First GOP Debate limited to top 10 - Will Rand qualify?

[mello]

Fox News will require candidates to be in the top 10 in a average of the five most recent national polls leading up to the debate. That means as many as eight candidates will be left out of the debate on August 6th. What are the chances that Rand's name will be left off of a couple of polls?

[CPUd]

Fox News will require candidates to be in the top 10 in a average of the five most recent national polls leading up to the debate. That means as many as eight candidates will be left out of the debate on August 6th. What are the chances that Rand's name will be left off of a couple of polls?

Unless he quits his campaign, Rand will be in the debates.

[Krugminator2]

What are the chances that Rand's name will be left off of a couple of polls?

0.00%

[newbitech]

What are the chances that Rand's name will be left off of a couple of polls?

I wish they would leave him off a few.

[William Tell]

Rand is in the top 4 going by averages right now, his numbers have been pretty consistent. He will be in the debates.

[Crashland]

Right now the 10th place person is polling at 2%. If Rand stays above 4% he's pretty much guaranteed to be in the top 10, and there is no way he will be averaging below that. And of course if he can manage 10% then it would be mathematically impossible for 10 candidates to be ahead of him.

[MarcusI]

Current Real Clear Politics Averages (4/16-5/12):

1. Bush 15.4%
2. Walker 13.2
Rubio 13.2
4. Paul 9.2
5. Huckabee 8.6
Cruz 8.6
7. Carson 7.8
8. Christie 5.4
9. Perry 2.4
10. Santorum 2.3
11. Kasich 2.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

[CPUd]

1 or 2 on that list will decline to run, then they will include Fiorina and maybe Jindal to show diversity.

I noticed on CNN yesterday, their debates will have 2 groups- the top 10 and everybody else.

[Uriah]

Turn this race into a tiered bracket.

[winwithliberty]

FiveThirtyEight covered this topic:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-gop-candidates-most-likely-to-be-left-out-of-the-debates/

[anaconda]

The potential blow back (by excluding Mr. Paul) to the establishment is so risky that they simply won't do it. The martyrdom syndrome is too unpredictable. Instead, they will allow him in the debates and manage damage control with limited talking time and horribly unfair questions. Which I'm confident he is anticipating with acumen and resolve. The main stream media will follow up with wild propaganda, like "Paul bombs in debate format." Or, "Paul takes left turn to fringe platform. Alienates voters." "Paul not ready for prime time." "Paul blames America first." "Rand Paul turns out to be his father's son." Etc., etc.

[erowe1]

10 is too many.

[dude58677]

The potential blow back (by excluding Mr. Paul) to the establishment is so risky that they simply won't do it. The martyrdom syndrome is too unpredictable. Instead, they will allow him in the debates and manage damage control with limited talking time and horribly unfair questions. Which I'm confident he is anticipating with acumen and resolve. The main stream media will follow up with wild propaganda, like "Paul bombs in debate format." Or, "Paul takes left turn to fringe platform. Alienates voters." "Paul not ready for prime time." "Paul blames America first." "Rand Paul turns out to be his father's son." Etc., etc.

Then again we know how he handled Trey Grayson in the Senate Debates.:)

[HarryBrowneLives]

I'm just hoping they cut out guys like Gramnesty and/or Santorum

[DonovanJames]

10 is too many.

It seems doable. It's not like any one person would be, say, limited to 48 seconds of talking time out of the entire event or anything.

[erowe1]

It seems doable. It's not like any one person would be, say, limited to 48 seconds of talking time out of the entire event or anything.

I'd rather them cut it down to 5.

It would be great if Rand made it in and Cruz didn't.

[erowe1]

Maybe Rand should challenge Jeb to a 1-on-1 debate.

[RonPaulGeorge&Ringo]

It's a good idea, but RNC has said they will disinvite any candidates who participate in nonsanctioned debates. The campaign has to play this carefully.

I'd like to see it though. I'd also like to see him debate some of the Dem candidates in open-primary states. Paul vs Sanders or Paul vs Webb could be good.


Maybe Rand should challenge Jeb to a 1-on-1 debate.

[mello]

My fear of what happened to Ron will probably be repeated, he will only be allowed to speak for around 5-6 per debate while the presumed frontrunner by the media gets triple the amount of talk time.

[CPUd]

With 10+ on the stage, no one is going to get any real time.

[mello]

With 10+ on the stage, no one is going to get any real time.

That's not true. Mitt Romney was getting around 15-25 minutes of talk time during the debates.

[Rudeman]

It's a good idea, but RNC has said they will disinvite any candidates who participate in nonsanctioned debates. The campaign has to play this carefully.

I'd like to see it though. I'd also like to see him debate some of the Dem candidates in open-primary states. Paul vs Sanders or Paul vs Webb could be good.

Those type of debates would just marginalize him and give them fringe ammo. The only Dem he should debate is Hillary and that won't happen unless both are the nominees.

[brandon]

Speaking of debates... when are they? I remember early May debates definitely in 2007, and I think there was one in 2011 as well.

[garyallen59]

Speaking of debates... when are they? I remember early May debates definitely in 2007, and I think there was one in 2011 as well.

I think the first one is in August this year.

[luctor-et-emergo]

With 10+ on the stage, no one is going to get any real time.

Depends on the format. If clapping is banned, this saves 50% airtime or so.
But yeah, if a debate lasts an actual 90 minutes, then it's only 9 minutes per candidate if shared equally.
I'd say nothing is wrong with that for a first debate, after that some should drop out though.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

I saw this on Twitter earlier:

@DanaPerino: "This is who would actually make that cut if [the first GOP] debate were happening tomorrow."

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFo_h4aVEAAbbw8.jpg

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Depends on the format. If clapping is banned, this saves 50% airtime or so.
But yeah, if a debate lasts an actual 90 minutes, then it's only 9 minutes per candidate if shared equally.
I'd say nothing is wrong with that for a first debate, after that some should drop out though.They should cut out the opening and closing statements, too.

[Jamesiv1]

I saw this on Twitter earlier:

@DanaPerino: "This is who would actually make that cut if [the first GOP] debate were happening tomorrow."

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFo_h4aVEAAbbw8.jpg
I stand with rick perry's glasses lol

[dude58677]

My fear of what happened to Ron will probably be repeated, he will only be allowed to speak for around 5-6 per debate while the presumed frontrunner by the media gets triple the amount of talk time.

Rand Paul is one tough fucker when it comes to debates esp what he did against Trey Grayson.

[cindy25]

Trump, should he run, would qualify. so would Kasich. they can't exclude Fiorina or Carson, so expect it to be more than ten.

[MarcusI]

Update 19-06-2015

RCP Average (difference to 21-05-2015):

1) Bush 10.8 (-4.4)
2) Walker 10.6 (-2.6)
3) Rubio 10.0 (-3.2)
4) Carson 9.4 (+1.6)
5) Huckabee 8.6 (0.0)
6) Paul 8.2 (-1.0)
7) Cruz 7.0 (-1.6)
8) Christie 4.6 (-0.8)
9) Trump 3.6 (+3.6)
10) Perry 3.2 (+0.8)

---

11) Santorum 2.2 (-0.1)
12) Fiorina 1.8 (?)
Kasich 1.8 (-0.2)
14) Graham 1.4 (?)
15) Jindal 1.0 (?)

So while Paul lost a tiny bit, the distance to the "front runners" is much smaller. So IMO it is 100% safe that he will be in the top debate, as his lead to Place no. 11 is very very huge. I guess the first 7 of this field wont have any probs to make the cut (if they do no extraordinary big blunder), while everyone from place 8 and under is in danger.

[Ronin Truth]

I'll SWAG just miss it by a close smidge, at 11. :rolleyes:

[69360]

Unless something unprecedented or truly off the wall happens, Rand will qualify for the debates. The unqualified candidates have little to no chance of increasing polling numbers.

[MarcusI]

Update 17-07-2015:



RCP Average (old rank) (difference in % to 19-06-2015):

1) (1) Bush 15.5 (+4.7)
2) (9) Trump 15.0 (+ 11.4)
3) (2) Walker 9.0 (-1.6)
4) (6) Paul 6.3 (-1.9)
5) (3) Rubio 6.0 (-4.0)
6) (4) Carson 5.8 (-3.6)
7) (5) Huckabee 5.8 (-2.8)
8) (7) Cruz 5.5 (-1.5)
9) (8) Christie 2.8 (-1.8)
10) (10) Perry 2.0 (-1.2)
tied (11) Santorum 2.0 (-0.2)
---
12) (12) Kasich 1.5 (-0.3)
13) (15) Jindal 1.3 (-0.3)
14) (12) Fiorina 1.0 (-0.8)
15) (14) Graham 0.3 (-1.1)

So while Paul lost some support, he moved up to Rank 4 because others lost even more. Difference to 10th is quite big still.

[Jan2017]

Trump, should he run, would qualify. so would Kasich. they can't exclude Fiorina or Carson, so expect it to be more than ten.

11 on stage if there is a tie for the precious last spot, as I understand it. Trump, Rand etc. will be there no doubt,
with Santorum, Kasich on the "bubble" as I see the polling.

[CPUd]

Some of these polls that are coming out this week and next are going to be the ones they use to decide. They won't say exactly which ones because they don't want campaigns gunning for specific polls.

[T.hill]

Rand Paul is one tough fucker when it comes to debates esp what he did against Trey Grayson.

Some may not know this, but during Ron's 1984 senate run Rand actually stepped in for Ron to debate then congressman Phil Gramm in the Republican primaries. Phil Gramm went on to win the Republican nomination and general election, serving 3 terms as a United States Senator. Rand was only 21 years old at the time.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/us/politics/06paul.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Some people greatly underestimate Rand's talents and intelligence, there's many ways and outlets to learn more about Rand, there have been dozens of in-depth articles and other pieces just like this dedicated to exploring Rand's life and influences. I think considering the vast amount of evidence that details his influences and intellectual framework, it would be unreasonable to believe that Rand doesn't have a thorough understanding of libertarian theory and Austrian economics. I think it also would be even more unreasonable to believe that he just simply forgot everything from his past, it's one thing to question his beliefs - which could be justified - but questioning his knowledge is something else completely.

[Warlord]

Rand is 4th in the RCP average? There's no way they can exclude him. Calm down folks.

[cindy25]

they will do anything to include Fiorina, Carson, and possibly Jindal. also, Kasich as the debate is in Ohio. I expect a change in the rules.

[EBounding]

they will do anything to include Fiorina, Carson, and possibly Jindal. also, Kasich as the debate is in Ohio. I expect a change in the rules.

I agree, which means there's no way they can exclude Rand.

[cindy25]

I agree, which means there's no way they can exclude Rand.

but the debate is only 2 hours, which is 1 hour 20 min when commercials are factored in. another 20-25 min for opening and closing statements, so that leaves only 4-5 questions. Bret Baier does not like Rand, although he does have a decent relationship with Kelly and Wallace . Trump and Bush will get the questions, and the others will only get to respond.

[Warlord]

but the debate is only 2 hours, which is 1 hour 20 min when commercials are factored in. another 20-25 min for opening and closing statements, so that leaves only 4-5 questions. Bret Baier does not like Rand, although he does have a decent relationship with Kelly and Wallace . Trump and Bush will get the questions, and the others will only get to respond.

Calm down. Rand will shine in the debates and will have time to make his points.

[EBounding]

I know they won't do this, but they should just get rid of the opening and closing statements. If I want to learn more about the candidate and their talking points, I can just visit their website.

[satchelmcqueen]

if rand gets cheated on time, there will be hell to pay for the moderators. just wait, itll be epic. they will create something they dont want.

[mello]

if rand gets cheated on time, there will be hell to pay for the moderators. just wait, itll be epic. they will create something they dont want.

If he does get cheated on time, he should post videos on his website thoroughly answering every question given during the debate.

Honestly, he should do that anyway.

[Uriah]

Some may not know this, but during Ron's 1984 senate run Rand actually stepped in for Ron to debate then congressman Phil Gramm in the Republican primaries. Phil Gramm went on to win the Republican nomination and general election, serving 3 terms as a United States Senator. Rand was only 21 years old at the time.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/us/politics/06paul.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0


Is there a video? I'd love to see it.

[cindy25]

Fox should extend it to 3 hours. or maybe make it a 2 night event (foreign policy on day 1, domestic on day 2)

also, why not a debate that includes candidates from both parties. in most states the primaries are open so Rand and Trump are competing with Hillary and Sanders.

[Dianne]

Current Real Clear Politics Averages (4/16-5/12):

1. Bush 15.4%
2. Walker 13.2
Rubio 13.2
4. Paul 9.2
5. Huckabee 8.6
Cruz 8.6
7. Carson 7.8
8. Christie 5.4
9. Perry 2.4
10. Santorum 2.3
11. Kasich 2.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Seeing Bush at no. 1 makes me want to jump off a cliff. There is no hope for the U.S. with this ignorant electorate.

[NativeOne]

"First GOP Debate limited to top 10 - Will Rand qualify? (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?475124-First-GOP-Debate-limited-to-top-10-Will-Rand-qualify)"

Bullcrap question you know that ..??

Rand Paul won the National CPAC .. He is the ONLY one that actually qualifies ..

[MarcusI]

Update 06 August 2015:



RCP Average (old rank) (difference to 17 July 2015):
1) (2) Trump 23.2 (+ 8.2)
2) (1) Bush 12.8 (-2.7)
3) (3) Walker 10.6 (+1.8)
4) (7) Huckabee 6.6 (+0.8)
tied (6) Carson 6.6 (+0.8)
6) (8) Cruz 6.2 (+0.7)
7) (5) Rubio 5.2 (-0.8)
8) (4) Paul 4.8 (-1.5)
9) (9) Christie 3.4 (+0.6)
10) (12) Kasich 2.8 (+1.3)

-----------

11) (10) Perry 2.0 (0.0)
12) (10) Santorum 1.4 (-0.6)
13) (13) Jindal 1.2 (-0.1)
14) (14) Fiorina 1.0 (0.0)
15) (15) Graham 0.4 (+0.1)

Polls included: Fox, Bloomberg, CBS, Monmouth, NBC/WSJ
-----------------------

Fox News on their rules:

"The five polls included in the average were conducted by the following organizations: Bloomberg, CBS News, Fox News, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University.

With respect to our criteria for inclusion …

• They are the five most recent national polls from non-partisan, nationally-recognized organizations using standard methodological techniques. Recency was determined by actual interview dates (not release date).
• They used live interviewers, random digit-dial sampling techniques and included both landlines and cellphones. (No online or automated (IVR) polls were used.)
• Their GOP primary vote question mirrored the ballot by reading all candidate names in random order and without honorifics.

So the Fox ranking looks as follows:

1) Donald Trump (23.4%)
2) Jeb Bush (12.0%)
3) Scott Walker (10.2%)
4) Mike Huckabee (6.6%)
5) Ben Carson (5.8%)
6) Ted Cruz (5.4%)
7) Marco Rubio (5.4%)
8) Rand Paul (4.8%)
9) Chris Christie (3.4%)
10) John Kasich (3.2%).

-----
11) Rick Perry (1.8%)
12) Rick Santorum (1.4%)
13) Bobby Jindal (1.4%)
14) Carly Fiorina (1.3%)
15) Lindsey Graham (0.7%)
16) George Pataki (0.6%)
17) Jim Gilmore (0.2%)

Explanation for the small difference to RCP average:

"The five polls included in the average were conducted by the following organizations: Bloomberg, CBS News, Fox News, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University.

[...]
• We did not include the highly-respected NBC/WSJ poll, which is the fifth most recent poll, only because it did not meet our criterion that the poll read the names of each Republican candidate in the vote question. We would note, however, even though their ballot question included Perry but did not name Kasich, the unaided "Kasich" response tied the aided "Perry" response. In short, their results are consistent with the results of the other polls in our review, and consistent with the resulting placement in the Fox News debate.
[...]
• [...] Given the over 2,400 interviews contained within the five polls, from a purely statistical perspective it is at least 90% likely that the tenth place Kasich is ahead the eleventh place Perry.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/04/how-fox-news-determined-who-qualified-for-prime-time-gop-debate/

Well, I think FOX News was quite fair and reasonable figuring out who is in the Top 10 in polls and who not. Of cause one can criticize the decision to let only 10 candidates in the top debate. Im sure Frothy and Perry are pretty pissed now :)

[cindy25]

Rand was lucky, and needs to move up. the next debate might have only 7 or 8 candidates. one of the undercard could easily move up. there could even be a new candidate or two.

[CPUd]

If he does get cheated on time, he should post videos on his website thoroughly answering every question given during the debate.

Honestly, he should do that anyway.

The campaign is supposed to be doing that tonight on twitter.