Better than we think in Iowa?

[dt_]

Look at it this way.

In August, the Ames straw poll showed that Paul had 9.1% of the vote.
He was fifth, Tancredo 4th, Brownback 3rd, Huckabee 2nd, Romney 1st.

I think it's safe to assume that Tancredo is a non-issue now and also Brownback has since dropped out of the race.

So are we doing better than we think?
9% in August was before the November 5th media exposure barrage, before the bulk of the grassroots got on their feet, and obviously before December 16th, the blimp, etc.

So is it possible that we have a much larger support base in Iowa than the polls are giving credit for?

open question to Iowans: how many Ron Paul signs and other things like billboards do you see around your area? how about as opposed to Romney, Huck, etc.?

[kylejack]

Ames is not relevant, as several front-runners were not even participating.

[risiusj]

Giuliani and McCain were on the straw poll ballot, they just didn't campaign in Iowa at all. They still have only campaigned minimally, so that's good for us.

[kylejack]

Giuliani and McCain were on the straw poll ballot, they just didn't campaign in Iowa at all. They still have only campaigned minimally, so that's good for us.
Actually, Giuliani has been quite present in Iowa since Ames.

[mwkaufman]

We really need Thompson and Romney and Huckabee to fight and we could easily slip into 3rd or better. A 4th is fine, finishing behind Giuliani or McCain would be a disappointment.

[Austin]

I think this is a given for all polls; we are doing better than they let on. Especially after hearing the campaign head in Iowa speak, it seems even more likely.

[saahmed]

Well, Giuliani might be up there, a lot of people here seem to blindly support him without now any of his stances. I haven't really seen too many signs for Republican candidates here. I see a lot of Obama and some Clinton. I've seen a couple Paul bumper stickers. TV and radio ads are dominated by Romney. Thompson and Giuliani have a lot of radio. There is not enough Paul advertising in Eastern Iowa.

[Furis]

A 4th is fine

NO, IT ISNT!!!!

Anything less than 3rd will mean disaster for the campaign. Iowa is the FIRST the country if he doesnt make a good showing there (ie top 3) winning NH wont mean anything. Iowa is a HUGE momentum builder.

[saahmed]

NO, IT ISNT!!!!

Anything less than 3rd will mean disaster for the campaign. Iowa is the FIRST the country if he doesnt make a good showing there (ie top 3) winning NH wont mean anything. Iowa is a HUGE momentum builder.

We need, and I think we can get, a top 3 finish with all the canvassing that will be going on in coming weeks. But the campaign definitely needs to put up a lot more TV and radio ads. I am bombarded with Obama, Clinton, and Romney ads, but have only caught the end of one Ron Paul ad.

[Paulitician]

We're definitely doing better than what the polls tell us, but there is still a huge amount of work to be done. Ron Paul needs to seriously work on the ads there, and spend some time on the ground too, making sure all those anti-Iraq War Republicans turn out for him, and even persuading some pro-Iraq War Republicans while he's at it. It is possible to get 1st place in Iowa, the turn out just needs to be extemely high. Unfortunately, I think HQ hasn't done enough to ensure that, and time is running out quickly.

[John of Des Moines]

If it's of any interest, I worked a high school Republican Caucus training day yesterday just west of Waterloo. Students went from room to room for 15 minutes to hear candidate reps. (Paul, Huck, Mitt, McCain - no Rudy, Fred, Tancredo, or Hunter and top 6 of Democrats - no Kuchy and Gravel). After all ten groups of students came thru then there was lunch (chicken fajitas, a salad and a chocolate milk). Democrats caucused in the gym and Republicans in the library. Of the 250 (+/-) students 86 caucused Republican. It was run sorta run like a caucus except each student could talk 2 to 3 minutes for their candidate. Huck's kids kept appealing to logical fallacies, to pity, fear, the masses. Wanted to get up and speak myself. No student wanted to speak for McCain so his staffer spoke twice. Mitt's people and the student who spoke for him was really, really nervous. I did prep as I could the Paul speakers to rebut Huck's kids. At the end, the vote was 3 for Mitt, 18 for McCain, 29 for Paul, and 36 for Huck.

[tiznow]

We need, and I think we can get, a top 3 finish with all the canvassing that will be going on in coming weeks. But the campaign definitely needs to put up a lot more TV and radio ads. I am bombarded with Obama, Clinton, and Romney ads, but have only caught the end of one Ron Paul ad.

your in eastern iowa I wouldn't worry too much about it

we in the liberal capital of iowa not really a target to go ad crazy in to begin with (if you are republican)

polk county alone (des moines) is worth 25% of the GOP vote historically and it is all tallied up state wide

[Blowback]

Ames is not relevant, as several front-runners were not even participating.

That actually makes our 9% even stronger and it makes the other candidates higher percentages (especially Romney and Huckabee's) even weaker.

Also remember that the Iowa straw poll was back in the day (pre-NOv. 5th... basically pre-alot of stuff).

I think Iowa will do better than most expect but we will jsut have to wait and see.

[tiznow]

the last democratic debate aired here in iowa city they did run a ron paul ad during it though that made me smile

[tiznow]

That actually makes our 9% even stronger and it makes the other candidates higher percentages (especially Romney and Huckabee's) even weaker.

Also remember that the Iowa straw poll was back in the day (pre-NOv. 5th... basically pre-alot of stuff).

I think Iowa will do better than most expect but we will jsut have to wait and see.

my low expectation is 10% my high expectation is 30% we'll be somewhere in that range

if we can pull upper teens that'll get us 3rd

rudy, fred and mccain will be 15% or lower

and high teens (lets say 18%) based on turnout in 2000 is about 15,000-16000 votes state wide pretty sure this is doable

the thing we got going in iowa is turnout is crap, and we obviously have the "hard-core" support

[Ron Paul Fan]

I'm also in Eastern Iowa, the liberal side of Iowa. I haven't seen any ads lately, so hopefully they get some going soon. Do you think they're still running them at a good pace in Des Moines and Western Iowa where the a lot of Republicans are? Anyone from Western Iowa here? I think we can do well in Iowa. The turnout will be fairly low and we've still got a ways to go here. There's a big debate on the 12th, the tea party on the 16th, and we've got literature drops going, radio ads, WOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!