Dr. Paul might not get nominated

[Bradley in DC]

In response to another thread, I took a look at the RNC rules that will govern the voting in the nomination for President and Vice President.

It is possible that Dr. Paul could have more delegates than any other candidate and be ineligible to be nominated (note--this is not a conspiracy against us, these rules were in place four years ago). To wit, Dr. Paul will need to win the majority of delegates in five or more states (including territories and DC) to be eligible to be nominated:

http://www.gop.com/About/AboutRead.aspx?AboutType=4&Section=18


RULE NO. 40
Nominations
(a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.

(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall declare that the candidate has been nominated.

(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.

(f) For the 2004 Republican National Convention, notwithstanding any other provision of these rules or any Rule of the House of Representatives, it shall be in the discretion of the Chair to suspend the roll call conducted to nominate the candidate for President of the United States at any time in order to conduct other Convention business under the established order of business.

[AlexMerced]

we can do that

[Patriot]

Paragraph 'e' seems to say that a simple majority can be used if the terms of paragraph 'b' are not met.

Besides, the majority of the 5 states delegates could be from five small states and that would still count.

I don't know exactly where I'm going with this, but I don't think it changes our odds of winning.

[chadism]

I think these are rules for the convention. We already knew he might not win without a MAJORITY of delegates agreeing to nominate him once the convention comes.

A plurality in the popular vote will make it easier for our delegates to convince others to do the right thing.

Am I missing something?

[Todd]

I have seen this information before, but can't find it now... Question? How do I become a delegate? I live in Virginia.

[stewie3128]

And if it doesn't happen on the first ballot, we can do it on subsequent ballots - not that that happens much anymore, but hopefully this won't be your typical election. :)

[Bradley in DC]

I think these are rules for the convention. We already knew he might not win without a MAJORITY of delegates agreeing to nominate him once the convention comes.

A plurality in the popular vote will make it easier for our delegates to convince others to do the right thing.

Am I missing something?

Yes, sorry, these are the rules for the Republican National Nominating Convention. This thread is about the requirement to get nominated to be eligible for the delegates to vote for him in the first place. If we don't win the majority of five states, no one could vote for him.

[Bradley in DC]

Paragraph 'e' seems to say that a simple majority can be used if the terms of paragraph 'b' are not met.

No, you are misreading the rules.
Paragraph (b) refers to the minimum to be eligible to be nominated so delegates can vote for them in the first place.

Paragraph (e) says that if a candidate that already meets the requirements of (b) does not get a majority of the vote, then they will revote until that happens. (some keep posting that a candidate only needs a plurality, which is contrary to the rules).

[Bradley in DC]

I have seen this information before, but can't find it now... Question? How do I become a delegate? I live in Virginia.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/forumdisplay.php?f=140

[Bradley in DC]

And if it doesn't happen on the first ballot, we can do it on subsequent ballots

No, Stewie (images of The Family Guy in my head). If we do not win a majority of delegates in five states Dr. Paul will not be eligible to be nominated on any ballots. Period.

[ursamajor]

We got it.

[Paul4Prez]

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.


I don't think this will be an issue. With so many states being winner-take-all, if Ron Paul is leading in delegates he will undoubtedly have won at least 5 states.

If Ron Paul has the lead in delegates going into the convention, but not a majority, I don't think he has any chance to be nominated anyway -- the other candidates would band together against him. It's pretty much the first ballot, or nothing.

That being said, he can still easily (okay, not easily) earn a majority of the delegates, even if he gets only 30% or so of the raw vote, since most states (or districts within states) give the first place finisher the delegates, regardless of the vote percentage.

And Ron Paul can get 30% of the vote, even if he is only polling at 10% when the primaries start, if all Ron Paul supporters make sure they are registered, and make sure they vote. Turnout wins primaries, not polls, not money, not popularity, not media coverage.

[WRellim]

If we do not win a majority of delegates in five states Dr. Paul will not be eligible to be nominated on any ballots. Period.

That will be true of other candidates as well.

This rule is intended to essentially *prevent* a brokered convention, and instead to "throw" the election to the person who gets the biggest "snowball" rolling and who survives long enough to WIN with a "majority" (>50%) in several of the later states.

REWRITE... just noticed that it is majority of the DELEGATES from five states.

In many states, the delegates are given on a winner-take-all (either statewide or combination state and congressional districts). The winner of the "overall" will also most likely win in a significant percentage of the districts, enough that he would claim a "majority" (over 50%) of the delegates from that state.

This will be a non issue for most.

What WILL be interesting though is that this Rule 40(b) stands in direct opposition to the "binding" of delegates -- who are often required by law as well as "pledge/oath" to vote ONLY for the candidate that won their "slot" -- until rounds of VOTES have occurred that fall below their threshold of "binding" and/or their candidate releases them. Could be an interesting aspect of delegates being required to vote for a candidate who they cannot vote for... sounds like the Chairman would have to either "unbind" everyone (or maybe just those delegates?) or set aside rule 40(b).

[Bradley in DC]

If Ron Paul has the lead in delegates going into the convention, but not a majority, I don't think he has any chance to be nominated anyway -- the other candidates would band together against him.

We'll see. If at the end of March or so we see that no candidate will likely have a majority, it would start the smoke-filled backroom deal negotiation then. During the summer months Dr. Paul could ALSO pick up the presidential nominations of other parties which would strengthen his hand in those negotiations. :)

[Bradley in DC]

That will be true of other candidates as well.

Yes, of course. People need to get over this insecurity-driven there's a conspiracy against us mentality, learn the rules, do the work and win back the Republic.


This rule is intended to essentially *prevent* a brokered convention, and instead to "throw" the election to the person who gets the biggest "snowball" rolling and who survives long enough to WIN with a "majority" (>50%) in several of the later states.

My suspicion is that the rule was intended to keep out fringe or favorite son candidates, but the effect is the same. I'm not sure about the "throwing" the election, but to narrow the selection to the "main" candidates who can demonstrate significant support. I'm not arguing the rule is good or bad, I just want our side to be up on everything.


What WILL be interesting though is that this Rule 40(b) stands in direct opposition to the "binding" of delegates -- who are often required by law as well as "pledge/oath" to vote ONLY for the candidate that won their "slot" -- until rounds of VOTES have occurred that fall below their threshold of "binding" and/or their candidate releases them. Could be an interesting aspect of delegates being required to vote for a candidate who they cannot vote for... sounds like the Chairman would have to either "unbind" everyone (or maybe just those delegates?) or set aside rule 40(b).

That occurred to me as well. My guess, though I may check on it, is that one is bound if eligible. I suspect the candidate would then "release" them and urge them to vote for that candidate's choice. On the other hand, perhaps those votes would just not be counted.

[OReich]

Lol, I strongly doubt ANYONE will have a majority in any of the Republican primaries. Which makes the rule really weird, since this isn't that bizarre.

[Bradley in DC]

Lol, I strongly doubt ANYONE will have a majority in any of the Republican primaries. Which makes the rule really weird, since this isn't that bizarre.

You obviously aren't familiar with these rules. Some states are winner-take-all by state and many more are winner-take-all for the At-Large delegates and I think all are winner-take-all by CD. Face reality and not your bizzaro world if you want us to have any chance.

[OReich]

Guys, I don't think Ron Paul would definitely lose if he's the leader without a majority; the press response would definitely kill whatever small chances the Republican nominee has at becoming the President. They'd rightfully call it pro-war, corrupt elites running the party (this will be a commonly held view if/when Ron Paul is winning primaries.)

[Dan D.]

So all he needs to do is win 5 winner-take-all states? Or am I missing something?

[CelestialRender]

No, you are misreading the rules.
Paragraph (b) refers to the minimum to be eligible to be nominated so delegates can vote for them in the first place.

Paragraph (e) says that if a candidate that already meets the requirements of (b) does not get a majority of the vote, then they will revote until that happens. (some keep posting that a candidate only needs a plurality, which is contrary to the rules).

This is the correct reading. We have to get majorities in at least 5 states. That said;

There are at least two states that I think we have in the bag; and I'd project we win at least 10, with a strong showing in others.

I really think everyone's short-changing us, even the supporters. No one will remember what it was like in '07, after early January propels us to the top.

[fuzzybekool]

We should be planning from now to have thousands and thousands of Ron Paul supporters circling the convention center as a show of force to let the delegates know that we are watching, and we will not let this nomination be stolen from the people.

[cindy25]

in the highly unlikely event of a brokered convention deals would have to be made. maybe a cabinet position, or even the vice presidency. but there is so little chance this could happen.

[Bradley in DC]

We should be planning from now to have thousands and thousands of Ron Paul supporters circling the convention center as a show of force to let the delegates know that we are watching, and we will not let this nomination be stolen from the people.

<sigh> just learn the rules, play the game and beat them at it. :(

[hueylong]

Did you know that we could go to the Republican Convention with the most Delegates, and still not be able to get Dr. Paul's name placed in nomination?

That's because of little discussed Rule 40B of the Republican National Committee.

http://www.gop.com/images/2008_Call_FINAL.pdf

"(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination."

What does this mean, in practice? It means that no matter how many delegates we win over the course of the primaries and caucuses -- if we don't have a majority (50% or more) of the delegates in at least 5 states -- Dr. Paul's name cannot be placed in nomination.

This is something we need to consider strategically. How do we focus our resources to win a majority of delegates in at least 5 states?

- "Pure" Winner Take All States. There are six states, I think, where the top votegetter statewide is awarded all the delegates. Those represent strong possibilities for us. If we can be the top vote getter in these states -- we get all their delegates.

Missouri (Open Primary)
New Jersey (Modified Open (Independents can vote))
New York (Closed Primary)
Utah (Modified)
Virginia (Open)
Vermont (Open)

It doesn't matter how large or small the state is -- just that we get a majority of the delegation of a state... So, states like say -- Vermont, or Alaska -- could become very important. I would think Dr. Paul has a shot in each of these Winner Take All states with the possible exception of New York.

There are about 15 more states that are hybrid Winner Take All / Proportional. That means the top votegetter statewide gets the 10 "at large" delegates, and the top votegetter in each congressional district gets 3 delegates. That is a somewhat more complex matter.

Every state is different, so we need to consider this matter carefully.

What concerns me, is that we are all so excited about raising money and canvassing (which are critical) -- but I haven't heard anyone focusing on the strategy we need to pursue to not only win every delegate we can -- but also qualify to be nominated for President under rule 40B.

I'm working on this issue. Please let me know what you think.

Sincerely,

Huey

[njandrewg]

don't worry about it, I believe we already have 5 states where we'll get more than 50%. And lets not forget that after we do well in the first couple of states the cowards who only back winners will jump on the bandwagon

[hueylong]

Since I run campaigns for a living, I am worried about it.

Fantasizing that we are going to win every primary just because we love Dr. Paul doesn't quite cut it.

It's likely that there will be multiple Republican candidates running well into the process -- so getting a majority of the delegates in any given state will be difficult.

Only the pure Winner Take All states give an opportunity to get all the delegates with a plurality of the vote (say 25% or so)... The other states will require an outright victory, or winning a majority of congressional districts in larger states.

We are involved in a process that has rules. We ignore the rules at our peril.

Respectfully,

Huey

[hueylong]

Sorry I hadn't seen this thread before I posted mine.

Thanks Brad for being on top of this. I appreciate your analysis on this issue.

We Paulites need to learn the rules if we expect to compete. It won't matter how many demonstrators we have or how loud we scream.

If we don't understand the rules and compete within them -- we have no standing at all.

It's not a conspiracy -- it's the rules of the nominating process that everyone must abide by.

That said -- I think we can get a majority in Vermont (Winner Take All / Open) -- but I'm not sure where else at this point...

Sincerely,

Huey

[Primbs]

I think Ron Paul can win Alaska, Idaho, West Virginia, maybe Nevada and hopefully a few other big states.

[hueylong]

I don't necessarily disagree that he can win those states. But that's not the issue. The question is whether he can get a majority of the delegates in those states.

We have to drill down and do the math on each state based on the delegate selection process and rules.

Huey

[Copperhed51]

Kansas is winner take all and I have a pretty good feeling about Kansas.

[hueylong]

Kansas is a Caucus/Convention State. Not a winner take all primary...

[raiha]

How are the other nominees coming along in this regard? Are they all covered?

[hueylong]

None of the voting has taken place yet, so everyone is in the same situation.

Giuliani & Romney are probably in the strongest positions to meet this criteria given their combination of money, polling & support of the party establishment.

They have better chances to lock up certain Caucus states and proportional states.

But that's just the point -- we need a strategy to make sure we meet this threshold -- or we are completely shut out at the convention.

Huey

[bszoka]

It's worth making a nuanced distinction here. The rule requires that:


(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.


Unless I'm missing something, this does NOT require directly that Ron "win" five state primaries. Rather, the rule requires that Ron have the support of the majority of each of five state delegations at the time of the Convention.

Now, obviously, the best--if not the only--way for us to assure that this happens is for Ron to "win" at least five primaries by taking either all or most of each state's delegates. But as long as some non-Paul delegates are free to switch their support to Paul--or to refrain from voting entirely, thus lowering the majority requirement for that state--it is possible that Paul could cobble together a majority of a state he did not "win" at the primary. I believe this question is a matter of state law and will therefore vary widely, with some states binding delegates to vote for their candidate.

I'm not saying we want to be in this position, but it's a nuance to keep in mind.

Am I missing something?

[Bradley in DC]

For the purpose of this rule, keep in mind that DC and the named territories are considered "states" so we have more options.


RULE NO. 27 (http://www.gop.com/About/AboutRead.aspx?AboutType=4&Section=17)
Definition of "States”
Whenever used in these rules, "state" or "states" shall be taken to include American Samoa, the District of Columbia, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, except in Rule No. 13 and unless the context in which the word "state" or "states" is used clearly makes such inclusion inappropriate.

[trey4sports]

Kansas is winner take all and I have a pretty good feeling about Kansas.

well dont, i live close to Ks (KC MO) and Dr. Paul needs a lot of help here in the midwest many white collar familys find his ideas too radical. we really need to work hard here in the midwest

[bszoka]

Someone in this thread pointed out that, at a brokered convention, Paul might have additional leverage by threatening to run as a third-party candidate.

Given that the convention will take place just two months before the general election, how many state ballots would Paul still be able to get on? And, how difficult would it be to get him on the ballot as a third-party candidate at that late date? Obviously, the more states where that will still be possible, the more credible the threat to bolt will be.

[Bradley in DC]

Someone in this thread pointed out that, at a brokered convention, Paul might have additional leverage by threatening to run as a third-party candidate.

Given that the convention will take place just two months before the general election, how many state ballots would Paul still be able to get on? And, how difficult would it be to get him on the ballot as a third-party candidate at that late date? Obviously, the more states where that will still be possible, the more credible the threat to bolt will be.

Hi Berin,

Good to see you here. The Ohio Reform Party (which does not have ballot status) has already endorsed Dr. Paul. The Libertarian, Constitution, Reform, Independent (NY/MN) and other parties will nominate their respective nominees before the Republicans convene.

[Bradley in DC]

"Pure" Winner Take All States. There are six states, I think, where the top votegetter statewide is awarded all the delegates. Those represent strong possibilities for us. If we can be the top vote getter in these states -- we get all their delegates.

Missouri (Open Primary)
New Jersey (Modified Open (Independents can vote))
New York (Closed Primary)
Utah (Modified)
Virginia (Open)
Vermont (Open)

DC is a winner-take-all "state" for the purposes of this rule (actually all 19 delegates are "bound" to the winner, not just the 16 "elected" ones). Check on the territories too!

[CelestialRender]

I am quite confident that by mid-January, these kind of threads will no longer be necessary.

Nuff said.

[hueylong]

Celestial -- I need to respectfully disagree, even if I am hanging out in Lafayette, LA also...

While we will certainly continue to make progress, garnering a majority of delegates in states is going to be tough for every campaign. Including ours.

Huey