View Full Version : Gravis Iowa Poll Apr 13, 2015 - JEB:16,Walker:13,Rubio:12,Paul:9,Huck:8,Cruz:6
Taken on April 13 (day of Rubio announcement), but released yesterday or today.
http://i.imgur.com/YrDVhJw.png
Note they dropped Perry and Jindal, added Carly.
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/iowa-poll-bush-leads-crowded-gop-field-rice-beats-clinton-head-to-head-43-to-40/
rich34
04-22-2015, 07:13 PM
Sure makes you wonder just where Jeb is getting all his support from in a place like Iowa. We already know Ron was able to pull 20% in 2012 and was 3000 votes total from winning it all.. Just seems hard to believe Rand wouldnt be pulling in those same voters if not more. Judging how they did the polling methods last time I wouldnt be surprised if these werent push polls. Like last time we probably wont see the more accurate ones come out until a month outside the election. Thats when the polling companies have to get it right or else theyre outta business, oh unless youre CNN pushing the santorum surge lol...
r3volution 3.0
04-22-2015, 07:15 PM
The most noteworthy bit IMO is that Cruz isn't making any headway.
His whole campaign is tailored to an electorate like Iowa's, socon/teocon.
If he can't do well there, he's done.
r3volution 3.0
04-22-2015, 07:17 PM
santorum surge
gross
Crashland
04-22-2015, 07:21 PM
Sure makes you wonder just where Jeb is getting all his support from in a place like Iowa. We already know Ron was able to pull 20% in 2012 and was 3000 votes total from winning it all.. Just seems hard to believe Rand wouldnt be pulling in those same voters if not more. Judging how they did the polling methods last time I wouldnt be surprised if these werent push polls. Like last time we probably wont see the more accurate ones come out until a month outside the election. Thats when the polling companies have to get it right or else theyre outta business, oh unless youre CNN pushing the santorum surge lol...
In Iowa for the 2012 election cycle, Ron was consistently polling in the mid-single-digits and did not really break above 10% until August, then it was a slow and steady climb to 20% leading up to the caucus.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html
Rand is averaging about 10% in Iowa already, in a more crowded field, so he is starting ahead of where Ron was.
William Tell
04-22-2015, 07:23 PM
The most noteworthy bit IMO is that Cruz isn't making any headway.
His whole campaign is tailored to an electorate like Iowa's, socon/teocon.
If he can't do well there, he's done.
Cruz is counting on dominating the debates. 1 debate performance can make all the difference in Iowa.
eleganz
04-22-2015, 07:25 PM
Aside from including Rice
only two candidates did best against Hillary
Rand and Huck both got 43 with Hillary getting 44. What is it with Huck? I've noticed he did well against Hillary in other polls too, is it because he is a gov? Is it because of his show and presence on tv? Is it because he is a pastor? What gives...
philipped
04-22-2015, 07:26 PM
In Iowa for the 2012 election cycle, Ron was consistently polling in the mid-single-digits and did not really break above 10% until August, then it was a slow and steady climb to 20% leading up to the caucus.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html
Rand is averaging about 10% in Iowa already, in a more crowded field, so he is starting ahead of where Ron was.
And as Rand was double digits before Ron, he will only go further in the caucus poll before August as well.
FriedChicken
04-22-2015, 07:26 PM
Romney did good in Iowa too, but he was a lot more likable than Bush in my opinion.
we have time to improve, this far ahead Ron probably wasn't doing much better.
but yeah, conventional wisdom might lead you to think that rand could start where Ron left off.
Huckabee getting in the race might be a good thing- it would make Iowa a race for second and we can cut or losses and hope to win New Hampshire.
I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the election thus far. I can't wait to see the debates though.
that might be where rand makes his come back
Brett85
04-22-2015, 07:28 PM
It doesn't seem like Rand's Hillary attacks are working. I wish he would just cut that out and focus on the issues, focus on a positive message.
rich34
04-22-2015, 07:31 PM
In Iowa for the 2012 election cycle, Ron was consistently polling in the mid-single-digits and did not really break above 10% until August, then it was a slow and steady climb to 20% leading up to the caucus.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html
Rand is averaging about 10% in Iowa already, in a more crowded field, so he is starting ahead of where Ron was.
Exactly! Thats what i mean once it starts getting closer and these polling firms reputations are on the line I suspect the true numbers will begin to reveal themselves.
Of course Team Glen Beck and company are doing their best telling all his viewers along with his supposed experts that its Cruz among all the candidates drawing the most support among independents when in reality he draws the least support from that demographic. Beck talks shit about everyone else not reporting facts when he could simply post any of the polls that show its Rand dominating that category and is further backed up by Rand being the only republican beating Hillary in alot of these swing states. Rand just has to keep doing what he's doing.
eleganz
04-22-2015, 07:31 PM
It doesn't seem like Rand's Hillary attacks are working. I wish he would just cut that out and focus on the issues, focus on a positive message.
Maybe the strategy is to do it until the book comes out and thats when everybody will start coming to Rand since he has been the one talking about it all this time.
At least he is getting TV time out of all of this.
r3volution 3.0
04-22-2015, 07:33 PM
Cruz is counting on dominating the debates. 1 debate performance can make all the difference in Iowa.
He would definitely win....any high-school debate contest he entered. :cool:
I don't see his style playing too well on prime time though. Speaking to a small group of the faithful is one thing, speaking to millions of normal people is another.
Cruz exudes "that dweeb who always unnecessarily wore a suit to school." No one likes that guy.
Vanguard101
04-22-2015, 07:36 PM
Walker will be our nominee.
rich34
04-22-2015, 07:39 PM
He would definitely win....any high-school debate contest he entered. :cool:
I don't see his style playing too well on prime time though. Speaking to a small group of the faithful is one thing, speaking to millions of normal people is another.
Cruz exudes "that dweeb who always unnecessarily wore a suit to school." No one likes that guy.
I agree totally but if you hear Beck and company and they literally say the guy has the most support among independents while Rand not so... I know its Beck but he does have a huge crowd that could potentially be Rand supporters if not for blatently giving Cruz acholades that actually belong to Rand.
r3volution 3.0
04-22-2015, 07:41 PM
Aside from including Rice
only two candidates did best against Hillary
Rand and Huck both got 43 with Hillary getting 44. What is it with Huck? I've noticed he did well against Hillary in other polls too, is it because he is a gov? Is it because of his show and presence on tv? Is it because he is a pastor? What gives...
I don't know if it's just a coincidence (can't think of any good reason for it), but Rand and Huck have extremely similar polling in several ways, e,g. favorability.
philipped
04-22-2015, 07:42 PM
Walker will be our nominee.
Chilllllllllll
philipped
04-22-2015, 07:42 PM
Walker will be our nominee.
Chilllllllllll
r3volution 3.0
04-22-2015, 07:43 PM
I agree totally but if you hear Beck and company and they literally say the guy has the most support among independents while Rand not so... I know its Beck but he does have a huge crowd that could potentially be Rand supporters if not for blatently giving Cruz acholades that actually belong to Rand.
There are lots of reason to be worried about Cruz (like Beck et al shilling for him), to be sure, but his alleged rhetorical skill isn't one of them IMO.
hells_unicorn
04-22-2015, 07:44 PM
It doesn't seem like Rand's Hillary attacks are working. I wish he would just cut that out and focus on the issues, focus on a positive message.
Rand's attacks on Hillary are probably meant to keep his general likability with the GOP rank and file high and not necessarily to increase his poll numbers. Furthermore, primary elections are not about putting out a positive message, they are for pandering to the party's base. You're thinking of the general election, which is well over a year away.
If you are having doubts this early, you might need to take a break from following the news for a bit.
squirl22
04-22-2015, 07:45 PM
Walker will be our nominee.
You mean YOUR nominee. Speak for yourself.
rich34
04-22-2015, 07:48 PM
Walker will be our nominee.
I see this election having the most potential to being a brokered convention since what 76 or 64. You could be right though because the media is going to make him the "anti establish candidate." Just as they didSantorum.. Rand has to be aware of this and do everything possible to get that position. Unfortanetly they know if Rand achieves this with his existing support its the ball game. Keep in mind Kentucky is moving up their primary which will give Rand a win there along with great shot at New Hampshire and Nevada. I think some might be under estimating just how much infrastructure is still left in place in those early states from Ron's two straight presidential runs.
RonPaulFanInGA
04-22-2015, 08:07 PM
The most noteworthy bit IMO is that Cruz isn't making any headway.
His whole campaign is tailored to an electorate like Iowa's, socon/teocon.
If he can't do well there, he's done.
Cruz was always a legend only in the medias' minds.
adelina
04-22-2015, 08:09 PM
Walker will be our nominee.
If Walker becomes the nominee then Hillary will be president. I'll just assume that's who you really want.
Previous Gravis Iowa Poll 2/12-2/13:
Walker 24%
Jeb 10%
Huckabee 7%
Paul 10%
Carson 5%
Rubio 7%
So between the Feb and April Gravis Polls, Jeb, Rubio and Carson have moved up, Huckabee and Rand fairly stable, Walker has moved down.
hells_unicorn
04-22-2015, 08:13 PM
Cruz was always a legend only in the medias' minds.
Cruz will probably end up being similar to Perry back in 2012, he'll peak early and end up fading before being able to win anything. Though to be fair to Cruz, I don't think he will do nearly as badly in the debates and have as many viral gaffes as Perry. Similarly, I wouldn't be surprised if Marco Rubio ends up imploding early on, though at best he may end up fairing about as well as Gingrich did last time around.
VictorB
04-22-2015, 09:23 PM
-Late in October of 2011 Herman Cain was on top in Iowa polls with ~25%. Two months later in January for the caucus he was essentially out of Iowa. That's two months before the primary.
-2-3 weeks later in early December, Newt blasts to the top with 27% in Iowa. A month later in the caucus he is out.
-Ron Paul was barely breaking double digits in October, a whole two months before actual voting. By December 31st he was polling 1st/2nd with ~23%.
I just want to put some ease into your minds that this is very much a marathon. Half the candidates we see by June/July will not be here come January. Rand has a base of 10%-12% in April. That is huge. His numbers really never seem to change with all the latest flavor of the month candidates.
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