View Full Version : Rand at 5% in new American Research Group Poll in New Hampshire
Brett85
01-19-2016, 10:43 AM
This could help Rand make the next debate if they go by percentages this time instead of trying to limit the number of participants. Although that might be hopeful thinking.
Trump: 27%
Kasich: 20%
Rubio: 10%
Christie: 9%
Cruz: 9%
Bush: 8%
Paul: 5%
Fiorina: 2%
Huckabee: 1%
Santorum: 1%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/nhrep.html
Influenza
01-19-2016, 10:47 AM
Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one
Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one
His campaign is spending everything on ads in NH.
Alldayallie
01-19-2016, 10:50 AM
Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one
1) ARG is one of the most inaccurate pollsters
2) They push poll. This is the same one that pushed Huntsman in NH
mwkaufman
01-19-2016, 10:50 AM
Wow Kasich at 20%. Even if he wins New Hampshire somehow he'd get clobbered by any other candidate in the South I think.
Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one
Huntsman Republicans exist in New Hampshire and almost nowhere else, so he could be getting like 5% from Romney voters and 15% from Huntsman voters.
Carson polled 2% here, between Fiorina and Huck
Crashland
01-19-2016, 10:53 AM
7th place won't help him qualify for a debate. If they pull the same kind of criteria as last time
Brett85
01-19-2016, 10:53 AM
1) ARG is one of the most inaccurate pollsters
2) They push poll. This is the same one that pushed Huntsman in NH
They are inaccurate, but there have been other pollsters that have also been showing Kasich increasing support, and he's been getting a lot of Newspaper endorsements in New Hampshire. He's basically spending all of his money and time in New Hampshire.
Brett85
01-19-2016, 10:54 AM
7th place won't help him qualify for a debate. If they pull the same kind of criteria as last time
Yeah I know, but if they use the same type of criteria that CNN used, getting 5% in New Hampshire polls will help him make the next debate.
moraha
01-19-2016, 11:01 AM
Here comes the establishment push of Bush. I'm still not sure if they're going for him or Rubio though.
limequat
01-19-2016, 11:03 AM
Here comes the establishment push of Bush. I'm still not sure if they're going for him or Rubio though.
I don't think they're sure.
Joeinmo
01-19-2016, 11:03 AM
This could help Rand make the next debate if they go by percentages this time instead of trying to limit the number of participants. Although that might be hopeful thinking.
Trump: 27%
Kasich: 20%
Rubio: 10%
Christie: 9%
Cruz: 9%
Bush: 8%
Paul: 5%
Fiorina: 2%
Huckabee: 1%
Santorum: 1%
interesting that Carson is gone
Welsh Paulite
01-19-2016, 11:56 AM
Kasich has a lot of the old Huntsman team on board - as well as a hint of McCain 2000 in the form of John Weaver. I think his surge is real. He has a decent operation and ground game in NH. I wouldn't underestimate Kasich, but all his eggs are firmly in the New Hampshire basket.
Rand at 5 isn't so bad. It's all to do with trend and momentum at the moment and at least he is ticking up slightly, unlike Carson who has dropped off a cliff.
Welsh Paulite
01-19-2016, 12:20 PM
Then again, the pollster is ARG who, it is safe to say, don't have the best record for accuracy...
Valli6
01-19-2016, 12:23 PM
Kasich has a lot of the old Huntsman team on board - as well as a hint of McCain 2000 in the form of John Weaver. I think his surge is real. He has a decent operation and ground game in NH. I wouldn't underestimate Kasich, but all his eggs are firmly in the New Hampshire basket.
So should we expect them to release a misleading video to smear Rand Paul the Friday before N.H.'s primary - like Huntsman's people did?? A video from an alleged "supporter" created just to makes Paul look bad and then the media can blame Rand and talk exclusively (and I mean ALL day long!) about his "racist supporters" nonstop during the Friday, Saturday and Sunday right before the primary takes place?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZeVqj-t1U0
EBounding
01-19-2016, 12:27 PM
1) ARG is one of the most inaccurate pollsters
2) They push poll. This is the same one that pushed Huntsman in NH
ARG gets a "C-" from 538
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
Jeffster
01-19-2016, 12:34 PM
Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one
Kasich has the best resume of anyone running. And he's always been a very effective campaigner.
Dianne
01-19-2016, 12:46 PM
Kasich at 20% blows my mind.
jmdrake
01-19-2016, 01:00 PM
Holy shit how is Kasich so popular in NH? I just get annoyed whenever he opens his mouth. I guess he splits the Romney voters with Rubio, Christie, and Bush? Still, out of those 4, I don't see how Kasich would be the popular one
I have no freaking idea. I see people saying Kasich is spending all his money in New Hampshire. But that still doesn't make sense to me.
interesting that Carson is gone
Meh. NH isn't big on the evangelical vote.
Welsh Paulite
01-19-2016, 01:00 PM
Maybe Valli6. There is certainly remnants of the Huntsman team there - with a dash of McCain and some local weight from Sununu. Dangerous in New Hampshire but it's hard to see how Kasich could possibly play in the South.
derek4ever
01-19-2016, 01:07 PM
Then again, the pollster is ARG who, it is safe to say, don't have the best record for accuracy...
Are they one of the many pollsters that said that the Democrats would win the KY Governor's race by a landslide?? :confused:
Alldayallie
01-19-2016, 01:54 PM
ARG gets a "C-" from 538
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
Great info, thanks. That's horrible considering they are given national recognition and attention. Many of those low scoring polls are ones that rarely do political polls and from those names do really localized polling.
milgram
01-19-2016, 04:55 PM
Speaking of Kasich, I happened to catch this on CSPAN last night. He really sounds like a Democrat here.
Kasich responds to question about the lack of funding for some alcohol treatment/prevention program. First he says funding "should have grown" for the program. Then he says "expanding Medicaid was a big plus [for NH] and I think that brought a lot of resources to help on this issue".
http://www.c-span.org/video/?403332-1/john-kasich-remarks-drug-alcohol-abuse&start=440
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