Who's the competition for Iowa? What's your analysis?

[limequat]

Rand was right, we did already get a significant reshuffling this week. Trump is way down, Carly is way up, and Walker is out! Perry dropped out and Carson is looking rough around the edges.

Who will be the one to beat in Iowa? I can't see moderates Jeb, Kasich, or Trump having a chance. Carly could flame out before then. I think we'll see a massive Rubio pump along with a mild Huckabee resurrection (just for Paul).

[Jonderdonk]

Rand was right, we did already get a significant reshuffling this week. Trump is way down, Carly is way up, and Walker is out! Perry dropped out and Carson is looking rough around the edges.

Who will be the one to beat in Iowa? I can't see moderates Jeb, Kasich, or Trump having a chance. Carly could flame out before then. I think we'll see a massive Rubio pump along with a mild Huckabee resurrection (just for Paul).

I think a Huckabee resurrection would be a good thing... To split the evangelical vote another way...

[luctor-et-emergo]

I think a Huckabee resurrection would be a good thing... To split the evangelical vote another way...

How do you think the evangelical vote is split now ?

[Sola_Fide]

I said from the beginning that Carson is going to be a strong contender. I think Cruz and Huckabee will show well. I think Trump will be sunk by then. Carly I don't know about.

Iowa is much about the ground game. Rand can surprise us with a potent ground game.

[TheNewYorker]

Pataki. With walker out, Pataki will begin surging

[Jonderdonk]

How do you think the evangelical vote is split now ?

Carson, Cruz, Kasich, Huckabee, Santorum. I think Cruz is a big threat to Rand in Iowa, so it would be nice for Huck and/or Santorum to start doing better to more evenly split the vote between evangelicals. That way Rand would have a better chance.

[Sola_Fide]

Pataki. With walker out, Pataki will begin surging

What about Graham?

[Sola_Fide]

Carson, Cruz, Kasich, Huckabee, Santorum. I think Cruz is a big threat to Rand in Iowa, so it would be nice for Huck and/or Santorum to start doing better to more evenly split the vote between evangelicals. That way Rand would have a better chance.

Agree.

[TheNewYorker]

What about Graham?

Ha... No way. He can't even get in the top 5 in his home state...

[Sola_Fide]

Ha... No way. He can't even get in the top 5 in his home state...

Wouldn't that be hilarious if Graham started surging?

[Jonderdonk]

Wouldn't that be hilarious if Graham started surging?

I wanna see Graham and Trump on the same stage...

The b-team stage of course.

[TheNewYorker]

Wouldn't that be hilarious if Graham started surging?

Ha. His RCP average right now is 0.0. He literally is the biggest joke of a candidate ever. I don't think I've heard his name in the news in more than 3 months.

Though, with walker out now, if they stick with 11 spots at the next debate, Santorum is likely to be in it.

[luctor-et-emergo]

Ha. His RCP average right now is 0.0. He literally is the biggest joke of a candidate ever. I don't think I've heard his name in the news in more than 3 months.

Though, with walker out now, if they stick with 11 spots at the next debate, Santorum is likely to be in it.

Well I guess next on the list to drop out; Pataki, Graham, Santorum, Christie, Jindal. So It's going to be interesting to see if they maybe change the pre-debate.

[limequat]

Well I guess next on the list to drop out; Pataki, Graham, Santorum, Christie, Jindal. So It's going to be interesting to see if they maybe change the pre-debate.

There likely will not be a kiddie table debate next time.
Probably regular criteria. Eligible to run for president and polling above 1% in national polls. As it stand today, 10 candidates, drawing the line at (around?) christie.

[Xenliad]

Assuming Trump doesn't stay in the race if he's not the frontrunner and Fiorina is just a flavor of the month,

Cruz seems to have made Huckabee irrelevant. If this race will be like 2012, then he is in a strong position for Santorum's 24.56%. Carson could take a chuck of that from him, but I'm not sure Carson will run as hard as Cruz.

I really hope Ron's 21.43% has the sense to go to Rand, but many of them are dumb enough to fall for Trump, and some of them are dumb enough to go to Sanders, so who knows.

Romney's 24.53% would naturally go to Bush/Rubio.

That still leaves ~30% of them confused as to which wing of the Republican party that they are in, so they are wildcards.

[kbs021]

I have no idea actually.. It is so hard to gauge what is going on in Iowa at this point. I do know that Rand's ground game is legit. The 10k student goal in Iowa really gets me excited. I think we are going to do very well there. If we get close to that number and keep 75-80 percent of 2012 voters, we win PERIOD. We need to get that done.

[Yehudi]

Pataki. With walker out, Pataki will begin surging
Gilmore first.

[cindy25]

Huckabee and Santorum are good at retail politics, as is Graham . Iowa is retail state.

[PaleoPaul]

Here's the list of all of the state and local politicians who endorsed Walker:


State and local legislators

Greg Reed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Reed), Alabama Senate Majority Leader[20] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-20)
Judson Hill (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judson_Hill), Georgia State Senator[21] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkergeorgia-21)
Matt Ramsey (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Ramsey_(politician)), Georgia House Majority Caucus Whip[21] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkergeorgia-21)
Christian Coomer (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Christian_Coomer&action=edit&redlink=1), Georgia State Representative[21] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkergeorgia-21)
Jerry Behn (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Behn), Iowa State Senator[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Mark Costello (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Costello_(Iowa_politician)), Iowa State Senator[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Randy Feenstra (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Feenstra), Iowa State Senator[23] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkerendorsements-23)
Julian Garrett (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Garrett), Iowa State Senator[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Mark Segebart (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mark_Segebart&action=edit&redlink=1), Iowa State Senator[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Tom Shipley (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tom_Shipley_(Iowa_politician)&action=edit&redlink=1), Iowa State Senator[23] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkerendorsements-23)
Amy Sinclair (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Amy_Sinclair&action=edit&redlink=1), Iowa State Senator[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Brad Zaun (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Zaun), Iowa State Senator[23] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkerendorsements-23)
Dan Zumbach (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Dan_Zumbach&action=edit&redlink=1), Iowa State Senator[23] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkerendorsements-23)
Terry Baxter (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Terry_Baxter&action=edit&redlink=1), Iowa State Representative[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Brian Best (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Brian_Best_(Iowa_politician)&action=edit&redlink=1), Iowa State Representative[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Dave Deyoe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Deyoe), Iowa State Representative[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Dean Fisher (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Dean_Fisher&action=edit&redlink=1), Iowa State Representative[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Lee Hein (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Hein), Iowa State Representative[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
John Landon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Landon), Iowa State Representative[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Nancy Boettger (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Boettger), former Iowa State Senator[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Dave Mulder (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Mulder), former Iowa State Senator[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Dave Thompson (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Thompson_(Minnesota_politician)), Minnesota State Senator[24] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-minnesotaendorsements-24)
Kurt Zellers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Zellers), former Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives[24] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-minnesotaendorsements-24)
Marty Seifert (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marty_Seifert), former Minority Leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives[24] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-minnesotaendorsements-24)
Kurt Daudt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Daudt), Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives[25] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-25)
Rick Peterson, Waukee City Councilman[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-iowaendorsements-22)
Leah Vukmir (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leah_Vukmir), Wisconsin State Senator[19] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-Jason_Stein.2C_Mary_Spicuzza_and_Patrick_Marley-19)
Mark Obenshain (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Obenshain), Virginia State Senator[26] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-26)
Terry Kilgore (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terry_Kilgore), Virginia State Delegate[27] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkervirginia-27)
David Ramadan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ramadan), Virginia State Delegate[27] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkervirginia-27)
Margaret Ransone (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Ransone), Virginia State Delegate[27] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkervirginia-27)
Ralph Norman (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Norman), South Carolina State Representative[28] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkersouthcarolina-28)
Garry R. Smith (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garry_R._Smith), South Carolina State Representative[28] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkersouthcarolina-28)
Joshua A. Putnam (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Joshua_A._Putnam&action=edit&redlink=1), South Carolina State Representative[28] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-walkersouthcarolina-28)
Phyllis Woods (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Phyllis_Woods&action=edit&redlink=1), former New Hampshire State Representative[29] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Walker_presidential_campaign,_2016#cite_note-29)



Rand's campaign should try to seek their endorsements!

[69360]

I think the media will spring big scandals and/or bimbos on Trump and Carson in the weeks before voting, Jeb will be "surging" and win or place 2. Rand will probably end up about 4th or 5th.

[Liberty74]

Way to early to say who will be the front runner by Iowa. I haven't seen any recent Iowa poll but I do remember Walker being that guy with like 28% earlier this spring/summer. My point is this race is fluid, so expect anything.

In general, the person who goes after the religious vote in Iowa will be the one to beat. Not sure who that person will be. Last go round it was Romney and Santorum kicking ass in that category, hence why Ron eventually lost.

[CaptUSA]

Wouldn't that be hilarious if Graham started surging?

I think that the PTB would love to be able to get Graham n the main stage. They have Christie, but they would LOVE Graham. Neither of those two clowns will win, but they serve a useful purpose.

I heard media rumblings after the last JV debate about Graham. Those kinda got hidden by the big stories out of the main debate and the Trump/Carson/Fiorina controversies that followed, but I really think they want to get Graham more exposure. The establishment will be pushing people to clear some space for him real soon. Unfortunately, I think Carson is going to be an early victim. :( I just hope that when Carson is nudged out, that he remembers who stuck it to him.

[65fastback2+2]

Carson. the way this has all played out so far it would have to be carson.

[amartin315]

anyone can swoop in at the last second and steal iowa. totally didn't see it coming last time with santorum. it's never too late to spike up in the polls.

all I would say is who isn't a threat, and that would be like Graham

[Yehudi]

Here's the list of all of the state and local politicians who endorsed Walker:



Rand's campaign should try to seek their endorsements!

Better get Jesse Benton on that ASAP.

[Paulistinian]

Here's the list of all of the state and local politicians who endorsed Walker:



Rand's campaign should try to seek their endorsements!


Is there a way to reach out to Iowan Paul supporters directly? I think it would make a big difference if residents of those districts contacted those politicians and told them they want them to support Rand and why.

[PaleoPaul]

Is there a way to reach out to Iowan Paul supporters directly? I think it would make a big difference if residents of those districts contacted those politicians and told them they want them to support Rand and why.
I'm not sure how.