Paul has dropped off the map at Intrade.

[RevolutionSD]

Why?

Far surpassed money raised, crowds get bigger at every campaign stop, pulled an upset and won the VA straw poll....yet at Intrade, his numbers are worse than his poll numbers and they even give McCain a better chance at winning NH!

Something is up, I believe there must be major shorting going on by those interested in seeing Paul lose.

[Zydeco]

Agreed it's been suspicious for some time now. Anyone know how to tell if shorting is what's happening there?

[purepaloma]

Did I miss something or does Intrade elect the President ?

We need to get more NEW voters.

[Taco John]

Did I miss something or does Intrade elect the President ?

We need to get more NEW voters.


:rolleyes:

[JustBcuz]

Agreed it's been suspicious for some time now. Anyone know how to tell if shorting is what's happening there?

Get me a link & I'll take a look at it.

I'm familiar with stock charts & very familiar with sports wagering.

[michaelwise]

Romney money retaliation for booing Tagg off the stage in ST. Petersburg.

[fortilite]

Get angry about it, and use that anger to fuel your drive to write letters to Iowans.

[shadow26]

Agreed it's been suspicious for some time now. Anyone know how to tell if shorting is what's happening there?
The 'long knives' are out...MSN.com is trying to link Dr. Paul with David Duke at their newspage.

[RevolutionSD]

Did I miss something or does Intrade elect the President ?

We need to get more NEW voters.

Actually they've predicted like 13/14 elections or something correctly so yes, it's an important source.

[terlinguatx]

...

[voisine]

Intrade is a market. If you think their odds on Paul winning are low, there's an opportunity to make money. Place your bets.

[davidhperry]

Something is up, I believe there must be major shorting going on by those interested in seeing Paul lose.

That could be possible since it's a pretty illiquid market. The good thing is, those people will lose their money around the 16th because he should pop back up then.

[Goldwater Conservative]

If we had a national primary, I'd place more faith in them. As it stands, however, Giuliani is clearly overvalued when you look at how he's struggling to keep his head above water in many of the early states.

[akovacs]

Actually they've predicted like 13/14 elections or something correctly so yes, it's an important source.

Intrade isn't predicting anything. The price is based on supply/demand. We need a good shot in the arm to get that number high again.

[paulitics]

Why?

Far surpassed money raised, crowds get bigger at every campaign stop, pulled an upset and won the VA straw poll....yet at Intrade, his numbers are worse than his poll numbers and they even give McCain a better chance at winning NH!

Something is up, I believe there must be major shorting going on by those interested in seeing Paul lose.

Yeah, I've been paying attention to that. The day it peaked I was the day before Nov 5th. It was right after the Jay Leno show, it spiked to 9.2%.

It has been steady down since the 5th. Could be Huckabee, or maybe some people pulled out because of some negative coverage, like Glenn Beck, etc. I noticed that it dropped sharply right after the show was aired.

[brianbb98]

Did I miss something or does Intrade elect the President ?

We need to get more NEW voters.

Thank you. :)

[Mark Rushmore]

deleted

[voytechs]

Yeah, I've been paying attention to that. The day it peaked I was the day before Nov 5th. It was right after the Jay Leno show, it spiked to 9.2%.

It has been steady down since the 5th. Could be Huckabee, or maybe some people pulled out because of some negative coverage, like Glenn Beck, etc. I noticed that it dropped sharply right after the show was aired.

I think the market read into that expecting him to dramatically go up in polls. Because he didn't they've been selling it off. I think its a good time to buy.

[akovacs]

I'm buying some tonight. This price is too good right now.

[da32130]

The odds of winning the election are holding.

That makes the odds of him winning the election high, if he gets the nomination , as can be seen here:
http://ronpaulgraphs.com/intrade_electability_rep.html

[RevolutionSD]

it seems that intrade betters are relying heavily on poll numbers. Going long on Paul would not be a bad bet right now considering how wrong the polls have been in the past.

[JustBcuz]

If it's low, now would be a good time to buy and the sell into the news on Dec. 17th. More generally, that particular market isn't big enough to have its opinions discourage us. We could manipulate his price pretty much anywhere we liked by clearing out the 4-5k or whatever of existing contracts then setting the market between two accounts to where we like, and hemming it in till it either stagnates where we want it or legitimizes.

Exactly.

I just looked at the chart. I don't think there is 'massive shorting' going on here, altho you could have easily sold into the Nov 5th run-up and bought back your positions here.

We've got support @ roughly 5, and RSI looks like we're oversold out of the big rally, from where we were overbought; but if we break our support (to the downside) it could get ugly. MACD looks like it's getting ready to cross...good sign.

I'd be looking to buy here at around 5 or 5.2,5.3 and sell into the tea party, altho I'd like to see volume pick up first...but in these markets volume can be limited so I dunno what to think about that. I'd set my stop loss at maybe 4.75. If it continues to crash next support is probably just over 3. Great buy if that were to happen, but hey, who knows.

On the whole our volume is lower than the 'front-runners' so it looks fairly legit.

The guys who are buying and selling this stuff are trying to make $$$, not win (or lose) an election. Shorters could get burned in a big way.

I'm no true expert on stock charts, but I've used them before. This "analysis" took me maybe 5 minutes...If it's really an issue, I can get someone more experienced than myself to look at it.