Why Ron Paul has this nomination almost locked up already (must read)

[nyrgoal99]

The reason is, because the poll numbers are being interpreted wrong.

No, no, in Iowa RP is at 7%. But look into the numbers.

In most states, only 10% of people come out and vote in primaries. This fact is being ignored by the media. If this were a presidential election, than yes, RP is at 7% because 50% of the country votes.

Look at Iowa however, RP is at 7%, which is coming from people via phone who say yes i will vote for him. Lets say about 70% of these people actually vote for RP, RP would really be at 5%. So in an election of 100 votes, RP would get 5.

But wait, only 10% of people vote compared to 50% in the general election which is 80% less. So if those 5 people voted, but only another 15 did because of the 10% rule, RP gets 25%.

Now this is extreme, but if RP gets say 3% in any state, he is probably really at 15% easy.

Someone can disagree with my numbers, but the logic is solid.


THIS IS WHY OUR ENTHUSIATIC SUPPORTERS ARE GOING TO WIN IT FOR US, BECUASE ALL RP SUPPORTERS ARE GOING TO VOTE

This is why pledgeforpaul.com is so important. We can track which states we are doing well in, and which we are not.


What do you think

[transistor]

well, they only poll likely voters

[nyrgoal99]

well, they only poll likely voters

Yes, they poll the 50% that vote in the general election, but 80% of those people do not show up for primaries

[saahmed]

Aren't they "likely primary voters"? He is at 7% of like Republican primary voters. He will gain quite a few from independent and new voters, and maybe some democrats. In your analysis keep in mind that your logic applies to all the other candidates polled as well.

[constitutional]

Supporters of RP are likely to show up at the voting booth. Who doesn't like the message of freedom, liberty and humble foreign policy? It's only a matter of spreading the message.

[nyrgoal99]

Aren't they "likely primary voters"? He is at 7% of like Republican primary voters. He will gain quite a few from independent and new voters, and maybe some democrats. In your analysis keep in mind that your logic applies to all the other candidates polled as well.

I believe they talk to "likely voters" not likely primary voters


This is why Kerry won, but was only 10-15% before the elections

WE dont need 15%, because everyone is going to vote who supports RP

[FreedomLover]

I don't think your math is quite right, but the fact that there is such a hugesplit between the field, and that no candidate gets more than 30% in most states, gives RP a once in a lifetime chance of winning with an unusually small plurality.

[nist7]

well, they only poll likely voters

EXACTLY.

ANd how many [previously] apathetic/democrat/independent/socialist/etc. voters are voting for RP?

These "polls" lie because they can only work with voters who have consistently and regularly voted republican in the previous years. They do not account the amount of NEW voters being attracted to the Revolution THIS year!

[nyrgoal99]

I don't think your math is quite right, but the fact that there is such a hugesplit between the field, and that no candidate gets more than 30% in most states, gives RP a once in a lifetime chance of winning with an unusually small plurality.

My point is, if the media says RP is at 7%, he is way higher, because his supporters will turn out, and everyone elses wont nearly as much

[Paulitician]

Well, they only poll a fraction of Ron Paul supporters. In fact, I would say the majority of people who say they're for Ron Paul on these polls are only casual supporters of him. They leave out almost all the hardcore supporters and activists (IMO, but I feel as I have good reason to believe this). I would not agree with you that we have this won already. If that were true, why didn't we see more votes for Ron Paul at Ames? He should have gotten at least more than Tancredo and Brownback, who have virtually no support. We have to work hard to do well in Iowa and South Carolina especially. Never believe it's won until it's won. Otherwise we'll surely fail.

[Paulite5112007]

I look at it this way...

The polls use a voter database from the last Republican primary, which Bush won. So, essentially, he has 5%-8% support of this demographic. These people voted in the last primary, lets assume they vote in this one at 100% - along with whomever is the front runner (assume 25%). Considering those voter databases only have about 10%-15% of the registered Republicans, they are not calling about 85%-90% of the 'unlikely voters'. Lets assume they carry the SAME percentage of support (8% for Paul and 25% for frontrunner). I know Paul is higher, but lets be conservative and use 8%.

Out of 100 people in their database, 8 vote for Ron Paul and the Frontrunner gets 25 votes. Ron is short 17 votes. However, there are 900 other registered Republicans. These people dont vote so their polls ignore them. 8% of 900 people is 72 votes. If only 25% of Ron Pauls supporters who did not vote in the 2000 Primary vote for him (in addition to the 'likely 8% the polls have) Ron Paul wins. I am hoping for a 50% voter turnout for Ron Paul and I dont think that is asking for much considering how passionate we are about him. Its NOT just about hating the current choices - its that we HAVE a choice that will drive us to the voting booth.

[Indy Vidual]

Aren't they "likely primary voters"? He is at 7% of like Republican primary voters. He will gain quite a few from independent and new voters, and maybe some democrats. In your analysis keep in mind that your logic applies to all the other candidates polled as well.

People who showed up to vote for an uncontested Bush = "Likely primary voters?"

or

Do they ask if they are voting this time?

[quickmike]

The big factor that the media will be shocked at on primaries day, is when all the people of all ages that have been apathetic to politics for most of their lives, many who have never even bothered voting before, are going to turn out for Ron Paul................ and thats a shitload of people my friends.

[rooteroa]

This is a dumb post, there is a TON of work to be done if Paul even has a chance to win this election. Be realistic and our chances are better, delude yourself and we won't have a chance.

[nyrgoal99]

Well, they only poll a fraction of Ron Paul supporters. In fact, I would say the majority of people who say they're for Ron Paul on these polls are only casual supporters of him. They leave out almost all the hardcore supporters and activists (IMO, but I feel as I have good reason to believe this). I would not agree with you that we have this won already. If that were true, why didn't we see more votes for Ron Paul at Ames? He should have gotten at least more than Tancredo and Brownback, who have virtually no support. We have to work hard to do well in Iowa and South Carolina especially. Never believe it's won until it's won. Otherwise we'll surely fail.

The straw poll, that was 6 months ago.

Plus many believe Paul won that, hense the hour delay before announcing the winner

[rasheedwallace]

enter voting fraud...

without paper balloting i don't trust it.

[shortna]

As the video says, we must identify Ron Paul supporters and make sure they vote.

http://stevenjm.netfirms.com/RonPaulCampaignHQGrassrootsTrainingVideos.htm

[Buzz]

I think your end result is about right, but you're leaving out some factors that will boost RP's turnout while inflating RP turnout support (which basically cancel out). As motivated as we are, saying that RP supporters will turn out at a rate 7x that of the rest is a probably a stretch, but since the phone polls are so bad at registering how much support we actually have, that's essentially what's going to happen according to how much support the polls think we have.

[nist7]

The big factor that the media will be shocked at on primaries day, is when all the people of all ages that have been apathetic to politics for most of their lives, many who have never even bothered voting before, are going to turn out for Ron Paul................ and thats a shitload of people my friends.

heck yes!


This is a dumb post, there is a TON of work to be done if Paul even has a chance to win this election. Be realistic and our chances are better, delude yourself and we won't have a chance.

rooteroa rasies a VERY important point:

Do NOT settle for the status quo!

No matter how logic and how flawed the polls are....we MUST strive to make the primary elections a LANDSLIDE for Dr. Paul!

[Paulite5112007]

People who showed up to vote for an uncontested Bush = "Likely primary voters?"

or

Do they ask if they are voting this time?

They use a voter database and filter for people who voted in previous Republican primary - essentially they are polling people who voted for Bush in 2000.

[Paulitician]

The straw poll, that was 6 months ago.

Plus many believe Paul won that, hense the hour delay before announcing the winner
I don't care what many believe. You can believe that Ron Paul was first a no else got any votes, but the outcome is still what it is, Ron Paul got 5th. Now, obviously you can't take the polls for gospel, but they still have have him at 5th place. I think there is reason to be optimistic, but as others have said here, don't delude yourself. We have yet to prove ourselves in one of these big events, dozens of small straw polls don't count. I hope it doesn't come to us saying, "crap, we miscalculated. We should have worked harder," when it's too late.

[Wyurm]

If a poll says 2% or 5%, the reader will see that and usually take it at face value. So, like it or not, we need those numbers to go up. Can we win the race without high polls? of course. Should we relax and think everything is ok just because its possible? Absolutely not, we won't have this in the bag untill the primaries are over so we do still need to work on it.

[Paulite5112007]

I would rather win with 60% than 30%.

Im still pushing the slim jims and still donating - for sure.

[ionlyknowy]

-------actual %----- polled %------ Total Polled--- Final votes
paul--- 0.7--------------- 0.07------- 10000--------- 490
rom--- 0.1--------------- 0.25------- 10000--------- 250
fred--- 0.1-------------- 0.17------ 10000--------- 170
huck-- 0.4-------------- 0.15------ 10000--------- 600

This is a very good example how Paul can win...

If you see above, the first column is the Actual percentage of voters that will come out and vote on election day.

The second column is the percentage a candidate gets in traditional polls.

The third column assumes that 10,000 people were polled.

Final votes is a multiplication of columns 1,2,3 to get the total number of votes each candidate will get in the primary election.

This analysis presupposes that Paul will have a 70% turn out on election day and all the others will have a 10% turnout with huck having a 40%.

The one thing that we have in our favor is that most of our supporters are young and do not have landlines. Therefore the number you see above has an unknown positive addition. Coupled with a number of hidden votes (people that would never outwardly support Paul yet, in the "privacy" of the polling booth will vote for him)

This means that we have an awesome chance to win this... just get us to 10% in any of these landline polls and we will def. win...IMO

[JenHarris]

It seems like an awful lot of people are trying to convince themselves and me that we've won this already and it scares me. Are you people looking for an excuse not to go out and do the work required? I don't like to tell people what to do so I won't but if you think this is in the bag you're fooling yourself.

We're probably polling higher than what we're seeing but we have no way of knowing just how much support there is for us outside of the internet or even on it. We have no way of knowing who is going to actually go vote for us so we must keep working on getting more exposure in the real world.

Today I saw my very first Ron Paul yard sign from someone not in my meetup group, and I stood for an hour in the pouring rain waving signs with 5 other people. We got a decent response but not nearly enough for me to feel confident that this election is locked down.

[Buzz]

^Good post. I don't like speculation at all unless the estimates are so conservative that nobody could possibly argue with them.

[ionlyknowy]

What my poll shows is one thing....

IF and ONLY IF we make sure that every RP supporter votes, then we will not win.

What we should be doing instead of sign waving is going door to door, actually finding RP supporters and getting their information... Like

1. Name
2. phone numbers (yes that is plural)
3. email address
4. Address
5. Are they registered?

You dont even have to try and convince anyone to support RP, just find out if they support him, if they dont know who he is tell them about him real quick and move on.

A couple of days before the election, call everyone on the list and tell them where the poll station is located. Maybe even email them driving instructions.

Then on election day, call all of the people on your list to make sure that they have voted, and if they havent then offer them a ride to the polling station.

If we all did this, to ensure a near 100% turnout... we would win by a landslide, with just the supporters we have right now.


All of this information that I just typed is not coming from me, this is what the campaign is telling us to do...

If all of you would watch the grassroots training videos on the official website then you would know this already..

[JenHarris]

I agree with that except that it is also ok to do sign waves. For one thing, it gets people motivated to do more when they get honked at. I know I get more energy from doing it; sometimes when you're working at this and things begin to seem futile a sign wave is the perfect cure.


What my poll shows is one thing....

IF and ONLY IF we make sure that every RP supporter votes, then we will not win.

What we should be doing instead of sign waving is going door to door, actually finding RP supporters and getting their information... Like

1. Name
2. phone numbers (yes that is plural)
3. email address
4. Address
5. Are they registered?

You dont even have to try and convince anyone to support RP, just find out if they support him, if they dont know who he is tell them about him real quick and move on.

A couple of days before the election, call everyone on the list and tell them where the poll station is located. Maybe even email them driving instructions.

Then on election day, call all of the people on your list to make sure that they have voted, and if they havent then offer them a ride to the polling station.

If we all did this, to ensure a near 100% turnout... we would win by a landslide, with just the supporters we have right now.


All of this information that I just typed is not coming from me, this is what the campaign is telling us to do...

If all of you would watch the grassroots training videos on the official website then you would know this already..