New Rasmussen Poll Huckabee 1st Place - Ron @ 7 percent

[AlexMerced]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[AlexMerced]

everyone is under 20% of the vote, this is out chance

[ronpaulyourmom]

Yeah the race has really tightened...

Ron Paul is at 7%, lets see if that holds or increases going into the weekend.

[AlexMerced]

I predict 8-9% by friday, you heard it here first, Giuliani in third by the end of the week

[werdd]

The perfect storm, pretty soon they will all be within the margin of error, and we are gonna have a much better turnout than them... keep it up we are gonna win this thing.

[paulitics]

This is kind of where you want it to be, because these guys will canabalize each other in the last reamining weeks, resulting in lower turnout.

[AlexMerced]

This is kind of where you want it to be, because these guys will canabalize each other in the last reamining weeks, resulting in lower turnout.

word

[Badger Paul]

It's incredible when you think about it. Everyone under 20 percent. Truly a fluid situation.

[AlexMerced]

yep, it's anybodies ballgame, turnout is really gonna decide this, which is good for us :)

[Primbs]

All the anti tax groups are going to turn their fire power on Huckabee. Also the anti illegal immigration groups will go after Huckabee. Watch him drop in the polls when this starts.

[Zydeco]

This is kind of where you want it to be, because these guys will canabalize each other in the last reamining weeks, resulting in lower turnout.


agreed

[Johnnybags]

and they all lose two more points in another week to us. Huck is being propped up to beat Mitt for Ghouls. Its a Ghouls,Huck ticket they want. Buchanan predicted it months ago, send money to Huck and tell the pollsters in Iowa Huck if you want Rudy, because Rudy cannot compete in Iowa. Its all a game. We are in good shape to keep gaining. Paul should go there and promise farmers export markets, and the first one Cuba. End the embargo and Isolationist policies.

[Voluntaryist]

I predict 8-9% by friday, you heard it here first, Giuliani in third by the end of the week

Oh please God, PLEASE!!!! I wanna see that bald lisping bastard implode already.

[margomaps]

Oh please God, PLEASE!!!! I wanna see that bald lisping bastard implode already.

I can't stand Giuliani either. But I refrain from ad hominem attacks that insult bald people, and people who happen to have a lisp. ;)

Heck, if I were an implosion, I'd even be insulted by the comparison to Giuliani. :D

[xd9fan]

turnout is really gonna decide this, which is good for us
thats our ace in the hole

[CJLauderdale4]

It's like sitting in the back of a race, keeping up with the pace while the frontrunners bang each other around and expend all of their resources trying to be in 1st place.

Then, in the final turn,...Ron Paul!!

The Tea Party will overwhlemingly help Ron Paul gain all of those people teetering with the thought that "He'll never win..."

[ronpaulyourmom]

I predict 8-9% by friday, you heard it here first, Giuliani in third by the end of the week

I'll give you 8% by the weekend, but not 9%.

[jaumen]

This is incredibly encouraging to me, especially in my feelings that the polls are biased against Ron Paul. It's truly anyone's game. I'll be happy to some extent as long as Giuliani keeps falling.... I don't want there to be any chance of that guy ever being President.

[acstichter]

Is this national? THX

[Talldude1412]

This is incredibly encouraging to me, especially in my feelings that the polls are biased against Ron Paul. It's truly anyone's game. I'll be happy to some extent as long as Giuliani keeps falling.... I don't want there to be any chance of that guy ever being President.

I think the biggest problem with the polls is that they include a couple hundred "likely" Republican voters. In other words people who have voted previously for the republican ticket. This would then inherently not include the young vote, or the recent return to politics vote, or the party swapping vote. I really think Paul is much closer to the front than the media realizes. But the only way to prove that is to put up in the primaries.

[AlexMerced]

I think the biggest problem with the polls is that they include a couple hundred "likely" Republican voters. In other words people who have voted previously for the republican ticket. This would then inherently not include the young vote, or the recent return to politics vote, or the party swapping vote. I really think Paul is much closer to the front than the media realizes. But the only way to prove that is to put up in the primaries.

we all have had that conersation about poll methodology... it's old... whether it's accurate or not, the media eats these up, and it's a good baraometer on how they are going to treat people.

[Ron LOL]

I would vote for Hillary Clinton before I'd ever vote for Mike Huckabee.

Of course, I'd slit my wrists right afterwards.

[angrydragon]

Romney and the ghoul must be ticked off, spending all this money and being beat by Huckabee.

[jumpyg1258]

I would vote for Hillary Clinton before I'd ever vote for Mike Huckabee.

Of course, I'd slit my wrists right afterwards.

I would rather vote 3rd party than for either of those two douches.

[jaumen]

I would vote for Hillary Clinton before I'd ever vote for Mike Huckabee.

Of course, I'd slit my wrists right afterwards.

Haha :) Well played... well played ;)

Yeah there is no one else I will vote for. Even if I knew for a fact Ron Paul would not win, I would still vote for him.

[Paulitician]

Nationwide. Interesting. To me this shows just how fickle these candidates are... it's all about image and mainstream media exposure. I'll be glad when CfG/THM start attack ads. I still think we need to boost name recognition and awareness of our candidate's message more. Otherwise we can't win. Our main focus has to be Iowa. If we don't get at least 3rd, nevermind how well we do in NH [as it will all be for naught a la Buchanan and McCain], we are most likely done for.

[AgentPaul001]

Wow, this helps us though Nationally if the race is so fractured. If we can get 8% by this following Monday we will still be on track for over 10% Nationally when NH/Iowa hit and we'll be in very good positions.

[AlexMerced]

just keep you feet on the ground and contue to write letters and knock on doors and we'll get there people

[margomaps]

I think the biggest problem with the polls is that they include a couple hundred "likely" Republican voters. In other words people who have voted previously for the republican ticket.

Interesting. Have any evidence to back up this claim?

[nbhadja]

Interesting. Have any evidence to back up this claim?

It's true. It says that in every description of the polls.

[Johnnybags]

http://re3.mm-a6.yimg.com/image/3674312269

[JeffersonThomas]

It seems to me that if Dr. Paul is climbing in Poll numbers among die hard, previously voting republicans then that is good news. I'm fairly confident this means war-hawks are being converted. I can only imagine how he's spreading like wildfire among the not-so-usually involved ones.

[wgadget]

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/webcast.php

[AlexMerced]

It's true. It says that in every description of the polls.

yes, we all know this, but again,it's stilla good baraometer of the base of consistent republican voters, if we can win them over with our current base of independents, youth, and disenfranchised voters it will be a huge landslide victory so

DON'T TAKE THE POLL LIGHTLY

IMHO RasmussenReports.com seems to have the most effective results and methodology, it moves with event pretty well and predicatbly

[margomaps]

It's true. It says that in every description of the polls.

The descriptions of the methodology of the polls do not say "This poll consists of people who have voted previously for the republican ticket." The descriptions say "Among likely Republican primary voters."

Do you know how polling companies determine who is a "likely Republican primary voter?"

[wgadget]

The descriptions of the methodology of the polls do not say "This poll consists of people who have voted previously for the republican ticket." The descriptions say "Among likely Republican primary voters."

Do you know how polling companies determine who is a "likely Republican primary voter?"

I'm afraid to ask...

[Paulitician]

I don't think it matters if it's only Bush Republicans who are being polled. You can rationalize all you want, but it's not going to matter to your average, ignorant American. Perception is everything. Unless and until we get at least 15% or so, we can't possibly expect to win with the amount of sheeple out there. I'm sure it is possible to win, but just remember that the odds are against us. Don't ever think we have the nomination "locked up," some serious work needs to be done first, and unless we get 3rd in Iowa, you can pretty much write the possibility of winning off.

[jaumen]

What I still consider to be among the highest reasons to be optimistic.... most republicans I talk to still don't know who they are going to support. Those who disagree with Paul's views can't decide who to support... and that makes our job all the easier.

[FreedomLover]

Ron Paul got really lucky this campaign season. This is one of the weaker republican fields I've seen. There will be very small differences in percentages during the primaries between 1st and third.

[margomaps]

Do you know how polling companies determine who is a "likely Republican primary voter?"

I'm afraid to ask...

I'll take that as an invitation to answer. :D

Most of the time, they have a computer generate random phone numbers in a certain area. When someone picks up the phone, they start the poll by asking if the person is planning on voting in the Democratic or Republican primary, or neither. Those who answer "Republican primary" are then asked some questions about which candidates they prefer.

Contrast this with the absurdity of making a statement like "Those polling companies just call from a list of people who voted for Bush in the 2004 primary."

[jgmaynard]

I get telephone surveyed quite often, and it's almost always "Are you a registered voter? How likely are you to vote this coming election? How are you registered? Which primary are you voting in? and For whom are you voting?"
Now that may be cause of NH's open primary, but I do question whether us 44% of Independents are getting grouped in with the "likely Republican voters" or not...

JM

[Paulite5112007]

I'll take that as an invitation to answer. :D

Most of the time, they have a computer generate random phone numbers in a certain area. When someone picks up the phone, they start the poll by asking if the person is planning on voting in the Democratic or Republican primary, or neither. Those who answer "Republican primary" are then asked some questions about which candidates they prefer.

That would actually be VERY innefficient. Consider if that is what they did, they would make 20 calls and get 1 or 2 that they could use in the data - thats a complete waste of time, resources and doesnt use all available information. Fortunately, they use federal and state maintained voter databases to prescreen for likely voters to increase the likelyhood that someone they call will be voting. Now, when calling 20 people, they are likely to get 18 that say they will be voting.

[Paulite5112007]

I'll take that as an invitation to answer. :D

Most of the time, they have a computer generate random phone numbers in a certain area. When someone picks up the phone, they start the poll by asking if the person is planning on voting in the Democratic or Republican primary, or neither. Those who answer "Republican primary" are then asked some questions about which candidates they prefer.

That would actually be VERY innefficient. Consider if that is what they did, they would make 20 calls and get 1 or 2 that they could use in the data - thats a complete waste of time, resources and doesnt use all available information. Fortunately, they use federal and state maintained voter databases to prescreen for likely voters to increase the likelyhood that someone they call will be voting. Now, when calling 20 people, they are likely to get 18 that say they will be voting.

EDIT: Not all of them do this, database lists are not free.

[BillyDkid]

This is incredibly encouraging to me, especially in my feelings that the polls are biased against Ron Paul. It's truly anyone's game. I'll be happy to some extent as long as Giuliani keeps falling.... I don't want there to be any chance of that guy ever being President.But doesn't it drive you up the wall the way the media has turned Huckabee into a serious candidate? It sure does me and it's just not fair. The media touts you as a serious contender and suddenly you become one.

[margomaps]

That would actually be VERY innefficient. Consider if that is what they did, they would make 20 calls and get 1 or 2 that they could use in the data - thats a complete waste of time, resources and doesnt use all available information. Fortunately, they use federal and state maintained voter databases to prescreen for likely voters to increase the likelyhood that someone they call will be voting. Now, when calling 20 people, they are likely to get 18 that say they will be voting.

Random digit dialing may be "inefficient", but it's one of the best methods to ensure the randomness of the sample, and hence the likelihood that the sample is representative of the population. Don't take it up with me. Take it up with some of the most reputable polling companies -- like Gallup -- who use this method. That's why your use of the subjunctive (i.e., "would be inefficient") is entirely inappropriate and incorrect.

Do you know what else pollsters do to make sure the sample is random? They ask to speak to the adult in the house with the most recent birthday.

I'm sorry if you disagree with empirically verified survey techniques. It probably explains why you don't work for Gallup. ;)

[margomaps]

I get telephone surveyed quite often, and it's almost always "Are you a registered voter? How likely are you to vote this coming election? How are you registered? Which primary are you voting in? and For whom are you voting?"
Now that may be cause of NH's open primary, but I do question whether us 44% of Independents are getting grouped in with the "likely Republican voters" or not...

I'm not sure why you say that. If that is the line of questioning you receive, it seems like it's explicitly designed to include independents. Not sure why this makes you question whether independents are being accounted for.

As an aside, it's somewhat of a statistical anomaly that you're getting telephone surveys quite often. Since you're in NH and a Ron Paul supporter, it makes me suspect that NH's Ron Paul numbers are artificially high. ;)

[nbhadja]

But doesn't it drive you up the wall the way the media has turned Huckabee into a serious candidate? It sure does me and it's just not fair. The media touts you as a serious contender and suddenly you become one.

The media also pumped up julyannie, Thompson, McCain and they eventually fizzled out

[Primbs]

But doesn't it drive you up the wall the way the media has turned Huckabee into a serious candidate? It sure does me and it's just not fair. The media touts you as a serious contender and suddenly you become one.

Huckabee was on the front page of USA Today yesterday with a picture. That is why we need the money bomb and blimp. We are in a competition with the other campaigns to get media exposure. Since we are down in the polls but rising, we need the blimp to capture the media's attention and shine it back on Ron Paul.

[mconder]

I knew that Huckabee would pull this off months ago, as long as Romney and Guiliani kept digging a hole for each other. We need to see Huckabee as threat number one from here on out. This is a good development in that it gets everyone else under 20%

[mconder]

We are in a competition with the other campaigns to get media exposure.

Can anyone explain to me why the hell he gets exposure after raising a pitiful amount of cash? After all, this exposure is why he is enjoying high poll numbers.

[AlexMerced]

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/13_Ron_Paul_the_Tortoise_Huckabee_the_Hare digg this to help framing the election as Huckabee vs. Paul

[jaumen]

But doesn't it drive you up the wall the way the media has turned Huckabee into a serious candidate? It sure does me and it's just not fair. The media touts you as a serious contender and suddenly you become one.

It does. His campaign has definitely been given manufactured success... but the positive side is... that additional polls came from somewhere other than undecided voters... as is evidenced by the drop in the polls of the Giuliani and others.... and it was not taken from Ron Paul, who continues to had a steady, if somewhat slow, gain. If Huckabee tops out now, his campaign has done us a great service... he dilluted the vote enough to make our 7 percent appear quite viable.

[rasheedwallace]

the 16th is so important...

[AlexMerced]

The election in the mainstream media built by framing and perception, let's use Huckabees status as front runner to our advantage. let's mobilize blogs and press releases that frame the election as boiling down to a Huckabee vs. Paul show-off. To position Paul against Huckabee in the mainstream persons mind is to position him as a front runner. Digg the articles below which are good examples of this.

It's like anything, if you hear it enough it starts to sound true, let's use the MSM tactics againt them and help create the perception of this showdown of two underdog frontrunners.

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/13_Ron_Paul_the_Tortoise_Huckabee_the_Hare

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/11_Ron_Paul_vs_Mike_Huckabee

How to do this:

- Write Editorials to your local papers about Huckabee vs. Paul

- Write and Publish Blogs Huckabee vs. Paul

- DIGG DIGG DIGG

- When talking to your more politcally apathetic friends frame it this way, you may sound more credible for mentioning other candidates

The point is to frame these two in so Paul becomes a viable option to the mainstream mind, and the rest become has beens. Emphasize Huckabees weak points on taxes, national sales tax, and of course point them toward the rolling stone article.

[fcofer]

Can anyone explain to me why the hell he gets exposure after raising a pitiful amount of cash? After all, this exposure is why he is enjoying high poll numbers.

Well, he jumped in the polls after the debates. Like it or not, Huckabee greatly appeals to Southern evangelical Christians. I predict that he will take #1 or #2 (hopefully to Paul!) in the Southern states. People hear him and like him immediately, and many of the evangelical voters don't care much about his issue positions, beyond (1) pro-life and (2) pro-marriage.

He's definitely our greatest threat, especially since he's not as milquetoast as the other Republican adversaries. I hope that Romney takes him down a few pegs. No matter what, Huck is going to get most of the evangelical vote, but that's not enough to win. The attacks that are on the horizon will probably cut out a lot of his support from fiscal conservatives.

[jumpyg1258]

More and more everyday the MSM proves to me they pull these poll numbers out of their arse.

[Mitt Romneys sideburns]

We are in a competition with the other campaigns to get media exposure.

Can anyone explain to me why the hell he gets exposure after raising a pitiful amount of cash? After all, this exposure is why he is enjoying high poll numbers.

The news has been shoving him in our faces all year. He gets a lot of media exposure.

[DRV45N05]

This is good. However, I'm not sure where they will be tomorrow. I think if he has another day like the past couple of days, he'll either probably remain at 7% or drop back down to 6%.

However, this race is WIDE-OPEN! First through sixth is separated by ELEVEN POINTS! That's rediculously tight. We can pull this off.

And I trust Rasmussen's national polls more than anyone else's. (I don't trust their state polls as much, though)

[Mitt Romneys sideburns]

Huckabee is in 1st,

We are backing off on Iran

We dont talk about Iraq anymore

. . .


What is going on here?

[bgky4paul]

This is all coming together perfectly. Huck is peaking too early for the primaries.

[AlexMerced]

my fear that Thompson has been quiet waiting for the other four to canibalize each other

[JaylieWoW]

I would vote for Hillary Clinton before I'd ever vote for Mike Huckabee.

Of course, I'd slit my wrists right afterwards.

:p

[LibertyEagle]

Is Ron planning on going there anytime at all????

[Paulitician]

Is Ron planning on going there anytime at all????
He should be, and he should be making sure the anti-War Republicans in that state turn out to vote for him at the caucus

[ionlyknowy]

once we get that blimp in the air and the 16th nuclear blast goes off on RP's website, then it's all over...

Imagine the media coverage... "RP the only candidate with his own blimp!" "RP raises $8million in one day, this is more than half of the Top Tier raised in an entire quarter"

This will make all of the people that keep saying we are a long shot look really stupid.

[Jodi]

This is incredibly encouraging to me, especially in my feelings that the polls are biased against Ron Paul. It's truly anyone's game. I'll be happy to some extent as long as Giuliani keeps falling.... I don't want there to be any chance of that guy ever being President.

I liked what I heard on Rush today about polls. Some guy was talking to his team(I think). He had footage of a horse race and showed them the film 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 of the way throught the race. At each increment he told them to pick the winners. Some changed their first choice. some kept the first choice yadda yadda. The point was you really can't pick the winner of the race at any of the levels until the race is over.

[AlexMerced]

Amen Sister

[honkywill]

Imagine how Ron might do after he gets that hour of Glenn Beck(he can only make gains) and if he takes Chris Matthews up on that other hour, and the TEA PARTY!

If we poll @ 12% I think we can have this thing wrapped up.

[jgmaynard]

I'm not sure why you say that. If that is the line of questioning you receive, it seems like it's explicitly designed to include independents. Not sure why this makes you question whether independents are being accounted for.


Logically, that line of questioning can allow you to infer to things: Registered Reps voting for Ron or the number of Registered Rs + Inds voting R voting for Ron. Therefore, my question remains: I wonder which of those two they are using.



As an aside, it's somewhat of a statistical anomaly that you're getting telephone surveys quite often. Since you're in NH and a Ron Paul supporter, it makes me suspect that NH's Ron Paul numbers are artificially high. ;)

Illogical. First, any random sampling would, by definition, include some Ron Paul supporters. Second, I'm not receiving more than I have in other years, and some are surveying Dem preference. I"m getting calls like I do every two years because I live in NH. If you live here, I'm sure you get them too. :)

JM

[Qiu]

Now, given that Paul supporters are more enthusiastic, would have a higher turnout rate, and isn't a poll defined "Republican likely to vote in the primaries".... I'd say we're competitive with any of them.

[AlexMerced]

never hurts to have an extra lead