Rand Paul Predicts Possible Stock Market Crash Because of Fed

[mello]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-01/rand-paul-predicts-possible-stock-market-crash-because-of-fed

[NACBA]

Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul is warning that a stock market crash may be coming because the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates from fluctuating, Radio Iowa reported.

“People say, 'Oh, we can just do that forever,'” the Kentucky senator said Wednesday, according to the radio network. “I don’t think so. I think there’ll be a day of reckoning.”

Paul's family has a long history of Fed criticism. His father, former congressman (and three-time presidential candidate) Ron Paul, wrote a book called "End the Fed." The younger Paul, who hasn't gone quite that far (his campaign mantra is "audit the Fed"), made his comments while campaigning in Sioux City.

“I think there’ll be


http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-01/rand-paul-predicts-possible-stock-market-crash-because-of-fed

[randomname]

Rand the crazy conspiracy nut!

[Crashland]

Ron has been predicting this for quite a while. Eventually they'll be right

[Vanguard101]

Rand needs to shut up about this. He's not that knowledgeable about the Fed. Unless Spitznagel is feeding him talking points, I fear this will backfire.

[nikcers]

Rand needs to shut up about this. He's not that knowledgeable about the Fed. Unless Spitznagel is feeding him talking points, I fear this will backfire.

as far as i know all he said was interests rates cannot be artificially lowered without upsetting the market, and says he doesn't think it can go on forever.

[mello]

That should bump up my gold & silver coins.

[Ronin Truth]

Did Ron give him a hint?

[cocrehamster]

Ron has been predicting this for quite a while. Eventually they'll be right

How so? The fact is Ron and the Austrians have been predicting stock market crashes, bond market crashes, and high inflation for the last 4 years at least. Markets have always had cycles of bull and bear markets, someone who predicts a downturn during the entire bull market doesn't get to claim to be right when the inevitable downturn comes. Rand should avoid making stock market predictions.

[Krugminator2]

How so? The fact is Ron and the Austrians have been predicting stock market crashes, bond market crashes, and high inflation for the last 4 years at least. Markets have always had cycles of bull and bear markets, someone who predicts a downturn during the entire bull market doesn't get to claim to be right when the inevitable downturn comes. Rand should avoid making stock market predictions.

Agreed.

Though maybe it is a smart move by Rand. There is basically no penalty with the public for being perpetually wrong on these things and eventually he will be right.

I have a book on speculation by Victor Sperandeo written in 1994. In part of it, he basically goes through the Austrian case for why there will be a bond crisis. Of course he was wrong. In 2011, he did big presentation on the inevitably of imminent runaway inflation. It was well researched and completely wrong. I don't get the perpetual bearishness that Austrians have. This is one of those things that drives me berserk.

[Vanguard101]

How so? The fact is Ron and the Austrians have been predicting stock market crashes, bond market crashes, and high inflation for the last 4 years at least. Markets have always had cycles of bull and bear markets, someone who predicts a downturn during the entire bull market doesn't get to claim to be right when the inevitable downturn comes. Rand should avoid making stock market predictions.

this

[Dianne]

Fox News Poll: Views on economy improving, yet 59 percent still say it’s in bad shape. Since the majority of Americans believe the economy is still in bad shape, why not go there?

[Crashland]

How so? The fact is Ron and the Austrians have been predicting stock market crashes, bond market crashes, and high inflation for the last 4 years at least.
Exactly.


Markets have always had cycles of bull and bear markets, someone who predicts a downturn during the entire bull market doesn't get to claim to be right when the inevitable downturn comes.
Oh, but they can :D

[T.hill]

Rand needs to shut up about this. He's not that knowledgeable about the Fed. Unless Spitznagel is feeding him talking points, I fear this will backfire.


Rand needs to shut up about this. He's not that knowledgeable about the Fed. Unless Spitznagel is feeding him talking points, I fear this will backfire.

In what sense does Rand lack knowledge about the fed? The history of the fed, how the fed technically operates day-to-day, or the economic implications of the fed's continual credit expansion and fractional reserve banking?

There are videos of him that exist talking about economics, especially before he became a senator when he was campaigning for his father. I don't really understand how some people don't think Rand has a good grasp of libertarian theory or Austrian economics. For one his father is Ron Paul, that by itself should give you some reasonable expectation that he has some understanding of libertarian moral theories and Austrian economics, secondly there's also many in-depth articles available that you can read exploring his life and beliefs.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/10/06/revenge-rand-paul


Rand was a member of another group that attracted campus dissidents: the Young Conservatives of Texas. It was founded by Munisteri in 1980 as a more conservative breakaway organization from Young Americans for Freedom, which had been started by William F. Buckley in 1960. Munisteri told me that he and his colleagues didn’t like taking orders from the national Y.A.F. leadership.

Rand, who arrived the year after the Y.C.T.’s founding, became a leader of the Baylor chapter, which spread the Paul family gospel. Ron Paul became an adviser to the group and spoke on campus several times. In November of 1981, during Rand’s first semester, he and his father screened “The Incredible Bread Machine,” an anti-government documentary with a counterculture sensibility. It opened with I.R.S. agents confiscating horses from a farmer, cops seizing land, and federal agents breaking into the wrong home during a drug raid. The following semester, the Y.C.T. sponsored a talk on Austrian economics.


Rand’s friendship with George Paul was itself a small act of rebellion. George and Rand, who were both on the Baylor swim team and often spent six hours a day in the pool, became so close that, shortly after they arrived at Baylor, George legally changed his name from George Paul Schauerte to George Schauerte Paul. George was known on campus for his ability to acquire things without paying for them. He explained to me that he had “a God-given talent for being able to find things on short notice when they’re needed.” He once procured tanks of nitrous oxide from a friend studying dentistry. “He called them pleasure units,” Kristy Ditzler, who was on the swim team with Rand and George, said. She, Rand, and George got high on laughing gas. “We attached a scuba mask directly to it,” George said. “We knew it was dangerous, but we also knew how to adjust the air mixture to keep it just right.” (“College was a long time ago,” Paul said in a statement. “The high jinks reported by others make my college experience sound way more adventuresome than it actually was.”)

George, now a teacher and consultant living in Austria, drew Rand into a secret society at Baylor known as the NoZe Brotherhood, which had recently been banned from campus. The group was founded in the nineteen-twenties mostly to mock Baylor’s clubs and fraternities and to satirize its earnest religiosity. In 1982, Baylor’s president condemned the group for its “sacrilegious, vulgar, obscene, and sometimes tasteless crudities.” For initiation, called “unrush,” Rand was required to submit a satirical essay of “10,622 words or less.” George said that Rand signed the document with the name of a nineteenth-century anarchist and abolitionist, Lysander Spooner, who later opposed the Civil War on the ground that states had the right to secede. Spooner has become a revered figure to modern libertarians, especially in the South, where some revisionist historians have embraced his antislavery and anti-Lincoln views.


Rand excelled at the Raz and advanced to a more serious interview—conducted under a highway bridge—before being confirmed for membership. The brothers gave him his secret name: SpoonNoZe.

You can also find some columns Rand wrote in college for Baylor's newspaper that have a radically libertarian bent, if you didn't know better you would think his college writings were from a libertarian blogger on Liberty.me. As I said before, if you think about it, it's not really surprising coming from Ron Paul's own son.

An excerpt from the article I linked to above mentions this as well.

In 1981, Rand entered Baylor University, a Baptist school in Waco, four hours from home. He immediately set himself apart. He contributed regularly to the school newspaper, the Lariat, drawing on Ayn Rand, Hayek, and Mises’s disciple Murray Rothbard.

Another interesting quote from the article relating to his college newspaper writings.


Meanwhile, Rand had adopted his father’s questioning of the government’s efforts to alleviate discrimination. In March of 1982, he responded to a Lariat op-ed writer who favored “some form of government action” to insure that A. T. & T. didn’t lose its proportion of female employees after the company’s breakup. The editorial, Rand wrote, “unfortunately typifies the reasoning behind every piece of anti-discrimination legislation passed over the past few decades. The mentality behind such legislation ignores one of the basic, inalienable rights of man—the right to discriminate.”

Rand had developed a signature style: he opened with a provocative statement to jar the casual reader, and then calmly laid out his argument. “Discrimination has become a dirty word in our society,” he wrote. “However, Webster defines discrimination as ‘the ability to perceive distinctions; perception; discernment.’ Now then, don’t we all discriminate? Don’t we discriminate in the selection of friends, mates, employees, students? Discrimination thus implies the recognition of individual talents, the discernment of inequality between individuals.” While “eliminating racial and sexual prejudice” had “noble aspiration,” such laws “necessarily utilize the ignoble means of coercive force.”

[T.hill]

Also, I read somewhere that Rand read Human Action when he was only 16 years old. But I can't remember where I read that anymore.

[Vanguard101]

In what sense does Rand lack knowledge about the fed? The history of the fed, how the fed technically operates day-to-day, or the economic implications of the fed's continual credit expansion and fractional reserve banking?

There are videos of him that exist talking about economics, especially before he became a senator when he was campaigning for his father. I don't really understand how some people don't think Rand has a good grasp of libertarian theory or Austrian economics. For one his father is Ron Paul, that by itself should give you some reasonable expectation that he has some understanding of libertarian moral theories and Austrian economics, secondly there's also many in-depth articles available that you can read exploring his life and beliefs.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/10/06/revenge-rand-paul







You can also find some columns Rand wrote in college for Baylor's newspaper that have a radically libertarian bent, if you didn't know better you would think his college writings were from a libertarian blogger on Liberty.me. As I said before, if you think about it, it's not really surprising coming from Ron Paul's own son.

An excerpt from the article I linked to above mentions this as well.


Another interesting quote from the article relating to his college newspaper writings.

Rand has trouble understanding basic accounting. He has basic knowledge of how competing currencies would work. Lol he can't explain the Fed in detail. If someone were to ask him serious questions, he wouldn't be able to fully answer them. I've already read that article. It means nothing since current Rand is nothing compared to what he was or possibly was in the past

[T.hill]

Rand has trouble understanding basic accounting. He has basic knowledge of how competing currencies would work. Lol he can't explain the Fed in detail. If someone were to ask him serious questions, he wouldn't be able to fully answer them. I've already read that article. It means nothing since current Rand is nothing compared to what he was or possibly was in the past

He can and has explained the fed in detail, if you remember correctly he spoke on the senate floor for 20 minutes last year in support of his 'audit the fed' bill. I don't really even know what you mean when you say he can't explain the fed in detail, in what sense? Why does he have trouble understanding basic accounting?

[SilentBull]

Rand has trouble understanding basic accounting. He has basic knowledge of how competing currencies would work. Lol he can't explain the Fed in detail. If someone were to ask him serious questions, he wouldn't be able to fully answer them. I've already read that article. It means nothing since current Rand is nothing compared to what he was or possibly was in the past

What do you base this on?

[Vanguard101]

He can and has explained the fed in detail, if you remember correctly he spoke on the senate floor for 20 minutes last year in support of his 'audit the fed' bill. I don't really even know what you mean when you say he can't explain the fed in detail, in what sense? Why does he have trouble understanding basic accounting?

Or someone assisted him in explaining what the fed does. His speech wasn't that great either. I don't know why he has trouble. I just have noticed it and he needs to improve.

[Jan2017]

Rand was an undergraduate at Baylor for three years before getting accepted to Duke University Medical School -
probably has better capacity to pick up on information as any of the other GOP contenders.

But yes, I think there has to be some saving of these ideas for debate season - a month away.

[nikcers]

If Rand Paul thinks that you cant artificially inflate markets with cheap credit without devaluing capital or in this case a natural bust cycle then you should argue why you think that's wrong. Rand Paul has every authority to comment on our fiscal and monetary policy because he is a senator. He also has every expectation to if he running to be POTUS. What would you like him to say instead?

[Krugminator2]

If Rand Paul thinks that you cant artificially inflate markets with cheap credit without devaluing capital or in this case a natural bust cycle then you should argue why you think that's wrong. Rand Paul has every authority to comment on our fiscal and monetary policy because he is a senator. He also has every expectation to if he running to be POTUS. What would you like him to say instead?

The counterargument would be the rational expectations arguments. Markets are forward looking. People adjust their behavior and position themselves for what they think should happen therefore ensuring that it won't happen. Because if it were going to happen it would have already happened because people would have positioned themselves for it.

I have no idea what idea is closer to reality. I do know that I have no reason to believe that Rand has some market predicting prowess. He should leave that tarot card readers.

[nikcers]

The counterargument would be the rational expectations arguments. Markets are forward looking. People adjust their behavior and position themselves for what they think should happen therefore ensuring that it won't happen. Because if it were going to happen it would have already happened because people would have positioned themselves for it.

I have no idea what idea is closer to reality. I do know that I have no reason to believe that Rand has some market predicting prowess. He should leave that tarot card readers.

Its not tarot reading, nor gamblers fallacy. How can you say it hasn't happened when it happened already in 2008?

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.jpg?hires=1&type=image/jpeg&chart_type=line&recession_bars=on&log_scales=&bgcolor=%23e1e9f0&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&fo=verdana&ts=12&tts=12&txtcolor=%23444444&show_legend=yes&show_axis_titles=yes&drp=0&cosd=2007-09-01&coed=2015-01-01&height=350&stacking=&range=Custom&mode=fred&id=HOANBS&transformation=lin&nd=&ost=-99999&oet=99999&lsv=&lev=&scale=left&line_color=%234572a7&line_style=solid&lw=2&mark_type=none&mw=2&mma=0&fml=a&fgst=lin&fgsnd=2007-12-01&fq=Quarterly&fam=avg&vintage_date=&revision_date=&width=670

[Krugminator2]

Its not tarot reading, nor gamblers fallacy. How can you say it hasn't happened when it happened already in 2008?



It is not easy to predict in a systematic way is the point. It doesn't mean that shocks don't happen periodically. Look at how the people who became celebrities from predicting 2008 crisis have done since. This is something politicians should steer clear from.

[nikcers]

It is not easy to predict in a systematic way is the point. It doesn't mean that shocks don't happen periodically. Look at how the people who became celebrities from predicting 2008 crisis have done since. This is something politicians should steer clear from.

I know lots of people that lost their life savings and some will be upside down on their house until the day they die because of the shit Ron Paul predicted. Nevada got fucked by the housing collapse and that's what got people out to vote for Ron Paul. Shocks happen and he needs to tell people why they happen, its the business cycle. I don't want a politician that is going to tell me the unemployment numbers are down-piss on me and tell me its raining. Rand is the type of politician that tells you the emperor has no clothes, Rand is a Ron Paul republican who can explain the business cycle to you any time of the day.

[nikcers]

Panic selling wiped more than £2tn off the value of Chinese-listed companies and traders signalled the rout would extend into next week.
(http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/03/chinas-stock-market-slump-continues)

[Warlord]

uh oh. thanks nikcers.

[Krugminator2]

I know lots of people that lost their life savings and some will be upside down on their house until the day they die because of the shit Ron Paul predicted. Nevada got fucked by the housing collapse and that's what got people out to vote for Ron Paul. Shocks happen and he needs to tell people why they happen, its the business cycle. I don't want a politician that is going to tell me the unemployment numbers are down-piss on me and tell me its raining. Rand is the type of politician that tells you the emperor has no clothes, Rand is a Ron Paul republican who can explain the business cycle to you any time of the day.

I suspect there many more people who listened to the doomsday advice and have not taken enough risk. Not taking risk is the much bigger threat to most people.

Tell me if this sounds familiar on page 139-140 from December 1, 1982. https://books.google.com/books?id=enCrGO0ojAEC&pg=PA139&lpg=PA139&dq=ron+paul++1982+stock+market&source=bl&ots=0QRExjFMU7&sig=KWxdVB0MiD_mV-ehZcFrPoWOXQ0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=rPOXVfuGJYn5-AG784GwCA&ved=0CCMQ6AEwADgU#v=onepage&q=ron%20paul%20%201982%20stock%20market&f=false

"It guarantees long run economic stagnation." "High unemployment, soaring interest rates, runaway inflation" Right at the very start of the biggest bull market and one of the greatest surges in prosperity in world history. And I like the "Until we admit the truth...."

[nikcers]

Panic selling wiped more than £2tn off the value of Chinese-listed companies and traders signalled the rout would extend into next week. (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/03/chinas-stock-market-slump-continues)

China's 'Black Monday' as panic grips global financial markets – live http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/aug/24/global-stocks-sell-off-deepens-as-panic-grips-markets-live

Rajiv Biswas, the chief Asia economist for IHS Global Insight, said Black Monday
was one of the strongest signals yet that Beijing was not doing enough to tackle the crisis.
The private money is all trying to get out of the market and what is holding up the market is only the government intervention.

It’s been piecemeal efforts through the course of the year with several
small cuts in interest rates, some fiscal stimulus measures scattered
around in recent months.

But you haven’t seen any decisive action and there is no sense of determination coming out of policy makers that they want to turn the economy around.