AP/Pew NH poll: Paul at 9%

[DRV45N05]

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/375.pdf

Romney 37%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 15%
Paul 9%
Huckabee 7%
Thompson 3%

Some problems with the poll, based on my observations of the state:

1) The top-2's support is overestimated, especially Romney's.
2) The percentage of Republicans in NH who think US troops should come home is lower than that percentage in SC? YEAH, RIGHT!

Once again, I think this poll seriously underestimates Ron's support. However, it's definitely doing a better job than ARG, and I think this one gets Huckabee's support right.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/375.pdf

Romney 37%
Giuliani 19%
McCain 15%
Paul 9%
Huckabee 7%
Thompson 3%

Some problems with the poll, based on my observations of the state:

1) The top-2's support is overestimated, especially Romney's.
2) The percentage of Republicans in NH who think US troops should come home is lower than that percentage in SC? YEAH, RIGHT!

Once again, I think this poll seriously underestimates Ron's support. However, it's definitely doing a better job than ARG, and I think this one gets Huckabee's support right.

Anyone want to take bets that the next NH poll has Ron in double digits? :D

[Teflon Master]

amongst independents?

[ghemminger]

Woothooo!

[AFM]

Why is Thompson so low?

[curtisag]

I see the real problem Paul is having. 14% of men support Paul, but only 3% of women. Paul must hit the panic button on why women are not following men into the Paul camp.

[brumans]

amongst independents?

According to the pdf file for New Hampshire independents it is:

1. Mitt Romney 32%
2. Ron Paul 20%
3. John McCain 18%
4. Rudy Giuliani 15%

[ThePieSwindler]

According to the pdf file for New Hampshire independents it is:

1. Mitt Romney 32%
2. Ron Paul 20%
3. John McCain 18%
4. Rudy Giuliani 15%

Thats about right - i have seen one with independants at 27% for ron paul, but mid 20s seems about right. He has very good numbers to win NH, and remember, turnout is KEY, and something heavily in our favor that is being overlooked. We need to start organizing get-out-the-vote measures for Iowa and NH soon, though.

[Ron Paul Fan]

According to the pdf file for New Hampshire independents it is:

1. Mitt Romney 32%
2. Ron Paul 20%
3. John McCain 18%
4. Rudy Giuliani 15%

And this is why John McCain has started attacking him! McCain won there in 2000 with a big help from the independents. Now he's a washed up, flip flopping, pro war demagogue. As George Will said, McCain is yesterday's maverick compared to Ron Paul!

[Lois]

Because women are stupid, so they're going to vote for Hillary just because she's a woman, and women want to have abortions, so they won't vote for Ron Paul. And women hate the war, so they wouldn't vote for a Republican, even if God was a Republican because Republicans are warmongers.

[RPinSEAZ]

Because women are stupid, so they're going to vote for Hillary just because she's a woman, and women want to have abortions, so they won't vote for Ron Paul. And women hate the war, so they wouldn't vote for a Republican, even if God was a Republican because Republicans are warmongers.

Huh?

[jgmaynard]

I really don't see Romney's supporters at ALL excited about him - it's all name recognition with that guy here. PAUL'S supporters on the other hand will have a MUCH higher turnout, IMHO.

Why is Thompson doing so badly? No one here takes him seriously, he's considered to be to lazy and he hasn't campaigned here nearly enough.

Why is Paul polling so much lower among women? Cause he hasn't appeared on "The View" yet. Oh, wait a minute... ;) :D

JM

[Paulitician]

Hopefully the View coverage Ron Paul has gotten today gets more females on board.

[Ridiculous]

When he breaks 10% in Rasmussen, Gallop or Zogby the media will say "at only 10% he is still way behind the front runners...." Watch.

There was all kinds of articles when Huck broke double digits, unfortunately, when Paul does I bet it will be largely ignored.

[jgmaynard]

And the way things are going, when he breaks 10% in the next week to ten days, the other candidates will each be beneath 20%, then we are in striking range, and it's all a matter of turnout. :D

JM

[runderwo]

and women want to have abortions


and women (other than myself, who would never have a good reason to have an abortion, but it must be a good idea to allow them since other people demand it so loudly) want to have abortions

Fixed that for you. (I know it wasn't your actual opinion, I'm just making a point about how others see it)

[LibertyOfOne]

Because women are stupid, so they're going to vote for Hillary just because she's a woman, and women want to have abortions, so they won't vote for Ron Paul. And women hate the war, so they wouldn't vote for a Republican, even if God was a Republican because Republicans are warmongers.

Quit being an idiot. Maybe it's the fact that people like you scare away people with that type of nonsense.

[MozoVote]

Because women are stupid, so they're going to vote for Hillary just because she's a woman, and women want to have abortions, so they won't vote for Ron Paul. And women hate the war, so they wouldn't vote for a Republican, even if God was a Republican because Republicans are warmongers.

I will give you the benefit of the doubt, that you just left FredThompsonForum and are still expressing yourself through subtrefuge and sarcasm... Breathe, now. Breathe. OK. It's safe to think again.

[Bradley in DC]

Because women are stupid, so they're going to vote for Hillary just because she's a woman, and women want to have abortions, so they won't vote for Ron Paul. And women hate the war, so they wouldn't vote for a Republican, even if God was a Republican because Republicans are warmongers.

I'm guessing you never had to diagram a sentence in grammer class. :D

[Karsten]

Because women are stupid, so they're going to vote for Hillary just because she's a woman, and women want to have abortions, so they won't vote for Ron Paul. And women hate the war, so they wouldn't vote for a Republican, even if God was a Republican because Republicans are warmongers.

Bad experience?

[Ron Paul Fan]

Not all women are stupid. They're just misinformed and we should be out trying to inform them, not lumping them all together and calling them idiots. There are plenty of men out there are are just as misinformed and I don't see anyone calling them stupid. Spread the message to all, men and women! They may or may not vote for Ron Paul, but we have to at least try to reach them and thankfully Dr. Paul realizes this and that's why he want on The View today.

[austin356]

YEA!!!

If we get into the lower teens and everyone else is in the teens I believe we win.

[austin356]

Bad experience?


x2

[KCIndy]

Getting back to topic...

I agree with the others who have said this is all about turnout. Just because a leading candidate shows 37 percent support doesn't mean he's going to get anywhere NEAR that number to actually bother to vote for him in the primaries.

Ron Paul supporters are solid, diehard people committed to action. Again, turnout is CRITICAL and that's why I would urge everyone do do everything possible to support www.operationlivefreeordie.com

OLFOD has over 450 active Ron Paul advocates campaigning tirelessly to get Ron Paul's name and message in front of the voters of New Hampshire. What's more - they're becoming VERY successful at it! To top it off, these people are doing this at their own expense. That's dedication, folks.

There's a drive going on today (December 5th) called www.fiveforfreedom.com in which five bucks is being requested from each donor to support the volunteers. Let me be clear - the money is going directly to the grassroots volunteer effort and not to the general campaign.

In my opinion, it's one of the best "bang for the buck" campaigns going right now. Personally, I'm going to donate more than the five bucks - these people deserve our help. They're on the front lines of this campaign and they're driving forward for the win.

[Mental Dribble]

Tha it jsut awesome, I think we will hit double digits for sure... and lets not forgot all of the new voters Ron is bring in that the paul doesn't even start to touch on... we will have a showing well over our poll numbers. I truly believe it!

[Harry96]

I'm guessing you never had to diagram a sentence in grammer class. :D

You misspelled grammar, professor.