New Des Moines Register Caucus Poll

[Robrank]

Trump 23
Carson 18
Cruz 8
Walker 8
Bush 6
Rubio 6
Fiorina 5
Paul 4
Huckabee 4
Kasich 2
Christie 2
Jindal 2
Perry 1
Santorum 1
Graham 0
Unsure/Not committed 10

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31-update.pdf



SELZER & COMPANY
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats

Pretty sizable margin of error, but DM Register is usually pretty good (See 2012 polling). But lots of time and Rand could be almost at double digits...

[luctor-et-emergo]

While I don't have too much against Carson, he's one of the better ones... How can he be doing so well ?

This may be the bottom in the decline for Rand. Some sanity has to return at some point.

First part of that sanity I think is seeing who's below 4%.

[hells_unicorn]

If Carson overtakes Trump in the polls, things may start to get interesting, particularly if Trump or one of the others does something stupid while trying to attack him.

[69360]

Polls are pointless right now. I don't even look at them. Trump and Carson are not going to win the primary nor be potus. Once they implode, we'll know where the cards will fall.

[Isaac Bickerstaff]

It's kind of funny how opposites are polling close together. Trump is a loose cannon, but Carson is measured and calm. Fiorna is basically Stasi on domestic spying while Paul is the only one advocating for privacy. May mean nothing, but it is kind of interesting.

[hells_unicorn]

Polls are pointless right now. I don't even look at them. Trump and Carson are not going to win the primary nor be potus. Once they implode, we'll know where the cards will fall.

The only thing that polls may indicate what tactics may be employed by the candidates. To me, the most interesting part of this is that Bush is doing so poorly and that all of the absolute worst candidates are right where they belong...ROCK BOTTOM.

[MarcusI]

One could even argue that this poll is showing a trend upwards, there have been 3 polls in Iowa in the last month which had Rand lower (I didnt check the polling methods of all the polls though).

Basically he is only max. 4 percentage points behind any GOP establishment candidate, with a poll margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. (Yes, I know Trump IS establishment, but not GOP establishment)

About Carson I dont know too much. Judging by a very first look it wouldn't be as disgusting to speak about him than to speak about Trump (like 95% of all threads in the "other candidates" section of RPF at the moment).

[luctor-et-emergo]

Is Carson good VP material ?

I know hardly anything about him. Though, there's something interesting about having two doctors run for P/VP. To heal America.

[randomname]

cruz's numbers are picking up again it seems?

[Isaac Bickerstaff]

I think Carson would be decent Senator material, but he strikes me as a bit naïve and a bit of a hawk.

[MarcusI]

cruz's numbers are picking up again it seems?

All polls in Iowa in the last month had him between 7 and 9%

[squirl22]

Carson comes across as a decent human being with an inspiring personal story. But, he really has no position on anything. He made some stupid statement about gun ownership, like if you live in some places you shouldn't be able to own one, but in other places you should. I know nothing about what he believes regarding foreign policy and war. He did well in the debate; his closing statement rated as the number one most memorable moment (Rand's clash was Christie was number 2), so he is doing well. Cruz is using Trump now just like he used Rand for personal gain; I would not vote for him, he reminds me of a used car salesman and he is a neocon hawk and connected to big money....phoney person.

[MarcusI]

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31-update.pdf

Of the republicans asked, only 47% said that they will definetely attend the caucus, 53% said "probably". Only 64% attended any GOP caucus in the past.

[acptulsa]

Polls are pointless right now. I don't even look at them. Trump and Carson are not going to win the primary nor be potus. Once they implode, we'll know where the cards will fall.

More to the point, it's a caucus. A good, old fashioned caucus. And our people know how to sway a crowd.

This isn't some poll where a person can make an embarrassing vote and be assured no one will know. Quite the opposite. If you vote for a clown there, you get the hairy eyeball from your neighbors.

[asurfaholic]

My burning question is - where will all the Christie voters go when he drops out?

[William Tell]

While I don't have too much against Carson, he's one of the better ones... How can he be doing so well ?


Trump and Carson have never held elected office. They can say whatever they want and some people will take their statements at face value. Although their past statements should be considered, that doesn't mean people will. All the governors and senators running have records to defend.

This gives them a certain advantage, especially in this climate. But historically guys who are not elected officials lose in the end, see Herman Cain, Steve Forbes etc.

Carson writes his own story, nobody major has taken his past liberal stances to task.

[kahless]

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-29/ben-carson-edging-close-to-front-runner-trump-in-latest-iowa-poll
http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iKT6aExgLZtM/v1/-1x-1.jpg

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i0YPViqNQ34s/v1/-1x-1.jpg

Downward trend nationally.

Reuters Rand Paul Trend National - 5 day rolling average
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/show/8|TR130/dates/20150731-20150828/collapsed/false

Beginning of the month %6.1, Range 4.5 to 8.

End of month: 2.1%. Range %1.8 to %4.6.

http://i.imgur.com/JH2bnZp.png

[klamath]

Iowa May 29 - Aug 26 shows Rand on downward trend.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-29/ben-carson-edging-close-to-front-runner-trump-in-latest-iowa-poll
http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iKT6aExgLZtM/v1/-1x-1.jpg

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i0YPViqNQ34s/v1/-1x-1.jpg

Downward trend nationally.

Reuters Rand Paul Trend National - 5 day rolling average
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/show/8|TR130/dates/20150731-20150828/collapsed/false

Beginning of the month %6.1, Range 4.5 to 8.

End of month: 2.1%. Range %1.8 to %4.6.

http://i.imgur.com/JH2bnZp.png Well it looks like I am going to have to start promoting Carson. If he is the only one to take down the Goddamned evil trump so be it.

[William Tell]

Carson isn't taking down Trump. He's taking some of the non Trump voters, Tea Party ppl who don't like Trump.

[Brett85]

Rand's favorable rating is 39% and unfavorable rating is 49%. I hope that his advisers are showing him these numbers. If he doesn't figure out that he needs to act calm and professional in the debates, then his favorable numbers will continue to get worse. I sure hope that he doesn't put on a repeat performance of the first debate in the CNN debate.

[kbs021]

Yea we need to get the favorable numbers up for sure. He needs to promote himself being a career doctor more in addition to the Constitutional candidate. So many people don't know he is a doctor whereas everyone that knows Carson, knows he is a doctor. The next debate will be important for Rand. I don't mind him jumping in because he is going to get the least amount of time, however, he needs to practice more at this. He can talk with the best of them, however this isn't a one on one debate.

[69360]

The only thing that polls may indicate what tactics may be employed by the candidates. To me, the most interesting part of this is that Bush is doing so poorly and that all of the absolute worst candidates are right where they belong...ROCK BOTTOM.

Don't worry when Trump has his scandal or bimbo explosion, they will all go back to Jeb.

[jkob]

Trump and Carson are probably going to run together should Trump get the nomination, they've been playing footsies for awhile and Carson is the perfect contrast to Trump personality wise. Politics is just reality TV; a battle of personalities, character, and whatever the fake narrative of the day is. Rand would of had a better chance at president if he was the complete 'mad dog of the senate' and made no friends but he played right into their image trap as your typical wishy-washy ambitious politician. People don't look at his partnership with McConnell and say it makes strategic sense, it just loses him credibility whereas the establishment just laughs at him for even trying.

Policy means nothing, ideology means nothing, this is electoral politics and the political parties are just the middle man being cut out. Candidates can just make their case straight the masses and the masses are stupid and easily led astray, to win their attention then you have to play their game. Remember, everybody loves the bad guy on these TV shows so negative publicity isn't necessarily if the intentions are pure of heart. There are no lines between information, entertainment, and politics any more and there is no going back. We have to make the emotional argument for liberty, we have to go to its extremes, we have to be bold in our ideas and our vision for change. Rand needs to embrace the radical persona, he needs to be the guy that wants to bring down the leviathan, double down because nobody respects a wimp.

[rg17]

My burning question is - where will all the Christie voters go when he drops out?

To Bush and Rubio.

[LibertyEagle]

If Carson overtakes Trump in the polls, things may start to get interesting, particularly if Trump or one of the others does something stupid while trying to attack him.

Trump has such a huge ego, that if he drops out of 1st place, I am betting he will drop out.

[Brett85]

Trump has such a huge ego, that if he drops out of 1st place, I am betting he will drop out.

I agree. That's what I'm thinking as well. He couldn't stand to not be in the center of the debate stage.

[LibertyEagle]

Rand has got to clear up that comment about him accepting money from Trump. I think it's hurting him. And it's stupid, because he didn't. Trump donated to the university who sponsored the trip to Haiti for the eye surgeries.

[Liberty74]

My burning question is - where will all the Christie voters go when he drops out?

I heard Graham might be the first to drop out. Where will his 0% voters go?

[luctor-et-emergo]

Trump has such a huge ego, that if he drops out of 1st place, I am betting he will drop out.

Totally agree.

[LibertyEagle]

I heard Graham might be the first to drop out. Where will his 0% voters go?

To another who puts Israel before their own country.

[Dianne]

Trump and Carson are probably going to run together should Trump get the nomination, they've been playing footsies for awhile and Carson is the perfect contrast to Trump personality wise. Politics is just reality TV; a battle of personalities, character, and whatever the fake narrative of the day is. Rand would of had a better chance at president if he was the complete 'mad dog of the senate' and made no friends but he played right into their image trap as your typical wishy-washy ambitious politician. People don't look at his partnership with McConnell and say it makes strategic sense, it just loses him credibility whereas the establishment just laughs at him for even trying.

Policy means nothing, ideology means nothing, this is electoral politics and the political parties are just the middle man being cut out. Candidates can just make their case straight the masses and the masses are stupid and easily led astray, to win their attention then you have to play their game. Remember, everybody loves the bad guy on these TV shows so negative publicity isn't necessarily if the intentions are pure of heart. There are no lines between information, entertainment, and politics any more and there is no going back. We have to make the emotional argument for liberty, we have to go to its extremes, we have to be bold in our ideas and our vision for change. Rand needs to embrace the radical persona, he needs to be the guy that wants to bring down the leviathan, double down because nobody respects a wimp.

I was thinking Fiorina as VP if it appears Hillary will be nominated.

[CPUd]

Rand has got to clear up that comment about him accepting money from Trump. I think it's hurting him. And it's stupid, because he didn't. Trump donated to the university who sponsored the trip to Haiti for the eye surgeries.

He did that the first interview after the debate, and did so repeatedly the next 3 or 4 after that.

[PCKY]

Trump and Carson are probably going to run together should Trump get the nomination, they've been playing footsies for awhile and Carson is the perfect contrast to Trump personality wise. Politics is just reality TV; a battle of personalities, character, and whatever the fake narrative of the day is. Rand would of had a better chance at president if he was the complete 'mad dog of the senate' and made no friends but he played right into their image trap as your typical wishy-washy ambitious politician. People don't look at his partnership with McConnell and say it makes strategic sense, it just loses him credibility whereas the establishment just laughs at him for even trying.

Policy means nothing, ideology means nothing, this is electoral politics and the political parties are just the middle man being cut out. Candidates can just make their case straight the masses and the masses are stupid and easily led astray, to win their attention then you have to play their game. Remember, everybody loves the bad guy on these TV shows so negative publicity isn't necessarily if the intentions are pure of heart. There are no lines between information, entertainment, and politics any more and there is no going back. We have to make the emotional argument for liberty, we have to go to its extremes, we have to be bold in our ideas and our vision for change. Rand needs to embrace the radical persona, he needs to be the guy that wants to bring down the leviathan, double down because nobody respects a wimp.
It's time to go full on Ron Paul.
Question for any O'Reilly Factor watchers...and this has been bugging me...the two shows before the debate O'Reilly predicted that the only candidate to take on Trump would be Rand Paul...he was being quite smug--like he knew something. Then low and behold, right off the bat, Rand goes after Trump. His statement was logical and reasoned then Trump drops him with some stupid oneliner.
After the debate, OReilly never mentioned it again (I know this because my husband forces me to watch every night). And....Rand Paul appears with Chris Wallace on the Factor (like when was the last time Rand was on the Factor?). Do I need to put my tin foil hat away?
To your point, though, the best person to echo that message, draw huge crowds, and get momentum is Ron Paul. The ISIS video not withstanding.

[PCKY]

He did that the first interview after the debate, and did so repeatedly the next 3 or 4 after that.
I think Trump acknowledged it too.

[rich34]

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31-update.pdf

Of the republicans asked, only 47% said that they will definetely attend the caucus, 53% said "probably". Only 64% attended any GOP caucus in the past.

It would be nice to know the results of only the 47%. This is the kind of stuff the polling firms don't start accurately "guessing" until about a month out from the election. I strongly suspect Rand, like Ron, will be "surging" during that time period. Whether real, or simply always being there Rand has to milk it for all it's worth.

[rawraw04]

I think Carson would be decent Senator material, but he strikes me as a bit naïve and a bit of a hawk.

Carson is for mandatory vaccinations without any exemptions. He is on the board of a pharma company. If you deny a persons right to their body then you have no respect for the constitution and should not hold and office swearing to uphold the constitution!

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

Rand has got to clear up that comment about him accepting money from Trump. I think it's hurting him. And it's stupid, because he didn't. Trump donated to the university who sponsored the trip to Haiti for the eye surgeries.

Rand has clarified that several times, whenever he's asked. It does him no good to draw further attention to it.

[Uriah]

8% identified as members of the liberty movement. Top of page 12. http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31-update.pdf

[adelina]

Walker down to 8%, at one point he was in the 20s. It just shows you how fluid things are.

[brandon]

What happened to Huckabee? I thought Iowa loved him.

[Uriah]

What happened to Huckabee? I thought Iowa loved him.

They still do. He has a net +31 favorable and 60% of those that did not choose him as their 1st or 2nd choice would still vote for him. Rand isn't doing nearly as well.

[limequat]

8% identified as members of the liberty movement. Top of page 12. http://www.gannett-cdn.com/LDSN/desmoines/PDF/iowa-poll-study-2125-methodology-aug31-update.pdf

And another 21% as Tea Party. And yet Rand can only pull 4%?? Rand only gets HALF the liberty movement vote??? Bullshit.

[RonPaulMall]

And another 21% as Tea Party. And yet Rand can only pull 4%?? Rand only gets HALF the liberty movement vote??? Bullshit.

It makes sense when you look at the campaign Rand has run. He's backed away from his father on a number of issues that have cost him significant support among the Liberty Crowd, and he has totally alienated himself from the Tea Party/Conservative folks that he relied on to win his Senate Campaign. Mainstream/Establishment voters were never going to vote for him in the first place, so what he's left with is the rump of former supporters of his father that have remained loyal. Half of his father's hard core supporters would put him at around 5%.

[DisneyFan]

Trump 23
Carson 18
Cruz 8
Walker 8
Bush 6
Rubio 6
Fiorina 5
Paul 4
Huckabee 4
Kasich 2
Christie 2
Jindal 2
Perry 1
Santorum 1
Graham 0
Unsure/Not committed 10

So, 46%, almost half, support a candidate who has no political record. No reason to believe that the person they like will do even 1% of what is promised, but by golly, they give a good speech, so let's make 'em the most powerful person in the USA. How pathetic.

[luctor-et-emergo]

So, 46%, almost half, support a candidate who has no political record. No reason to believe that the person they like will do even 1% of what is promised, but by golly, they give a good speech. How unbelievably pathetic.

Well in a way it's good, it shows people are not satisfied with the status quo. Historically speaking though, when people are dissatisfied with their government they don't usually make all the right choices. Many times they will follow whomever is the worst divider and warmonger.. I guess that is what we are observing here.

[Matt McGuire]

The fact that Trump is doing so well may give voters more confidence to go for a non-politician like Carson. He's not not a Paul, but I like him on most issues, not to mention I think he believes what he says. I'm interested to see where he ends up.

[PCKY]

What are the chances that Rand's supporters have dived onto Trump? Not the Ron Paul folks, but the disaffected?

[Brett85]

And another 21% as Tea Party. And yet Rand can only pull 4%?? Rand only gets HALF the liberty movement vote??? Bullshit.

That doesn't surprise me at all. You even have people on this forum who claim to be members of the liberty movement who support Trump. You have all kinds of people on Facebook who claim to have supported Ron Paul who are supporting Bernie Sanders this year. There are people in Iowa who even worked for Ron in 2012 who are supporting Ted Cruz this time.