Poll Watch: Morning Consult, Iowa and New Hampshire Republican Primary (2nd and 3rd)

[carlton]

New Hampshire
Bush – 14%
Walker – 10%
Paul – 9%
Trump – 8%
Rubio – 8%
Christie – 7%
Carson – 6%
Huckabee – 6%
Fiorina – 5%
Cruz – 4%
Other/No opinion – 23%
Poll conducted May 31 – June 8, 2015, online and by phone. Sample: 349 registered Republicans. The data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered New Hampshire primary voters based on age, race/ethnicity and gender. Margin of error +/- 5.2%.

Iowa
Walker – 18%
Bush – 10%
Huckabee – 10%
Paul – 10%
Rubio – 7%
Christie – 6%
Carson – 5%
Trump – 5%
Cruz – 4%
Fiorina – 2%
Other/no opinion – 24%
Poll conducted May 31 – June 8, 2015, online and by phone. Sample: 265 registered Republicans. The data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered Iowa caucus voters based on age, race/ethnicity and gender. Margin of error +/- 6%..


Cmon people, Rand needs our enthusiasm and support to sweep the first two states. It's been a graveyard here this last week. There is only one good (not just acceptable) candidate running, and no his name ain't Trump. So let's get with it.

[eleganz]

lol #CruzToLose

[carlton]

lol #CruzToLose

He's fading fast, it would be hilarioussly sad if he missed the first debate.

[luctor-et-emergo]

Cmon people, Rand needs our enthusiasm and support to sweep the first two states. It's been a graveyard here this last week. There is only one good (not just acceptable) candidate running, and no his name ain't Trump. So let's get with it.

Well these are rather small polls..


Margin of error +/- 5.2%.

Margin of error +/- 6%

[carlton]

Well these are rather small polls..

Yes but they do align with larger polls. I think if Rand is polling a close second or third in both these contests, organization and enthusiasm will make up for the gap and give him two wins.

[CaptUSA]

He's fading fast, it would be hilarioussly sad if he missed the first debate.

Remember, we need to make sure Rand picks up his supporters. It wouldn't be "hilariouss" if we piss them off.

[adelina]

Independents were not included in the NH poll. I think if they were, Rand would be ahead of Walker in that poll.

[FriedChicken]

Independents were not included in the NH poll. I think if they were, Rand would be ahead of Walker in that poll.

I don't know, maybe, but I feel pretty confident in saying that the 20+% who haven't decided yet are going to go with an establishment front runner. Its the same state that chose McCain and Romney overwhelmingly and cried themselves to sleep when Romney said he wouldn't run again.

[FriedChicken]

I was hoping Rand would get more of Cruz's support when he started to drop off- But as long as he is an option to them it might still time out well by caucus time. Soft support like that is tricky.
I guess we don't want to win them too early because their support seems to have a short shelf life.

[Mr.NoSmile]

Cmon people, Rand needs our enthusiasm and support to sweep the first two states. It's been a graveyard here this last week. There is only one good (not just acceptable) candidate running, and no his name ain't Trump. So let's get with it.

Okay, unless everyone here is in the vicinity of those polled for these results, I don't see what calling us out specifically accomplishes. Furthermore, a graveyard? Hell, people have more important things to do and get with.

[RabbitMan]

Cmon people, Rand needs our enthusiasm and support to sweep the first two states. It's been a graveyard here this last week. There is only one good (not just acceptable) candidate running, and no his name ain't Trump. So let's get with it.

Yeah...we can give a bit of money but right now the ball is in the campaign's court. Until the debates when he starts building enthusiasm, there isn't a whole lot to do, and twiddling our thumbs on the RPF is fun but not helpful to them.

[opinionatedfool]

Maybe there was a reason they weren't included. NH has a third Indy

[DisneyFan]

I expect Cruz's numbers to go back up a bit once the anger over his trade vote cools off.

[rich34]

I expect Cruz's numbers to go back up a bit once the anger over his trade vote cools off.

With the field as saturated as it is I'm not so sure. Rand is at least in a very fortunate position aside from the other folks running in that his support I would have to believe is as solid as anyone out there running at this point. He just needs to keep adding to those numbers by picking up the soft support from other candidates when they fall off. Imo, this is a critical component that the mainstream media especially fox news is failing to mention, for obvious reasons.. Rand is solidly pulling at least 10% nationally as well as Iowa and NH. His base is not leaving him, he just needs to figure out how to win over the soft support that is currently going to other candidates.

That's why I suggested him and/or his campaign needs to start creating an aura of trust around him that even though many may not agree with all of his positions/policies you can at least take him at his word and believe that he's going to do what he says. Not to mention that most view politicians as untrustworthy anyway. If Rand's team can make a play, or claim to trust similar to how W did integrity and now Jeb making a claim to experience I think Rand would have an easier time picking up that soft support.

[Uriah]

lol #CruzToLose
I am actually surprised that Cruz is polling higher.


Remember, we need to make sure Rand picks up his supporters. It wouldn't be "hilariouss" if we piss them off.
Yes. Let's not bash the other candidates. Build relationships. Everything comes down to relationships. Say something you like about other candidates then say why you like Rand even more. There is much crossover appeal towards Rand from Cruz and Carson supporters. Let's build bridges and make it easy for them to join team Rand.

[RDM]

What the hell is going on in Iowa?

A new poll of likely Republican caucus goers again shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker leading the 16-member field of Republican candidates by six points. The poll was released on Thursday afternoon in Washington D.C. at a legislative staff briefing that included Senators Ernst and Grassley.

The IVR poll, produced similar results to the latest Iowa Poll conducted by the Des Moines Register, but it does show some movement in the middle of the pack. The biggest mover was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul who dropped five-points since the Register’s poll at the end of May. Paul’s drop may be a result of comments he made about Republicans being responsible for the creation of ISIS at the same time the poll was in the field.

Moving in the other direction in former Texas Governor Rick Perry. Perry polled at three percent in the Register’s poll, but in the Advantage Poll that was commissioned by the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association he polled at 7 percent, which was good enough for sixth place in the poll. Perry also may have benefited for the fact that his campaign launched shortly before the poll was in the field.

Below is the polling memo and the full results of the poll.

The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) recently commissioned Advantage, Inc. of Alexandria, Virginia to conduct an automated telephone survey of likely Republican caucus attendees. A sample of confirmed GOP voters was screened for likely participation in the upcoming Republican presidential caucus. N=1,235 interviews were successfully completed in Iowa. The margin of error for a random sample of this size is plus/minus 2.8% at a 95% confidence level. This information was gathered as interviewees responded via a telephone dial pad. Interviews were conducted June 8-10 throughout Iowa, the week after Senator Joni Ernst widely covered “Roast and Ride” event featuring many of the potential candidates.

It is also important to note that to the best of our knowledge, this is by far the largest sample of likely Republican caucus-goers in a public poll this year. The poll also allowed the voters to choose from all 16 commonly mentioned candidates and potential candidates vying for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party. Of other public polls, only the recent Des Moines Register “Iowa Poll” also included all 16 potential candidates.

While not all these candidates have announced their intention of seeking the office, all names were treated equally. After screening for likely caucus participation, interviewees were asked:

“Still thinking about the Republican caucuses — If the Republican Presidential caucuses were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which of the following candidates would you probably vote?” – (NAMES READ & RANDOMIZED)

Scott Walker 19%
Ben Carson 13%
Jeb Bush 11%
Marco Rubio 9%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Rick Perry 7%
Ted Cruz 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Chris Christie 3%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Lindsay Graham 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
John Kasich 2%
George Pataki 1%

[FSP-Rebel]

Good posts but I wish you would all provide links so I can spread this news elsewhere.

[Uriah]

What the hell is going on in Iowa?

A new poll of likely Republican caucus goers again shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker leading the 16-member field of Republican candidates by six points. The poll was released on Thursday afternoon in Washington D.C. at a legislative staff briefing that included Senators Ernst and Grassley.

The IVR poll, produced similar results to the latest Iowa Poll conducted by the Des Moines Register, but it does show some movement in the middle of the pack. The biggest mover was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul who dropped five-points since the Register’s poll at the end of May. Paul’s drop may be a result of comments he made about Republicans being responsible for the creation of ISIS at the same time the poll was in the field.

Moving in the other direction in former Texas Governor Rick Perry. Perry polled at three percent in the Register’s poll, but in the Advantage Poll that was commissioned by the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association he polled at 7 percent, which was good enough for sixth place in the poll. Perry also may have benefited for the fact that his campaign launched shortly before the poll was in the field.

Below is the polling memo and the full results of the poll.

The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) recently commissioned Advantage, Inc. of Alexandria, Virginia to conduct an automated telephone survey of likely Republican caucus attendees. A sample of confirmed GOP voters was screened for likely participation in the upcoming Republican presidential caucus. N=1,235 interviews were successfully completed in Iowa. The margin of error for a random sample of this size is plus/minus 2.8% at a 95% confidence level. This information was gathered as interviewees responded via a telephone dial pad. Interviews were conducted June 8-10 throughout Iowa, the week after Senator Joni Ernst widely covered “Roast and Ride” event featuring many of the potential candidates.

It is also important to note that to the best of our knowledge, this is by far the largest sample of likely Republican caucus-goers in a public poll this year. The poll also allowed the voters to choose from all 16 commonly mentioned candidates and potential candidates vying for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party. Of other public polls, only the recent Des Moines Register “Iowa Poll” also included all 16 potential candidates.

While not all these candidates have announced their intention of seeking the office, all names were treated equally. After screening for likely caucus participation, interviewees were asked:

“Still thinking about the Republican caucuses — If the Republican Presidential caucuses were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which of the following candidates would you probably vote?” – (NAMES READ & RANDOMIZED)

Scott Walker 19%
Ben Carson 13%
Jeb Bush 11%
Marco Rubio 9%
Mike Huckabee 8%
Rick Perry 7%
Ted Cruz 6%
Rand Paul 5%
Chris Christie 3%
Carly Fiorina 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
Donald Trump 2%
Lindsay Graham 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
John Kasich 2%
George Pataki 1%

It's unclear if this poll included non-Republicans in their survey. It appears they did not. For comparative purposes 23% and 2% of the 2012 Iowa caucus participants were independents/other and Democrats according to entrance polling. Ron Paul captured 43% of the independent vote in the Iowa GOP caucus. That was almost half of his support. Assuming Rand generally can draw that same type of support from independents--which he has shown--his real numbers could be around 10%.

Also, the IRFA leadership does not view Rand favorably.

http://theiowarepublican.com/2015/walker-maintains-lead-in-latest-iowa-caucus-poll-rand-paul-and-rick-perry-big-movers/

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa/exit-polls

[timosman]

Remember, we need to make sure Rand picks up his supporters. It wouldn't be "hilariouss" if we piss them off.

Maybe we should stop talking about his eligibility ?