Robrank
11-20-2015, 09:13 PM
Conducted by NBC and Survey Monkey (MoE: +2.9%) from 15 November to 17 November; Last Poll in Parentheses conducted 27 to 29 October.
1) Donald Trump: 28% (26%) +2
2) Ben Carson: 18% (26%) -8
3) Ted Cruz: 18% (10%) +8
4) Marco Rubio: 11% (9%) +2
5) Jeb Bush: 4% (5%) -1
6) Carly Fiorina: 3% (4%) -1
7) Chris Christie: 3% (2%) +1
8) Rand Paul: 2% (2%) 0
8) Mike Huckabee: 2% (2%) 0
8) John Kasich: 2% (2%)
11) Bobby Jindal: 1% (0) +1 (Dropped out)
12) Rick Santorum: 1% (0) +1
All others no registered support
http://www.scribd.com/doc/290464180/NBC-SM-Nov-Rep-Primary-Toplines-Methodology-ONLY-11-20-15
METHODOLOGY
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey Online Poll was conducted online November 15-17, 2015 among a national sample of 5,755 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
Bureau’s American Community Survey
to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead." The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an even split in most groupings (such as gender):
Group Unweighted Plus or minus
Republican RVs 2440 2.9 percentage points
1) Donald Trump: 28% (26%) +2
2) Ben Carson: 18% (26%) -8
3) Ted Cruz: 18% (10%) +8
4) Marco Rubio: 11% (9%) +2
5) Jeb Bush: 4% (5%) -1
6) Carly Fiorina: 3% (4%) -1
7) Chris Christie: 3% (2%) +1
8) Rand Paul: 2% (2%) 0
8) Mike Huckabee: 2% (2%) 0
8) John Kasich: 2% (2%)
11) Bobby Jindal: 1% (0) +1 (Dropped out)
12) Rick Santorum: 1% (0) +1
All others no registered support
http://www.scribd.com/doc/290464180/NBC-SM-Nov-Rep-Primary-Toplines-Methodology-ONLY-11-20-15
METHODOLOGY
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey Online Poll was conducted online November 15-17, 2015 among a national sample of 5,755 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected using an algorithm from among the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
Bureau’s American Community Survey
to reflect the demographic composition of the United States. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead." The following table provides the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimate that has been calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an even split in most groupings (such as gender):
Group Unweighted Plus or minus
Republican RVs 2440 2.9 percentage points