New CBS Poll (10/11/2015): Rand in 7th, Will Likely Make Debate

[SilentBull]

Trump 27
Carson 21
Cruz 9
Rubio 8
Fiorina 6
Bush 6
Paul 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2
Santorum 1
Jindal 0
Graham 0
Pataki 0

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-still-leads-carson-in-second/


Excellent news for Rand! His average is now a solid 3%.

[squirl22]

yes, good news.

[SilentBull]

This means even if the next two polls have him at 1% and 2%, he will still be in the debate. It's very unlikely he will be left out now.

[SilentBull]

Also, check out Fiorina. The media couldn't hold her up.

[limequat]

Any body care to do the math on the standings per the debate criteria? Would be nice if Rand's the on the absolute end of the stage.

[hells_unicorn]

Good news, I'm hoping he holds this position so he doesn't have any weaker showings than this in the next couple polls. If he can stay ahead of Kasich and Christie, and maybe even creep up on Bush and Fiorina a bit more, we'll be in good shape for podium positioning in the next debate.

I'm amazed not only at how poorly Fiorina is polling despite all the media support, but also how perpetually bad Bush's numbers have remained. That may change once Trump and Carson start tanking, but Bush is in far worse of a position now than Romney was in 2012, in fact he's getting close to McCain territory circa 2008. We need to keep our eyes out for a sudden surge of support for him, but his public appearances and debate performances have been terrible, and it is reflecting in his current numbers.

[SilentBull]

Lindsey still fails to qualify for the kiddie debate. How sweet would that be if he's left out of that one? Is that guy even campaigning or does he just want his name on the ballot?

[kbs021]

Was about to post this actually. Pretty big deal!

[georgiaboy]

Moving up!
McDonald's numbers headed down.
People are starting to actually pay attention.

[Xenliad]

This was interesting:

http://i.imgur.com/tLi3U8k.png

[Jeremy]

Phew.

[SilentBull]

Any body care to do the math on the standings per the debate criteria? Would be nice if Rand's the on the absolute end of the stage.

http://www.silentbull.com/rand-cbs-gop-poll-will-make-debate/

Christie 3.6
Kasich 3.6
Huckabee 3.2
Paul 3.0

Rand is last for the moment. He could easily surpass Huckabee with another good showing before the 21st.

[phill4paul]

This was interesting:

http://i.imgur.com/tLi3U8k.png

As always..."It's the economy, stupid." He needs to hammer down on his tax plan and what it would do for the average Joe.

[Jeremy]

As always..."It's the economy, stupid." He needs to hammer down on his tax plan and what it would do for the average Joe.

Maybe cutting spending. I feel like no one has touched on that recently.

[Xenliad]

As always..."It's the economy, stupid." He needs to hammer down on his tax plan and what it would do for the average Joe.

I want him to advocate it as passionately as he did medical marijuana at the previous debate.

[Crashland]

I don't like Cruz almost breaking double digits.

[liberty_nc]

This is the do or die debate, it is on the economy, so Rand really needs to push his tax plan (especially the $50k tax exemption and the millions of jobs it will create)

[Millennial Conservatarian]

If the polls say 4% he is realistically sitting at about 8-9% when the landline factor is removed

[Liberty74]

What was the break down of party affiliation and how many voters?

Carly got a month of the media pushing her and only at 6%? Ha

[Millennial Conservatarian]

Carly got a month of the media pushing her and only at 6%? Ha
She comes off as Cruella Deville. Nobody likes this bitch. There is nothing the media could possibly do to make her likable.

[goldwater's ghost]

Lindsey still fails to qualify for the kiddie debate. How sweet would that be if he's left out of that one? Is that guy even campaigning or does he just want his name on the ballot? my favorite story of the race so far. this d-bag only entered the race so that he could debate rand on foreign policy and he has a good chance of never making it to the stage lol

[goldwater's ghost]

i think rand bottomed a few weeks ago when he was polling at 2%. i think he's bounced a little and all the polls should have between 4-6% heading into the debate

[limequat]

I don't like Cruz almost breaking double digits.

Well get ready for more disappointment. Cruz is the establishments fall back position. Walker's out. Bush is a dud. Rubio isn't catching on. The last best option is to pump Cruz through the primaries and hand the general to the Dems. Cruz is currently enemy #1.

[limequat]

i think rand bottomed a few weeks ago when he was polling at 2%. i think he's bounced a little and all the polls should have between 4-6% heading into the debate

Agreed.

[CaptUSA]

Excellent news for Rand! His average is now a solid 3%.

http://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/58010116.jpg

[Jeremy]

Well get ready for more disappointment. Cruz is the establishments fall back position. Walker's out. Bush is a dud. Rubio isn't catching on. The last best option is to pump Cruz through the primaries and hand the general to the Dems. Cruz is currently enemy #1.

There's nothing Cruz wants more right now than for Rand to drop out. He must be pretty upset about losing the RLC straw poll yesterday, despite spending money to infiltrate it.

[specsaregood]

There's nothing Cruz wants more right now than for Rand to drop out. He must be pretty upset about losing the RLC straw poll yesterday, despite spending money to infiltrate it.

I think its pretty obvious that its Cruz's campaign that has been circulating B.S. rumors about Paul's campaign for months now. Snake in the grass he is.

[alucard13mm]

Didnt rands tax plan of 14.5%, give an exemption to those that make under a certain amount? I forgot what it was, 30k? 50k? If this is true of there being an exemption or a break for the poor, it would look good for him (althought, rationally, everyone should pay equal. Emoionally [which is huge in an election], should think of the poor)

[limequat]

I think its pretty obvious that its Cruz's campaign that has been circulating B.S. rumors about Paul's campaign for months now. Snake in the grass he is.

Yep, pretty sure his campaign is the source of all the "anonymous GOP insiders" feeding BS to politico.

[Brett85]

I definitely breathed a big sigh of relief after looking at this poll.

[BenIsForRon]

I feel like Rand will have to confront Cruz at some point, but I'm not stoked about it because Cruz has been an important ally at times in the Senate.

[carlton]

I feel like Rand will have to confront Cruz at some point, but I'm not stoked about it because Cruz has been an important ally at times in the Senate.

If Cruz was an ice-cream flavor, he'd be praline and dick.

[phill4paul]

If Cruz was an ice-cream flavor, he'd be praline and dick.

:D

[Kotin]

If Cruz was an ice-cream flavor, he'd be praline and dick.

haha win..

[limequat]

I feel like Rand will have to confront Cruz at some point, but I'm not stoked about it because Cruz has been an important ally at times in the Senate.

There have some fairly barbed exchanges already. I don't think Rand is counting on Cruz for anything but trouble.

[carlton]

There have some fairly barbed exchanges already. I don't think Rand is counting on Cruz for anything but trouble.

http://cdn.makeagif.com/media/7-07-2015/FppVGZ.gif

[Rudeman]

Bush is just waiting for the other establishment/moderate candidates to drop out. Take out Christie, Kasich, Fiorina and Rubio + Bush's total and that's 25%. So we need to be aware of that, just because he's struggling doesn't mean he can't "surge" back up.

[PCKY]

Trump 27
Carson 21
Cruz 9
Rubio 8
Fiorina 6
Bush 6
Paul 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Huckabee 2
Santorum 1
Jindal 0
Graham 0
Pataki 0

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-still-leads-carson-in-second/


Excellent news for Rand! His average is now a solid 3%.
Yay! How many more polls before the cut off?

[jkob]

Not sure how Rand would go about attacking Cruz unless over foreign policy which I'd be all for but Rand seems to go out of h, I'd probably avoid it directly since Cruz is not an ill-prepared guy and is very popular with conservatives in the GOP that we want to win over that are already miffed at Rand. Like Rand won't burn any bridges with McConnell but he doesn't have any problem criticizing the other conservatives in this race? You do realize how this appears? Rand needs to pound Jeb, Rubio, the media, the establishment, he needs to stand out and not be afraid of what the polls say. The polls say his candidacy is dead so there is nothing to lose by advocating the unpopular nonmainstream positions, controversy attracts attention and the voters need educating. Stop trying to be "electable", that is a box that Rand will never escape from. Just showing up and attacking someone above you in the polls doesn't look good very often, we need substance.

Honestly I think an economics debate is going to be tough, people aren't going to disagree with each other rather just try to one up one another. I'm sure they'll be plenty of other questions I guess, Rand needs to take up the anti-war and anti-drug war(which can be framed as state's rights issue mantle full time as part of his campaign. The media making fun of our kooky ideas is better than not distinguishing ourselves, for all Rand's pandering to hawks most who that is important to still think Rand is some limp wristed isolationist like his father. Project confidence, tell them why you are right and they are wrong. Speaking like a vanilla politician trying to juggle support is a ticket to irrelevance. Extremism is no vice in the defense of liberty!

[squirl22]

If Cruz was an ice-cream flavor, he'd be praline and dick.

HA HA...GOOD LAUGH!

[Brett85]

Yay! How many more polls before the cut off?

Nobody knows for sure. We just know that the cut off is the 21st.

[Batman]

:D

The pralines aren't worth it.

[69360]

If the polls say 4% he is realistically sitting at about 8-9% when the landline factor is removed

The polls lie!

Oh how little has been learned from the last 2 goes at this.

:rolleyes:

[CPUd]

8-9% is a bit high for a national poll right now. Maybe 6%.

[Brett85]

The polls lie!

Oh how little has been learned from the last 2 goes at this.

:rolleyes:

Yeah, not to mention that most polling organizations include cell phones in their polling. There are some that don't, like Rasmussen and PPP, and those polls do generally have Rand about 1-3% lower than the other polls. But polls like CBS, CNN, ABC, etc. all include cell phones in their polling, and I think the percentage they have Rand at is probably pretty accurate.

[carlton]

Yeah, not to mention that most polling organizations include cell phones in their polling. There are some that don't, like Rasmussen and PPP, and those polls do generally have Rand about 1-3% lower than the other polls. But polls like CBS, CNN, ABC, etc. all include cell phones in their polling, and I think the percentage they have Rand at is probably pretty accurate.

I've heard that the percentage of cells used opposed to landlines is grossly disproportionate

[Brett85]

I've heard that the percentage of cells used opposed to landlines is grossly disproportionate

Well, Huffington Post uses scientific internet polls that should be very fair to Rand as they generally poll a larger percentage of younger voters, but Rand is about the same in those polls, around 4%.

[eleganz]

Gallup Polling has officially dropped out of any primary and presidential polling for 2016 and potentially the future, and they are now sticking to polling the issues. They found that polling has been too inaccurate even though they have better than average polling methodologies.

Polling really doesn't matter this early anyways.

What matters most is who is the typical establishment preferred candidates, because they will have the best chance of winning and those with the best chance of becoming the insurgent anti-establishment candidates.

I'll be happy when Rand breaks 6 into the 7's.

[Bastiat's The Law]

The polls lie!

Oh how little has been learned from the last 2 goes at this.

:rolleyes:

Yeah we learned that the polls are mostly accurate, some are very accurate. Nate Silver makes a living from his accurate reading of the polls and foretelling outcomes.

[mello]

The next time a reporter asks him if he should drop out since his poll numbers are low, he should respond with something like this:

"Nope, I'm in for the long haul. Let me ask you a question though. I'm polling hire than Christie, Kasich, & Huckabee but I never see reporters ask them that same question, why is that?"

[phill4paul]

Didnt rands tax plan of 14.5%, give an exemption to those that make under a certain amount? I forgot what it was, 30k? 50k? If this is true of there being an exemption or a break for the poor, it would look good for him (althought, rationally, everyone should pay equal. Emoionally [which is huge in an election], should think of the poor)

The tax would not kick in until a $15k threshold was passed per adult. Another $5k per child. A married couple with 4 children would not have to pay the 14.5% until they reached the $50k threshold and then only on what is made beyond that. Earned income Credit still applies to lower income families.

https://www.randpaul.com/issue/taxes

[r3volution 3.0]

As always..."It's the economy, stupid." He needs to hammer down on his tax plan and what it would do for the average Joe.

Yup

Rand needs to point out that he's going to cut both taxes and spending vastly more than the rest (most of whom have no plan at all).

Fiscal conservatism or bust, that's his route to the nomination.

He needs to go hog wild, I want to hear the name Henry Hazlitt before the night's over.

I want him to call Franklin Roosevelt a bolshevik (well, not really but you get the idea).

[erowe1]

If the polls say 4% he is realistically sitting at about 8-9% when the landline factor is removed

Hardly.

[r3volution 3.0]

If Cruz was an ice-cream flavor, he'd be praline and dick.

You win the internet

/thread

[Stannis]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

[Jonderdonk]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

Where's the party?

[r3volution 3.0]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

How long have you been involved in this?

*not a snarky question

[Brett85]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

We're just celebrating that Rand will likely be in the next GOP debate. One step at a time.

[hells_unicorn]

You know our campaign is not doing well when we are celebrating the fact that we have 3% in the polls.

Debbie Downers need not apply, and in case you haven't noticed, this isn't a celebration, this is a sigh of relief that we're not being relegated to the bottom tier 3 months before the Iowa caucus. You should stick to whining about people not supporting gay marriage, it's one of the few things you seem good at.

[Mad Raven]

The polls are so silly. It's name recognition mixed in with a couple positive and negative memories of what a couple people said. It's barely better than the "man on the street" interviews with the clueless idiots who try to make what they think is the most reasonable sounding answer to avoid revealing how clueless they are.

As the elections get closer, people start getting slightly more informed.

[Liberty74]

I've heard that the percentage of cells used opposed to landlines is grossly disproportionate

It does not matter. The polls for the most part were very accurate in 2012.

The reason it does not matter is the polling companies do a good job at finding the "likely voters" via their questioning. And giving a good realistic demographic of age group tournout.

[LawnWake]

Rand really, really has to knock it out of the park on this one if he wants to be a legitemate contender.

[LatinsforPaul]

Rand really, really has to knock it out of the park on this one if he wants to be a legitemate contender.

If you don't think Rand is a legitimate contender, than you need to get yourself to Iowa and New Hampshire just to see how well Rand is doing on the ground.

[LawnWake]

If you don't think Rand is a legitimate contender, than you need to get yourself to Iowa and New Hampshire just to see how well Rand is doing on the ground.

Being a legitemate contender is more than just a good ground game. He needs to project strength and electability. He's projecting electability, just not strength. It needs to be a debate performance that legitemizes him in the eyes of the nation. Ground game with a caucus win only means so much. Look how well Ron did at the caucus in both New Hampshire and Iowa? It didn't do him any good in the long run.

I'm not trying to be cynical here. I have hopes for Rand and I think he can turn it around. Thing is though, he really needs to.

[RabbitMan]

What people are trying to say is that the Iowa caucus will have him over-perform with our ground game.

If he can stay in the running and come off as legit as anyone else until then, he is in a very good place for how challenging this primary is going to be.

[Peace&Freedom]

For the next week, Rand should answer every interview question about his standing in the race with "oh, I'm polling at about 4%" to help pump up his momentum and the perception that his 'surge' has begun, to ensure the media talking points become geared around that, instead of the 2% number that would exclude him from the next debate. This should be followed up by Rand putting on a masterful performance at the debate, which in turn should control the narrative in his favor for the week or so following the event.

[William Tell]

Rand is ahead of Huckabee and Christie on the RealClear Politics average.

[TomtheTinker]

If you don't think Rand is a legitimate contender, than you need to get yourself to Iowa and New Hampshire just to see how well Rand is doing on the ground.

I have friends/fam in NH and they all think Rand is gonna win NH.

[MrGoose]

I have friends/fam in NH and they all think Rand is gonna win NH.
Why is that? Honest question.

[limequat]

I kinda get the feeling that rand is doing a bit of rope-a-dope here.
He knows the media will never be on his side. Let them clamor over the flavor of the month while he gives solid and maybe a bit bland interviews. What he's not doing is hanging himself with a Dean Scream or a Quayle moment. I wonder if we might see a more impassioned Rand later on.

[Tinnuhana]

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-national-gop-primary

Good charts of the "flavor of the month" in the 2012 race.

[KingNothing]

If the polls predict virtually every candidate to be the front runner at some point or another, and only one of candidates eventually wins, are the polls accurate?

Even if they are accurate, do they add any value? What is the point of knowing if Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, or Rick Perry, or Michele Bachmann or any other clown is leading this month?

Certainly, it is better to have information than to not have information, but I'm starting to come around to the notion that polls really don't matter, this far out anyway.

[KingNothing]

I kinda get the feeling that rand is doing a bit of rope-a-dope here.
He knows the media will never be on his side. Let them clamor over the flavor of the month while he gives solid and maybe a bit bland interviews. What he's not doing is hanging himself with a Dean Scream or a Quayle moment. I wonder if we might see a more impassioned Rand later on.

I kind of think you're right. If there's one thing we've seen from Rand over the years, it is that he knows how to draw attention to himself. If he wanted it now, don't you think he'd have it?

[Brett85]

Fox came out with a poll today that has Rand at 3%. So that means that his overall average is still 3%, so he seems to be pretty safe right now. Kasich and Christie are both down to 3.2% after the Fox poll. It would be nice if Rand could go ahead of them and not be at the end of the stage in the next debate. Huckabee came in at 5% in the Fox poll and raised his average to 3.5%.

[r3volution 3.0]

I kinda get the feeling that rand is doing a bit of rope-a-dope here.
He knows the media will never be on his side. Let them clamor over the flavor of the month while he gives solid and maybe a bit bland interviews. What he's not doing is hanging himself with a Dean Scream or a Quayle moment. I wonder if we might see a more impassioned Rand later on.

To some extent, I think that's true.

Surely, Rand would rather be higher in the polls; let's not kid ourselves and pretend like he could be at 20% right now if he wanted.

But, it doesn't follow that he's shot all his powder already either; leading the polls now has limited value, much more later.

So, I think the campaign is keeping some tricks up their sleeve for later.

I think we're yet going to see some big action, and ad dollars, especially in the last two or three weeks before IA.

[eleganz]

To be honest, it doesn't even matter who stands where if they're anywhere outside of the middle 2-4 positions.

The most important thing is that Rand gets in the debate and fights for more time. If he gets in as 10th and receives more time than 9th place candidate, he's won.

Rand did a decent job at differentiating himself from the rest of the pack last time, if he can amp it up, he will be great. He needs to generate more interest and donations and he proved at the last debate that he could do that.

Now that he has been hitting the other candidates hard on the red line in Syria, he could have a home run at the next debate but don't underestimate everyone else, they'll have good responses. Rand just needs to differentiate.

If anybody lives in SoCal, message me, theres going to be a watch party in Orange County.

[Chieppa1]

The Rubio bump is coming.

[Paul4Prez]

If the polls say 4% he is realistically sitting at about 8-9% when the landline factor is removed

The landline factor is a myth. The polls are pretty accurate, especially when several polls by different companies agree. Rand still has some work to do. The good news is that Christie and Kasich may be exiting stage left.

[eleganz]

The landline factor is a myth. The polls are pretty accurate, especially when several polls by different companies agree.

I hope nobody is taking this post seriously.