timosman
01-17-2016, 01:01 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/jeb-bush-donors-loyalty-217802
When Jeb Bush announced a record fundraising haul in July, the Florida Republican rewarded major donors with a two-day celebratory retreat at the family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine. They also delivered a message: $114 million was just the beginning of how much cash they would need to win.
Now, seven months later and just 17 days before the first ballots are cast, Bush’s donors are no longer high-fiving or strategizing how to keep funds flowing. Instead, the money spigot is shutting off as the donor class believes it is just a matter of time before the candidate they threw so much money behind drops out of the race.
POLITICO talked to nearly two dozen major donors, and most say they are waiting for what one veteran Republican and former Bush 43 administration appointee described as the "family hall pass" to jump to another campaign after the New Hampshire primary.
“I’m resigned to it being over, frankly. It’s really disappointing,” said one top Bush Wall Street donor. “I’d urge him to get out after New Hampshire if he doesn’t do well, but he probably won’t."
The deterioration of the Bush campaign has been a humbling experience for his fundraisers. A year ago, even before he was a candidate, Bush's team was locking down donors across the country and getting commitments for six- and seven-figure checks with little trouble. Donors were pitted against each other to see who could raise more and be in the good graces of the man who, at the time, was described by many in Bush World as the inevitable nominee.
Now the fundraising pitch is decidedly different.
"Hey, I need you to throw away money on Jeb — out of loyalty," a Bush fundraiser has told donors recently.
Rival campaigns are watching Bush's finance operation closely and have been working behind the scenes to lay the groundwork to poach his donor network. So far, a top Florida Republican fundraiser, Brian Ballard, has been one of the only notable defections to Sen. Marco Rubio's camp after Bush's campaign attacked Rubio.
"Donors I've talked to are desperate not to abandon Jeb because of their long bonds and loyalty with the family, but they are also recognizing there is no ROI [return on investment] on this campaign," said Rick Wilson, a veteran Florida political operative who is backing Rubio. "The sense of these folks is it is so sad. They whisper to each other, 'When will Jeb go?'"
Contingency planning among the donor set is in full force. Much of Bush’s Wall Street support network will shift to Rubio. Even those who still see an outside shot for the former Florida governor expect Rubio to emerge as the establishment alternative to Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
“I think Jeb has the best qualities to be the president, he’s just not doing the world’s best job of getting there,” said a top Wall Street executive who has donated and raised money for Bush. “My attitude is still wait and see what happens. I can’t believe Donald Trump is going to get the nomination. As long as there is still all this insanity there is hope for Jeb.”
But once Bush is out, this donor said he was ready to move on to Rubio. “If Jeb were to get out for any reason, most of his support would go to Marco.”
But many of Bush’s donors, especially those in finance and on Wall Street, say 2016 simply might be a bad year for a traditional, establishment contender. Rubio and their next preferred player, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, likely don’t have great shots at the nomination either, one donor suggested.
“Expectations are not super high [for Bush]. But people are giving him room to try and break out in New Hampshire,” that donor said. “But if it doesn’t happen, pretty much everyone is thinking about the three-way alternative: Trump, Cruz or, gulp, [Hillary] Clinton. There isn't a sense though that Rubio or Christie have got a much better path than Jeb because they are establishment too.”
The Bush campaign continues to make the case in conference calls to supporters that the one-time front-runner still has a pathway to the nomination. And several donors praised Bush’s finance operation as one of the best they've ever seen.
"We are grateful for the support we have and are confident in our plan to win," said Bush spokeswoman Allie Bradenburger in an email. "Jeb will continue to campaign hard in states across the nation as our momentum for his message and record of experience continues to grow."
Dave Beightol, a Washington-area Bush supporter, said that he was encouraged by reports from bundlers who had been door-knocking in early primary states.
"Surging may be too strong of a word, but he is moving up quite dramatically," Beightol said. "This town is full of regurgitators. You have to go beyond the regurgitators ... Actually, a number of bundler types went door-to-door to get a feel for this and reported on it today. They were very excited about [what they saw] in the field."
Still, the pace of Bush fundraisers has also slowed significantly as the candidate has turned his attention to early primary states. On Sunday, Bush was spotted at brunch at the Biltmore in Miami before hitting the golf course at the Coral Gables Country Club. By contrast, Rubio held court in front of roughly 300 supporters at a Palm Beach fundraiser at the home of Bridget and Bill Koch.
Bush's operation still continues to do fundraisers. Dan Runde, a member of Bush's national fundraising committee, laid out his pitch in an email invitation for a Wednesday event in Virginia with Columba Bush.
"We want to win the general election. We think we need to broaden our Republican base in order to win as we have not broken 50 percent in the last two elections," Runde wrote, noting that he isn't concerned about national polls and that the Republican nominating process will go until May.
Bush also has a fundraiser in Palm Beach Jan. 25 at the home of Kara and Steve Ross.
In part, Republican operatives said Bush has been the victim of too high expectations.
"All of the major donors to Jeb and initial donors to Jeb who thought he was going to leap to a lead and never lose it are disappointed," said Fred Malek, finance co-chair of John McCain's 2008 presidential bid and an appointee in President George H.W. Bush's administration.
And while struggling campaigns often devolve into a blame game of consultants, donors and campaign staff, so far Bush's operation has run fairly seamlessly.
"The remarkable thing about Team Jeb is how well they are sticking together through the bad times," said Ron Kaufman, a top strategist to Mitt Romney during his 2012 presidential bid. "And there is an honest to God, real Bush network that is somewhat latent in places across the country that with a modicum of good news I think will become energized."
When Jeb Bush announced a record fundraising haul in July, the Florida Republican rewarded major donors with a two-day celebratory retreat at the family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine. They also delivered a message: $114 million was just the beginning of how much cash they would need to win.
Now, seven months later and just 17 days before the first ballots are cast, Bush’s donors are no longer high-fiving or strategizing how to keep funds flowing. Instead, the money spigot is shutting off as the donor class believes it is just a matter of time before the candidate they threw so much money behind drops out of the race.
POLITICO talked to nearly two dozen major donors, and most say they are waiting for what one veteran Republican and former Bush 43 administration appointee described as the "family hall pass" to jump to another campaign after the New Hampshire primary.
“I’m resigned to it being over, frankly. It’s really disappointing,” said one top Bush Wall Street donor. “I’d urge him to get out after New Hampshire if he doesn’t do well, but he probably won’t."
The deterioration of the Bush campaign has been a humbling experience for his fundraisers. A year ago, even before he was a candidate, Bush's team was locking down donors across the country and getting commitments for six- and seven-figure checks with little trouble. Donors were pitted against each other to see who could raise more and be in the good graces of the man who, at the time, was described by many in Bush World as the inevitable nominee.
Now the fundraising pitch is decidedly different.
"Hey, I need you to throw away money on Jeb — out of loyalty," a Bush fundraiser has told donors recently.
Rival campaigns are watching Bush's finance operation closely and have been working behind the scenes to lay the groundwork to poach his donor network. So far, a top Florida Republican fundraiser, Brian Ballard, has been one of the only notable defections to Sen. Marco Rubio's camp after Bush's campaign attacked Rubio.
"Donors I've talked to are desperate not to abandon Jeb because of their long bonds and loyalty with the family, but they are also recognizing there is no ROI [return on investment] on this campaign," said Rick Wilson, a veteran Florida political operative who is backing Rubio. "The sense of these folks is it is so sad. They whisper to each other, 'When will Jeb go?'"
Contingency planning among the donor set is in full force. Much of Bush’s Wall Street support network will shift to Rubio. Even those who still see an outside shot for the former Florida governor expect Rubio to emerge as the establishment alternative to Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
“I think Jeb has the best qualities to be the president, he’s just not doing the world’s best job of getting there,” said a top Wall Street executive who has donated and raised money for Bush. “My attitude is still wait and see what happens. I can’t believe Donald Trump is going to get the nomination. As long as there is still all this insanity there is hope for Jeb.”
But once Bush is out, this donor said he was ready to move on to Rubio. “If Jeb were to get out for any reason, most of his support would go to Marco.”
But many of Bush’s donors, especially those in finance and on Wall Street, say 2016 simply might be a bad year for a traditional, establishment contender. Rubio and their next preferred player, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, likely don’t have great shots at the nomination either, one donor suggested.
“Expectations are not super high [for Bush]. But people are giving him room to try and break out in New Hampshire,” that donor said. “But if it doesn’t happen, pretty much everyone is thinking about the three-way alternative: Trump, Cruz or, gulp, [Hillary] Clinton. There isn't a sense though that Rubio or Christie have got a much better path than Jeb because they are establishment too.”
The Bush campaign continues to make the case in conference calls to supporters that the one-time front-runner still has a pathway to the nomination. And several donors praised Bush’s finance operation as one of the best they've ever seen.
"We are grateful for the support we have and are confident in our plan to win," said Bush spokeswoman Allie Bradenburger in an email. "Jeb will continue to campaign hard in states across the nation as our momentum for his message and record of experience continues to grow."
Dave Beightol, a Washington-area Bush supporter, said that he was encouraged by reports from bundlers who had been door-knocking in early primary states.
"Surging may be too strong of a word, but he is moving up quite dramatically," Beightol said. "This town is full of regurgitators. You have to go beyond the regurgitators ... Actually, a number of bundler types went door-to-door to get a feel for this and reported on it today. They were very excited about [what they saw] in the field."
Still, the pace of Bush fundraisers has also slowed significantly as the candidate has turned his attention to early primary states. On Sunday, Bush was spotted at brunch at the Biltmore in Miami before hitting the golf course at the Coral Gables Country Club. By contrast, Rubio held court in front of roughly 300 supporters at a Palm Beach fundraiser at the home of Bridget and Bill Koch.
Bush's operation still continues to do fundraisers. Dan Runde, a member of Bush's national fundraising committee, laid out his pitch in an email invitation for a Wednesday event in Virginia with Columba Bush.
"We want to win the general election. We think we need to broaden our Republican base in order to win as we have not broken 50 percent in the last two elections," Runde wrote, noting that he isn't concerned about national polls and that the Republican nominating process will go until May.
Bush also has a fundraiser in Palm Beach Jan. 25 at the home of Kara and Steve Ross.
In part, Republican operatives said Bush has been the victim of too high expectations.
"All of the major donors to Jeb and initial donors to Jeb who thought he was going to leap to a lead and never lose it are disappointed," said Fred Malek, finance co-chair of John McCain's 2008 presidential bid and an appointee in President George H.W. Bush's administration.
And while struggling campaigns often devolve into a blame game of consultants, donors and campaign staff, so far Bush's operation has run fairly seamlessly.
"The remarkable thing about Team Jeb is how well they are sticking together through the bad times," said Ron Kaufman, a top strategist to Mitt Romney during his 2012 presidential bid. "And there is an honest to God, real Bush network that is somewhat latent in places across the country that with a modicum of good news I think will become energized."