Serious question regarding carry over support from 2012 in early states

[kbs021]

Okay guys I have a serious question regarding support in 2012 carrying over to 2016. Ron got an incredible 21 % in Iowa and another great showing 23 % in New Hampshire. I know polling right now is crap and it was crap in some of these states for Ron in 2012 up until weeks before those elections. However, anyone want to comment on the fact that if we held these same percentages that Rand could seriously win one or both of these states? I know we want to improve and we can for sure, however, if the field gets as big as projected, Rand could literally win with the same support that Ron got.

I just feel that as more young people become eligible to vote and more young people "wake up" that we could even pull in 5% to 10% of new voters not too mention pull in some on the fence people that didn't like Ron being so very vocal on foreign policy. Do you guys seriously see a way that Rand could do worse in either of these states?

[CPUd]

Unless he totally screws something up, he will be at least top 3 in both these states. SC and FL, forget about those. Nevada he has a good shot at winning outright.

A lot of people registered and got active in their local and state parties because of Ron Paul 2012. In Iowa, someone even got elected Chair of the state party. Many have been forced out since then, but in the case of Iowa, he is now working for Rand. Polls are good, but in the early states, having that local infrastructure and GOTV on the big day is what wins. Phone banking is what gets good poll numbers and probable voters.

[kbs021]

Well I think SC would be in play if Rand is the leading conservative candidate at the time. If someone like Rubio, Cruz, Walker, etc. Fails to show up, I feel that Rand would get more support than the polls are showing now. I don't mean winning, however, many voters for conservatives can swing on who they think can win and Rand could do better than expected here. As for FL, I believe that is way lower in the calender which is huge. I believe that NV is fourth now or at least until something else happens with the schedule.

[CPUd]

The only ones who have a chance at winning SC are the ones who are talking U.S. boots on the ground against ISIS and preemptive strikes on Iran. Rand could place 3-6th there- we'll get a better idea after they do some more polling, since he had appearances there for his announcement.

It is possible FL will try to move its primary earlier like they did last time. If they do, FL will get penalized again and won't send but a couple voting delegates to the RNC. I could see Rand placing 2-4th there, depending on who is still in at that point. If JEB, Rubio or Carson are in, Rand has 0.01% chance at winning it. If it is just Rand and Cruz, Rand might have a shot.

[Sola_Fide]

Read this: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?472854-Article-Rand-Would-Be-Wise-To-Embrace-His-Libertarian-Roots

[ssunlimited]

Why should we care about SC now? NO republican in the modern era won the nomination without first winning IA or NH. We need those wins first. I think Rand should concentrate more on Nevada if he wins IA or NH as Nevada was friendly to RP.

[FriedChicken]

this early it may not be a bad idea to to focus on general election battle states too.
being the best candidate to beat Hillary could translate into more support in important primary states.

[orenbus]

If IA and/or NH isn't won, realistically the campaign doesn't go any further.