Bradley in DC
12-01-2007, 08:47 AM
[Andrew Sullivan, among others, have taken issue with the methodology of the poll]
http://www.hunter.cuny.edu/news/#hunterpoll
Hunter Poll Finds Clinton Has Support of 63% of LGB Likely Voters
In the first public, political survey ever conducted by a university-based team of scholars with a nationally representative sample of lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGBs) Americans, results released today show that Senator Hillary Clinton has the support of 63 percent of LGB likely voters in the Democratic primaries, followed by Senator Barack Obama with 22 percent and John Edwards with 7 percent. The Hunter College Poll also finds that during the process of “coming out,” LGBs become more liberal and more engaged in the political process than the general population.
“We found a stunning transformation in political views in the LGB community of a magnitude that is virtually unparalleled among social groupings in the U.S. population,” said political science professor Kenneth Sherrill of Hunter College, one of the study’s investigators. The Hunter College Poll was conducted with 768 respondents by Knowledge Networks, Inc. from November 15th through November 26th, 2007.
Other findings include:
• Nine in 10 LGB likely voters will vote in the Democratic primaries and 21 percent say that lesbian and gay rights will be the most important issue influencing their vote in 2008.
• 72 percent of LGB likely voters consider Senator Clinton a supporter of gay rights, with Senator Obama at 52 percent and former Senator Edwards at 41 percent. On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was at 37 percent, followed by Senator John McCain at 13 percent.
“These findings suggest opportunities. Clinton benefits from a high turnout in this very Democratic bloc; her opponents would benefit from making their stated support for gay rights more visible to LGB voters,” said Murray Edelman, a distinguished scholar at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute and one of the study’s investigators.
• 33 percent of all respondents say they are “very interested” in politics compared to 22 percent of the Knowledge Networks general population sample. And 36 percent said they became more interested in politics during their “coming out” period.
•LGBs were more likely than the general population to have contacted a government official in the past 12 months (23 percent to 16 percent).
“These levels of civic engagement indicate that gay people can have a bigger influence on public policy than suggested by their relatively small share of the population,” said Patrick J. Egan, an assistant professor at New York University and another of the study’s investigators.
• Asked what gay rights goals are “extremely important,” LGBs chose:
goal--% saying goal is “extremely important”
enacting employment non-discrimination laws 59%
protections from bias crimes 59%
securing spousal benefits 58%
AIDS funding 53%
legalizing same-sex marriage 50%
rights of transgendered people 36%
ending the military’s ban on being openly gay 36%
“The top priorities for LGBs bear little resemblance to the debates that have dominated the headlines,” said Egan.
•When asked about the proposed federal law making it illegal to discriminate against lesbians, gays, and bisexuals in employment, LGBs (by a margin of 60 to 37 percent) said that those seeking to pass the law were wrong to remove protections for transgendered people in order to get the votes necessary for passage in Congress.
The Hunter College Poll was funded by a grant from the Human Rights Campaign Foundation. Sole control over the design of the study’s questionnaire and analysis of the data were maintained by the study’s investigators. The survey was conducted among those who identified themselves as lesbian, gay or bisexual to Knowledge Networks, which recruits its nationally representative sample of respondents by telephone and administers surveys to them via the Internet. The survey has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.
***POLL DATA BELOW***
THE 2007 HUNTER COLLEGE POLL
NATIONAL SURVEY OF LESBIANS, GAYS AND BISEXUALS
NOVEMBER 15-26, 2007
N = 768
Campaign 2008
(includes only those respondents saying they would
“definitely” or “probably” vote in the 2008 primaries/caucuses) (N = 579)
VOTE IN DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Next year, are you more likely to vote in a Democratic presidential primary or caucus, or a Republican primary or caucus?
plan to vote in…
% of LGB likely voters
Democratic primary/caucus 86.9
Republican primary/caucus 13.1
INTENDED VOTE IN PRIMARY/CAUCUS
If the 2008 {Democratic/Republican} presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: ROTATE: {(if plan to vote in Democratic primary) Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel} {(if plan to vote in Republican primary) Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul or Fred Thompson} for whom would you vote?
Democratic Primary Preference
% of LGB Democratic likely voters
Republican Primary Preference
% of LGB Republican likely voters
Hillary Clinton 62.8
Rudy Giuliani 50.0
Barack Obama 22.3
John McCain 23.0
John Edwards 6.5
Mitt Romney 11.3
Dennis Kucinich 4.5
Fred Thompson 10.0
Bill Richardson 1.2
Mike Huckabee 3.8
Chris Dodd 1.1
Ron Paul 1.0
Joe Biden 1.0
Tom Tancredo 0.6
Refused 0.6
Refused 0.3
(N = 501)
(N = 78)
CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of…
% of LGB likely voters
very
favorable
favorable
unfavorable
very
unfavorable
don’t know enough to rate
Hillary Clinton
47.5
34.3
4.3
7.4
6.5
Barack Obama
25.7
47.1
8.0
7.7
11.5
John Edwards
14.0
48.8
12.1
4.0
21.1
Dennis Kucinich
9.3
18.7
10.4
4.8
56.8
Rudy Giuliani
3.5
24.2
28.7
26
17.6
John McCain
3.0
26.5
27.9
16.6
26.1
Bill Richardson
2.7
21.2
12.8
5.9
57.3
Ron Paul
2.4
10.2
12.1
7.0
68.3
Mike Huckabee
1.8
6.3
17.1
8.8
66.1
Fred Thompson
1.5
11.1
22.3
19.9
45.1
Mitt Romney
1.2
10.3
20.9
23.7
43.9
PERCEIVED CANDIDATE SUPPORT FOR GAY AND LESBIAN RIGHTS
How strong a supporter or opponent of gay and lesbian rights would you say each candidate is?
% of LGB likely voters
strong supporter
supporter
opponent
strong opponent
don’t know enough to rate
Hillary Clinton
22.3
49.5
2.1
2
24.1
Dennis Kucinich
16.3
10.9
3.1
1.7
68.1
Barack Obama
12.6
39
10.1
1.2
37.2
John Edwards
5.4
35.5
13.4
6.4
39.2
Bill Richardson
2.5
16.8
7.1
4
69.6
John McCain
1.8
10.9
21.3
16.6
49.4
Ron Paul
1.5
7.5
7.1
4
79.9
Rudy Giuliani
1.2
35.7
15.2
7.9
40.1
Fred Thompson
0.2
6.1
10.9
22.6
60.1
Mike Huckabee
0.1
2.1
10.1
13.8
74
Mitt Romney
0
3.9
13.7
29
53.4
INTENDED VOTE IN GENERAL ELECTION
SPLIT SAMPLE:
If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were ROTATE: Rudy Giuliani, the Republican and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, for whom would you probably vote?
If the 2008 election for president were being held today, would you probably vote for the ROTATE: Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?
http://www.hunter.cuny.edu/news/#hunterpoll
Hunter Poll Finds Clinton Has Support of 63% of LGB Likely Voters
In the first public, political survey ever conducted by a university-based team of scholars with a nationally representative sample of lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGBs) Americans, results released today show that Senator Hillary Clinton has the support of 63 percent of LGB likely voters in the Democratic primaries, followed by Senator Barack Obama with 22 percent and John Edwards with 7 percent. The Hunter College Poll also finds that during the process of “coming out,” LGBs become more liberal and more engaged in the political process than the general population.
“We found a stunning transformation in political views in the LGB community of a magnitude that is virtually unparalleled among social groupings in the U.S. population,” said political science professor Kenneth Sherrill of Hunter College, one of the study’s investigators. The Hunter College Poll was conducted with 768 respondents by Knowledge Networks, Inc. from November 15th through November 26th, 2007.
Other findings include:
• Nine in 10 LGB likely voters will vote in the Democratic primaries and 21 percent say that lesbian and gay rights will be the most important issue influencing their vote in 2008.
• 72 percent of LGB likely voters consider Senator Clinton a supporter of gay rights, with Senator Obama at 52 percent and former Senator Edwards at 41 percent. On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was at 37 percent, followed by Senator John McCain at 13 percent.
“These findings suggest opportunities. Clinton benefits from a high turnout in this very Democratic bloc; her opponents would benefit from making their stated support for gay rights more visible to LGB voters,” said Murray Edelman, a distinguished scholar at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute and one of the study’s investigators.
• 33 percent of all respondents say they are “very interested” in politics compared to 22 percent of the Knowledge Networks general population sample. And 36 percent said they became more interested in politics during their “coming out” period.
•LGBs were more likely than the general population to have contacted a government official in the past 12 months (23 percent to 16 percent).
“These levels of civic engagement indicate that gay people can have a bigger influence on public policy than suggested by their relatively small share of the population,” said Patrick J. Egan, an assistant professor at New York University and another of the study’s investigators.
• Asked what gay rights goals are “extremely important,” LGBs chose:
goal--% saying goal is “extremely important”
enacting employment non-discrimination laws 59%
protections from bias crimes 59%
securing spousal benefits 58%
AIDS funding 53%
legalizing same-sex marriage 50%
rights of transgendered people 36%
ending the military’s ban on being openly gay 36%
“The top priorities for LGBs bear little resemblance to the debates that have dominated the headlines,” said Egan.
•When asked about the proposed federal law making it illegal to discriminate against lesbians, gays, and bisexuals in employment, LGBs (by a margin of 60 to 37 percent) said that those seeking to pass the law were wrong to remove protections for transgendered people in order to get the votes necessary for passage in Congress.
The Hunter College Poll was funded by a grant from the Human Rights Campaign Foundation. Sole control over the design of the study’s questionnaire and analysis of the data were maintained by the study’s investigators. The survey was conducted among those who identified themselves as lesbian, gay or bisexual to Knowledge Networks, which recruits its nationally representative sample of respondents by telephone and administers surveys to them via the Internet. The survey has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.
***POLL DATA BELOW***
THE 2007 HUNTER COLLEGE POLL
NATIONAL SURVEY OF LESBIANS, GAYS AND BISEXUALS
NOVEMBER 15-26, 2007
N = 768
Campaign 2008
(includes only those respondents saying they would
“definitely” or “probably” vote in the 2008 primaries/caucuses) (N = 579)
VOTE IN DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Next year, are you more likely to vote in a Democratic presidential primary or caucus, or a Republican primary or caucus?
plan to vote in…
% of LGB likely voters
Democratic primary/caucus 86.9
Republican primary/caucus 13.1
INTENDED VOTE IN PRIMARY/CAUCUS
If the 2008 {Democratic/Republican} presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: ROTATE: {(if plan to vote in Democratic primary) Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich or Mike Gravel} {(if plan to vote in Republican primary) Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul or Fred Thompson} for whom would you vote?
Democratic Primary Preference
% of LGB Democratic likely voters
Republican Primary Preference
% of LGB Republican likely voters
Hillary Clinton 62.8
Rudy Giuliani 50.0
Barack Obama 22.3
John McCain 23.0
John Edwards 6.5
Mitt Romney 11.3
Dennis Kucinich 4.5
Fred Thompson 10.0
Bill Richardson 1.2
Mike Huckabee 3.8
Chris Dodd 1.1
Ron Paul 1.0
Joe Biden 1.0
Tom Tancredo 0.6
Refused 0.6
Refused 0.3
(N = 501)
(N = 78)
CANDIDATE FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of…
% of LGB likely voters
very
favorable
favorable
unfavorable
very
unfavorable
don’t know enough to rate
Hillary Clinton
47.5
34.3
4.3
7.4
6.5
Barack Obama
25.7
47.1
8.0
7.7
11.5
John Edwards
14.0
48.8
12.1
4.0
21.1
Dennis Kucinich
9.3
18.7
10.4
4.8
56.8
Rudy Giuliani
3.5
24.2
28.7
26
17.6
John McCain
3.0
26.5
27.9
16.6
26.1
Bill Richardson
2.7
21.2
12.8
5.9
57.3
Ron Paul
2.4
10.2
12.1
7.0
68.3
Mike Huckabee
1.8
6.3
17.1
8.8
66.1
Fred Thompson
1.5
11.1
22.3
19.9
45.1
Mitt Romney
1.2
10.3
20.9
23.7
43.9
PERCEIVED CANDIDATE SUPPORT FOR GAY AND LESBIAN RIGHTS
How strong a supporter or opponent of gay and lesbian rights would you say each candidate is?
% of LGB likely voters
strong supporter
supporter
opponent
strong opponent
don’t know enough to rate
Hillary Clinton
22.3
49.5
2.1
2
24.1
Dennis Kucinich
16.3
10.9
3.1
1.7
68.1
Barack Obama
12.6
39
10.1
1.2
37.2
John Edwards
5.4
35.5
13.4
6.4
39.2
Bill Richardson
2.5
16.8
7.1
4
69.6
John McCain
1.8
10.9
21.3
16.6
49.4
Ron Paul
1.5
7.5
7.1
4
79.9
Rudy Giuliani
1.2
35.7
15.2
7.9
40.1
Fred Thompson
0.2
6.1
10.9
22.6
60.1
Mike Huckabee
0.1
2.1
10.1
13.8
74
Mitt Romney
0
3.9
13.7
29
53.4
INTENDED VOTE IN GENERAL ELECTION
SPLIT SAMPLE:
If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were ROTATE: Rudy Giuliani, the Republican and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, for whom would you probably vote?
If the 2008 election for president were being held today, would you probably vote for the ROTATE: Republican candidate or would you probably vote for the Democratic candidate?