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AngryCanadian
11-02-2015, 01:53 PM
Trump 26%
Carson 16
Rubio 13
Kasich 11
Cruz 9
Bush 7 ...
(Monmouth U. Poll, 10/29 - 11/1)



Like i said they are trying to deny Rand Paul by any means. And Seriously? Trump and Carson? Carson is an Idiot.

squirl22
11-02-2015, 02:41 PM
What was Rand's standing?

Steve-in-NY
11-02-2015, 02:47 PM
One-in-four (26%) likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire continue to back Donald Trump
for the presidential nomination. Ben Carson (16%)
places second and Marco Rubio (13%) comes in third,
followed closely by John Kasich (11%). Other cont
enders include Ted Cruz (9%), Jeb Bush (7%), Carly
Fiorina (5%), Chris Christie (5%), and Rand Paul (3%).
None of the other six candidates included in the
poll registers higher than 1%.

As per:
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/5713f5c9-e6a9-4f65-a09a-2f678233a44a.pdf

r3volution 3.0
11-02-2015, 03:15 PM
I can see why Kasich would be popular in NH; same reason that Christie was earlier this cycle, or Huntsman in 2012.

He's perceived as a "moderate," largely in relation to social issues.

In conclusion, ....sigh.

kbs021
11-02-2015, 03:35 PM
The demographics polled in this monmouth poll is not even close to what we will see in the primary. It drastically undercuts younger voters in comparison to 2012. It also MASSIVELY undercuts independent voters compared to 2012. Both of these will be Rand's best demographics.

ds21089
11-02-2015, 03:38 PM
The demographics polled in this monmouth poll is not even close to what we will see in the primary. It drastically undercuts younger voters in comparison to 2012. It also MASSIVELY undercuts independent voters compared to 2012. Both of these will be Rand's best demographics.

Precisely why they've been undercut. Oh wait nvm that makes me a conspiracy theorist :rolleyes:

jonhowe
11-02-2015, 06:07 PM
Precisely why they've been undercut. Oh wait nvm that makes me a conspiracy theorist :rolleyes:

Where was that unpolled surge in 08 and 12? People wrongly predicted it then with the same logic and sarcasm.

We are not going to win with low poll numbers. In part, people don't want to vote for a loser.

dillo
11-02-2015, 06:38 PM
Isnt new hampshire somewhat libertarian?

PCKY
11-02-2015, 06:39 PM
Where was that unpolled surge in 08 and 12? People wrongly predicted it then with the same logic and sarcasm.

We are not going to win with low poll numbers. In part, people don't want to vote for a loser.
Whether state or national, people really just don't care enough yet. Voting is like next year....stay the course.

Anti Federalist
11-02-2015, 06:43 PM
Isnt new hampshire somewhat libertarian?

The GOP establishment in NH is most certainly not.

Anti Federalist
11-02-2015, 06:44 PM
The demographics polled in this monmouth poll is not even close to what we will see in the primary. It drastically undercuts younger voters in comparison to 2012. It also MASSIVELY undercuts independent voters compared to 2012. Both of these will be Rand's best demographics.

Younger voters do not turn out.

The polls were spot on in 2008.

The polls were spot on in 2012.

The polls will be spot on in 2016.

69360
11-02-2015, 06:48 PM
Where was that unpolled surge in 08 and 12? People wrongly predicted it then with the same logic and sarcasm.

We are not going to win with low poll numbers. In part, people don't want to vote for a loser.

Not a surge, but Ron did come in 2nd in NH in 12 with 22%. He outperformed the polling by quite a bit.

Anti Federalist
11-02-2015, 07:02 PM
Not a surge, but Ron did come in 2nd in NH in 12 with 22%. He outperformed the polling by quite a bit.

About 5.4 percent, then again that is around the margin of error for most polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

Feelgood
11-02-2015, 07:33 PM
Younger voters do not turn out.

The polls were spot on in 2008.

The polls were spot on in 2012.

The polls will be spot on in 2016.

Ewww the -rep is going to come hard at you now. You're not allowed to speak truth here, some seem to get butt-hurt over it.

MarcusI
11-02-2015, 07:48 PM
The polls arent spot on, and they werent in 2008/2012. But they arent so far off as some hope.

Anti Federalist
11-02-2015, 08:13 PM
Ewww the -rep is going to come hard at you now. You're not allowed to speak truth here, some seem to get butt-hurt over it.

Eh, so be it.

I'm not going to mentally masturbate myself again with notions of "the polling is rigged", "they only polled old people with landlines", "crossover voters will carry the day" and other such nonsense.

Ron came close to winning NH (I contend that he would have, had the "official" campaign done just a few simple things) and had Rand built on that strength, he could be in front.

But he tried to play the middle and please everybody and wound up with everybody pissed at him.

69360
11-03-2015, 06:02 AM
Eh, so be it.

I'm not going to mentally masturbate myself again with notions of "the polling is rigged", "they only polled old people with landlines", "crossover voters will carry the day" and other such nonsense.

Ron came close to winning NH (I contend that he would have, had the "official" campaign done just a few simple things) and had Rand built on that strength, he could be in front.

But he tried to play the middle and please everybody and wound up with everybody pissed at him.

TBH, I kind of thought that strategy was going to work. It didn't. Who could have predicted this huge field and the whole Trump thing?

luctor-et-emergo
11-03-2015, 06:31 AM
Early polling is always (more likely to be) wrong. The closer polling gets to actual elections the more accurate it becomes.

There are very few examples where this is not true. So you don't have to do that to your brain AF. As of yet though a lot can still happen.

Anti Federalist
11-03-2015, 07:05 AM
TBH, I kind of thought that strategy was going to work. It didn't. Who could have predicted this huge field and the whole Trump thing?

I'm pretty sure me and a few other folks around here were rather vocal about how it would not work.

We were shouted down.

Meh, it is what it is now.

But I'll agree, the Trump nonsense came out of left field, suddenly.

Anti Federalist
11-03-2015, 07:08 AM
Early polling is always (more likely to be) wrong. The closer polling gets to actual elections the more accurate it becomes.

There are very few examples where this is not true. So you don't have to do that to your brain AF. As of yet though a lot can still happen.

Well, we'll see.

Ron was polling steady double digits from August 2011 onward in NH.

2 and 3 percent ain't gonna cut it.

CaptUSA
11-03-2015, 07:56 AM
Well, we'll see.

Ron was polling steady double digits from August 2011 onward in NH.

2 and 3 percent ain't gonna cut it.

I'm coming to accept that liberty ain't never going to happen. Thomas Jefferson once said, "The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers."

Glad he didn't get to see the power of TV.