GunnyFreedom
12-05-2007, 06:59 AM
I discovered the article below at Zogby.com
It makes an interesting read, but I want to point out a specific point made by the author. Apparently, in a "blind" poll (using the candidates resume and history without mentioning their names) amongst only registered Republican likely primary voters, Guiliani leads the pack with 34%, and Ron Paul coming in last with with 13%.
BUT, amongst all voters regardless of stripe or likelihood, Ron Paul's bio is on top with 33%, Guiliani at 15% and Fred Thompson last at 13%.
Now, I do not place much stock in polls. Really I don't. What this poll DOES do, is provide ammunition for the answer to the question "we need Guiliani because only he can defeat Clinton." Clearly, as we can see according to Zogby, Ron Paul has an order or magnitude more support in the general, than he does in the primary.
So *which* candidate will be more competitive against the Democrats? Clearly, that is Ron Paul. At least, according to Zogby!
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1391
Released: November 20, 2007
Zogby Poll: Giuliani Leads Among Republicans in Latest Blind Bio Survey
Survey pits resumes of former New York mayor against those of Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, long the favorite in nationwide samples of likely Republican voters in the 2008 race for the party's presidential nomination, has the strongest resume of four top contenders, a new Zogby International survey shows.
The telephone survey, known as a “blind bio” poll because likely voters are given details of the candidates’ resumes without their names attached, shows Giuliani wins 34% support, compared to 22% each for Thompson and Romney. Ron Paul, who has surged recently in polls and has a significant online following, came in last with 13% support, while 9% said they were undecided on the question.
Only those four candidates were included in the question, which was commissioned by Jones Productions, a media company based in Austin, Texas. The survey included 389 likely Republican primary or caucus voters and was conducted Nov. 14–17, 2007. It carries a margin of error of +/– 5.1 percentage points.
The blind bio question was also posed to a larger pool of 1,009 likely voters nationwide, including Democrats and independents, and Paul was the big winner among that universe of voters, winning 33%, compared to 19% for Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 13% for Thompson.
The results of the of the likely Republican primary voters can be found here:
http://www.zogby.com/x-Zogby Special Jones Productions 11-20-2007.pdf
For a complete methodological statement, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1235
(11/20/2007)
It makes an interesting read, but I want to point out a specific point made by the author. Apparently, in a "blind" poll (using the candidates resume and history without mentioning their names) amongst only registered Republican likely primary voters, Guiliani leads the pack with 34%, and Ron Paul coming in last with with 13%.
BUT, amongst all voters regardless of stripe or likelihood, Ron Paul's bio is on top with 33%, Guiliani at 15% and Fred Thompson last at 13%.
Now, I do not place much stock in polls. Really I don't. What this poll DOES do, is provide ammunition for the answer to the question "we need Guiliani because only he can defeat Clinton." Clearly, as we can see according to Zogby, Ron Paul has an order or magnitude more support in the general, than he does in the primary.
So *which* candidate will be more competitive against the Democrats? Clearly, that is Ron Paul. At least, according to Zogby!
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1391
Released: November 20, 2007
Zogby Poll: Giuliani Leads Among Republicans in Latest Blind Bio Survey
Survey pits resumes of former New York mayor against those of Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, long the favorite in nationwide samples of likely Republican voters in the 2008 race for the party's presidential nomination, has the strongest resume of four top contenders, a new Zogby International survey shows.
The telephone survey, known as a “blind bio” poll because likely voters are given details of the candidates’ resumes without their names attached, shows Giuliani wins 34% support, compared to 22% each for Thompson and Romney. Ron Paul, who has surged recently in polls and has a significant online following, came in last with 13% support, while 9% said they were undecided on the question.
Only those four candidates were included in the question, which was commissioned by Jones Productions, a media company based in Austin, Texas. The survey included 389 likely Republican primary or caucus voters and was conducted Nov. 14–17, 2007. It carries a margin of error of +/– 5.1 percentage points.
The blind bio question was also posed to a larger pool of 1,009 likely voters nationwide, including Democrats and independents, and Paul was the big winner among that universe of voters, winning 33%, compared to 19% for Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 13% for Thompson.
The results of the of the likely Republican primary voters can be found here:
http://www.zogby.com/x-Zogby Special Jones Productions 11-20-2007.pdf
For a complete methodological statement, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1235
(11/20/2007)