by putting Bush up to 8%

[CPUd]

Chip is counting the same polls I had listed. Those would have Rand and Jeb tied for #5.

[CPUd]

KBUR was never used though, right?

Never used, but never had an opportunity to be used.

[Brett85]

I don't know how we know for sure which polls they're going to use.

[CPUd]

I don't know how we know for sure which polls they're going to use.

We don't, we are going by what has been used (or skipped over) in the past. But as of now, there are more combinations of polls that will include Rand than those that will put him out.

[Joeinmo]

I don't know how we know for sure which polls they're going to use.

yes Rand probably will have some higher or polls that show him the same, but what you really have to look at is how much Jeb is crashing. He will not go higher than he has been in Iowa, he is on a pretty hard curve down from Nov to today. So if another poll comes out like this one did it will probably show Bush done in Iowa.

[01000110]

Poll
Date
Sample
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Paul
Bush
Christie
Huckabee
Kasich
Fiorina
Santorum
Spread


RCP Average
1/15 - 1/24
--
33.6
27.2
11.8
7.2
3.6
3.6
3.0
2.2
2.0
1.4
1.2
Trump +6.4


ARG (http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/iarep.html)
1/21 - 1/24
400 LV
33
26
11
7
4
3
4
2
3
1
1
Trump +7


FOX News (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/22/fox-news-poll-iowa-presidential-primary/)
1/18 - 1/21
378 LV
34
23
12
7
6
4
4
2
2
1
2
Trump +11


CBS News/YouGov (https://www.scribd.com/doc/296490961/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa-January-2016)
1/18 - 1/21
492 LV
39
34
13
5
3
1
2
0
1
1
1
Trump +5


CNN/ORC (http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-full-results-cnn-orc/index.html)
1/15 - 1/20
266 LV
37
26
14
6
2
3
1
3
1
1
1
Trump +11


KBUR (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/IowaGOPCaucusPollJan2016.pdf)
1/18 - 1/19
687 LV
25
27
9
11
3
7
4
4
3
3
1
Cruz +2

[Anti-Neocon]

yes Rand probably will have some higher or polls that show him the same, but what you really have to look at is how much Jeb is crashing. He will not go higher than he has been in Iowa, he is on a pretty hard curve down from Nov to today. So if another poll comes out like this one did it will probably show Bush done in Iowa.
That's good because if one more poll comes out, and Rand tied with Bush, then Rand will be 6th according to likely FOX criteria. Rand would need to beat him by 1 or more.

[Joeinmo]

Freaking KBUR is so off track

[Joeinmo]

That's good because if one more poll comes out, and Rand tied with Bush, then Rand will be 6th according to likely FOX criteria. Rand would need to beat him by 1 or more.

hmmmm...so what is the tie breaker? I always thought if two candidates tied in any one of the 3 national, Iowa, NH - both candidates are in.

[CPUd]

hmmmm...so what is the tie breaker? I always thought if two candidates tied in any one of the 3 national, Iowa, NH - both candidates are in.

Arm wrestling match. Best 2 out of 3.

[Krugminator2]

It looks like Rand is just on the right side of the cut but it could go either way.

I will be curious to see how Fox responds if he does just miss. One argument for Fox keeping Rand out is his snubbing the last debate. The argument for Fox giving Rand the benefit of the doubt in a close decision is that it would be an embarrassment for Fox if Rand finishes third with 10-12% in the Caucus and Fox excluded him from the last two debates. From what I have read in multiple places, Rand is the most likely to upside surprise vs the polls. I predict Fox takes that into account.

[rich34]

Arm wrestling match. Best 2 out of 3.

Cool my money is on Rand.

[robskicks]

an embarrassment for Fox if Rand finishes third with 10-12% in the Caucus and Fox excluded him from the last two debates.

i doubt fox would be embarrassed

[Krugminator2]

i doubt fox would be embarrassed

I still think it will factor in on some level. Ron Paul did much better than the polls in 2008. And I read a few of things different Iowa people have said like Steve Deace about the caucus and the consensus is Rand could conceivably get low double digits if things go well. I just think they will cover themselves. There wouldn't be any downside from their perspective in letting Rand into the debate.

[derek4ever]

I still think it will factor in on some level. Ron Paul did much better than the polls in 2008. And I read a few of things different Iowa people have said like Steve Deace about the caucus and the consensus is Rand could conceivably get low double digits if things go well. I just think they will cover themselves. There wouldn't be any downside from their perspective in letting Rand into the debate.

I sincerely think NOW we're between Ron's '08 numbers and Ron's '12 numbers. So I think Rand is between 12 and 15% considering the vastly experienced caucus team Rand must have and considering his campaign manager in the state has been in the whole process in the past. And then there's the room for the last minute wagenhoppers who can give Rand a wonderful result (students that may have liked Ron in 08 and/or 12 but we're never in school to caucus for him, new first-time caucusgoers, etc.) :D

[Joeinmo]

It looks like Rand is just on the right side of the cut but it could go either way.

I will be curious to see how Fox responds if he does just miss. One argument for Fox keeping Rand out is his snubbing the last debate. The argument for Fox giving Rand the benefit of the doubt in a close decision is that it would be an embarrassment for Fox if Rand finishes third with 10-12% in the Caucus and Fox excluded him from the last two debates. From what I have read in multiple places, Rand is the most likely to upside surprise vs the polls. I predict Fox takes that into account.


I feel most people are looking at this wrong the 2 month trend is Rand is rising, although slowly but steady in the polls in Iowa, but Bush on the other hand has been on a spiral down, he is no longer running tv ads, he will continue to go down in Iowa, the next poll should see Bush drop again.

[CPUd]

Rand can outright win in Iowa.

[derek4ever]

Rand can outright win in Iowa.

May the lord listen to you!!! :cool:

[CPUd]

May the lord listen to you!!! :cool:

I'll settle for the phone bankers and caucusgoers.

[derek4ever]

I'll settle for the phone bankers and caucusgoers.

As well!! Do you have any idea how many more polls we can expect from Iowa? I read on Twitter there's 1 poll that should help Rand clear the debate threshold (I'm guessing Rand would need to beat Jeb by 2-3%, just to avoid any polls from shifting trying to screw Rand)?? :o

[01000110]

Is this trustworthy?
691764710505586688

[Joeinmo]

Is this trustworthy?
691764710505586688

Jan 26 by 8am all polls have to be in

[francisco]

Jan 26 by 8am all polls have to be in

Actually, cutoff time is 5 PM Eastern, Tuesday Jan. 26


FOX NEWS CHANNEL ANNOUNCES CRITERIA FOR UPCOMING REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY DEBATE


FOX News Channel (FNC) announced today that it will present two Republican presidential primary debates on Thursday, January 28th live from the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa.

The criteria for inclusion in the debates will factor in both national polls, as well as those based in Iowa and New Hampshire conducted and released prior to Tuesday, January 26th at 5PM/ET. The primetime debate will feature candidates that place in the top six spots nationally, or place within the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire.

The earlier debate will be presented at 7PM/ET and will be moderated by America’s Newsroom co-anchors Bill Hemmer and Martha MacCallum. The primetime debate will begin at 9PM/ET, moderated by Special Report anchor Bret Baier, The Kelly File anchor Megyn Kelly and FOX News Sunday host Chris Wallace.

FOX News announced the entry criteria as follows:
•In order to qualify for the primetime debate, candidates must place in the top six spots nationally in an average of the five most recent national polls, or place within the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire in an average of the five most recent Iowa or New Hampshire polls recognized by FOX News.
•In order to qualify for the early debate, candidates must register at least one percent in ONE of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News.

Such polling must be conducted by major nationally and state recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques (i.e., live interviewers, include both landlines and cellphones, and employ either random digit-dial or registration-based sampling methodologies).


http://press.foxnews.com/2016/01/fox-news-channel-announces-criteria-for-upcoming-republican-presidential-primary-debate/

[alucard13mm]

When attending the next debate.. his opening should be.

"Guess who's back. Back again. Randal's back. Tell a friend."

[Joeinmo]

Actually, cutoff time is 5 PM Eastern, Tuesday Jan. 26



http://press.foxnews.com/2016/01/fox-news-channel-announces-criteria-for-upcoming-republican-presidential-primary-debate/


Huh, is that different than last one ?

[randbot16]

I just got an email from the campaign saying he's in. Could be trying to force the notion, and it may not be official, but I think he is in.

[francisco]

Huh, is that different than last one ?

Yes, cutoff is 23 hours later in relative terms this time.

[derek4ever]

When attending the next debate.. his opening should be.

"Guess who's back. Back again. Randal's back. Tell a friend."


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVkUvmDQ3HY

[LibertyExplorer]

"So the media won't let me be, or let me be me so let me see, they try to shut me down on FNC but it feels so empty without me!"

[derek4ever]

"So the media won't let me be, or let me be me so let me see, they try to shut me down on FNC but it feels so empty without me!"

Ain't that the truth!? :D

[somename043]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

atleast one more coming out tomorrow. Has fox used quinnipiac before?

[francisco]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

atleast one more coming out tomorrow. Has fox used quinnipiac before?

Yes, as basis for both National and Iowa averages for debate qualifications

Last Iowa Quinnipiac was 1/5 thru 1/10 and had Rand 2, Bush 3

[Joeinmo]

Yes, as basis for both National and Iowa averages for debate qualifications

Last Iowa Quinnipiac was 1/5 thru 1/10 and had Rand 2, Bush 3

if Quinnipiac comes in, even if Rand gets 2%, what it does is drops KBUR where Bush has 7% and Rand has 3%. (This is a huge poll for Rand to have drop off in a good way)

so even if Bush gets 6% and Rand gets 2% - but I doubt that Bush even jumps to 4% or 5% when every metric has him nose diving in Iowa - Rand would still be in.

Rand has been up in every poll in Iowa as far as I can tell

[francisco]

Unfortunately, Quinnipiac if it comes in and is used displaces the Des Moines Register (Rand +1 versus Bush) poll

Regardless of outcome with Quinnipiac (or other polls), If KBUR is used, we’re likely screwed because that one is a very bad outlier with Rand at -4 versus Bush. Note that the Campaign’s Chip Englander did not mention this poll in today’s tweet and presumably does not think it meets the standard for inclusion.

The current order of already-released Iowa polls that are possible candidates for inclusion, from most recent to least recent, with score versus Bush shown in parentheses, are:
ARG (Rand +1)
Fox (Rand +2)
CNN/ORC (Rand -1)
KBUR (Rand -4) (Campaign’s Chip Englander does not think this one meets standard for inclusion)
Loras (Rand -3)
Des Moines Register (Rand +1)

Therefore we want Quinnipiac, if it comes in before deadline, to be +1 or better versus Bush for Rand

Another possible saving grace might be the WHO-HD / Iowa State University poll which isn’t shown yet on RCP but appears to meet the standard for using live interviews. That poll is +3 for Rand versus Bush. Obviously if this one was included it kicks out DMR but improves Rand’s net score, to in fact beat (not merely tie) Bush.