Rand Paul Gains 7 Points in New NH State Poll

[IndianaPolitico]

"Paul, who Tuesday launched his presidential bid, is at 14.9% in the new survey. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday, right after Paul's announcement in Kentucky and visit to the Granite State. Paul registered at 8.3% in the previous NH1 News poll."

http://www.nh1.com/news/nh1-news-2016-gop-poll-walker-leads-cruz-and-rubio-gain-ground-trump-in-the-mix/

[orenbus]

Good stuff although still very early, I'll get really excited when he's polling 25%+ in NH.

[Xenliad]

Walker 23%
Bush 17%
Paul 15%
Cruz 9%
Trump 8%
Rubio 7%
Carson 7%
Christie 6%
Huckabee 6%
Fiorina 2%
Perry 2%

3% error margin

[IndianaPolitico]

Looked at the RCP average for NH in 2012. Around this time during that race, Ron was averaging around 6 percent with Romney in the lead at 40 percent.

We have come a long way.

[Patrick Henry]

Among Republicans only, Walker's at 23.4%, Bush register's at 17.3% and Paul's at 13.5%. But among independents, Paul tops the list at 21.2%, with Walker at 19.2%, Bush at 13.1% and Trump at 12.1%....

[orenbus]

Among Republicans only, Walker's at 23.4%, Bush register's at 17.3% and Paul's at 13.5%. But among independents, Paul tops the list at 21.2%, with Walker at 19.2%, Bush at 13.1% and Trump at 12.1%.

This is why it's going to be critical to get independents that like Rand but are affiliated with other parties to switch over before the deadline so they can vote on primary election day. Not sure how much of an effort can be done in this regard by the official campaign at least not overtly without allegations by media critics that they are getting Dems and others to "stack the deck", perhaps a task for the grassroots?

[invisible]

This is why it's going to be critical to get independents that like Rand but are affiliated with other parties to switch over before the deadline so they can vote on primary election day. Not sure how much of an effort can be done in this regard by the official campaign at least not overtly without allegations by media critics that they are getting Dems and others to "stack the deck", perhaps a task for the grassroots?

Registration can be switched at the polling place, same day as the primary / caucus, in both IA and NH. Not sure about any of the other early states. I think NH has been this way for a while. IA went to same day registration and / or allowing party switching in 2007-8.

[eleganz]

I am not bullish on these numbers but it is still early. I hope Rand can gain good numbers but most importantly, keep them. I would hate seeing Rand inflate and deflate all over the place

[orenbus]

Registration can be switched at the polling place, same day as the primary / caucus, in both IA and NH. Not sure about any of the other early states. I think NH has been this way for a while. IA went to same day registration and / or allowing party switching in 2007-8.

It depends on specific state and affiliation status (for example different for Dems than unaffiliated), take a look at the dates for last cycle including date to change registration, where states require registration to party or undeclared to vote:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?315740-State-by-State-Voting-Information

Here is the voter registration FAQ page for NH:
http://sos.nh.gov/VoterRegFAQ.aspx


You may change your party affiliation with the clerk of the town or city where you are domiciled or at any scheduled meeting of the supervisors of the checklist except for during the period of time between the first day of the filing period for the primary election and the date of the primary election itself.

[anaconda]

Why would anyone give Rubio any money to run for president? I don't get it.

[Anti-Neocon]

This just shows how important media attention is. In a week his numbers will be even better, then will fall back down soon after, as Rubio announces and steals those soft votes.

[Okaloosa]

It depends on specific state and affiliation status (for example different for Dems than unaffiliated), take a look at the dates for last cycle including date to change registration, where states require registration to party or undeclared to vote:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?315740-State-by-State-Voting-Information

Here is the voter registration FAQ page for NH:
http://sos.nh.gov/VoterRegFAQ.aspx

In New Hampshire Independents can vote in either primary, I do believe Ron Paul actually got some votes in the Democrat primary too probably form some dems that didn't switch over. For dems that lean to Rand we could just convince them to switch to independent to vote for Rand even if they will still vote for the dem in the general.

[Anti-Neocon]

Why would anyone give Rubio any money to run for president? I don't get it.
a) they have an ulterior motive
b) they are a sucker

[dude58677]

a) they have an ulterior motive
b) they are a sucker


Joe Biden is a sucker for sucking on a pacifier:
http://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-apparently-put-a-babys-pacifier-in-his-mouth-2015-4

[orenbus]

In New Hampshire Independents can vote in either primary, I do believe Ron Paul actually got some votes in the Democrat primary too probably form some dems that didn't switch over. For dems that lean to Rand we could just convince them to switch to independent to vote for Rand even if they will still vote for the dem in the general.

Agreed independent/unaffiliated would work too. Yea I think that was the problem the Dems missed the deadline because they didn't know there was one, but still wanted to vote for him.

Edit: In fact Ron Paul got 2,289 votes in the Dems primary (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshi re,_2012#Democratic_primary)in NH. Not that those votes would have won him the state that year instead of coming in second, since Romney got near 40% being from a neighboring state. However if it was closer for example in Iowa where the difference of winning or coming in second was near 3k (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa,_2012# Results), could be the difference between winning and losing.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b7bgtu2O4E

[eleganz]

Either way, we have to make sure Rand wins both IA and NH, that is the only way to be the main conservative to back. I just hope if Rand wins Iowa and Cruz doesn't, then Cruz would have the balls to drop out and do the right thing. We all know Cruz will suck in NH.

[invisible]

It depends on specific state and affiliation status (for example different for Dems than unaffiliated), take a look at the dates for last cycle including date to change registration, where states require registration to party or undeclared to vote:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?315740-State-by-State-Voting-Information

Here is the voter registration FAQ page for NH:
http://sos.nh.gov/VoterRegFAQ.aspx

I personally know of a democrat in NH that, in 2012, switched their registration at the polling place, voted for Ron Paul, then switched it back again on their way out. Or at least that's what they told me they did, it's entirely possible they were full of it.

[anaconda]

a) they have an ulterior motive
b) they are a sucker

Their money would be better spent on Jeb or Walker than giving it to the retard Rubio. I still don't get why any establishment people would want to waste their money on Rubio. Somebody throw me a bone , here.

[alucard13mm]

So if/when Walker announces hes gonna break 40%? lol...

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Why would anyone give Rubio any money to run for president? I don't get it.Good question. The TP money is going to Paul and Cruz, establishment money is going to Bush and Walker. Everyone else (especially someone weak on illegal immigration, like Rubio) is assed out.

[Peace&Freedom]

This just shows how important media attention is. In a week his numbers will be even better, then will fall back down soon after, as Rubio announces and steals those soft votes.

Hillary's announcement is also meant to limit the bump Rand got in the polls. Cruz got to ride a full week of solo media attention after announcing, Rand got 3 days. By Friday, the MSM discussion was leading with Hillary this, Hillary that, such that Rand won't be the focus of the Sunday gab shows, as Cruz was.

[serenityrick]

I really don't understand the support for Walker.. The only thing I can think of is that people like the fact that he's a Governer. Other than that, he's pretty middle of the road milk-toast. Nothing exciting about him at all.

[Jeffster]

The 2012 NH Dem primary was a tight contest between Hillary and Obama. If Hillary is the anointed one in 2016, then a lot of dems could crossover and vote for Rand because Hillary wouldn't need their vote.

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

Registration can be switched at the polling place, same day as the primary / caucus, in both IA and NH. Not sure about any of the other early states. I think NH has been this way for a while. IA went to same day registration and / or allowing party switching in 2007-8.
in NJ I know that if you have no party affiliation you can declare at the polls, but can't switch

[CPUd]

Hillary's announcement is also meant to limit the bump Rand got in the polls. Cruz got to ride a full week of solo media attention after announcing, Rand got 3 days. By Friday, the MSM discussion was leading with Hillary this, Hillary that, such that Rand won't be the focus of the Sunday gab shows, as Cruz was.

Rand will be on State of the Union, Face the Nation and Meet the Press tomorrow.

[Peace&Freedom]

Rand will be on State of the Union, Face the Nation and Meet the Press tomorrow.

He probably won't be the focus or major topic of the shows, as Cruz was, and will likely be forced to talk about Hillary for much of "his" time.

[francisco]

He probably won't be the focus or major topic of the shows, as Cruz was, and will likely be forced to talk about Hillary for much of "his" time.

That's what you call one of those "good" problems.

Rand's been the most outspoken of the prospective Republican candidates in his criticism of HRC, and this will be a great opportunity for him to attack her and toss some real red meat.

[philipped]

That's what you call one of those "good" problems.

Rand's been the most outspoken of the prospective Republican candidates in his criticism of HRC, and this will be a great opportunity for him to attack her and toss some real red meat.

#ThingsNomineesDo

[Anti-Neocon]

I really don't understand the support for Walker.. The only thing I can think of is that people like the fact that he's a Governer. Other than that, he's pretty middle of the road milk-toast. Nothing exciting about him at all.
Koch bros love him. Adelson loves him. I'm guessing other big money types like Singer wouldn't mind him either even if he may not be a first choice. After all, the goal is to build a huge war chest.

Pragmatist Republicans see him as someone who can win an election, neocons like that he can enact their agenda, and idiots like him for being a "tough conservative" or whatever crap they're fed.

[whoisjohngalt]

This is extremely misleading claiming any sort of bump in New Hampshire. In this particular NH1 poll he gained that much, but the fact that Donald Trump is getting 8% in this poll should give you some clues as to their accuracy.

If you look at the RCP average of NH polls, 15% is right in line with the top end of where he's been polling in NH since at least last month. It's much more likely the 8% reading the NH1 poll got the last time was an outlier.

I wish it were true but I think there is no clear evidence of a bump, yet.

[CPUd]

I really don't understand the support for Walker.. The only thing I can think of is that people like the fact that he's a Governer. Other than that, he's pretty middle of the road milk-toast. Nothing exciting about him at all.

A lot of these are people who were polling for Mitt in NH for the 3 weeks or so before he said finally for sure he's not running. After they dropped Mitt from the list, Walker started polling 1st in NH.

[helenpaul]

7% support the filthbag rubio? too many idiots in NH.

[Uriah]

I personally know of a democrat in NH that, in 2012, switched their registration at the polling place, voted for Ron Paul, then switched it back again on their way out. Or at least that's what they told me they did, it's entirely possible they were full of it.

I know of dozens of people in Iowa that switched party to vote for Ron both years and then switched it back the text day.