ssunlimited
05-16-2014, 11:26 PM
The new projection reflects the conclusion of several primary elections -- North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia -- and, more importantly, the inclusion of candidate fundraising through the first quarter of 2014 and, for some races, through the end of April. (The relevant Federal Election Commission data are here.)
Our earliest forecast showed that Republicans were already heavily favored due to the national landscape and the partisan complexion of the states holding Senate elections this year. We then showed that incorporating a measure of the "quality" of the candidates -- prior experience in elective office -- made things even more favorable to Republicans. Chris Cillizza and I discussed that forecast here. As we would expect, Republicans are recruiting and nominating relatively experienced and therefore more electable candidates.
Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/16/republicans-have-a-77-chance-of-taking-the-senate/
Our earliest forecast showed that Republicans were already heavily favored due to the national landscape and the partisan complexion of the states holding Senate elections this year. We then showed that incorporating a measure of the "quality" of the candidates -- prior experience in elective office -- made things even more favorable to Republicans. Chris Cillizza and I discussed that forecast here. As we would expect, Republicans are recruiting and nominating relatively experienced and therefore more electable candidates.
Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/05/16/republicans-have-a-77-chance-of-taking-the-senate/