McLane2007
12-06-2007, 02:01 PM
Matt Towery of Insider Advantage released an article today in which he argues that the surprise of the Iowa caucuses may be Ron Paul, in part because of the timing of the caucuses, and in part because of the fervor of Paul's supporters.
by Walt Thiessen
(Libertarian)
Kudos to our own Jim ODonnell for bringing this story to my attention. He is swamped with work at the moment, so I'm taking up the task of writing this commentary on it in his stead.
Insider Advantage is a self-described non-partisan polling and political analysis company. They published an article today by Matt Towerey in which Mr. Towerey predicts that Ron Paul will be the surprise candidate of the Iowa caucuses, nosing out Rudy Giuliani for third place.
Towery and Iowa News Talk president Jamie Johnson, who was a guest on Towery's webcast, both believe that as a result of these factors, Ron Paul could very well be the surprise of the caucuses. Towery summed it by by saying, "Ron Paul could do much better than people expect."
Towerey and Johnson give three main reasons why they think this might happen.
First, the Iowa caucuses in 2008 fall just two days after New Year's Day. This is due to the caucuses being moved up from the middle of the month as part of the recent jostling for position in the primary calendar by early primary states. In Towerey's and Johnson's views, this combined with the fact that the Orange Bowl will be broadcast the same night might keep people away from the caucuses. The Des Moines Register disagrees with this assessment in an article from four days ago, saying that less than 10% of likely caucus participants will prefer to stay home to watch the Orange Bowl. Iowa in early-January is bitter cold and dark at night, and Towery and Johnson believe that average Iowans aren't going to be as willing as in previous years to brave the cold and put up with 2-3 hours of boring political speeches in order to cast their votes.
Second, Johnson pointed out that, "This is not a primary. It's a caucus. And so the Ron Paul supporters, who are very committed, one might even say rabid, they are going to go through snow, and sleet, and driving rain to give their candidate the best outcome possible. So it's even conceivable, Matt, that Ron Paul might make third place and might bump Rudy Giuliani down to fourth." Towerey called Johnson a very smart insider and said he agreed with this assessment.
Third, Towery in his article cited the fact that, despite it being virtually unreported, the media, bloggers, etc. following Ron Paul around the spin room after last week's CNN/You Tube debate was substantial. He also noted that the largest demonstration outside of the debate facility was held by Ron Paul supporters, and he further pointed out that, "At a recent Rudy Giuliani rally, the Paul supporters virtually outnumbered the Giuliani crowd." Unfortunately, he didn't mention where that rally took place.
Towery is a columnist for Creative Syndicate, and his columns appear in newspapers across the country. He was also a former chairman of Newt Gingrich's campaigns. Johnson is the president and general manager of Iowa Talk Network, a leading conservative broadcasting station in Iowa.
Their theory dovetails well with what the Paul campaign's strategy appears to be in Iowa, as I documented yesterday. We'll be watching closely to see how well the results match the expectations.
http://www.nolanchart.com/article380.html
by Walt Thiessen
(Libertarian)
Kudos to our own Jim ODonnell for bringing this story to my attention. He is swamped with work at the moment, so I'm taking up the task of writing this commentary on it in his stead.
Insider Advantage is a self-described non-partisan polling and political analysis company. They published an article today by Matt Towerey in which Mr. Towerey predicts that Ron Paul will be the surprise candidate of the Iowa caucuses, nosing out Rudy Giuliani for third place.
Towery and Iowa News Talk president Jamie Johnson, who was a guest on Towery's webcast, both believe that as a result of these factors, Ron Paul could very well be the surprise of the caucuses. Towery summed it by by saying, "Ron Paul could do much better than people expect."
Towerey and Johnson give three main reasons why they think this might happen.
First, the Iowa caucuses in 2008 fall just two days after New Year's Day. This is due to the caucuses being moved up from the middle of the month as part of the recent jostling for position in the primary calendar by early primary states. In Towerey's and Johnson's views, this combined with the fact that the Orange Bowl will be broadcast the same night might keep people away from the caucuses. The Des Moines Register disagrees with this assessment in an article from four days ago, saying that less than 10% of likely caucus participants will prefer to stay home to watch the Orange Bowl. Iowa in early-January is bitter cold and dark at night, and Towery and Johnson believe that average Iowans aren't going to be as willing as in previous years to brave the cold and put up with 2-3 hours of boring political speeches in order to cast their votes.
Second, Johnson pointed out that, "This is not a primary. It's a caucus. And so the Ron Paul supporters, who are very committed, one might even say rabid, they are going to go through snow, and sleet, and driving rain to give their candidate the best outcome possible. So it's even conceivable, Matt, that Ron Paul might make third place and might bump Rudy Giuliani down to fourth." Towerey called Johnson a very smart insider and said he agreed with this assessment.
Third, Towery in his article cited the fact that, despite it being virtually unreported, the media, bloggers, etc. following Ron Paul around the spin room after last week's CNN/You Tube debate was substantial. He also noted that the largest demonstration outside of the debate facility was held by Ron Paul supporters, and he further pointed out that, "At a recent Rudy Giuliani rally, the Paul supporters virtually outnumbered the Giuliani crowd." Unfortunately, he didn't mention where that rally took place.
Towery is a columnist for Creative Syndicate, and his columns appear in newspapers across the country. He was also a former chairman of Newt Gingrich's campaigns. Johnson is the president and general manager of Iowa Talk Network, a leading conservative broadcasting station in Iowa.
Their theory dovetails well with what the Paul campaign's strategy appears to be in Iowa, as I documented yesterday. We'll be watching closely to see how well the results match the expectations.
http://www.nolanchart.com/article380.html