Final Debate Poll Results Coming In

[Zippyjuan]

Top six nationally or top five in NH or Iowa needed to qualify.

Investors Business Daily/ TPP

Nationally:
Trump- 34
Cruz- 18
Rubio- 9
Carson- 8
Christie- 4
Bush- 4
Paul- 3

New Hampshire and Iowa numbers not up yet.

Fox has also reported:

Nationally:

Trump- 35
Cruz- 20
Rubio- 13
Carson- 10
Bush- 4
Paul- 2
Christie- 2

New Hampshire:
Trump- 33
Rubio- 15
Cruz- 12
Bush- 9
Kasich-7
Paul- 5
Christie- 5

Iowa:
Cruz- 27
Trump- 23
Rubio- 15
Carson- 9
Bush- 7
Paul- 5

Quinnipiac- national figures not yet available but state info up:

Iowa-
Cruz- 28
Trump- 26
Rubio- 15
Carson- 7
Christie- 4
Bush-3
Paul- 3

New Hampshire- not posted yet.

NBC/ Wall Street Journal:

National not up yet

Iowa:
Cruz- 28
Trump- 24
Rubio- 13
Carson- 11
Paul- 5
Bush- 4
Christie-3

New Hampshire:
Trump- 30
Rubio- 14
Christie- 12
Cruz- 10
Kasich- 9
Paul- 5
Carson- 4

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

[spikel]

Good to see his numbers are more promising than last time, but this does not look good for him making the debate. I think it's essential he is on the main stage as it seems people are finally starting to give him some attention now that the hype for Carson, Trump and fiorina are wearing off. I do hope he makes it he is the only candidate democrat or republican speaking logic

[mit26chell]

He may get more press if they exclude him, so I'm very torn. My gut tells me he will not be allowed on the main stage - they are trying to narrow out the field but don't realize that excluding Rand will not mean an end to his campaign.

[robskicks]

He's in the top 6 nationally in a poll and top 5 in Iowa in another... why wouldn't he make it?

[Crashland]

He may get more press if they exclude him, so I'm very torn. My gut tells me he will not be allowed on the main stage - they are trying to narrow out the field but don't realize that excluding Rand will not mean an end to his campaign.

If I were FBN I would be hard pressed to justify his inclusion at this point. What kind of press though would he get? Is Rand going to follow through on his threat to boycott the undercard?

[jonhowe]

This does not bode well. :(

[jonhowe]

He's in the top 6 nationally in a poll and top 5 in Iowa in another... why wouldn't he make it?

Because those polls are averaged together with the others from the time period.

[Crashland]

He's in the top 6 nationally in a poll and top 5 in Iowa in another... why wouldn't he make it?

Because they said they are taking the average of the 5 most recent polls, and Rand is clearly just below the requirements on all fronts.

[Joeinmo]

Your guessing at the polling companies they will use

Business investors daily is probably not one of them

[JJ2]

Here's how close it is: if two more Iowa polls come out today, all we need is a Paul 3/Bush 3 and a Paul 5/Bush 3 (to tie at 20 divided by 5 = 4.0).

[jllundqu]

I think it serves the PTB to include Rand, but that's just my conspiracy-minded take on things. In the debate, Rand is controlled (less time, marginalized), however if he is excluded, he can make a big media push out of it and it could backfire on them.

I think he just might be included, if only to keep control of him and not risk a media frenzy (even if its only a small one) given his national campaign, precinct captains, etc.

[Joeinmo]

Rand and Bush are in a tie nationally (6th) and in Iowa (5th)

if they do end up in a tie they might both go or if they look at early polls in this cycle Rand should edge Bush out

[luctor-et-emergo]

I think it serves the PTB to include Rand, but that's just my conspiracy-minded take on things. In the debate, Rand is controlled (less time, marginalized), however if he is excluded, he can make a big media push out of it and it could backfire on them.

I think he just might be included, if only to keep control of him and not risk a media frenzy (even if its only a small one) given his national campaign, precinct captains, etc.

We will see but I do think it's a somewhat likely scenario. I don't know which of the two possibilities I prefer. Raising hell over not being included might be fun.

[Dianne]

FBN going to announce today?

[simon1911]

All this is making me bitter. It really is not healthy. Am I the only one feeling this way?

[01000110]

All this is making me bitter. It really is not healthy. Am I the only one feeling this way?
You are not alone.

[Joeinmo]

If they end up including yesterday's Marist Iowa poll then Rand is in, (fox has used Marist, but not sure about FBN)

[Dianne]

All this is making me bitter. It really is not healthy. Am I the only one feeling this way?

I'm mad as hell !! It really appears intentional on the part of FBN to cut Paul from the stage. I guarantee if Jeb Bush was at Paul's polling numbers, they would get him in somehow.

[libertyplz]

686629650123067392

[01000110]

I'm mad as hell !! It really appears intentional on the part of FBN to cut Paul from the stage. I guarantee if Jeb Bush was at Paul's polling numbers, they would get him in somehow.
I totally agree.

[squirl22]

They'll make sure Jeb! makes it no matter what.

[TheNewYorker]

When will FBN make their announcement?

[Dary]

Does anyone know...after Iowa, will there be debates? Will the attendees be included based on polls or the results of the primaries?

EDIT: found this

January 14, 2016
South Carolina
Location: North Charleston Coliseum and Performing Arts Center
Aired On: Fox Business Network

January 28, 2016
Iowa
Airtime: 9:00 PM EST
Location: Iowa Events Center
Aired On: Fox News Channel

February 6, 2016
Manchester, New Hampshire
Sponsors: ABC News
Location: St. Anselm’s College Institute of Politics
Aired On: ABC News

February 13, 2016
South Carolina
Aired On: CBS

February 26, 2016
Houston, Texas
Sponsors: NBC/Telemundo/National Review
Location: University of Houston

March 2016
TBD*
Sponsors: Fox News
Florida

Didn't find anything regarding criteria.

[SilentBull]

When will FBN make their announcement?

On the Dobbs show tonight, 7pm ET.

[TheNewYorker]

On the Dobbs show tonight, 7pm ET.

I said when not where lol.

So I guess in 3 hours and 10 minutes

[TheNewYorker]

Ok weird, the quote allows you put a time but your actual post doesn't show
http://s13.postimg.org/t5zl98wjr/Screenshot_2016_01_11_15_52_04.png

[ThePaleoLibertarian]

I'll be called a pessimist, but if he drops to the lower card the campaign is over. No one at the kid's table debate is going to win the nomination.

[Crashland]

686629650123067392

. Although I'm pretty sure Fiorina didn't make it either, right?

[Zippyjuan]

Your guessing at the polling companies they will use

Business investors daily is probably not one of them

They are the four used for the last debate.

[SilentBull]

Ok weird, the quote allows you put a time but your actual post doesn't show
http://s13.postimg.org/t5zl98wjr/Screenshot_2016_01_11_15_52_04.png

Lol, I must have modified my post just before you quoted it but after you had already read it. I added the time right after.

[Robrank]

He may get more press if they exclude him, so I'm very torn. My gut tells me he will not be allowed on the main stage - they are trying to narrow out the field but don't realize that excluding Rand will not mean an end to his campaign.


Qunnipiac screwed Rand

[derek4ever]

If rand doesn't make it, can rand and fans have a rally outside? Maybe rand can make a speech nearby or something? Or will he participate in the undercard?? :(

[Mr.NoSmile]

I'll be called a pessimist, but if he drops to the lower card the campaign is over. No one at the kid's table debate is going to win the nomination.

Yeah, it is doom and gloom pessimism. Fiorina began in the undercard, but got bumped up. Hell, Christie got bumped down to an undercard debate, but he also bounced back. So this whole 'Oh the campaign is over if he's in a lower tier debate' is hyperbole. Sure, Fiorina and Christie may not get the nomination, but despite being in the lower debates, their campaigns haven't ended.

[moraha]

Yeah, it is doom and gloom pessimism. Fiorina began in the undercard, but got bumped up. Hell, Christie got bumped down to an undercard debate, but he also bounced back. So this whole 'Oh the campaign is over if he's in a lower tier debate' is hyperbole. Sure, Fiorina and Christie may not get the nomination, but despite being in the lower debates, their campaigns haven't ended.

The problem is it's at the point where more people are paying attention now. It's too late to be getting bumped down to the undercard.

[SilentBull]

I'm optimistic. It really doesn't make sense to exclude him. I'm hoping they're afraid of pissing people off and would rather not to. Plus Fiorina would be out too, right?

My concern is that there are only 2 people in the other debate right now, if they were to include both Rand and Fiorina in the main debate. This alone may be reason enough for them to bump some candidates down.

[Joeinmo]

They are the four used for the last debate.

The FBN debate or another CNN, Fox ?

[Zippyjuan]

Fox Business. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/fox-business-network-debate-polls-215589

[JJ2]

With new ARG poll and rounding off, Christie/Bush/Rand all tied at 4% for 5th in IA, using the 4 January polls.

[Zippyjuan]

http://www.businessinsider.com/fox-business-gop-debate-field-2016-1


The first GOP debate field of 2016 is about to be set — and 2 big names are in danger of missing the main event

Fox Business Network is set later on Monday evening to announce the field for the first Republican debate series of the year.

And it appears there will be a major shuffling of the lineup for Thursday's main event.

Following the network's decision last month to tighten debate-qualification rules, it seems unlikely that former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and US Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) will qualify for the main-debate stage.

Seven candidates appear likely to qualify for the main event, according to an analysis of recent surveys: front-runner Donald Trump, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Florida), retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Gov. Chris Christie (R-New Jersey), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio), and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

That would constitute the smallest number of GOP candidates yet on the main stage. Paul, Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania would be relegated to the undercard event.

To qualify for the prime-time debate stage, Fox Business requires candidates to place in the top five in either Iowa or New Hampshire based on an average of the five most-recent state polls recognized by the network. Or candidates can place in the top six nationally. Candidates who do not make the main stage can qualify for the preceding "undercard" debate by registering at least 1% in at least one of the five most-recent national polls.

This leaves some ambiguity. In announcing its criteria last month, Fox Business did not specify which polls it plans to use to determine the debate field. The network did not respond to a request for comment on Monday.

It said only that polls must be "conducted by major nationally and state recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques (i.e., live interviewers, random digit-dial sampling techniques and include both landlines and cell phones)."

Among the most recent national polls of likely Republican primary voters that appear to meet Fox Business' qualifications — conducted by International Business Daily/TIPP, Fox News (two separate polls), CNN/ORC, and Quinnipiac University — Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Christie, and Bush would qualify. The same holds true in a scenario in which the network substitutes the earlier Fox News poll for an ABC/Washington Post poll.

Kasich would grab the seventh spot because of his status in the top five in New Hampshire. The five most-recent polls of New Hampshire GOP voters were conducted by Monmouth University, NBC and The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, The Boston Herald, and the radio station WBUR. Averages of those polls, plus two other scenarios, leave Paul and Fiorina out.

And in Iowa, Fiorina and Paul are also on the outside looking in. The five most-recent polls of Iowa Republican caucus-goers — conducted by Quinnipiac University, NBC and The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, the Des Moines Register, and Gravis Marketing — put Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, and Bush in the top five.

Even in the best scenario for Paul among recent polls of the Hawkeye state — if Fox Business uses an earlier Fox News polls instead of the Gravis poll — the senator still falls a point short of fifth place. The same holds true in scenarios in which the network substitutes the Gravis poll for December polls released by Loras College, Quinnipiac University, or Monmouth University.

On Monday, Paul's campaign said it hoped the senator would qualify for the main stage, based on the fact that he is in fifth in select early-state polls.

"This race is hitting its final stretch and Rand Paul is a serious contender for the nomination," Doug Stafford, the Paul campaign's chief strategist, said in a statement. "He expects to be on the stage this week because he has qualified to do so and because he has a top tier campaign."