timosman
08-05-2015, 08:19 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/world/middleeast/isis-or-al-qaeda-american-officials-split-over-biggest-threat.html
The Obama administration’s top intelligence, counterterrorism and law enforcement officials are divided over which terrorist group poses the biggest threat to the American homeland, the Islamic State or Al Qaeda and its affiliates.
The split reflects a rising concern that the Islamic State poses a more immediate danger because of its unprecedented social media campaign, using sophisticated online messaging to inspire followers to launch attacks across the United States.
Many intelligence and counterterrorism officials warn, however, that Qaeda operatives in Yemen and Syria are capitalizing on the turmoil in those countries to plot much larger “mass casualty” attacks, including bringing down airliners carrying hundreds of passengers.
This is not an academic argument. It will influence how the government allocates billions of dollars in counterterrorism funds, and how it assigns thousands of federal agents, intelligence analysts and troops to combat a multipronged threat that senior officials say is changing rapidly.
The issue already has prompted a White House review of its counterterrorism policy toward the Islamic State. And the National Counterterrorism Center has diverted analysts working on longer-term extremist threats to focus on the Islamic State, also called ISIS or ISIL, intelligence officials said.
In June, the F.B.I. had so many people under surveillance in terrorism-related investigations — mostly related to the Islamic State — that supervisors reassigned criminal squads to monitor terrorism suspects.
For all the concern, there have been no Qaeda attacks in the United States in 14 years, though some were thwarted or fell apart. And most of the Islamic State-inspired plots so far have been unsophisticated but increasingly difficult for the authorities to detect in advance.
American officials say this is not a black-and-white debate between those who worry more about Al Qaeda as the main threat to the homeland and those who say it is the Islamic State. Both are worrisome.
The Obama administration’s top intelligence, counterterrorism and law enforcement officials are divided over which terrorist group poses the biggest threat to the American homeland, the Islamic State or Al Qaeda and its affiliates.
The split reflects a rising concern that the Islamic State poses a more immediate danger because of its unprecedented social media campaign, using sophisticated online messaging to inspire followers to launch attacks across the United States.
Many intelligence and counterterrorism officials warn, however, that Qaeda operatives in Yemen and Syria are capitalizing on the turmoil in those countries to plot much larger “mass casualty” attacks, including bringing down airliners carrying hundreds of passengers.
This is not an academic argument. It will influence how the government allocates billions of dollars in counterterrorism funds, and how it assigns thousands of federal agents, intelligence analysts and troops to combat a multipronged threat that senior officials say is changing rapidly.
The issue already has prompted a White House review of its counterterrorism policy toward the Islamic State. And the National Counterterrorism Center has diverted analysts working on longer-term extremist threats to focus on the Islamic State, also called ISIS or ISIL, intelligence officials said.
In June, the F.B.I. had so many people under surveillance in terrorism-related investigations — mostly related to the Islamic State — that supervisors reassigned criminal squads to monitor terrorism suspects.
For all the concern, there have been no Qaeda attacks in the United States in 14 years, though some were thwarted or fell apart. And most of the Islamic State-inspired plots so far have been unsophisticated but increasingly difficult for the authorities to detect in advance.
American officials say this is not a black-and-white debate between those who worry more about Al Qaeda as the main threat to the homeland and those who say it is the Islamic State. Both are worrisome.