Two recent state polls (MI and KY)

[Foreigner]

Michigan:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_63015.pdf

Walker: 15%
Carson: 14%
Trump: 14%
Bush: 14%
Rubio: 9%
Huckabee: 8%
Christie: 5%
Cruz: 5%
Paul: 4% (BAD!)
Fiorina: 3%
Kasich: 3%
Santorum: 2%
Perry: 1%
Graham: 1%
Pataki: 0%
Jindal: 0%
Someone else: 2%

#2nd Choice:
Bush: 12%
Walker: 11%
Rubio: 9%
Paul: 8% (Better!)
Huckabee: 7%
Fiorina: 6%
Carson: 6%
Trump: 6%
Cruz: 5%
Christie: 3%
Jindal: 3%
Kasich: 3%
Santorum: 3%
Perry: 1%
Graham: 1%
Pataki: 0%
Undecided: 17%

Against Clinton:
Paul: 42 - 45 (-3) (Excellent!, within the margin of error in a blue state)
Walker: 42 - 46 (-4)
Huckabee: 42 - 47 (-5)
Rubio: 40 - 46 (-6)
Christie: 38 - 44 (-6)
Carson: 41 - 49 (-8)
Fiorina: 38 - 46 (-8)
Bush: 38 - 47 (-9)
Cruz: 39 - 49 (-10)
Trump: 39 - 49 (-10)

#Takeaways about Rand's numbers:
- Wins the White vote by the largest margin
- Does just average with African-Americans (Rubio does the best)
- Does best among republicans among "Others". (Which in MI means Arab-Americans)
- Does the best among voters under 45 by huge margin in the general
- Is unpopular among seniors in favorability
- Seen favorably by backers of: Cruz, Graham, Santorum, Walker, Trump, Huckabee, Fiorina, Perry, Bush (in order of % who like Rand)
- Disliked the most by backers of: Christie, Rubio, Kasich, Carson
- Rand is the second choice of 31% of Cruz backers, 17% (Huckabee), 13% (Trump), 12% (Graham), 11% (Carson)
- 34% of Rand backers have Bush as their second choice. No one else comes close! This is confirmed by that most of Rand's base in this poll is moderates. Most of his 2nd choice people are conservatives, though.



#Kentucky:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_KY_62415.pdf

Paul: 19%
Bush: 13%
Trump: 12%
Walker: 11%
Rubio: 10%
Huckabee: 10%
Carson: 7%
Cruz: 4%
Fiorina: 4%
Someone else: 9%

#2nd Choice:
Paul: 13%
Bush: 12%
Carson: 11%
Trump: 10%
Rubio: 10%
Walker: 9%
Cruz: 8%
Huckabee: 7%
Fiorina: 3%
Someone else: 19%

#Against Clinton:
Paul: 50 - 40 (+10)
Huckabee: 49 - 39 (+10)
Bush: 48 - 40 (+8)
Carson: 49 - 40 (+6)
Cruz: 48 - 42 (+6)
Walker: 46 - 41 (+5)
Rubio: 46 - 41 (+5)
Fiorina: 45 - 40 (+5)
Trump: 42 - 45 (-3)

#Rand does well in his home state, but does not dominate. His favorability/job aproval numbers are very good among almost all demographics. He pulls 30% of under 45's, but only 11% of +65's, which is 4th.

So the good news is that he is the most electable candidate in both the polls, confirming this national trend. Both surveys did not allow undecideds, which could be most pople at this point in the race. Difficult to say how that impacts results.

[r3volution 3.0]

Very nice analysis.


Disliked the most by backers of: Christie, Rubio, Kasich, Carson

Seen favorably by backers of: Cruz, Graham, Santorum, Walker, Trump, Huckabee, Fiorina, Perry, Bush (in order of % who like Rand)

Whaa?

How can Graham supporters like Rand more than Carson supporters do?

[Foreigner]

Very nice analysis.

Whaa?

How can Graham supporters like Rand more than Carson supporters do?

Thanks!

There are very few Graham supporters, and wierd things can happen with small samples. (Or, Rand is the only guy who ever mentions Graham, so they like him for spreading his name ID. :D) About Carson, his supporters are evangelicals. Most of them dislike Rand, but a decent chunk of the minority who likes him have Rand as their 2nd choice candidate. I dunno if it impacts anything that Michigan is Carson's home state.

The other wierd thing about the MI poll was that Cruz supporters loved Rand, but Rand supporters hated Cruz.

[RabbitMan]

How bizarre. Good to see the national trend of "most electable" confirmed, despite the recent national polls that say otherwise.

[cindy25]

why is Carson so popular? seems like a nice guy, but no money or organization. there are few black Republicans so its not that.

[cat_woman]

why is Carson so popular? seems like a nice guy, but no money or organization. there are few black Republicans so its not that.

I don't get it either. How many people have even heard of him? I think he was a Fox contributor, but if you don't watch Fox, how else does anyone know about him?

I really don't understand his appeal.

[Jeremy]

Very nice analysis.



Whaa?

How can Graham supporters like Rand more than Carson supporters do?

Not all voters are like us and actually know who the candidates are, what they stand for, etc.

[Jeremy]

why is Carson so popular? seems like a nice guy, but no money or organization. there are few black Republicans so its not that.

He has a great life story and has been pretty popular in conservative circles for the last 2 years.

[EBounding]

I don't get it either. How many people have even heard of him? I think he was a Fox contributor, but if you don't watch Fox, how else does anyone know about him?

I really don't understand his appeal.

He's well known with Christians. I remember doing a report on him for black history month in 4th grade (~20 Years ago).

[rich34]

I think Rand is under polling at the moment for whatever reason.. But as the election gets closer I think this will back fire on them because pollsters will start reporting more accurate/true numbers just like they had to with Ron as he started rising in 2012 near the start of the primary season. I'm just of the opinion that Ron had those strong numbers all along but was held down intentionally to try and dampen support. I truly feel the same is happening with Rand, but with Rand being more electable and likely having a more broad coalition of support when the pollsters start reporting real numbers the perception of a surge in support might not be something they can contain like they did Ron. That's my hope anyway.

[kpitcher]

Not all voters are like us and actually know who the candidates are, what they stand for, etc.
I really hope that's the explanation for Trump's numbers.