Bradley in DC
12-03-2007, 11:16 PM
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/12/03/beware_of_iowa_polls.html
Beware of Iowa Polls
Walter Shapiro, who has covered eight presidential campaigns, warns against reading to much into the latest polls coming out of Iowa.
"There is no such thing as a reliable poll a month before the Iowa caucuses, because no one -- from top campaign insiders to the lowliest reporters -- has any idea who will participate. Everyone has self-serving guesses, but that is all they are. In fact, it is still too early for pollsters to employ what may be the best gauge for identifying likely caucusgoers: asking voters whether they know where to go on Jan. 3. But the state Democratic Party only released its 43-page list of caucus sites (nearly 1,200 separate locations) earlier this week, so that predictive question" has not been asked yet.
In another must-read post, Shapiro notes "the odds are about seven-to-one against a typical Iowa voter participating in the caucuses."
Beware of Iowa Polls
Walter Shapiro, who has covered eight presidential campaigns, warns against reading to much into the latest polls coming out of Iowa.
"There is no such thing as a reliable poll a month before the Iowa caucuses, because no one -- from top campaign insiders to the lowliest reporters -- has any idea who will participate. Everyone has self-serving guesses, but that is all they are. In fact, it is still too early for pollsters to employ what may be the best gauge for identifying likely caucusgoers: asking voters whether they know where to go on Jan. 3. But the state Democratic Party only released its 43-page list of caucus sites (nearly 1,200 separate locations) earlier this week, so that predictive question" has not been asked yet.
In another must-read post, Shapiro notes "the odds are about seven-to-one against a typical Iowa voter participating in the caucuses."