FreedomWorks Poll (May '14) - Justin Amash up 30% in Primary

[tsai3904]

FreedomWorks for America Survey Shows Rep. Justin Amash up 30% in MI-3 Primary

By Jacqueline Bodnar, 05/29/14

Establishment challenger has spent over $400,000 leading into the August primary, still trails grassroots-backed Rep. Amash

Washington, DC- FreedomWorks for America released recent poll results from Michigan’s third congressional district that show Rep. Justin Amash leading by 30 percent in his primary, with a 57 percent favorable rating. When those polled were asked to choose between Amash and Ellis, Amash received 53 percent support, compared to only 23 percent for Ellis.

“Congressman Justin Amash is the gold standard when it comes to individual liberty and constitutional conservatism. He has the support of grassroots activists across the district because of his commitment to truth and transparency,” said FreedomWorks for America President Matt Kibbe.

“Primaries exist to provide citizens with an opportunity to upgrade their representation in Washington, but in the case of Congressman Amash, constituents know that there is almost no room for improvement.”

Kellyanne Conway, whose firm, the polling company, inc., conducted the survey, observed, “Rep. Amash's poll position reflects the good will he has among GOP primary voters in his district.” Both the Congressman (57%-24% fav-unfav) and the Tea Party (61%-20% fav-unfav) enjoy better than 2-to-1 favorable-unfavorable ratings. Conway added, “Voters tend to reward principle and consistency.”

The poll results also revealed that moderate GOP challenger Brian Ellis has 16 percent favorability, with a 19 percent unfavorable rating. Ellis has spent over $400,000, yet is still unknown to over 30 percent of voters in the district.

Kibbe added, “It is not a good sign for the Ellis campaign when 32 percent of voters haven’t heard of you, another 30 percent have no opinion, and 19 percent don’t like you.”

The survey of 400 likely GOP primary voters in Michigan’s third congressional district was conducted May 16-18, 2014 with live callers; 87.5% landlines and 12.5% cell phones. The margin of error is ±4.9% at the 95% confidence level.

FreedomWorks for America is a grassroots service center to over 6 million activists supporting candidates who believe in individual liberty and constitutionally-limited government. For more information, please visit www.FreedomWorksForAmerica.org or contact Jackie Bodnar at JBodnar@FreedomWorks.org.

http://www.freedomworksforamerica.org/press-releases/freedomworks-for-america-survey-shows-rep-justin-amash-up-30-in-mi-3-primary

[Koz]

Good news, this gives me hope for our country. Not much hope, but some.

[William Tell]

Of course he is, does this surprise anybody? He has the advantage of A. being an incumbent. And B. having a record that reflects him keeping his promises. We need new victories, Amash has already won.

[francisco]

Good news, this gives me hope for our country. Not much hope, but some.

Same here!


Of course he is, does this surprise anybody? He has the advantage of A. being an incumbent. And B. having a record that reflects him keeping his promises. We need new victories, Amash has already won.

Counting chickens before they hatch makes me nervous. But your observations about incumbency and Amash's keeping promises as key factors in this election are spot on.

[Mr.NoSmile]

Er, it's also a FreedomWorks poll, which probably would have backed Amash anyway.

[William Tell]

Counting chickens before they hatch makes me nervous.

Yeah, but Ellis is out of cards. He's called Amash everything under the sun, and is still 30 points behind. The only reason he was ever considered a threat is his money. He is a joke candidate. I betcha Amash wins with upwards of 65%. They failed to take out Walter Jones with a serious challenger. No way can they take out Amash. I really hope McMillan and some others win, they need more support.




http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Img/cBox.gif
Republican


Congressman (http://amash.house.gov/) Justin Amash (http://www.amashforcongress.com/)
• FEC H0MI03126; 31 Mar 14; Tot $1,295,025; Dsb $531,861



http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Img/cBox.gif
Republican


former Board Trustee at East Grand Rapids Public Schools Brian Robert Ellis (http://www.ellis4congress.com/)
• FEC H4MI03219; 31 Mar 14; Tot $829,642; Dsb $416,218



http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G14/MI

[William Tell]

Er, it's also a FreedomWorks poll, which probably would have backed Amash anyway.

They paid for it, but it is a scientific poll of the district.

[EBounding]

I really hope McMillan and some others win, they need more support.

And Amash has pretty much said the same thing.

459791000483807233

If Amash can win by the 30%+ margin and Tom McMillin's wins by any margin, it will be a huge blow to the establishment.

[invisible]

We need new victories, Amash has already won.

The problem here is that too much attention was / is / has been focused on candidates in swing districts / states, rather than places that are solidly red. For example, lots of effort / money / attention was dumped into NC, while an entire slate of excellent liberty candidates here in OK has been virtually ignored. It's not too late to help give a boost to our candidates in OK, since the primary is still almost a month away. Will be posting more on this very soon in the appropriate section.

[gnuschler]

The problem here is that too much attention was / is / has been focused on candidates in swing districts / states, rather than places that are solidly red. For example, lots of effort / money / attention was dumped into NC, while an entire slate of excellent liberty candidates here in OK has been virtually ignored. It's not too late to help give a boost to our candidates in OK, since the primary is still almost a month away. Will be posting more on this very soon in the appropriate section.

Then we MUST make it easier to support such candidates. Jurgs's website is helpful, but it still takes a lot of work to figure out which are the legit candidates, and which are the fringe candidates. Liberty Action is the most helpful PAC for funding federal candidates (FreedomWorks to a lesser extent), but there's nothing out there that I'm aware of that: 1) identifies, 2) vets, 3) ranks, and 4) allocates resources accordingly for state-level liberty candidates.

[William Tell]

The problem here is that too much attention was / is / has been focused on candidates in swing districts / states, rather than places that are solidly red. For example, lots of effort / money / attention was dumped into NC, while an entire slate of excellent liberty candidates here in OK has been virtually ignored. It's not too late to help give a boost to our candidates in OK, since the primary is still almost a month away. Will be posting more on this very soon in the appropriate section.

I agree 100%.

[Bastiat's The Law]

The problem here is that too much attention was / is / has been focused on candidates in swing districts / states, rather than places that are solidly red. For example, lots of effort / money / attention was dumped into NC, while an entire slate of excellent liberty candidates here in OK has been virtually ignored. It's not too late to help give a boost to our candidates in OK, since the primary is still almost a month away. Will be posting more on this very soon in the appropriate section.

Brannon only raised $1 million for his Senate campaign. To be competitive he needed at least $3-5 million. So even in a state where you think we dumped a lot of money and energy into winning, it really was a halfhearted effort from the Liberty Movement. The vast majority of Paulers were tuned out and didn't hear of Brannon until is was too late if at all.

[invisible]

Brannon only raised $1 million for his Senate campaign. To be competitive he needed at least $3-5 million. So even in a state where you think we dumped a lot of money and energy into winning, it really was a halfhearted effort from the Liberty Movement. The vast majority of Paulers were tuned out and didn't hear of Brannon until is was too late if at all.

Exactly. And if that was only a halfhearted effort, then what sort of (nationally based) effort is being made on behalf of Randy Brogdon? That $1m would probably have gone a LOT further in what is likely a lower-priced media market, in a state where winning the primary is pretty much an automatic win in the general election. I don't mean to disparage any particular candidate or race, since ALL liberty candidates are worth supporting, no matter where they are (yes, that would even include John Dennis as well). I am merely pointing out that in general, the most winnable (open seats in strongly red locations) races have not necessarily been the ones that have been most focused upon in this midterm, and that unfortunately translates into fewer liberty candidates actually winning elections and getting into office.