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View Full Version : Rand Paul campaign has 2,000 pledges from Iowa State University.. Look at how huge this is!




kbs021
01-19-2016, 02:54 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/19/rand-paul-iowa-poll-caucus-youth-vote This is the link for the story where the 2,000 number comes from.

Iowa State University is located in Story County.. Looking at 2012 results Ron Paul got 1,088 votes falling short of winning the county by a mere 10 votes. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa

Just think how huge it would be if Rand turned out 1,000+ of just college students!!!!! And guess what.. They have a caucus site on the campus.. Guys this is going to be very interesting..

Jonderdonk
01-19-2016, 02:55 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/19/rand-paul-iowa-poll-caucus-youth-vote This is the link for the story where the 2,000 number comes from.

Iowa State University is located in Story County.. Looking at 2012 results Ron Paul got 1,088 votes falling short of winning the county by a mere 10 votes. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa

Just think how huge it would be if Rand turned out 1,000+ of just college students!!!!! And guess what.. They have a caucus site on the campus.. Guys this is going to be very interesting..

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to kbs021 again.

dillo
01-19-2016, 02:56 PM
It's happening.jpg

phill4paul
01-19-2016, 03:03 PM
I hate to get my hopes up that America's young adults will turnout...but, I'm getting my hopes up. Even if it doesn't swing the caucus it will be a serious in-road for the future. We'll see. :)

derek4ever
01-19-2016, 03:05 PM
WOOOOOT WOOOOOOT!!! Take that you MSM witches and ghouls!! RAND RAND RAAAAAAAANNNDDDD!! :cool:

eleganz
01-19-2016, 04:10 PM
Everybody hide before Liberty74 comes in here with his senior vote rage posts.

01000110
01-19-2016, 04:13 PM
Alright Youths... it's up to you, don't let us old guys down.

bunklocoempire
01-19-2016, 04:53 PM
Rand Paul or GTFO

"senior vote rage posts" lol

mello
01-19-2016, 06:36 PM
If 2,000 pledges are from one college, then what are the pledge totals from other Iowa colleges?

CPUd
01-19-2016, 06:37 PM
over 9,000

Liberty74
01-19-2016, 06:47 PM
Everybody hide before Liberty74 comes in here with his senior vote rage posts.

I'm here! LOL

Rage? Dear god, stop being so delusional. It's old people that vote. And unless Rand is competitive with that old vote which accounts for like 65% of the vote for god sake, the 2K above isn't going to help Rand place in the top 3. It's very basic math. 95% of you failed that simple equation in 2012. We shall see what happens in 2 weeks.

If held today with 10K student votes, Rand would be around 8-12%. For some reason Trump is killing it with the old and evangelicals which I don't get. That's how a person wins Iowa. Rand knows this and so does Chip. Ron found that out as well.

kbs021
01-19-2016, 06:51 PM
2k would win him the entire county.. From one school.. And yes we get that. Rand's phone calls have been all older people last few months. We are fighting for every vote. Youth, libertarian, liberty republican, etc.

ChristianAnarchist
01-19-2016, 06:52 PM
I'm here! LOL

Rage? Dear god, stop being so delusional. It's old people that vote. And unless Rand is competitive with that old vote which accounts for like 65% of the vote for god sake, the 2K above isn't going to help Rand place in the top 3. It's very basic math. 95% of you failed that simple equation in 2012. We shall see what happens in 2 weeks.

If held today with 10K student votes, Rand would be around 8-12%. For some reason Trump is killing it with the old and evangelicals which I don't get. That's how a person wins Iowa. Rand knows this and so does Chip. Ron found that out as well.

Lets hope you are wrong... Have you ever been wrong before??

kbs021
01-19-2016, 06:57 PM
To think that Rand's ceiling is 8-12, in my opinion, is wrong. Too many 2012 Ron Supporters out there. They aren't being polled (evidenced by the DMR Poll).. After hearing that CAV pac identified 38k potential voters, I think Rand's ceiling is closer to 30 percent. I would be shocked if we don't get 20-25k voters. We will find out in 13 days.

Joeinmo
01-19-2016, 07:07 PM
I'm here! LOL

Rage? Dear god, stop being so delusional. It's old people that vote. And unless Rand is competitive with that old vote which accounts for like 65% of the vote for god sake, the 2K above isn't going to help Rand place in the top 3. It's very basic math. 95% of you failed that simple equation in 2012. We shall see what happens in 2 weeks.

If held today with 10K student votes, Rand would be around 8-12%. For some reason Trump is killing it with the old and evangelicals which I don't get. That's how a person wins Iowa. Rand knows this and so does Chip. Ron found that out as well.

well huge difference, school was out in 2012, you can't take a caucus if all the college voters are spread all over Iowa, but if they are concentrated in one area, you take that county, plus it's a whole lot easier if you have 1000 people around the state directing the student caucus goers and old people, the neocons old media types are croaking. Last time when we took our county for Rand in Missouri half were dead from when we last seen them in 2008.

derek4ever
01-19-2016, 07:15 PM
I think big turnout will help 2 candidates: rand and trump. Don't have to agree with me but what if rand and trump get the 1-2? Cruz is going down and i'd keep an eye on rufio!

69360
01-19-2016, 07:18 PM
It would be great if it happens. Kids pledge to do lots of things. Getting them to venture out in winter and stand in a basement full of old people is another. I think they won't show. I also think Rand will get around 5th in IA. Let's hope I'm wrong.

kbs021
01-19-2016, 07:21 PM
It would be great if it happens. Kids pledge to do lots of things. Getting them to venture out in winter and stand in a basement full of old people is another. I think they won't show. I also think Rand will get around 5th in IA. Let's hope I'm wrong.

Although that's possible.. It has become evident that the large campuses are having caucuses on the campuses.. That is a huge development. They can probably walk there.. I think we can do this.

ChristianAnarchist
01-19-2016, 07:24 PM
It would be great if it happens. Kids pledge to do lots of things. Getting them to venture out in winter and stand in a basement full of old people is another. I think they won't show. I also think Rand will get around 5th in IA. Let's hope I'm wrong.

I wouldn't count out the youth. They are easily excited (and just as easily defeated) by new ideas and new things. "Getting involved" is a new thing to the youth (throughout history) and they are eager to plunge into something but if that something turns out to be a huge disappointment (aka politics) then are quick to exit. Lets hope the excitement continues through the election cycle!

Jonderdonk
01-19-2016, 07:30 PM
I think big turnout will help 2 candidates: rand and trump

There is an inverse relationship between the percentage support for candidates with a passionate base and total voter turnout. Operating under the assumption that Rand has disproportionately high passionate support, a large voter turnout would not be good for him.

laissez faire
01-19-2016, 08:04 PM
To think that Rand's ceiling is 8-12, in my opinion, is wrong. Too many 2012 Ron Supporters out there. They aren't being polled (evidenced by the DMR Poll).. After hearing that CAV pac identified 38k potential voters, I think Rand's ceiling is closer to 30 percent. I would be shocked if we don't get 20-25k voters. We will find out in 13 days.

Ron got 26k in 2012 when the Democrats didn't have a contest, so some of Ron's supporters are surely going for Bernie this time. The bigger defection though will be to all the Republican outsiders that were not there in '12, Trump in particular. The fatal conceit is to believe all of those 26k in 2012 were 'true believers' like those of us who are/have been activists for the Pauls. For Rand, 15k out of 125k votes would be quite an accomplishment that would be 12% and make him a big story coming out of Iowa.

derek4ever
01-19-2016, 08:06 PM
There is an inverse relationship between the percentage support for candidates with a passionate base and total voter turnout. Operating under the assumption that Rand has disproportionately high passionate support, a large voter turnout would not be good for him.

I think that high turnout could be helpful for Rand if it means that a big % of them are hardcore Rand votes. I should've been specific about that! ;)

ds21089
01-19-2016, 08:07 PM
over 9,000

http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/sixguns/images/7/7b/It-s-over-9000-its-over-9000-29849302-496-370.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140714164444

Brett85
01-19-2016, 08:46 PM
I'm here! LOL

Rage? Dear god, stop being so delusional. It's old people that vote. And unless Rand is competitive with that old vote which accounts for like 65% of the vote for god sake, the 2K above isn't going to help Rand place in the top 3. It's very basic math. 95% of you failed that simple equation in 2012. We shall see what happens in 2 weeks.

If held today with 10K student votes, Rand would be around 8-12%. For some reason Trump is killing it with the old and evangelicals which I don't get. That's how a person wins Iowa. Rand knows this and so does Chip. Ron found that out as well.

No one is saying that Rand is "only" going to get the votes of 10,000 college students. Rand said in an interview that they're hoping to get the votes of 10,000 college students, 10,000 independents, and 10,000 liberty Republicans. The college students are just part of the strategy.

kbs021
01-19-2016, 09:06 PM
No one is saying that Rand is "only" going to get the votes of 10,000 college students. Rand said in an interview that they're hoping to get the votes of 10,000 college students, 10,000 independents, and 10,000 liberty Republicans. The college students are just part of the strategy.

Very true. This gives Rand an incredible floor. Knowing you have the college vote is a huge thing. But we aren't stopping there. Those 38k potential voters that CAV pac identified are those independents and liberty voters.

EBounding
01-19-2016, 09:06 PM
At least we'll learn once and for all whether the youth/college vote is worth it.

Brett85
01-19-2016, 09:21 PM
If 2,000 pledges are from one college, then what are the pledge totals from other Iowa colleges?


over 9,000

Where did you get that number from? Just wondering.

CPUd
01-19-2016, 09:33 PM
Where did you get that number from? Just wondering.

It was a joke.
http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/sixguns/images/7/7b/It-s-over-9000-its-over-9000-29849302-496-370.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140714164444

But probably much closer to the real number than 2,000.

kbs021
01-19-2016, 09:34 PM
Where did you get that number from? Just wondering.

Read the article listed in the OP. It's listed there by a volunteer.

CPUd
01-19-2016, 09:36 PM
FWIW, the campaign message from yesterday says they need 27K votes to win Iowa.

Rudeman
01-20-2016, 05:38 AM
Ron got 26k in 2012 when the Democrats didn't have a contest, so some of Ron's supporters are surely going for Bernie this time. The bigger defection though will be to all the Republican outsiders that were not there in '12, Trump in particular. The fatal conceit is to believe all of those 26k in 2012 were 'true believers' like those of us who are/have been activists for the Pauls. For Rand, 15k out of 125k votes would be quite an accomplishment that would be 12% and make him a big story coming out of Iowa.

Say half of the Ron Paul supporters stick with Rand (with the rest either not voting, or going to Bernie, Trump, or Cruz) that's 13k and half of the 10k students show up, so 5k. That's 18k, maybe Rand picks up another 1 or 2k elsewhere and he's around 20k which would likely be a top 3 finish. 20k is doable and who knows if his polling starts to shift upwards that could attract some of the undecideds or soft supporters from the other candidates.

dancjm
01-20-2016, 06:28 AM
Ron got 26k in 2012 when the Democrats didn't have a contest, so some of Ron's supporters are surely going for Bernie this time. The bigger defection though will be to all the Republican outsiders that were not there in '12, Trump in particular. The fatal conceit is to believe all of those 26k in 2012 were 'true believers' like those of us who are/have been activists for the Pauls. For Rand, 15k out of 125k votes would be quite an accomplishment that would be 12% and make him a big story coming out of Iowa.

Now consider all those people who felt they could not support Ron in 2012, those people who bought into the "unelectable" narrative. Those people who felt they could not listen to or support a candidate who wasn't particularly "polished" for TV viewing. Those people who felt that Ron Paul did not reflect the GOP.

I'm pretty sure there will be a significant number of people on the flip side of what you are saying. You are talking about people who supported Ron who may not support Rand, and I guess that is somewhat valid, although I'm yet to hear from anyone who supported Ron in 2012 and this time is supporting establishment candidate x or y. You should remember though that there will be a significant number of people for whom the opposite is true. They were not onboard for whatever reason in 2012, but feel differently this time around, when it comes to a young senator with a more effective delivery style and who seems more relevant as a GOP candidate.

Wrong or right, the prevailing attitude was that Ron didn't actually stand a chance of winning, and we had the success that we had despite that attitude.

Hard as they try to convince people that the same is true of Rand, it clearly doesn't stick. Show me a straw poll Rand has not won. Show me another GOP candidate who beats the Dem candidates in a match-up poll. Rand is entirely electable, and it shows. I imagine that if this had been a 2 or 3 horse race as in previous years, we'd be strolling to the nomination.

It will end up being a 2 or 3 horse race pretty soon, and when it is, and people can see that Rand is in the race, then peoples minds will focus. Who is the least electable candidate in a general - Trump. And the most - Rand. Who is actually a real conservative?

I actually don't believe that this will come down to the die hard Ron supporters in the end. To get us there they will be vital. But in the end, when Republican voters have a clear cut choice, and they know who is in and who is out of the race and what those candidates stand for, I think then we'll find that we end up with more support from more quarters than we could have imagined. All we need is for the field to narrow to 2 or 3 candidates, I think then we will win a decent proportion of your average Joe GOP voter (whom everyone seems to be discounting) along side the youth and minority support which we already have.

rich34
01-20-2016, 06:56 AM
The one poll where they polled 5% of Ron's caucus goers all going to Rand is a big silver lining for me. If that's a trend that can carry over to where Rand is able to maintain and turnout even 90% of Ron's voters from 2012 added in with the fact that college will be in session with caucuses being held on campus and I think it's very easy to see why the Rand campaign is very excited. Ron only needed another 3,000 votes or so to win in 2012 and had college been in session with caucuses being held on campus he could have easily won. Now I understand that the enthusiasm may not be as strong for Rand, but supposedly Rand's ground game is far superior to what Ron had. Assuming (I know) all this cancels each other out the college strategy "should" put Rand's vote total higher than Ron's. How much so will be the telling factor as to whether he wins or not. I still think a late surprise visit by Ron to Iowa to make sure those college kids get out to vote would be a good thing for Rand. I would't worry what the media says because they're going to spin it regardless. Hell Glen Beck is supposedly going to head there to campaign for Cruz why can't Ron not do the same for Rand? To hell with what they say.

Liberty74
01-20-2016, 06:09 PM
Lets hope you are wrong... Have you ever been wrong before??

Yes! I thought Trump would have imploded by September/October. I was wrong. But I did predict Carson would tank which he certainly did. I do think Cruz will suffer a blow to his support in the next 2 weeks in Iowa due to several issues like his eligibility, etc. One can only hope Rand benefits. Who else would Cruz's supporters go to? Highly doubt they will go back to Carson.

squirl22
01-20-2016, 07:59 PM
I do think Cruz will suffer a blow to his support in the next 2 weeks in Iowa due to several issues like his eligibility, etc. One can only hope Rand benefits. Who else would Cruz's supporters go to? Highly doubt they will go back to Carson.

Doing phone calling and Cruz is definitely taking away supporters from Rand....I think Cruz will be losing support to some extent....hope so.

Mani
01-21-2016, 12:50 AM
Yes! I thought Trump would have imploded by September/October. I was wrong. But I did predict Carson would tank which he certainly did. I do think Cruz will suffer a blow to his support in the next 2 weeks in Iowa due to several issues like his eligibility, etc. One can only hope Rand benefits. Who else would Cruz's supporters go to? Highly doubt they will go back to Carson.


Unfortunately I think some of them go to Rubio.

derek4ever
01-21-2016, 01:04 AM
Unfortunately I think some of them go to Rubio.

The beltway are really hoping Rufio can pull off the same thing Kerry did in Iowa '04. Let's see how this plays out for Rand!! :cool:

idiom
01-21-2016, 03:19 AM
I'm here! LOL

Rage? Dear god, stop being so delusional. It's old people that vote. And unless Rand is competitive with that old vote which accounts for like 65% of the vote for god sake, the 2K above isn't going to help Rand place in the top 3. It's very basic math. 95% of you failed that simple equation in 2012. We shall see what happens in 2 weeks.

If held today with 10K student votes, Rand would be around 8-12%. For some reason Trump is killing it with the old and evangelicals which I don't get. That's how a person wins Iowa. Rand knows this and so does Chip. Ron found that out as well.

http://i.imgur.com/dsDFg5Y.gif