Denver Murder Rate Cut in Half After Marijuana Legalization. Coincidence?

[jim49er]

According to statistics recently released by the government in Denver, the amount of robberies and violent crimes significantly decreased since marijuana legalization went into effect. It is important to mention that this strong correlation is not definitive proof that legalization is the cause of this drop in crime, but it does strongly suggest that this is the case.

These statistics are especially convincing considering the short amount of time that this drastic reduction in crime has taken place. In just one short year the number of homicides dropped by 52.9%. Sexual assaults were reduced by 13.6%. Robberies were down by 4.8% and assaults were down by 3.7%.

http://thefreethoughtproject.com/denver-crime-rate/

[surf]

Thanks for posting. i'll be certain to use this somewhere in Washington when discussing with the nay folks.

if we ever get retail pot operations here, i'll hope to see similar stats (though we may have them already w/the relaxed attitude toward marijuana).

[amonasro]

As the late George Carlin said, Marijuana doesn't lead to violence, it leads to carpentry. Thanks for posting, that is a significant statistic.

[kcchiefs6465]

A point to be noted, many people wouldn't use alcohol if cannabis was an option.

I speak specifically of parolees, those on probation and the like.

Not that crimes wouldn't be committed if those people simply used marijuana, they well would be. The differences in people using alcohol and cannabis are many. Certainly petty crimes, assaults, etc. would be lowered with the legalization of marijuana. People being arrested for public intoxication, disorderly conduct, domestic violence, etc. would lower as well.

As far as murders are concerned... I'd be willing to bet that it rises back up to 'regular' levels. Sure, a few people may be more level headed and act accordingly but in a metropolitan such as Denver, I'd bet most murders are over drug turf, gang rivalries, and vendettas. They really aren't killing people for the $50 an ounce profit to be made (before 'legalization').

Cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, etc. elicit high prices because of their illegality, for one, and as importantly, for two, their addictive properties.

It's a sad market but to be clear they'd find whatever they wanted elsewhere. The prohibition of drugs has led to the exorbitant prices, gang wars and the trouble that brings, and a general black market offering all the ills it does (inferior products, scams, robberies, fraud, criminal schooling).

In short, the murder rate falling as much was more about the people having hope. It won't take long for that to diminish and with the schooling many are forced to conform their thoughts to; I doubt many even realize or care.

[UWDude]

if crimes had doubled since... this would be national headline news.

[CaptUSA]

While this is certainly nice, I would caution you that correlation does not imply causation.

Unfortunately, if it had gone the other way, the media would be using that same failed logic against us.

There are so many variables to crime statistics, that it is nearly impossible to provide a explanation. I'd just take this as good news that fate is on our side - for now.

[nayjevin]

Not that crimes wouldn't be committed if those people simply used marijuana, they well would be. The differences in people using alcohol and cannabis are many. Certainly petty crimes, assaults, etc. would be lowered with the legalization of marijuana. People being arrested for public intoxication, disorderly conduct, domestic violence, etc. would lower as well.

Just pointing out that 'people being arrested' is way different from 'crimes being committed.' Pretty easy to count crimes differently for political purposes, or instruct officers to focus on certain crimes and not others.

[otherone]

In just one short year the number of homicides dropped by 52.9%. Sexual assaults were reduced by 13.6%. Robberies were down by 4.8% and assaults were down by 3.7%.



...and cupcake sales have increased 300%

[MRK]

As the late George Carlin said, Marijuana doesn't lead to violence, it leads to carpentry. Thanks for posting, that is a significant statistic.

I have always wondered what was meant by carpentry in this line from Carlin. Does he mean it literally? I really don't get it.

Anyone know the meaning here?

[jkr]

oops?

[pcosmar]

I have always wondered what was meant by carpentry in this line from Carlin. Does he mean it literally? I really don't get it.

Anyone know the meaning here?

On the odd occasion that I get a taste,, I get work done.. Often jobs that had been put off.. or jobs that I am just inspired to do.
Marijuana does have an inspirational effect. (music,art, Crafts,,etc)

[jonhowe]

I have always wondered what was meant by carpentry in this line from Carlin. Does he mean it literally? I really don't get it.

Anyone know the meaning here?

For me it leads to cleaning the house, doing dishes and the like. Don't ask me why.

[dannno]

I have always wondered what was meant by carpentry in this line from Carlin. Does he mean it literally? I really don't get it.

Anyone know the meaning here?

Ya it's great to get stoned and relax, but it's also great to get stoned and go on a hike or an adventure or build something. Everything is better when you're stoned.

[Snew]

Fantastic to hear, either way.

[KurtBoyer25L]

I have always wondered what was meant by carpentry in this line from Carlin. Does he mean it literally? I really don't get it.

Anyone know the meaning here?

I think it's actually a reference to building stuff to grow or smoke out of.

[Zippyjuan]

While this is certainly nice, I would caution you that correlation does not imply causation.

Unfortunately, if it had gone the other way, the media would be using that same failed logic against us.

There are so many variables to crime statistics, that it is nearly impossible to provide a explanation. I'd just take this as good news that fate is on our side - for now.

Another change was made at the same time- Colorado tightened their gun control laws.
Possible headline: "New Gun Laws Lower Crime Rate". Would that (equally as likely a cause) receive the same attention here as saying it was marijuana laws instead- calling for more similar laws across the country? Was this a cause/ effect?

Also from the article in the OP:

One final possibility that comes to mind is the fact that possibly, police resources are being diverted towards serious crimes instead of nonviolent offenses.


A few months are not enough to say if there is a long- term trend or not.

Nation-wide murder and crime rates have been falling for quite a few years now. Even during the "Great Recession". I note that articles trumpeting falling rates since marijuana was legalized don't look at what the trend was before that.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/01/01/the-year-in-murder-2013-marks-a-historic-low-for-many-cities.html

The Year in Murder: 2013 Marks a Historic Low for Many Cities
With cities like New York and Philadelphia leading the way, America is on track to have its lowest murder rate in four decades.
From New York to Los Angeles, police departments are touting big drops in their number murder rate—and for good reason. If the country’s largest and most historically violent cities are any marker, the U.S. is on track to have one of the lowest murder rates in four decades, continuing a steady decline in overall violent crime.

And that is without any changes in marijuana laws.

[KurtBoyer25L]

Sure, a few people may be more level headed and act accordingly but in a metropolitan such as Denver, I'd bet most murders are over drug turf, gang rivalries, and vendettas. They really aren't killing people for the $50 an ounce profit to be made (before 'legalization').

I haven't lived there my whole life or anything, but from what I can gather, the "gangs" in Denver amount in large part to 60 year old wannabe Satanists & groups of poor, drama-queen white kids aligned with the "Juggalos," an actual gang formed around one of the worst rap acts in history. (You might as well form a street gang around Tim McGraw.) Sure, they lash out with violence but it's not very well organized. The legitimate black gangsters (I say that as a token of respect) are fewer than in coastal cities.

Remember that not everyone is willing to break the law no matter how stupid it is. It's not like every frustrated, married arsehole in his 40's had a next door hookup in the black market. More people smoke herb in CO now that it's legal, and more of them are peaceful because of it.

[UWDude]

It's obvious to the lay scientist that the two are not correlated.
This is not a mainstream news story.
The trend towards violent crime has been falling for a while.
One of the reasons is the ebbing of the crack epidemic.
However, mainstream media draws false correlations like this all the time.


More people smoke herb in CO now that it's legal, and more of them are peaceful because of it.

I highly doubt it. Marijuana being illegal did not stop its skyrocketing popularity in the past few decades. In fact, if legality/illegality had anything to do with it, then we could expect an inverse relationship: Marijuana was illegal, it becomes widespread. Now that it is legal, it will become unpopular and unused. This logic is poor at best.

Overall, the average non-MJ-smoking American citizen has no idea how much marijuana is a cultural and social tie amongst smokers. I'd say it is akin to the gay community, in that it is kind of a secret, but anyone that is gay or has lots of gay friends can tell almost immediately who is and who is not gay, even if they are in the closet. Likewise, a person who smokes marijuana can almost immediately suss out who does or does not smoke marijuana, be they in dreads or dark blue suit and red tie.

Finding a hook up, even amongst strangers, is very easy. Retail just will add to that convenience, but for the next 10 years or so, most people will still acquire it through friends. The whole transaction is usually cause for hanging out a bit.

And drugs are where they are and exist because people seek social interaction, more than any other cause. It may sound simplistic, but it was always about peer pressure.

Even tweakers, crack-heads, etc, are seeking love and acceptance, and use the feelings of the high, along with the culture of their drugs of choice to create new social bonds.

[coastie]

It's obvious to the lay scientist that the two are not correlated.
This is not a mainstream news story.
The trend towards violent crime has been falling for a while.
One of the reasons is the ebbing of the crack epidemic.
However, mainstream media draws false correlations like this all the time.



I highly doubt it. Marijuana being illegal did not stop its skyrocketing popularity in the past few decades. In fact, if legality/illegality had anything to do with it, then we could expect an inverse relationship: Marijuana was illegal, it becomes widespread. Now that it is legal, it will become unpopular and unused. This logic is poor at best.

Overall, the average non-MJ-smoking American citizen has no idea how much marijuana is a cultural and social tie amongst smokers. I'd say it is akin to the gay community, in that it is kind of a secret, but anyone that is gay or has lots of gay friends can tell almost immediately who is and who is not gay, even if they are in the closet. Likewise, a person who smokes marijuana can almost immediately suss out who does or does not smoke marijuana, be they in dreads or dark blue suit and red tie.

Finding a hook up, even amongst strangers, is very easy. Retail just will add to that convenience, but for the next 10 years or so, most people will still acquire it through friends. The whole transaction is usually cause for hanging out a bit.

And drugs are where they are and exist because people seek social interaction, more than any other cause. It may sound simplistic, but it was always about peer pressure.

Even tweakers, crack-heads, etc, are seeking love and acceptance, and use the feelings of the high, along with the culture of their drugs of choice to create new social bonds.

+rep for the unadulterated truth sir!

[Shane Harris]

For me it leads to cleaning the house, doing dishes and the like. Don't ask me why.

same lol

[Brian4Liberty]

No way to tell for sure, but the hypothesis that legalization would reduce gang "business" activity was certainly predicted, and remains a good possibility. This would be a single piece of data, so no final conclusions can be drawn, and there are many other causes and components of the murder rate statistic. It would also be good to know if the method of calculating the statistic has changed in any way.

[UWDude]

same lol

it's the 21st century's spoonful of sugar.

IIRC, a lot of people thought that whole song was a drug reference, but my reference to which is hazy.


No way to tell for sure, but the hypothesis that legalization would reduce gang "business" activity was certainly predicted, and remains a good possibility. This would be a single piece of data, so no final conclusions can be drawn, and there are many other causes and components of the murder rate statistic. It would also be good to know if the method of calculating the statistic has changed in any way.

it would take at least a decade for any actual sociological correlation to be made.

[DamianTV]

Perhaps all the pot consumption has created a society of apathetic sociopaths who would have killed you if they could muster two shits to give.

Seriously, I think the pot legalization is a very strong influencing factor on the murder rate.

[HOLLYWOOD]

I thought corporate main stream media reported there was a murder due to Marijuana legalization. I know FOX news played it like a carousel for days, tying MJ & murder together.

[mrsat_98]

Just in False flag Crisis Actor Bus heads for Colorado, whereabouts unknown. Stay tuned for another exciting episode of Fake Terror in the US.

[KurtBoyer25L]

It's obvious to the lay scientist that the two are not correlated.

Do you know anyone like that, so we can get such an opinion?


This is not a mainstream news story.

www.msnbc.com/all/does-marijuana-lower-the-crime-rate
www.policymic.com/articles/87383/3-months-later-here-s-what-denver-looks-like-since-legalizing-marijuana


However, mainstream media draws false correlations like this all the time.

How is that relevant, since according to you they're not reporting it?


Marijuana was illegal, it becomes widespread. Now that it is legal, it will become unpopular and unused. This logic is poor at best.

I couldn't have said it better, brave of you to call out your own completely irrational statement like that.


Finding a hook up, even amongst strangers, is very easy. Retail just will add to that convenience, but for the next 10 years or so, most people will still acquire it through friends. The whole transaction is usually cause for hanging out a bit.

I spend a lot of time in Missouri & use public transportation. It's nearly impossible for me to score a bag here even if money is no object. Something tells me if there was a legal dispensary nearby, I could get high more often.

When I moved to Denver I thought it would be easier. It was...marginally. But before legalization it was still a nightmare, even though I'm a musician & met other artists on a daily basis.

Except for people who were already my friends, I never liked or wanted to hang out with any of the black market dealers I met there. My roommate & I have great times hanging out w/ the legal merchants we've gotten to know recently.


Even tweakers, crack-heads, etc, are seeking love and acceptance, and use the feelings of the high, along with the culture of their drugs of choice to create new social bonds.

Yeah I mean, I am envious of the social lives of the alcoholics & tweakers I know. They can't beat the women off with a stick.

[UWDude]

Yeah I mean, I am envious of the social lives of the alcoholics & tweakers I know. They can't beat the women off with a stick.

Tweaking with ugly chicks if you are an ugly tweaker is better than doing nothing with nobody at all. Not all people have a wonderful suburban life of the rich, smart and beautiful. People generally choose their paths in search of love, companionship, comradery and validation. It is human nature.


I couldn't have said it better, brave of you to call out your own completely irrational statement like that.

Marijuana use will not decrease now that it is legal. It did not increase because it was legal. That is my logic.

[TheGrinch]

No way to tell for sure, but the hypothesis that legalization would reduce gang "business" activity was certainly predicted, and remains a good possibility. This would be a single piece of data, so no final conclusions can be drawn, and there are many other causes and components of the murder rate statistic. It would also be good to know if the method of calculating the statistic has changed in any way.

Exactly. Every other reason for drop in crime is subject to causation =/= correlation arguments, but it is undeniable that when you remove a black market, you will largely eliminate the violence and abuses associated with the illegal trade.

You take away the incentive for violence and give the harmed parties the ability to have legitimate recourse for abuses. Conversely, black markets necessitate that violence and threats of violence are used to maintain power, as it cannot be recoursed other than with more violence, since both parties are engaged in illegal activity and can't use the proper channels....

In other words, your local pot shop isn't going to stab you and steal your money, and if they do, you have plenty of recourse.

Then consider that the only ones who are willing to take the enormous risks to engage in the drug trade tend to be more dangerous people that you're enabling with more money, and of course giving them reason to protect their cash cow.

In this regard, there is no doubt that legalization has a very positive effect. In fact, I don't think you could propose a logical argument that pot causes more violence than it eliminates just by eliminating the black market.

[Brian4Liberty]

In other words, your local pot shop isn't going to stab you and steal your money, and if they do, you have plenty of recourse.


Good point.

[Zippyjuan]

Exactly. Every other reason for drop in crime is subject to causation =/= correlation arguments, but it is undeniable that when you remove a black market, you will largely eliminate the violence and abuses associated with the illegal trade.

You take away the incentive for violence and give the harmed parties the ability to have legitimate recourse for abuses. Conversely, black markets necessitate that violence and threats of violence are used to maintain power, as it cannot be recoursed other than with more violence, since both parties are engaged in illegal activity and can't use the proper channels....

In other words, your local pot shop isn't going to stab you and steal your money, and if they do, you have plenty of recourse.

Then consider that the only ones who are willing to take the enormous risks to engage in the drug trade tend to be more dangerous people that you're enabling with more money, and of course giving them reason to protect their cash cow.

In this regard, there is no doubt that legalization has a very positive effect. In fact, I don't think you could propose a logical argument that pot causes more violence than it eliminates just by eliminating the black market.

When Prohibition ended, criminals didn't go away. They just moved into other illegal activities. Gangs won't disappear because of any changes in marijuana laws.

[kcchiefs6465]

When Prohibition ended, criminals didn't go away. They just moved into other illegal activities. Gangs won't disappear because of any changes in marijuana laws.
Prohibition never ended.

[devil21]

More weed = less booze

Less booze = less violence

Less violence = less murders

I wouldn't say legalization is completely responsible for the downward trend but it isn't hurting.

[satchelmcqueen]

A point to be noted, many people wouldn't use alcohol if cannabis was an option.

I speak specifically of parolees, those on probation and the like.

Not that crimes wouldn't be committed if those people simply used marijuana, they well would be. The differences in people using alcohol and cannabis are many. Certainly petty crimes, assaults, etc. would be lowered with the legalization of marijuana. People being arrested for public intoxication, disorderly conduct, domestic violence, etc. would lower as well.

As far as murders are concerned... I'd be willing to bet that it rises back up to 'regular' levels. Sure, a few people may be more level headed and act accordingly but in a metropolitan such as Denver, I'd bet most murders are over drug turf, gang rivalries, and vendettas. They really aren't killing people for the $50 an ounce profit to be made (before 'legalization').

Cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, etc. elicit high prices because of their illegality, for one, and as importantly, for two, their addictive properties.

It's a sad market but to be clear they'd find whatever they wanted elsewhere. The prohibition of drugs has led to the exorbitant prices, gang wars and the trouble that brings, and a general black market offering all the ills it does (inferior products, scams, robberies, fraud, criminal schooling).

In short, the murder rate falling as much was more about the people having hope. It won't take long for that to diminish and with the schooling many are forced to conform their thoughts to; I doubt many even realize or care.
i agree with this. if maryjane was legal id never drink again. alcohol is bad news to me if done beyond a few drinks. i need relaxation at times and thats my only legal option and i despise it. id rather smoke.

[Root]

Prohibition never ended.
Yup.

[UWDude]

How is that relevant, since according to you they're not reporting it?

It is a relevant note I made in my statements. In media analysis, it must be noted that the media exaggerates all the time. I just wanted to state that Mainstream media uses this poor logic all the time to advance their agendas.

But it is far too early to start making correlation/causation links. You don't want to end up eating crow.

For example, people nods their heads "Yup proof, prohibition created less violence."

Then let's say a six month or one year or five year trend hits.

Suddenly, the legalization of marijuana has greatly increased violent crime, according to this standard, if the statistics happen to fall in that category. It would take at least a 7 years or ten year observation period, and of course, life is full of misery, and there can be crime trends that have nothing to do with legalization, that could swallow up the entire issue in a tsunami of crime waves. I think as Americans start to get the picture of what the "new normal" is, the more they will despair. And domestic violence, and a whole slew of other crimes will spike, or just trend up slowly, as the psychology and acceptance of the new normal is adjusted to.

I could be wrong, too. What I am saying is, in both cases, it is too early to start make correlation/causation links.

[TheGrinch]

When Prohibition ended, criminals didn't go away. They just moved into other illegal activities. Gangs won't disappear because of any changes in marijuana laws.

I didn't say that they'd disappear. I said that crimes associated with the marijuana trade will.

I could point out many reasons why your claim is oversimplified, but let's just look at it like an economy. When you remove one sector from the economy, it means less "employment" and "jobs" for these often dangerous violent criminals. Like a real economy, it's not like it's easy to just jump from one trade to another, espeically now that there is less work for more "appilcants".

If these groups have a lucrative opportunity to control another trade, then they are likely are already doing it. It's not like the marijuana trade is a full-time job for most criminals involved.

So no, you're not eliminating violent individuals, not really many things that would. What you're doing is taking away a large source of funding and incentive for violence.

You're also taking away many of the victims of violence the marijuana trade, those who don't have the incentive to move on to more dangerous drugs. I know many good people who were involved dealing and buying a little pot, some who were victims of abuses there, but would no longer have been if it were legal.

So on a micro-level, you're eliminating "employment" of many dangerous criminals. On a macro-level, you are eliminating a large source of funding for gangs and organized crime. This can only hurt situations and incentive for violence.

[Deborah K]

Look, I'm as gung-ho as the next girl regarding the gov't having control over the regulation and taxation of weed (:rolleyes: the price for legalizing it, that nobody ever wants to address = incongruent to wanting less govt, but oh well...), but really......what's the old adage about correlation and causation?

[Deborah K]

Exactly. Every other reason for drop in crime is subject to causation =/= correlation arguments, but it is undeniable that when you remove a black market, you will largely eliminate the violence and abuses associated with the illegal trade.

You take away the incentive for violence and give the harmed parties the ability to have legitimate recourse for abuses. Conversely, black markets necessitate that violence and threats of violence are used to maintain power, as it cannot be recoursed other than with more violence, since both parties are engaged in illegal activity and can't use the proper channels....

In other words, your local pot shop isn't going to stab you and steal your money, and if they do, you have plenty of recourse.

Then consider that the only ones who are willing to take the enormous risks to engage in the drug trade tend to be more dangerous people that you're enabling with more money, and of course giving them reason to protect their cash cow.

In this regard, there is no doubt that legalization has a very positive effect. In fact, I don't think you could propose a logical argument that pot causes more violence than it eliminates just by eliminating the black market.

I see you beat me to it. As far as the black market goes, I predict as the economy tumbles and we're strangled with more and more regulations, the black market will end up being the new free market.

[Tod]

But, but, but (butt, butt, butt?) I thought marijoowanna was a gateway drug?!? That's what they are always telling us!

[surf]

Look, I'm as gung-ho as the next girl regarding the gov't having control over the regulation and taxation of weed
see my state. still no retail and it'll be messed up and overpriced if/when stores open. but again, i'll just say that the "law" enforcement folks haven't been messing w/weed smokers, and that's a good thing,

[Deborah K]

see my state. still no retail and it'll be messed up and overpriced if/when stores open. but again, i'll just say that the "law" enforcement folks haven't been messing w/weed smokers, and that's a good thing,

Yeah, but is it something that mere decriminalization couldn't take care of?

[GunnyFreedom]

I dunno, this just seems obvious to me. More legitimate freedom: less crime. It's the American way.

It's also what the mainstream Social Conservatives fail to grasp: The more tightly you grip, the more rotten to contents of your fist will become. This is in fact an axiom of the Kingdom of God, which is why it baffles me that they keep missing it. :( :confused:

[dannno]

When Prohibition ended, criminals didn't go away. They just moved into other illegal activities. Gangs won't disappear because of any changes in marijuana laws.

Splain this

http://www.druglibrary.org/special/friedman/mf2-01b1.gif

There is economic incentive to be "bad" and be in a "gang" as well.

[surf]

Yeah, but is it something that mere decriminalization couldn't take care of?
hey, don't get me wrong. i'm a libertarian. it was actually somewhat difficult to vote yes on this bureaucratic clusterf#ck of a bill (that places the WA liquor control board in charge of this - they apparently needed something else to screw up after voters "privatized" liquor sales a couple years ago because state run liquor stores sucked).

but on the plus side, it's not unusual to be walking out of a Sounders game (passing cops) and get a wiff of some good ganj. it smells a little bit more like freedom (even though it's not decrim)

[puppetmaster]

It's because the cops are too fucked up to give a shit and make arrests and do the paperwork.....and To stoned to shoot unarmed people in the back and write bogus reports.

[Anti-Neocon]

When Prohibition ended, criminals didn't go away. They just moved into other illegal activities. Gangs won't disappear because of any changes in marijuana laws.
Did crime increase or decrease after the end of Prohibition?

It's basic economics. If there's a lot of money to be made from law-breaking, you can say there is a demand for law-breaking, and people who otherwise wouldn't be criminals will jump in to fit that demand. The inverse is also true. Once law-breaking isn't as lucrative, people who would've been criminals now won't be.

Criminals did go away after Prohibition. I don't know why you deny this.