Odds against 10 mil on the 16th at 400 to 1

[Sematary]

But the odds makers don't feel confident that Ron Paul will hit the $10 million mark at the 2007 Ron Paul Tea Party, on the betting prop will the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 meet its goal of raising $10 million or more in donations, failure to do so is currently favored with odds -400 and "yes" pays underdog odds of +250. The bookie is even more skeptical of the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 receiving more than 100,000 pledges by the end of December 16th - odds on getting the 100K pledges are sitting at +500 and the odds on not getting them at -900.

http://www.ogpaper.com/news/news-01388.html

I still think we have a shot at the 10 mil but I don't see getting 100,000 pledges
I do believe we can get 60 - 70,000 donations though
IF I were to put money on it though, I'd bet against the 10 mil
I think, since the campaign keeps hitting up for donations that we're probably going to hit 7 to 8 million

[Fyretrohl]

Well, I am already pledged...BUT...

I am a first time donator on Dec 16. Not sure if 100 yet, since I just got a tax bill...

[Sematary]

Well, I am already pledged...BUT...

I am a first time donator on Dec 16. Not sure if 100 yet, since I just got a tax bill...

If you can do $100, please do.

[DJ RP]

400-1 nice odds.

If you're putting up $100 on dec 16th you should also stick a dollar on that gamble. That way if we make 10 million on the 16th we can make 40 million on the 17th with the profits :)

[RonFan1776]

Where did you get the 400-1 odds?

A line of +250 on the yes means that you get $250 for every $100 bet if he breaks $10 million on the 16th.

-400 on the failure means you win $100 for every $400 bet if he doesn't make $10 million on the 16th.

[Fyretrohl]

I am trying to figure out how to do it. But, I can not be fiscally irresponsible. I have to take care of my house first, just as the government should be taking care of their house <The US itself> first. Also, I don't have the power of the Fed Government to just print more money. :)

[Jordan]

Its not 400 to one but 4:1. +400 means $400 on top of a $100 bet

[beobeli]

The polls, predictions, odds, name-calling, debate question selections, troll post in the forum and many other maneuvers are attempts to demoralize Ron Paul supporters. IT IS WHAT YOU CALL INFORMATION or PROPAGANDA WAR.

But guess what. We cannot be demoralized. Whatever the odds, we follow the only platform that has a chance to bring the country onto the right course. We know it, because we are informed and understand the "games" the status quo is playing. Ron Paul supporters are absolutely amazing. They are knowledgeable, informed, independent thinkers, brave, and understand which "commentaries" need to be ignored.

Just stick to your guns and put the money where your patriotism is and/or remain active on the ground.

[BeFranklin]

But the odds makers don't feel confident that Ron Paul will hit the $10 million mark at the 2007 Ron Paul Tea Party, on the betting prop will the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 meet its goal of raising $10 million or more in donations, failure to do so is currently favored with odds -400 and "yes" pays underdog odds of +250. The bookie is even more skeptical of the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 receiving more than 100,000 pledges by the end of December 16th - odds on getting the 100K pledges are sitting at +500 and the odds on not getting them at -900.

I think the 100,000 pledges bet is winnable. A lot of the people probably pledged once, but are intending to donate a lot more then $100. I know I did. If everyone that is pledging one hundred dollars, pledges the number of times of what they are going to actually donate, ie $500 = 5 * 100 = 5 pledges not one, we'd start getting close. 20,000 current pledges times 5 = 100,000 -- win.

I'd bet the majority of people didn't pledge more than once. We ought to in the next few weeks to what we are going to give just to make the pledge total increase to its correct amount.

[Original_Intent]

I fpeople pledge more than once youcan bet that it would be discovered and the bet would not be paid.

[Visual]

imo I think 10 mil is a high expectation, if we can get the most of any candidate in a day this year i'd be content, but I'd also be happy with hitting 12 mil.

[BeFranklin]

I fpeople pledge more than once youcan bet that it would be discovered and the bet would not be paid.

There is no rule nor intention to say that one pledge means one person. The reason people aren't pledging all their multiples of $100's is laziness in entering it in, not some rule.

The pledge just means assurance that 100 dollars is coming on the 16th, that is all. If you are sending in $200, it would be helpful to say that on the teaparty07.com site - it will attract more donors and maybe win a bet.

[RPatTheBeach]

Where did you get the 400-1 odds?

A line of +250 on the yes means that you get $250 for every $100 bet if he breaks $10 million on the 16th.

-400 on the failure means you win $100 for every $400 bet if he doesn't make $10 million on the 16th.



So, if you get $250 for every $100 you bet... *IF* we could get EVERY DONOR to donate the full $2300, AND make a $2000 wager at these odds, not only does the campaign break every record in the book, but each donor gets an extra $200 for their effort! Am I misunderstanding something?

[sickmint79]

i don't think we'll get 10 mil
i do think we'll set a new 1 day record :)

[MadTheologian]

400-1 nice odds.

If you're putting up $100 on dec 16th you should also stick a dollar on that gamble. That way if we make 10 million on the 16th we can make 40 million on the 17th with the profits :)

I like the way you think. :D

[Jobarra]

There's a big difference between pledges and donors. Pledges are measured on the teaparty07 site and a large number of people have said they won't sign up there but WILL donate on the 16th. If it was donors, I think it might be doable. Since it's pledges, I don't think we'll break 50K by Dec16th. If we do get close to 50K though, I have no doubt that we'll be over 10M that day. Just way too many people(including me) who plan to give more than $100 on that day for us not to double the amount pledged. If I'm right, then we have already beaten Nov 5th with 2 weeks left to go. And of course as the success of the event grows through the day, more people will decide that they can spare another few bucks which sends it spiraling ever higher. Don't forget about all those who didn't sign up either. We doubled the amount of pledges on Nov 5th. If that happens again, we're almost to 50K already.

[Starks]

Conservative estimate: 2 million
Expected estimate: 5 million
Reach estimate: 8 million

[madcat033]

yeah -400 is NOT 400 to 1 odds. Mods please change the misleading title.

-400 is 4:1 odds.

[mconder]

I'll be donating my $100 if me, my wife, and 4 kids have to eat cat food for Christmas. This is to important.

[voytechs]

My guess is $6M - $8M. We can probably get $10m but in January.