LizF
12-03-2007, 06:06 PM
Candidates smother Iowans with robocalls & hard-sell campaigning
BY HELEN KENNEDY
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER
Sunday, December 2nd 2007, 4:00 AM
DES MOINES - Every time Jennifer Stanley sits down to dinner with her family, Hillary Clinton interrupts with a phone call.
"Hillary's called my house 12 times so far. It gets old really, really fast," said Stanley, a 40-year-old teacher's aide from Urbandale. "I just hang up, but my son thinks its fun. He has fake conversations with her. He's 13."
Dennis Brennan, 52, who owns a meat company in Waterloo, said, "I want to rip the phone out of the wall. It's always Hillary, and it's always dinnertime."
Pre-recorded candidate "robocalls" are just part of the political pounding Iowans are taking in what is shaping up as the hardest-fought and costliest campaign here ever.
The one-month countdown to the caucus begins tomorrow, and as both parties' races tighten into tossups, the battle is only going to get more intense.
Already voters here have been wooed and polled and microtargeted and spammed.
"I can't wait for it to be over," said Ernie Kiley, 71, a retired city worker in Eagle Grove. "Every day there's new mail. I just rip it up. When they come on the TV, I flip away. Even if you aren't home when they call, they leave messages on your voice box. They even call on Sunday!"
The candidates are spending so much time and money in Iowa because everyone remembers how John Kerry's surprise victory here in 2004 vaulted him to the nomination.
According to polls, Democrats Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are in a virtual dead heat. Losing here would derail Clinton's juggernaut, revive questions about Obama's viability and all but cripple Edwards, an Iowa favorite since 2004. Longshots Joe Biden and Bill Richardson, whose résumés and personalities play well in Iowa, could shock one of the three leaders.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney spent as much as $7 million to cement an early and impregnable lead - one that is suddenly crumbling now that evangelical Christians have discovered puckish dark horse Mike Huckabee, who spent just $300,000. Rudy Giuliani, focusing on later contests, appears to be ceding third place to struggling Fred Thompson.
But the peculiarities of the caucus ritual make it hard to figure out who will actually drag themselves out on a frigid weekday night to spend an hour or two arguing politics with neighbors.
A candidate's supporters must stand together in groups, declaring their allegiances in front of their friends. Under the Democrats' rules, if a particular candidate gets less than 15% support, his or her followers must switch to someone else, making Iowa the only place where a voter's second choice actually matters.
The process is so tedious that turnout is generally under 10%, and sometimes half that. Jan. 3 is also the night of the Orange Bowl, so some football fans may stay home.
"I went in 2004 for the first time, but I'm not going back this year," said Brennan's wife, Sandi. "I thought I'd get some awesome feeling or something, but it was a letdown. It was boring. There was even paperwork!"
In such a fluid situation, polls can't predict what the Iowans will do.
Thirty days before the 2004 caucuses, Howard Dean was the clear Democratic favorite, both in Iowa and nationally. Kerry and Edwards lagged Al Sharpton's 5% in a CBS poll one month out. But they went on to romp home in first and second place and become the Democratic ticket.
Complicating matters further, caucusgoers tend to make up their minds late: In 2004, 42% said they decided in the campaign's final week.
This year's calendar heightens the uncertainty. Jan. 3 is the earliest caucus date ever, and it puts the homestretch between Christmas and New Year's.
"People are moving around, going to parties, getting together with family. They aren't going to be hot to pick up the phone, whether for a pollster or an advocacy call. There are going to be a lot of campaigns flying blind," said Thompson pollster John McLaughlin.
"Maybe that's why they won't leave us alone with the calls and the ads," said Rich Neumann, 42, a Fort Dodge exterminator. "They are trying to get the whole campaign in before Christmas."
Link: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2007/12/02/2007-12-02_candidates_smother_iowans_with_robocalls.html
BY HELEN KENNEDY
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER
Sunday, December 2nd 2007, 4:00 AM
DES MOINES - Every time Jennifer Stanley sits down to dinner with her family, Hillary Clinton interrupts with a phone call.
"Hillary's called my house 12 times so far. It gets old really, really fast," said Stanley, a 40-year-old teacher's aide from Urbandale. "I just hang up, but my son thinks its fun. He has fake conversations with her. He's 13."
Dennis Brennan, 52, who owns a meat company in Waterloo, said, "I want to rip the phone out of the wall. It's always Hillary, and it's always dinnertime."
Pre-recorded candidate "robocalls" are just part of the political pounding Iowans are taking in what is shaping up as the hardest-fought and costliest campaign here ever.
The one-month countdown to the caucus begins tomorrow, and as both parties' races tighten into tossups, the battle is only going to get more intense.
Already voters here have been wooed and polled and microtargeted and spammed.
"I can't wait for it to be over," said Ernie Kiley, 71, a retired city worker in Eagle Grove. "Every day there's new mail. I just rip it up. When they come on the TV, I flip away. Even if you aren't home when they call, they leave messages on your voice box. They even call on Sunday!"
The candidates are spending so much time and money in Iowa because everyone remembers how John Kerry's surprise victory here in 2004 vaulted him to the nomination.
According to polls, Democrats Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are in a virtual dead heat. Losing here would derail Clinton's juggernaut, revive questions about Obama's viability and all but cripple Edwards, an Iowa favorite since 2004. Longshots Joe Biden and Bill Richardson, whose résumés and personalities play well in Iowa, could shock one of the three leaders.
On the Republican side, Mitt Romney spent as much as $7 million to cement an early and impregnable lead - one that is suddenly crumbling now that evangelical Christians have discovered puckish dark horse Mike Huckabee, who spent just $300,000. Rudy Giuliani, focusing on later contests, appears to be ceding third place to struggling Fred Thompson.
But the peculiarities of the caucus ritual make it hard to figure out who will actually drag themselves out on a frigid weekday night to spend an hour or two arguing politics with neighbors.
A candidate's supporters must stand together in groups, declaring their allegiances in front of their friends. Under the Democrats' rules, if a particular candidate gets less than 15% support, his or her followers must switch to someone else, making Iowa the only place where a voter's second choice actually matters.
The process is so tedious that turnout is generally under 10%, and sometimes half that. Jan. 3 is also the night of the Orange Bowl, so some football fans may stay home.
"I went in 2004 for the first time, but I'm not going back this year," said Brennan's wife, Sandi. "I thought I'd get some awesome feeling or something, but it was a letdown. It was boring. There was even paperwork!"
In such a fluid situation, polls can't predict what the Iowans will do.
Thirty days before the 2004 caucuses, Howard Dean was the clear Democratic favorite, both in Iowa and nationally. Kerry and Edwards lagged Al Sharpton's 5% in a CBS poll one month out. But they went on to romp home in first and second place and become the Democratic ticket.
Complicating matters further, caucusgoers tend to make up their minds late: In 2004, 42% said they decided in the campaign's final week.
This year's calendar heightens the uncertainty. Jan. 3 is the earliest caucus date ever, and it puts the homestretch between Christmas and New Year's.
"People are moving around, going to parties, getting together with family. They aren't going to be hot to pick up the phone, whether for a pollster or an advocacy call. There are going to be a lot of campaigns flying blind," said Thompson pollster John McLaughlin.
"Maybe that's why they won't leave us alone with the calls and the ads," said Rich Neumann, 42, a Fort Dodge exterminator. "They are trying to get the whole campaign in before Christmas."
Link: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2007/12/02/2007-12-02_candidates_smother_iowans_with_robocalls.html