So, what are the chances of a random encounter with a cop turning bad?

[Anti Federalist]

Just crunching some numbers for another forum...

So, lets look:

Assume a baseline of 450 people per year killed by one of the 845,000 active duty cops that carry weapons as of 2010

.05 %

And 14748 murders in 2010 committed by members of a 330,000,000 national population in 2010.

.004%

That is a 12.7 times greater chance of being killed by cop than a random criminal.

Now, granted, many of that 450 may have been legitimate "bad guys".

But the fact is, we really don't know, cops, even though required to by federal law, ignore reporting requirements for incidents where one of us mundanes gets killed.

[Zippyjuan]

You assumed that all 300 million residents are criminals in saying


That is a 12.7 times greater chance of being killed by cop than a random criminal.

[invisible]

You assumed that all 300 million residents are criminals in saying

Very true, the actual chances should be much higher.

[Zippyjuan]

Very true, the actual chances should be much higher.


It means the chances of being killed by a criminal rather than just a civilian are much higher which means that compared to criminals killing you the odds of a cop killing you become smaller- not larger- vs a criminal.

We have about two million people in jails. If we figure about half of criminals are not in jail we have about three million criminals. That makes the odds of being killed by a criminal 0.4% or eight times greater than the odds of being killed by a policeman.

[Anti Federalist]

Hah hah I KNEW when I saw Zip being the last one to post, he'd be picking my premise apart somehow.

All I'm saying is "random encounter".

You have no idea if somebody you randomly meet will kill you for some reason, even though most murders, the victim knows their killer.

[Anti Federalist]

You assumed that all 300 million residents are criminals in saying

They could be.

How would you know, in a "random encounter".

Any more than you would know that a random traffic stop would lead to you being shot by a cop.

[Zippyjuan]

Odds of being killed by either are extemely small. 2.5 million people died last year. 450 killed by cops make that probably the least likely way a person will die. Though based on threads here it might seem like the most common.

More stats. In 2010 there were 40 million police/ civilian "contacts". http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/14/police-killings-data/14060357/ which would make the odds of a "random encounter with a cop turning bad" meaning your death .00112 percent of such encounters.

[Christian Liberty]

I'll agree heartily that the stats show there's a problem, but it also confirms what I've been saying for awhiel now that the average cop isn't really just waiting for an opportunity to kill someone. Do some? Yeah. Do most? Not really. Does that make them "good"? No, I'm not saying that. They still make their living through legalized crime. But I'm not sure how scared you have to be in the rare case where you would need one of their legitimate services. Mind you, just because they don't kill you doesn't mean they'll be of much use.

[Anti Federalist]

Odds of being killed by either are extemely small. 2.5 million people died last year. 450 killed by cops make that probably the least likely way a person will die. Though based on threads here it might seem like the most common.

More stats. In 2010 there were 40 million police/ civilian "contacts". http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/14/police-killings-data/14060357/ which would make the odds of a "random encounter with a cop turning bad" meaning your death .00112 percent of such encounters.

Yes, things are relatively safe, that was the point I was making in the other thread.

So why do we need a standing army of oppression, making 84,000 SWAT raids a year?

Why do we need a police state so big that it is making 40,000,000 "contacts" with people every year?

Are you going to make the case that a police/surveillance state makes us more safe?

Because if that's the case, and that idea has taken root, then we all might as well go home and forgot about it now.

[Christian Liberty]

Yes, things are relatively safe, that was the point I was making in the other thread.

So why do we need a standing army of oppression, making 84,000 SWAT raids a year?

Why do we need a police state so big that it is making 40,000,000 "contacts" with people every year?

Are you going to make the case that a police/surveillance state makes us more safe?

Because if that's the case, and that idea has taken root, then we all might as well go home and forgot about it now.

Even if it did, it still isn't justified.

[Anti Federalist]

Odds of being killed by either are extemely small. 2.5 million people died last year. 450 killed by cops make that probably the least likely way a person will die. Though based on threads here it might seem like the most common.

More stats. In 2010 there were 40 million police/ civilian "contacts". http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/14/police-killings-data/14060357/ which would make the odds of a "random encounter with a cop turning bad" meaning your death .00112 percent of such encounters.

And how many "contacts" are made between citizens?

Billions.

So, while rare, you are still more likely to be killed or suffer injury at a random encounter with a cop, than with a fellow citizen.

(Please do not call us "civilians". Everybody, including cops, are civilians. That distinction is only for active military, and preferably only on foreign soil.)

[Anti Federalist]

Even if it did, it still isn't justified.

Safety Uber Alles comrade.

I'd like to pin Zip down on this if I can.

[Christian Liberty]

And how many "contacts" are made between citizens?

Billions.

So, while rare, you are still more likely to be killed or suffer injury at a random encounter with a cop, than with a fellow citizen.

(Please do not call us "civilians". Everybody, including cops, are civilians. That distinction is only for active military, and preferably only on foreign soil.)

I'm not even the most anti-cop person here, but I wouldn't consider them "civilians". They are at least in some sense government combatants.

[Ronin Truth]

Don't allow the encounter to last long enough to find out. Ending it ASAP and alive is the priority.

[Anti Federalist]

I'm not even the most anti-cop person here, but I wouldn't consider them "civilians". They are at least in some sense government combatants.

That they are.

But at the end of the day, and they can give themselves all the military titles and awards and costumes they want, they are still "civilians".

[thoughtomator]

What's the chances of an encounter with a cop going well?

[69360]

What's the chances of an encounter with a cop going well?

About 90% IMO. Most of them are decent people just doing their job. I figure 1 in 10 will give you a hard time.

You improve your odds by never calling the cops.

[JK/SEA]

About 90% IMO. Most of them are decent people just doing their job. I figure 1 in 10 will give you a hard time.

You improve your odds by never calling the cops.

''just doing their job''...haha...

my garbage man does his job, and he doesn't have a badge, gun, and immunity from killing someone...

do you see the difference?...

[Czolgosz]

If you tuck tail, cower, and say "sir" a bunch, you'll be fine.

[Indy Vidual]

If you tuck tail, cower, and say "sir" a bunch, you'll be fine.

Yes, you are correct, sir.

[69360]

''just doing their job''...haha...

my garbage man does his job, and he doesn't have a badge, gun, and immunity from killing someone...

do you see the difference?...

No, all I see is your prejudice. If you go into an encounter with a cop thinking it will go bad, it probably will. Just like anyone else, they will pick up on your shitty attitude and treat you accordingly. Granted there are bad ones that will treat you that way no matter what but most aren't.

I've had run ins with bad ones, it happens.

[Anti Federalist]

If you tuck tail, cower, and say "sir" a bunch, you'll be fine.

I hate nothing more than the reverse, the sickly sweet, phony, saccharin "sir" when being addressed by a cop.

[Anti Federalist]

No, all I see is your prejudice. If you go into an encounter with a cop thinking it will go bad, it probably will. Just like anyone else, they will pick up on your shitty attitude and treat you accordingly. Granted there are bad ones that will treat you that way no matter what but most aren't.

I've had run ins with bad ones, it happens.

"Anyone else" can't shoot you or kick your ass and get full legal immunity along with the assumption you won't lift a finger to defend yourself.

My attitude when dealing with cops is cool, aloof and calm with extreme wariness.

[Anti Federalist]

Killings By Police in Utah Outpacing Gang, Drug, Child-Abuse, and Spousal Homicides.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?463651-Killings-By-Police-in-Utah-Outpacing-Gang-Drug-Child-Abuse-and-Spousal-Homicides

[Crashland]

"Anyone else" can't shoot you or kick your ass and get full legal immunity along with the assumption you won't lift a finger to defend yourself.

Even if that were true, why is that relevant? Should be even more reason to make their jobs easier, not more difficult.

[Anti Federalist]

Even if that were true, why is that relevant? Should be even more reason to make their jobs easier, not more difficult.

Not following you...clarify please.

[PaulConventionWV]

It means the chances of being killed by a criminal rather than just a civilian are much higher which means that compared to criminals killing you the odds of a cop killing you become smaller- not larger- vs a criminal.

We have about two million people in jails. If we figure about half of criminals are not in jail we have about three million criminals. That makes the odds of being killed by a criminal 0.4% or eight times greater than the odds of being killed by a policeman.

This doesn't make any sense. Any person does have the POTENTIAL to be a criminal. So, perhaps a better wording of it would be: there is a 12.7 times greater chance of being killed by a cop than a random person. Either way, the statistic is still valid. You can't invalidate it by saying the vast majority of people are not criminals. Anybody could be a criminal. They are only NOT criminals because they haven't committed a crime YET. That's not to say we should treat it as such like the cops do, but statistically speaking, the figure is valid.

[Anti Federalist]

The Why.


And what I have been bitching and hollering about now for YEARS...

The Circular Force Continuum.


<snip>

‘Officers may use any force available’

The Peace Officer Standards and Training (POST) division of the Utah Department of Safety oversees, directly or indirectly, the basic training of all police recruits in Utah. At its four-month academy, cadets are introduced to the use-of-force continuum, a diagram showing officer force options — simply showing up at the scene; verbal commands, touching or holding a subject, pepper spray, police dogs, baton, Taser, or deadly force — arrayed in a circle for the officer’s selection.

"Officers may use any force available provided they can justify the reasonableness of force used," the manual states.

Adams maintains that officers in Utah typically use less force than may be justified.

http://www.sltrib.com/news/1842489-155/killings-by-utah-police-outpacing-gang

Just so everybody is clear on this:

The CFC maintains that a cop can use whatever force he deems reasonable to ensure his safety, including deadly force.

What that means in the real world is a cop can blow you away for twitching funny, making "furtive movements" or "menacing staring".

And the "reasonableness" of his action will be determined by...fellow cops.

Which is why, after years and hundreds of shootings in one sparsely populated state, ONLY ONE was ever determined to be "unreasonable".

Treat every encounter with a cop as potentially life threatening one, and avoid these criminal lunatics at all costs.

[coastie]

No, all I see is your prejudice. If you go into an encounter with a cop thinking it will go bad, it probably will. Just like anyone else, they will pick up on your shitty attitude and treat you accordingly. Granted there are bad ones that will treat you that way no matter what but most aren't.

I've had run ins with bad ones, it happens.

Your attitude is the problem here.

Cops are not supposed to "treat you accordingly" in accordance with any real, perceived or manufactured attitude problem.

You summed it all up in that one little sentence, and 97% of America agrees with you - and this is why we are where we are today with this...

[Occam's Banana]

If you tuck tail, cower, and say "sir" a bunch, you'll be fine.

http://www.policestateusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/KellyThomas-pleas.jpg

http://www.policestateusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/KellyThomas5.jpg

[Zippyjuan]

This doesn't make any sense. Any person does have the POTENTIAL to be a criminal. So, perhaps a better wording of it would be: there is a 12.7 times greater chance of being killed by a cop than a random person. Either way, the statistic is still valid. You can't invalidate it by saying the vast majority of people are not criminals. Anybody could be a criminal. They are only NOT criminals because they haven't committed a crime YET. That's not to say we should treat it as such like the cops do, but statistically speaking, the figure is valid.

Ah- so you admit to being a criminal.

.00112 percent of all deaths in this country are caused by cops.

[invisible]

I've had run ins with bad ones, it happens.

And since you claim that that has so much to do with where a person lives, it obviously must have been justified because you live in a trailer, right? Since many people think that living in a trailer is a rather ghetto thing to do, this obviously wouldn't have happened to you if you lived in a wealthy area, right?

[Tod]

I recently became an admin for my county's Cop Block facebook page. This is one of my posts:



The job of a police officer, as it is currently structured, is fundamentally immoral for two reasons:

1. They are paid with money taken with the threat of violence from taxpayers (armed robbery victims).
2. They are required, as part of the job description, to set aside morality in favor of enforcing the decrees of politicians regardless of whether there is an identifiable victim of the alleged "crime". To use the threat of violence to enforce a victimless "crime" means that the enforcer initiates aggression against the "law breaker", and that is never acceptable.

In order for a police officer's job to become moral, two things need to change:

A. They should accept payment only from voluntarily donated sources.
B. They should only enforce "laws" that concern actual crime with an identifiable victim, and refrain from enforcing arbitrary rules laid out by politicians such as those that prevent a farmer from selling unpasteurized milk to a knowing customer.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Cop Block's motto is: "Badges don't grant extra rights". The only way for that to be true is if conditions (A) and (B) above are met. When conditions (1) and (2) are met, then those sporting badges are claiming extra rights.

The Declaration of Independence says, in part, "Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed", which implies that if a man does not consent, then the government has no just power over him.

The Constitution, however, purports to give certain people "authority" over others without consent. One of the claims is that "Congress shall have the power to lay and collect taxes".

No private individual has that power (they would immediately be identified as a robber or thief) so how can a private individual bestow that right on "Congress"? The only answer is that they cannot bestow that right from a logic standpoint. It is a fiction. A superstition.
I own myself and you own yourself and for me to claim I have the authority to rule you is a violation of your self-ownership. It matters not whether everyone but you within the particular geographical area agrees that I should have authority to rule you, I cannot morally do so.

In that same way, a police officer cannot claim to have rights that private people do not have. They have no moral right to initiate aggression against someone who has harmed no one.

This is why, with the way things presently are done, there is no such thing as a "good cop". That does not mean that all people who become cops are ill-meaning. That a cop will occasionally change the tire on some poor old lady's car is evidence of that. But such good-intentions do not and cannot detract from the coercive nature of the job as it is presently structured.

A couple days ago, this became my Facebook profile pic

https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10805810_10202468878877119_5612109190732722103_n.j pg?oh=523966ac6ed88ec786fb7ffddc9dde77&oe=551B8D4C

A woman I know slightly, who used to work as a CAD designer until she was laid off a few years ago and is now a cop, unfriended me when that became my profile pic. (I've been posting stories of police abuse and corruption for a long time, but this was the straw that broke the camel's back)

[69360]

And since you claim that that has so much to do with where a person lives, it obviously must have been justified because you live in a trailer, right? Since many people think that living in a trailer is a rather ghetto thing to do, this obviously wouldn't have happened to you if you lived in a wealthy area, right?

I live in a wealthy area.

This isn't the first time you've made similar comments. It's getting old.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

...

[UWDude]

Odds of being killed by either are extemely small. 2.5 million people died last year. 450 killed by cops make that probably the least likely way a person will die. Though based on threads here it might seem like the most common.

More stats. In 2010 there were 40 million police/ civilian "contacts". http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/14/police-killings-data/14060357/ which would make the odds of a "random encounter with a cop turning bad" meaning your death .00112 percent of such encounters.

death certainly isnt the only way an encounter with a cop will turn bad.

And it is pretty sad 1/7 people have a cop encounter every year. I bet in the 50's, it was more like 1/100.