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View Full Version : Rand Paul: "over 3,000 students that have agreed to caucus with us in Iowa."




LatinsforPaul
10-20-2015, 05:36 PM
Rand Paul: Poll showing me at 5 percent shows I’m ‘heading in the right direction’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/20/rand-paul-poll-showing-me-at-5-percent-shows-im-heading-in-the-right-direction/)


"It shows we’re heading in the right direction," Paul told The Washington Post. "Ever since the last debate, it shows we've been building up support. I think we’re actually under-represented even in that recent CNN poll, because the youth vote is under-reported. There aren’t as many young people who answer these polling calls, but we have over 3,000 students that have agreed to caucus with us in Iowa."

KingNothing
10-20-2015, 05:42 PM
Rand Paul: Poll showing me at 5 percent shows I’m ‘heading in the right direction’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/20/rand-paul-poll-showing-me-at-5-percent-shows-im-heading-in-the-right-direction/)

If those really are committed votes, that is massive.

Ron got 50-percent of the under-30 vote in 2012, which ended up being slightly less than 10,000 voters. If Rand pulls close to that from college alone, it is entirely likely that he can win, assuming the state is split three ways between Trump, a non-Trump, and Rand.

Liberty74
10-20-2015, 06:32 PM
If those really are committed votes, that is massive.

Ron got 50-percent of the under-30 vote in 2012, which ended up being slightly less than 10,000 voters. If Rand pulls close to that from college alone, it is entirely likely that he can win, assuming the state is split three ways between Trump, a non-Trump, and Rand.

Ron got 8930 votes from 17-30 year olds only. I will say this again, MAYBE half were actual college students (19-23 year olds) or 4465 student votes. So Rand getting 3000 committed student votes already is actually pretty good. But let's say Rand gets the 10K students to caucus and if the same about of people votes as in 2012, that will only get Rand 8% of the actual vote. My question is and know one has yet to answer is...how does Rand get into the 25-35% range which is what he or anyone will need to take Iowa.

The Blaze had an article yesterday I believe in which the campaign said they have made 100,000 calls in Iowa. Hmmmm Yet only polling around 5% there?

LatinsforPaul
10-20-2015, 06:51 PM
The Blaze had an article yesterday I believe in which the campaign said they have made 100,000 calls in Iowa. Hmmmm Yet only polling around 5% there?

Iowa has a population of over 3 million people with over 600,000 registered Republicans, over 600,000 independents, and over 600,000 registered Democrats. All being potential caucus voters for Rand. :D

eleganz
10-20-2015, 06:55 PM
Ron got 8930 votes from 17-30 year olds only. I will say this again, MAYBE half were actual college students (19-23 year olds) or 4465 student votes. So Rand getting 3000 committed student votes already is actually pretty good. But let's say Rand gets the 10K students to caucus and if the same about of people votes as in 2012, that will only get Rand 8% of the actual vote. My question is and know one has yet to answer is...how does Rand get into the 25-35% range which is what he or anyone will need to take Iowa.

The Blaze had an article yesterday I believe in which the campaign said they have made 100,000 calls in Iowa. Hmmmm Yet only polling around 5% there?

Calls are surveys to identity and differentiate supporters from non-supporters and then to filter and target them for activism. Just because Rand has made over 100,000 calls doesn't mean they all automatically turn into supporters. It just means 100,000 calls were made. A good chunk of those calls were probably "not home" or "left voicemails".

farrar
10-20-2015, 07:16 PM
Rand Paul: Poll showing me at 5 percent shows I’m ‘heading in the right direction’ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/20/rand-paul-poll-showing-me-at-5-percent-shows-im-heading-in-the-right-direction/)

The other cool thing, is it took only about a month for the first 1000, and only about 20 days to hit 3000. Don't be surprised if we hit 10k quick. They are building momentum.

kbs021
10-20-2015, 07:26 PM
Now that Bernie came out for keeping troops in Afghanistan, I feel we have a legit chance to get some serious anti-war votes from the students. Having 3k commits is huge for it being October! I think there is a solid chance to Hit 10k. Once again, if we hit 10k, I am predicting a win in Iowa. I got chills when I read that Rand had 3k commits.

KingNothing
10-20-2015, 07:40 PM
Ron got 8930 votes from 17-30 year olds only. I will say this again, MAYBE half were actual college students (19-23 year olds) or 4465 student votes. So Rand getting 3000 committed student votes already is actually pretty good. But let's say Rand gets the 10K students to caucus and if the same about of people votes as in 2012, that will only get Rand 8% of the actual vote. My question is and know one has yet to answer is...how does Rand get into the 25-35% range which is what he or anyone will need to take Iowa.

The Blaze had an article yesterday I believe in which the campaign said they have made 100,000 calls in Iowa. Hmmmm Yet only polling around 5% there?

If Rand gets 10,000 college students to vote for him, we'd probably be looking at a randslide victory on caucus night. He'd be getting pretty close to half of the votes he'd need to win from about 5-percent of voters. That would be completely amazing.

Some of those kids would absolutely be dragging their parents, grandparents, and friends along with them, too. Boy, I hope Rand makes that happen.

fcreature
10-20-2015, 07:46 PM
Some of those kids would absolutely be dragging their parents, grandparents, and friends along with them, too. Boy, I hope Rand makes that happen.

Students need to do everything in their power to get their families out to vote for Rand during the election. Seriously. They need to use every tool at their disposal. Guilt, persuasion, pleading, whatever it takes. Hell, use it as your Birthday gift. When time comes around for your birthday they'll have forgotten all about it. Explain to them how strongly you feel about Rand as president and how much it would mean to you if they would go caucus with you and vote for Rand.

Granted, many of these students won't have family in the area as they're only attending college there.

adam220891
10-20-2015, 07:57 PM
Are any of these students among us at RPF?

Liberty74
10-20-2015, 08:05 PM
Calls are surveys to identity and differentiate supporters from non-supporters and then to filter and target them for activism. Just because Rand has made over 100,000 calls doesn't mean they all automatically turn into supporters. It just means 100,000 calls were made. A good chunk of those calls were probably "not home" or "left voicemails".

Gotcha, thanks

Brett85
10-20-2015, 08:30 PM
My question is and know one has yet to answer is...how does Rand get into the 25-35% range which is what he or anyone will need to take Iowa.

I think it will only take 20-25% of the vote to win Iowa with as many candidates that are in the race.

JJ2
10-20-2015, 08:36 PM
If 10k students commit to caucusing for Rand, doesn't that probably mean that only about 2-6k will actually show up and vote for him though?

kbs021
10-20-2015, 08:41 PM
If 10k students commit to caucusing for Rand, doesn't that probably mean that only about 2-6k will actually show up and vote for him though?

No, due to the nature of this type of organization, you can expect a very high turnout. They are registering them to vote, getting contact information to keep in touch, doing weekly activities such as canvassing, debate parties, etc. They are even going to bus them in...

fr33
10-20-2015, 09:06 PM
I'll believe it when I see it happen. Ron would fill up stadiums with the youngsters and then receive fewer votes than the total of those who attended his events.

kbs021
10-20-2015, 09:12 PM
I'll believe it when I see it happen. Ron would fill up stadiums with the youngsters and then receive fewer votes than the total of those who attended his events.

Get ready then.. Ron never had this type of organization. They continuously canvass different dorms and even have dorm leaders in Iowa. In 2008 and 2012 college never was in session during caucuses. Campus organization is going to propel Rand very far.

BrooklynZoo
10-20-2015, 09:15 PM
Many of you may be unfamiliar with a caucus. Something that we need to remember is that a caucus isn't really about individual voting like a primary. It's actually about convincing the small group of people you're placed in to put their support behind your candidate. Whomever wins the majority of each small group's vote wins the whole group. So it really is about winning hearts and minds.

If every Rand supporter and each college student works hard at their skills of persuasion and comes armed with facts, you'd be surprised how many people can be swayed at the time of the vote. I've seen and done it for Ron and it can be done this time for Rand.

dusman
10-20-2015, 09:20 PM
I'll believe it when I see it happen. Ron would fill up stadiums with the youngsters and then receive fewer votes than the total of those who attended his events.

There is a big difference this year during the Iowa Caucus. School will be in session and not on winter break like they were in 2012. If all the original people who voted for Ron in 2012 voted for Rand, most of those 3,000 students would be new voters. Obviously, we had some local students that voted for Ron... but I think the fact the student base will be in state this time around is a very important point and is going to really help Rand get close.

If we win in Iowa, I'm really excited about our prospects in New Hampshire.

dannno
10-20-2015, 09:20 PM
Are any of these students among us at RPF?

At least one that I recall, unless you are them :D

whoisjohngalt
10-20-2015, 09:25 PM
Granted, many of these students won't have family in the area as they're only attending college there.

47% of the University of Iowa students are in-state, at Iowa state it's 55%, and I'm assuming without looking it up that it's higher at all the other many universities since they are smaller and have less prestige outside of Iowa. So I'd say it's a safe bet that half the students have family in Iowa that can caucus. I know they might be on the other side of the state, but still..

rich34
10-20-2015, 09:26 PM
And don't forget to add the speculation of Ron himself actually hitting the campaign trail in January. I know some feel this may have a negative affect, but I disagree. Those voters are obviously not going to vote for Rand anyway so you might as well do everything possible to set fire to the base you have to get them to turnout in hordes. Rand imo will also get a bump from the polls anyway because sooner or later the pollsters are going to get it somewhat right or risk having major egg on their face if Rand and hopefully Ron can generate the excitement among the base to get out and vote.

whoisjohngalt
10-20-2015, 09:27 PM
There is a big difference this year during the Iowa Caucus. School will be in session and not on winter break like they were in 2012. If all the original people who voted for Ron in 2012 voted for Rand, most of those 3,000 students would be new voters. Obviously, we had some local students that voted for Ron... but I think the fact the student base will be in state this time around is a very important point and is going to really help Rand get close.

If we win in Iowa, I'm really excited about our prospects in New Hampshire.

Based on my above numbers, I think it's safe to assume that somewhere just under 50% of the student voters would have been out of state students previously excluded.

Jonderdonk
10-20-2015, 09:48 PM
Are any of these students among us at RPF?

Yar.

adam220891
10-20-2015, 09:55 PM
At least one that I recall, unless you are them :D

I am a student, but online and in NJ, so not me!

Just interested in hearing about things from someone with first-hand perspective.

Crashland
10-20-2015, 10:07 PM
I am a student, but online and in NJ, so not me!

Just interested in hearing about things from someone with first-hand perspective.

Me too. Is there some way we can track down the leaders of the SFR chapters and see if they can get some of their members involved here on the forum? I mean, I know college is a bubble, but... I think it would be in everyone's best interest to get SFR and the outside grassroots involved with each other and see what we can do for each other.

whoisjohngalt
10-20-2015, 10:09 PM
I think it will only take 20-25% of the vote to win Iowa with as many candidates that are in the race.

Should be less? 23.6% won it last time with only six candidates receiving a statistically significant portion of the vote. There are 9 to 10 right now that will draw some votes if nothing else changes.

eleganz
10-20-2015, 10:46 PM
Also depends on who gets on the ballot. If a candidate has ballot access in Iowa and they end up suspending their campaign, people can still vote for them. If the candidate dropping out isn't huge news, they'll siphon off some votes causing even more division.

JJ2
10-21-2015, 01:08 AM
No, due to the nature of this type of organization, you can expect a very high turnout. They are registering them to vote, getting contact information to keep in touch, doing weekly activities such as canvassing, debate parties, etc. They are even going to bus them in...

Well then hopefully it will be a very high turnout. But it still won't be 100%, so if the goal is to get 10k to actually caucus for Rand, then it seems they should be trying to get at least somewhere around 12k to commit to it.