Des Moines Register poll; Paul in 2nd

[garyallen59]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/05/30/iowa-poll-scott-walker-seven-point-lead/28230505/


Paul bests the field in attracting moderate Republicans, independents who intend to attend the Republican caucuses (21 percent, all but double any other contender), and likely GOP caucusgoers who are under 45. Paul, who has said the GOP "can have people on both sides" of the same-sex marriage issue, has inherited many of the liberty movement conservatives who supported his father, then-Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, in his Iowa caucus races in 2008 and 2012.

But Rand Paul has seen his favorability rating in the poll drop by 9 percentage points since January, more than for any other GOP contender.

"Paul is slightly worse off, which tells me that his efforts to woo his father's supporters have hurt him with typical GOP voters," said Katie Packer, a Washington, D.C.-based GOP strategist who worked for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign.

Walker 17
Paul 10
Carson 10
Bush 9
Huckabee 9
Rubio 6
Santorum 6
Cruz 5
Trump 4
Christie 4
Perry 3
Kasich 2
Fiorina 2
Jindal 1
Graham 1

[Uriah]

Some positives for Rand along with some negatives. Really curious why his favorable dropped by 9 points.

[Brett85]

Some positives for Rand along with some negatives. Really curious why his favorable dropped by 9 points.

I guess because he doesn't support that "Christian" idea of killing innocent people in foreign countries.

[helenpaul]

I can see the FOX news headline now. "Rubio surges in Iowa"

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

I think Rand needs to get off of national security/War on Terror, onto domestic issues where he really scores with the Republican base. Fixing the economy, addressing the debt and deficit, cutting taxes and shrinking government should be his focus. Deflect any attempts by his opponents to go back to the "isolationist" mantra.

[afwjam]

End the Fed Rand!

[TaftFan]

It should be noted that DMR polls are almost always wrong.

[Sola_Fide]

I predict that Rand won't win the straw poll. He has alienated himself from evangelicals.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Walker 17
Paul 10
Carson 10
Bush 9
Huckabee 9
Rubio 6
Santorum 6
Cruz 5
Trump 4
Christie 4
Perry 3
Kasich 2
Fiorina 2
Jindal 1
Graham 1

Blah, blah, blah, lame over-analysis that's seen in ever presidential race.

What I am most bemused by are Cruz's numbers. Do all his supporters post on Free Republic and HotAir.com? How is this man consistently in the single digits, with all the Internet comments on those sites? Reminds me of Bill Johnson in 2010.

[Inkblots]

I think Rand needs to get off of national security/War on Terror, onto domestic issues where he really scores with the Republican base. Fixing the economy, addressing the debt and deficit, cutting taxes and shrinking government should be his focus. Deflect any attempts by his opponents to go back to the "isolationist" mantra.

Honestly, I think now is the best time for him to hit foreign policy and surveillance issues hard. He can lock in all the "libertarianish" voters who are ever going to support him while it's still early going. This should end all the grumbling and doubts about him being a sell-out among those legacy Ron Paul supporters who would ever be willing to join in a serious campaign. And after the PATRIOT Act drama ends in the next few weeks, he'll have 9 months to focus on issues that play better to the GOP base.

In short, lock in old friends early, and let the controversy become old news long before any low info voters start to tune in. Sound.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Honestly, I think now is the best time for him to hit foreign policy and surveillance issues hard. He can lock in all the "libertarianish" voters who are even going to supports him while it's still early going. This should end all the grumbling and doubts about him being a sell-out among all the legacy Ron Paul supporters who would ever be willing to join in a serious campaign. And after the PATRIOT Act drama ends in the next few weeks, he'll have 9 months to focus on issues that play better to the GOP base.How big is that contingent? I'd rather he lose those people, some of whom he may never win over, than continue to get beat up over foreign policy.


In short, lock in old friends early, and let the controversy become old new long before any low info voters start to tune in. Sound.I think they are tuning in. GOP establishment is in full attack mode and Rand's numbers are taking a hit. I think he runs the risk of his image as an "isolationist" and "dangerous" solidifying, and not being able to come back from it.

[opinionatedfool]

I think Rand Paul knows what he is doing. He probably looked at the pack he is competing against and looked at polls and and made some moves based on his analysis. There are 15 or so others in the pack that sound exactly the same. There is a percentage in the republican party that agrees we shouldn't be involved in so many conflicts, etc. Say that's 30 percent, that's still more than splitting 70 percent 15 ways. I think he purposefully said some controversial things on foreign to create buzz. He is not going to be able to match fundraising of other candidates, but you can get 'free' marketing by doing things that get talked about.

Just need to get some wins in first states. With a huge pack and some differentiation that may be possible.

[CaptUSA]

How big is that contingent? I'd rather he lose those people, some of whom he may never win over, than continue to get beat up over foreign policy.
Conventional wisdom says foreign policy is Paul's weak point, but I think it's his secret weapon. Even Republicans are tired of all the war-mongering. And this issue separates Paul from the entire rest of the field. So, he ends up getting the lion's share of war-weary GOP primary voters and the warhawks are split among 45 other candidates.

Plus, it allows him to woo independent voters which attracts the GOP voters who just want to pick the guy who has the best chance of winning the general election.

Don't listen to the pundits. They've been wrong before.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

I think he purposefully said some controversial things on foreign to create buzz. He is not going to be able to match fundraising of other candidates, but you can get 'free' marketing by doing things that get talked about.I don't think "any press is good press" applies here.


Just need to get some wins in first states. With a huge pack and some differentiation that may be possible.Rand's favorability rating just dropped 9 points in Iowa. Walker is at the top of the heap, and Iowa voters are getting comfortable with the idea of him as the nominee. Meanwhile, Rand is getting pummeled in this battle with the hawks.

[Dianne]

For the life of me, I have no clue why Walker is in first place. I don't know chit about the guy, other than the recall fiasco of a few years ago. And he looks just like the Daddy in the original Texas Chainsaw Massacre movie .... "Podunk" is the first description of Walker that comes to mind. Something really fishy about his rise in the polls.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Conventional wisdom says foreign policy is Paul's weak point, but I think it's his secret weapon. Even Republicans are tired of all the war-mongering. And this issue separates Paul from the entire rest of the field. So, he ends up getting the lion's share of war-weary GOP primary voters and the warhawks are split among 45 other candidates.I think he always had those people. IMO, they are still a solid minority among Republicans. Most are buying into the ISIS fear-mongering.


Plus, it allows him to woo independent voters which attracts the GOP voters who just want to pick the guy who has the best chance of winning the general election.I don't rely on independents. They are just as likely to stay home as vote on a cold January day, and they sure don't donate or volunteer.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

For the life of me, I have no clue why Walker is in first place. I don't know chit about the guy, other than the recall fiasco of a few years ago. And he looks just like the Daddy in the original Texas Chainsaw Massacre movie .... "Podunk" is the first description of Walker that comes to mind. Something really fishy about his rise in the polls.1. He's a governor.
2. He has fought rabid unions in Wisconsin.
3. He's shown the ability to whether recalls/win elections in a liberal state (thus, the thinking is, has a good chance of winning in the general).
4. He gets good press and hasn't pissed off anybody yet.

Those aren't good reasons, but they work for the typical Republican voter.

[GunnyFreedom]

How big is that contingent? I'd rather he lose those people, some of whom he may never win over, than continue to get beat up over foreign policy.


I'll WAG that the radical "Love Ron Hate Rand" nutters are about 20-25% of the 5-7% average Ron got in the last primary. So anywhere between 1-1.75%.

[GunnyFreedom]

I don't think "any press is good press" applies here.

Rand's favorability rating just dropped 9 points in Iowa. Walker is at the top of the heap, and Iowa voters are getting comfortable with the idea of him as the nominee. Meanwhile, Rand is getting pummeled in this battle with the hawks.

If I'm honest, if we lose this battle based on 'not being hawkish enough' I'm actually okay with that. Not that I want it to happen, of course, and I will do everything in my power to deliver a Rand win, but people who claim to be Christians who are just loony-toons about killing brown people need to have space to earn their just deserts.

Don't get me wrong, I still get foaming mad at these dingbats who whine that he's not strong enough on murdering random foreigners, but if, in the end, this is the policy that does us in then I will take it as a sign that God has decided these psychopaths need punished, which to some degree will become its own reward.

Somehow envisioning Karl Rove receiving that bit of divine justice is more comforting than terrifying, even if I have to be in the midst of the whirlwind when it happens.

[RonPaul4Prez2012]

Scott Walker with 17 huh? WTF is wrong with Iowa? They must not have the internet in those corn fields.

[timosman]

Scott Walker with 17 huh? WTF is wrong with Iowa? They must not have the internet in those corn fields.

The problem is the campaign does not know how the internet works. How is this possible not to win Iowa if you are really organized ? I do not want to hear BS excuses.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

If I'm honest, if we lose this battle based on 'not being hawkish enough' I'm actually okay with that. Not that I want it to happen, of course, and I will do everything in my power to deliver a Rand win, but people who claim to be Christians who are just loony-toons about killing brown people need to have space to earn their just deserts.

Don't get me wrong, I still get foaming mad at these dingbats who whine that he's not strong enough on murdering random foreigners, but if, in the end, this is the policy that does us in then I will take it as a sign that God has decided these psychopaths need punished, which to some degree will become its own reward.

Somehow envisioning Karl Rove receiving that bit of divine justice is more comforting than terrifying, even if I have to be in the midst of the whirlwind when it happens.Rand shouldn't do a 180 and start pandering to those people, just move on to issues that are better for him. He has put his marker down on foreign policy and national security. Primary voters know where he stands on those. No need to keep harping on it and continue falling in the polls. His opponents would love nothing more than to keep him trapped in defending this ground.

[rich34]

Honestly, I think now is the best time for him to hit foreign policy and surveillance issues hard. He can lock in all the "libertarianish" voters who are ever going to support him while it's still early going. This should end all the grumbling and doubts about him being a sell-out among those legacy Ron Paul supporters who would ever be willing to join in a serious campaign. And after the PATRIOT Act drama ends in the next few weeks, he'll have 9 months to focus on issues that play better to the GOP base.

In short, lock in old friends early, and let the controversy become old news long before any low info voters start to tune in. Sound.

I agree totally. And not only that, but go ahead and get donations from these people while you can because once the strategy is switched up to a pro gun/domestic policy he'll be able to receive donations from that crowd as well. Rand is going to play this the best he can.

[Keith and stuff]

Paul is currently tied for 2nd in IA and 1st in NH. That isn't enough if he is 5th in SC and 6th nationally. He needs good teams in all 4 of the early states. The IA team should lead Paul to top 2 finishes in several Midwest states. The NH team should pull off a win or two in New England. The SC team should build up and do even better in NC and VA than it did in SC. The NV team should help with CA, CO and other states where Paul could take 1st or 2nd place.

We have a long way to go but this is encouraging.