Iowa- The Sleeper State?

[0zzy]

I've been hearing a lot of murmurs from the media saying, "Watch out for Ron Paul in Iowa". It's like I'm hearing an old lady in the ally during a dark night tell me something that's about to happen, a premonition.

How well are we gonna do in Iowa? It feels like something might just sneak up on us and surprise us with some big win.

[Ethek]

Depends on the weather.

[Paulitician]

5th if we don't step it up

[Forefall]

I think Ron Paul voters are more likely to "tough it out" through a blizzard than the other's lackeys.

[Hope]

I hope we do well. It helps that Ron Paul is asking students to spend either before or after Christmas in Iowa, and he'll pay for all the food, gas, lodging, etc. expenses just so students can go door to door!

[ross11988]

Depends on the weather.

Pray for alot of snow.

[derdy]

What gives me a lot of hope is that I know people who are wanting to get Ron elected are very dedicated and at the very least will make it to the primaries. I don't think the same can be said about the other candidates' supporters.

[MozoVote]

Iowa is famous for being a place where motivated people can surge at the last minute. This gives an edge to Huckabee with all his evangelical support, but I don't think a 2nd place for Ron can be ruled out. Think of the Iowa caucus as a huge straw poll. We know how THOSE have gone.

In any case, 5th or better is at least something ... because it means Ron forced one of the "mainstream" candidates under him.

[risiusj]

Depends on the weather.

QFT. Blizzard like conditions would mean that the old crowd that is infatuated with Fox News would stay home. But then, of course, the media would just spin it and say that the turnout was super low, and Ron Paul doesn't have the support to actually win a primary/caucus. They won't acknowledge him until he sweeps all the primaries up to Super Tuesday.

[margomaps]

I have a lot of faith in Ron, but relatively little faith in most of the voters of Iowa. They're falling for Huckabee afterall. :rolleyes:

I'm thinking a 5th or 4th finish in Iowa, realistically. NH I think 3rd or better is possible. If new, credible polls come out before Jan 3rd that show Paul at closer to 10%, then obviously I'd guess his chances would improve.

[ProfNo]

I think if everything goes well, Paul can get third---this would be a win for the campaign.

If we get second, it will be a VERY big deal.

Unfortunately, I think Huck will get first...but he will flop in NH.

[adpierce]

We still need to do two things to make sure Ron Paul wins the caucus and they're pretty much common sense.

1. Win more people to the Ron Paul cause by getting his name out here. There are still plenty who don't even know the name Ron Paul, and of those who do many don't know exactly what he stands for.

2. Get the supporters to show up on Caucus day .... NO MATTER WHAT!

Do those two things... we win

[M.Bellmore]

What the heck. We need a #1 in NH!

Are the polls for caucus states more accurate than general election states, since they # of ppl that attend are restricted?

[BLS]

I truly think Ron can WIN NH. Anything better than 5th in Iowa is an improvement over the Iowa Straw Poll, and can be considered a win.

[adpierce]

I truly think Ron can WIN NH. Anything better than 5th in Iowa is an improvement over the Iowa Straw Poll, and can be considered a win.


I beg to differ. Fifth included a candidate above Paul who withdrew his candidacy.. Brownback. Anything above 4th is considered a win in Iowa. Which means he's gotta get 3rd or better in Iowa.

[Cowlesy]

Does anyone have any ideas of what the paid staff out in Iowa is doing? Are they doing any outreach? Anything?

[Cunningham]

There is a bowl game that night. Hopefully people stay home. Plus, this Huck stuff is just another flavor of the week. Romney is going to hammer him and this "tax Hike Mike" stuff is going to kill him over the next couple weeks. I'm not sure the evangelicals will switch to Ron but hopefully they stay home and watch the Orange Bowl.

[MozoVote]

I beg to differ. Fifth included a candidate above Paul who withdrew his candidacy.. Brownback. Anything above 4th is considered a win in Iowa. Which means he's gotta get 3rd or better in Iowa.


Brownback Out. Thompson In.

If Ron gets a 5th place again, then he had to put at least one lamestream candidate under him.

Hunter and Tancredo are almost a given for 7th and 8th. Probably McCain or Thompson next for 6th.

[adpierce]

Does anyone have any ideas of what the paid staff out in Iowa is doing? Are they doing any outreach? Anything?

They're actively doing a calling campaign, they got signs out on Major highways and throughout the state, they help organize events when Ron Paul comes to town. They're helping to find people in Iowa with room for people to stay who are from out of state to help campaign in Iowa during December.

[nist7]

Depends on the weather.

EXACTLY.

Blistering blizzard = good.

Warm sunny day = bad.

[Harry96]

Brownback Out. Thompson In.

If Ron gets a 5th place again, then he had to put at least one lamestream candidate under him.

Hunter and Tancredo are almost a given for 7th and 8th. Probably McCain or Thompson next for 6th.

Haha, lamestream.

[adpierce]

Brownback Out. Thompson In.

If Ron gets a 5th place again, then he had to put at least one lamestream candidate under him.

Hunter and Tancredo are almost a given for 7th and 8th. Probably McCain or Thompson next for 6th.

I don't believe Thompson has much in the way of an organization here in Iowa. I seriously doubt he'll be able to get people out to vote for him on caucus day unless he decides to unload all his money in Iowa during this last month. He'll spend his money in the south where he has a better chance.

[honkywill]

I hope the weather is absolutely horrible.

[Harry96]

I'm still not convinced by polls. In this excellent look at Iowa, Murray Sabin points out that Gephardt was leading Iowa in mid-Dec. 2003, while Kerry was at 4%, which is lower than Paul is now. But Kerry won and Gephardt came in 4th:

http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=184672

[adpierce]

I hope the weather is absolutely horrible.

Wouldn't it be better if we totally dominated during sunshine and temperate weather? I know it's optimistic, but if we really fight for Iowa we can do this!

[Ethek]

I'm still not convinced by polls. In this excellent look at Iowa, Murray Sabin points out that Gephardt was leading Iowa in mid-Dec. 2003, while Kerry was at 4%, which is lower than Paul is now. But Kerry won and Gephardt came in 4th:

http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=184672

I've heard this. My concern is something I vaguely recall about the structure of the caucuses being changed. I think before, people were allowed to give speeches that might have been able to influence other delegates before the voting. Is that still the case?

[0zzy]

I'm still not convinced by polls. In this excellent look at Iowa, Murray Sabin points out that Gephardt was leading Iowa in mid-Dec. 2003, while Kerry was at 4%, which is lower than Paul is now. But Kerry won and Gephardt came in 4th:

http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=184672

Indeed, but you don't think any establishment had any part of that? :]. Plus, I saw those debates, Gephardt bore me to death. Though Kerry did, too. Dennis K. was the only one who I found interesting, even Dean was boring. All of them were saying stay in Iraq,

say...nothing much has changed has it? :)

[MozoVote]

I thought the whole point of the caucus is that people meet, and discuss their preferences before voting. It's a community discussion.

[0zzy]

I've heard this. My concern is something I vaguely recall about the structure of the caucuses being changed. I think before, people were allowed to give speeches that might have been able to influence other delegates before the voting. Is that still the case?

I believe so. If that is the case, we will have way more votes :].

[nullzero]

Good possibility we can get a winter storm... looking through some historic weather data on Iowa, they have major winter storms quite frequently around jan. 1st -6th.

[Ron Paul Fan]

There is a big debate on December 12th. Dr. Paul will need to be on the top of his game for that one as it will be broadcast state wide. Hopefully this is when Romney attacks Huckabee! The Iowa Republican Caucus I believe is run much like a straw poll. There are 180 or so different precincts around the state where people come and vote. The Democratic Caucus is run a little differently.

[Cunningham]

I'm still not convinced by polls. In this excellent look at Iowa, Murray Sabin points out that Gephardt was leading Iowa in mid-Dec. 2003, while Kerry was at 4%, which is lower than Paul is now. But Kerry won and Gephardt came in 4th:

http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=184672

I read somewhere that the democrat caucus has some weird rules that involve vote trading. If your canidate can't meet some vote threshold then they negotiate to have your votes go to a different canidate. THe other guys threw there votes to Kerry to beat Dean I believe. The republicans don't have those rules. It kind of makes Kerry beating his poll numbers kind of irrelevent. Someone from Iowa might have a better understanding of how that all works.

[majinkoola]

From here - http://www.rhodescook.com/analysis/presidential_primaries/iowa/gop.html

In 2000,

3rd place was 12,268 caucus goers.
4th place was 7,323 caucus goers.
5th place was 4,045 caucus goers.

With the support already in Iowa, the 150 students going there on winter break to campaign, and the other numerous grassroots activities, I see no reason RP cannot reach that 3rd place level at the very least.

[leonster]

I believe so. If that is the case, we will have way more votes :].

Sounds good to me... if anyone out there is reading this from Iowa, be ready to be persuasive on Caucus Day! Start reading up on how to convert others...

I know my family back home, political junkies, lifelong Republicans, Bush supporters, are pretty unenthusiastic about the field of Republicans. They aren't Ron Paul supporters... yet... but they certainly don't care much for any of the "front-runners." That says something about the potential for low turnout, I think, for the "front-running" candidates... really, most of these candidates make a pretty weak field.

Weak candidates splitting the vote + 1 candidate with a small but STRONG and dedicated following could = big upsets, in MANY states.

Also... most candidates tend to drop out pretty quickly if they don't win the first few states, because their supporters disappear. I don't think we're going anywhere. Even if we don't do so well at first... the later primaries that get low turnout b/c of ppl thinking their vote won't matter... well, I'm betting the Ron Paul supporters WILL still turn out!

[Goldwater Conservative]

I think a very likely scenario is that Huckabee has a weak win over Romney (under 30% total and in first by only a few points), with Paul getting a respectable third over Giuliani. Then even second place in NH is a win for us, since Romney was deprived of his precious twofer. Paul would be THE big story, having beaten three of the five frontrunners both times and another one once.

A few more embarrassments for Giuliani after that and his poll numbers deflate in Florida, which has a ripple effect through the Tsunami Tuesday states he'd been counting on. Huckabee is unable to take off anywhere else (surprise, surprise), McCain has to drop out after being repeatedly trounced by the anti-war candidate he tried to stake his fortunes on a few weeks earlier, Romney's money (which is the only reason he had "support" in those early states) has been wasted and proven insufficient, and Thompson remains asleep.

Hillary has long since locked up her nomination, so many independents in open primaries and Democrats making same-day registration changes in the states where they can start flocking to Paul in the GOP primaries, a few to throw a wrench in the opposition's works but most out of sincerity. Before anyone realizes what's happened, Paul has just schooled Clinton for the third general election debate in a row and Wolf Blitzer is on TV reporting Paul's presidential inauguration as "amazing, amazing."

Sorry, I got a little carried away there. :)

[RockEnds]

The press has been acting strangely. It's almost as if they think there's a risk we could . . . place third. :rolleyes: I dunno. It's not January yet. So much WILL change between now and then. Politics can get ugly this time of year.

[leonster]

From here - http://www.rhodescook.com/analysis/presidential_primaries/iowa/gop.html

In 2000,

3rd place was 12,268 caucus goers.
4th place was 7,323 caucus goers.
5th place was 4,045 caucus goers.

With the support already in Iowa, the 150 students going there on winter break to campaign, and the other numerous grassroots activities, I see no reason RP cannot reach that 3rd place level at the very least.

150 students going? Awesome... can we get more? Students--think of this as not only a great volunteer effort, but also simply as FUN! With a hundred or few hundred there, you could have GREAT chances to meet people and hang out... kinda a work-hard daytime attitude, party-hard nighttime attitude. Spend the day doing volunteer work, canvassing, working at malls... spend the night out at the local bar with some other cool Ron Paul supporters you've met, have some drinks, and continue chatting with the other people at the bar about Ron Paul in a more casual setting.

[Shaun]

He'll come in the top two in IOWA.
Done deal.
Independants, Democrats and non religious Conservatives who are against the war.
No problem..

[dante]

150 students going? Awesome... can we get more? Students--think of this as not only a great volunteer effort, but also simply as FUN! With a hundred or few hundred there, you could have GREAT chances to meet people and hang out... kinda a work-hard daytime attitude, party-hard nighttime attitude. Spend the day doing volunteer work, canvassing, working at malls... spend the night out at the local bar with some other cool Ron Paul supporters you've met, have some drinks, and continue chatting with the other people at the bar about Ron Paul in a more casual setting.

I'm one of the students going... and we've been told no alcohol (at least not to bring any). Its pretty much campaign, eat, sleep, repeat... for 9-10 days.

[MozoVote]

On top of all this, Y2000 was an election that interested people more. I think it's quite plausible that the vote counts will be 80% of what they were then, from lack of enthusiasm for the other candidates.

A turnout of 10,000 could be enough to get a 3rd place.

[austin356]

I have a lot of faith in Ron, but relatively little faith in most of the voters of Iowa. They're falling for Huckabee afterall. :rolleyes:

I'm thinking a 5th or 4th finish in Iowa, realistically. NH I think 3rd or better is possible. If new, credible polls come out before Jan 3rd that show Paul at closer to 10%, then obviously I'd guess his chances would improve.



3rd in NH?

If we dont win there; The election for us is OVER. No chance. I am also going to step down my active support and concentrate on other personal activities, if he does not win there.


People we are in more of a dire situation than you might think. More is on the line for the first two elections than you think. If we dont get 3rd in Iowa, 1st in NH, and place really really high in NV and SC, it is over.

[Paulitician]

Even if we get first an NH, which I think we will, if we don't get AT LEAST 3rd in Iowa, we are done for, and the whole campaign will turn out to be a joke. Have people heard the message yet? Do the voters of Iowa understand how honest and knowledgable Ron Paul on the issues? Do they know how consistent Ron Paul is? I reckon, if every voter had the knowledge we do, Ron Paul would win in a landslide. But obviously, they have no idea who Ron Paul is and what he stands for...

We MUST get at least 3rd in Iowa. Thankfully, I've been hearing good things recently that Ron Paul could come in 3rd, but I'm still unconvinced. All signs point to him getting 5th.

[JimDude]

I agree with above posts, that we need to get 1st in Nh badly or its over.

We need to be shooting for 3rd in Iowa

[MozoVote]

I have always said there is more at stake here than coming on strong in IA or NH. Ron Paul should hammer the NeoCons with his message all the way to South Dakota (the last state). Don't let them have the election easily. Gather up as many LOUD, VOCAL delegates as he can for the convention.

If we don't win, try to keep the coalition together and vote 3rd party. (Maybe one that Ron endorses but does not lead.) Don't let the establishment think they have co-opted everyone and penned us back in.