MichaelDavis
05-10-2014, 11:41 PM
The 2008 presidential election showed us that a negative election can turn a popular politician into a polarizing figure. When the race began, Hillary Clinton was the odds-on favorite. By the end of the Democratic primary, however, John McCain lead Hillary Clinton in many polls while Barack Obama lead John McCain. If we want the best indication of what 2016 will look like, we must turn to Florida's 13th congressional district special election. This is a swing district that Barack Obama carried twice. The Democratic nominee was Alex Sink, a well known former cabinet secretary who had narrowly lost a gubernatorial election four years prior. She had a high level of name recognition and was uncontested in her primary. The Republican field was a bunch of no-name candidates. Sink lead each Republican by about 20 points at the beginning of the race. After a contentious GOP primary, the Republicans coalesced around their nominee, David Jolly. The once popular Sink soon faltered in polls because of Democratic unpopularity, disapproval of Barack Obama, and increased name recognition for the Republican nominee. Jolly, the Republican, ended up winning despite Sink's 20 point lead (51%-31%) at the beginning of the election. If this race shows us anything, it's that early poll numbers do not reflect the end result.