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muzzled dogg
05-06-2014, 01:54 PM
thanks


--


[edit] results here:


Here's the official NCBoE results page:
http://enr.ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05/06/2014

Polls close at 7:30pm ET.

There's also a few other congressional Liberty candidates to watch at that link:

Walter Jones
Vince Coakley
Mike Steinberg
Mark Walker
Mark Meadows


Also this: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/north-carolina/#.U2lOIWSW_1X


AP's results will be here:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NC_US_Senate_0506.html

devil21
05-06-2014, 03:00 PM
Here's the official NCBoE results page:
http://enr.ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05/06/2014

Polls close at 7:30pm ET.

---------------------

There's also other congressional Liberty candidates to watch at that link:

Walter Jones - REP District 3
Vince Coakley - REP District 12
Mike Steinberg - REP District 9
Mark Walker - REP District 6
Mike Causey (fellow traveler) - REP District 6
Mark Meadows - unopposed, not in results

NC State Liberty candidates (from candidates4liberty.com)

North Carolina State House 3rd:
Michael Speciale (Incumbent)
North Carolina State House 6th:
Mattie Lawson (running)
North Carolina State House 15th:
Jim Morton (running)
North Carolina State House 82nd:
Larry Pittman (incumbent)
North Carolina State House 93rd:
Johnathan Jordan (incumbent)
North Carolina State House 119th:
Mike Clampitt (running)

North Carolina State Senate 16th:
Molotov Mitchell (running)
North Carolina State Senate 38th:
Richard Rivette (running)

lib3rtarian
05-06-2014, 03:04 PM
Also this: http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/north-carolina/#.U2lOIWSW_1X

jkr
05-06-2014, 03:20 PM
make this the official thread:toady:

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 03:21 PM
This might be a bit off topic, but did anyone else besides me prefer the SBE's old election results viewer? We were able to view results by precinct, but now it looks like we have to download a zip file if we want to view results in that detail.

tsai3904
05-06-2014, 04:31 PM
AP's results will be here:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NC_US_Senate_0506.html

jct74
05-06-2014, 05:23 PM
make this the official thread:toady:

ok, i made it an official thread.

hope you don't mind the title change muzzled dogg.

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 05:26 PM
Five more minutes!

Also, Meadows doesn't have a primary challenger.

Southron
05-06-2014, 05:26 PM
Lets win this thing outright.

georgiaboy
05-06-2014, 05:29 PM
BUMP

tsai3904
05-06-2014, 05:29 PM
As I said in another thread, in the May 2012 primary, early voting results began reporting at around 7:45 pm ET.

orenbus
05-06-2014, 05:37 PM
News Radio 680 covering the returns

http://www.wptf.com/listenlive.html


Election Coverage

7:00pm - 9:00pm
Live Coverage

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 05:38 PM
First results are out! Tillis and Brannon tied with 45 votes. xD

William Tell
05-06-2014, 05:39 PM
Indiana and Ohio results?

Brett85
05-06-2014, 05:39 PM
Really strange results so far. Two no name candidates are out in front.

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 05:43 PM
Very early, but going by Politico's results, Tillis has a sizable lead on Brannon thus far. Still too soon.

Crashland
05-06-2014, 05:46 PM
The spread on the first 16 precincts is really odd:


NAME ON BALLOT Party Votes Pct
Edward Kryn REP 136 20.09 %
Alex Lee Bradshaw REP 135 19.94 %
Jim Snyder REP 91 13.44 %
Heather Grant REP 90 13.29 %
Ted Alexander REP 90 13.29 %
Thom Tillis REP 45 6.65 %
Mark Harris REP 45 6.65 %
Greg Brannon REP 45 6.65 %

Brett85
05-06-2014, 05:47 PM
Hopefully these are just early voting results on Politico. Brannon seemed to be gaining momentum late.

orenbus
05-06-2014, 05:47 PM
Very early, but going by Politico's results, Tillis has a sizable lead on Brannon thus far. Still too soon.

Odd that Politico's numbers aren't matching what the official numbers are being reported on the state board of elections website.

http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/senate/north-carolina/#.U2lOIWSW_1X

http://enr.ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05%2f06%2f2014

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 05:48 PM
Election board site just updated, percentages somewhat matching Politico's results.

Tillis leading, Harris edging Brannon by 10 votes, but still very early.

Tywysog Cymru
05-06-2014, 05:52 PM
During the 2010 KY primary results, was Rand Paul always in the lead?

William Tell
05-06-2014, 05:54 PM
The spread on the first 16 precincts is really odd:


NAME ON BALLOT Party Votes Pct
Edward Kryn REP 136 20.09 %
Alex Lee Bradshaw REP 135 19.94 %
Jim Snyder REP 91 13.44 %
Heather Grant REP 90 13.29 %
Ted Alexander REP 90 13.29 %
Thom Tillis REP 45 6.65 %
Mark Harris REP 45 6.65 %
Greg Brannon REP 45 6.65 %


I think that was a test, not real numbers. Election sites do that, I don't know why.

Southron
05-06-2014, 05:58 PM
Brannon in 2nd Tillis over 40

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 05:59 PM
Eesh. Going by the NC SBE site, Tillis already has almost double the votes Brannon has. If I didn't know any better, I'd think Tillis already had this sewn up going by those type of early results...

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 05:59 PM
17.5% in:

Tillis 46.5%
Brannon 24.16
Harris 18.73
Grant 5.47

CPUd
05-06-2014, 05:59 PM
http://i.imgur.com/zMK76oR.gif

Brett85
05-06-2014, 06:01 PM
I guess this is another reminder that internal polls don't mean anything.

r3volution 3.0
05-06-2014, 06:03 PM
First county to report 100% (Clay) has Brannon in the lead (by a little under 1%)

Tywysog Cymru
05-06-2014, 06:04 PM
Brannon beat Tillis in Clay County, the only county with full results.

Southron
05-06-2014, 06:06 PM
My county 0 so far.

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 06:08 PM
37.06% in:

Tillis 46.27%
Brannon 26.15
Harris 17
Grant 5.59

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 06:09 PM
If Harris weren't in this race, I do wonder if all of his votes would have gone to Brannon or Tillis. Tillis is above 40 percent now, but he appears to be wavering.

Hyperion
05-06-2014, 06:11 PM
GOP primary voters really suck everywhere outside Kentucky.

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 06:13 PM
Tillis still above 40 and climbing...I dunno, this seems done and done so far...

Brett85
05-06-2014, 06:14 PM
How exactly are 37% of precincts reporting but only 2.94% of ballots cast have been counted? I guess these are just small towns coming in so far.

r3volution 3.0
05-06-2014, 06:14 PM
I don't know North Carolina well enough to interpret these results: is Brannon doing relatively better in urban or in rural areas?

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 06:14 PM
This SBE link (http://enr.ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05%2f06%2f2014&county_id=0) for some reason is giving a bit faster results.

45.5% in:
Tillis 47.36%
Brannon 25.38
Harris 16.84

eleganz
05-06-2014, 06:17 PM
Remember guys, these are early votes.

2010 the primary vote total was about 350k. Remember how the Dem surged past Cucinelli at the very end? still possible? sure...!

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 06:17 PM
How exactly are 37% of precincts reporting but only 2.94% of ballots cast have been counted? I guess these are just small towns coming in so far.

It could be, or it could just be the turnout rate vs registered voters. When we had the other results system, we were able to see whether it was rural/urban areas, but it doesn't seem as though we can sort it like such with this system.

My small county, though, is still at 0.

Shane Harris
05-06-2014, 06:18 PM
GOP primary voters really suck everywhere outside Kentucky.


They are old.

Crashland
05-06-2014, 06:20 PM
How exactly are 37% of precincts reporting but only 2.94% of ballots cast have been counted? I guess these are just small towns coming in so far.

Maybe the ballots cast is out of all eligible voters? Judging from past North Carolina GOP primaries none of them are even close to the 6.5 million it says is the total. Past primaries have had fewer than 1 million voters, even the presidential GOP primary in 2012.

devil21
05-06-2014, 06:23 PM
How exactly are 37% of precincts reporting but only 2.94% of ballots cast have been counted? I guess these are just small towns coming in so far.

6million+ is total registered voters in the state, not actual votes cast today.

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 06:23 PM
Better results. (http://enr.ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05%2f06%2f2014) (So many differing results depending on how the web address parameters are--ridiculous!)

45.47% in--but actually MORE precincts reporting, and more ballots cast, than my previous report: (281K ballots cast.)
Tillis 46.13%
Brannon 28.03
Harris 16.01
--
Now 39.85% (http://enr.ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05%2f06%2f2014&county_id=0) in, but more votes:
Tillis 45.72%
Brannon 28.28
Harris 15.99

eduardo89
05-06-2014, 06:24 PM
How exactly are 37% of precincts reporting but only 2.94% of ballots cast have been counted? I guess these are just small towns coming in so far.

Because as long as a precinct reports one vote they are counted in the 'precincts reporting.' So a precinct can count and report 0.0000001% of the votes cast and it would already count towards the number of precincts reporting tally.

ctiger2
05-06-2014, 06:30 PM
Huge Bummer...

Crashland
05-06-2014, 06:30 PM
Looking pretty bad for Brannon. Tillis will have to do really bad in the remaining vote to get under 40, and we already have 350,000 votes in.

jkob
05-06-2014, 06:30 PM
looking like a long night

jkob
05-06-2014, 06:31 PM
Looking pretty bad for Brannon. Tillis will have to do really bad in the remaining vote to get under 40, and we already have 350,000 votes in.

he only has to get 40%? wth?

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 06:32 PM
he only has to get 40%? wth?

North Carolina's runoff rules. And with Tillis consistently staying above 40 percent, unless a miracle happened, he unfortunately has this...

r3volution 3.0
05-06-2014, 06:32 PM
we already have 350,000 votes in.

Where are you getting that figure?

According to Politico it's about 105k.

P.S. Hmm...speaking of Politico, they had listed Clay County as 100% reporting, now it says 11.1% reporting.

devil21
05-06-2014, 06:33 PM
I don't know North Carolina well enough to interpret these results: is Brannon doing relatively better in urban or in rural areas?

Tillis is handily winning most counties in and around Charlotte. Charlotte is the most populated region of the state and is Tillis' local area. They are neck and neck in Raleigh, where Tillis is House Speaker but Greg is from the Raleigh area. Random counties I selected show Tillis winning but not high turnout. IMHO, unless Greg jumps way ahead of Tillis in the Raleigh area (Wake, Franklin and others) Tillis will break 40%.

The establishment putting up Harris to take votes from Brannon appears to have worked. :(

orenbus
05-06-2014, 06:33 PM
it's over gg :mad:

http://blog.stearnsjohnson.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/angry.jpg

CPUd
05-06-2014, 06:33 PM
Brannon will probably need to get > 30%

Brett85
05-06-2014, 06:34 PM
Well, at least Walter Jones is winning. I don't consider him to be a liberty candidate, but I'm happy any time a Bush era neoconservative loses.

jkob
05-06-2014, 06:35 PM
North Carolina's runoff rules. And with Tillis consistently staying above 40 percent, unless a miracle happened, he unfortunately has this...

I don't understand the logic of 40%, the majority of the voters didn't vote for the nominee.

Inkblots
05-06-2014, 06:37 PM
I don't understand the logic of 40%, the majority of the voters didn't vote for the nominee.

The logic is "Meh, close enough".

r3volution 3.0
05-06-2014, 06:38 PM
Tillis is handily winning most counties in and around Charlotte. Charlotte is the most populated region of the state and is Tillis' local area. They are neck and neck in Raleigh, where Tillis is House Speaker but Greg is from the Raleigh area. Random counties I selected show Tillis winning but not high turnout. IMHO, unless Greg jumps way ahead of Tillis in the Raleigh area (Wake, Franklin and others) Tillis will break 40%.

Thanks


The establishment putting up Harris to take votes from Brannon appears to have worked. :(

No doubt that's his role, but I wasn't expecting a Brannon win tonight: I'm just hoping we get a run-off.

RonPaulMall
05-06-2014, 06:39 PM
Tillis is handily winning most counties in and around Charlotte. Charlotte is the most populated region of the state and is Tillis' local area. They are neck and neck in Raleigh, where Tillis is House Speaker but Greg is from the Raleigh area. Random counties I selected show Tillis winning but not high turnout. IMHO, unless Greg jumps way ahead of Tillis in the Raleigh area (Wake, Franklin and others) Tillis will break 40%.

The establishment putting up Harris to take votes from Brannon appears to have worked. :(

Don't see how Harris hurt us. Even if we got all his votes, we'd still be behind Tillis. And we wouldn't get all his votes, so if he was out of the race Tillis would be even further above 40%. What we probably needed was another Mark Harris like candidate. Another guy gettign 15% of the vote would probably have been just enough to drive Tillis in to that 40% danger zone.

CPUd
05-06-2014, 06:39 PM
Where are you getting that figure?

According to Politico it's about 105k.

P.S. Hmm...speaking of Politico, they had listed Clay County as 100% reporting, now it says 11.1% reporting.

350K total. 105K voting GOP in this race.

devil21
05-06-2014, 06:39 PM
Just on local news: BOE website is having problems! Numbers issues! Hold on folks!

eta: something about the numbers feeds into the website are bouncing around, precinct reported % went up then back down, etc.

r3volution 3.0
05-06-2014, 06:41 PM
350K total. 105K voting GOP in this race.

gotcha

Inkblots
05-06-2014, 06:42 PM
Just on local news: BOE website is having problems! Numbers issues! Hold on folks!

eta: something about the numbers feeds into the website are bouncing around, precinct reported % went up then back down, etc.

Shynoligans.

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 06:43 PM
If Tillis walks with this, McConnell marks this as a win in his column.

Southron
05-06-2014, 06:44 PM
Looks like Karl Rove has bested us.

r3volution 3.0
05-06-2014, 06:44 PM
Tillis has been gradually dropping since results started coming in (started around 47%, now below 45%)...it's not over yet.

jkob
05-06-2014, 06:45 PM
There is no way Tillis is beating Hagan in November, the GOP maybe cost themselves control of the senate. I'm sure that doesn't matter to the Karl Roves of the world.

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 06:46 PM
Tillis has been gradually dropping since results started coming in (started around 47%, now below 45%)...it's not over yet.

I'm cautious, but at this point, it would take a bonafide miracle or every single voter uncounted so far would have to be for Brannon for him to pull this off.

Tywysog Cymru
05-06-2014, 06:47 PM
Tillis has been gradually dropping since results started coming in (started around 47%, now below 45%)...it's not over yet.

I haven't lost hope yet.

Also, FOX News seems to be more interested in Monica Lewinski and Lynne Cheney's opinion of Hillary Clinton.

CPUd
05-06-2014, 06:48 PM
New numbers Tillis 44.73%

Crashland
05-06-2014, 06:48 PM
Tillis now down a bit to 44.7%
26% precincts reporting

eleganz
05-06-2014, 06:49 PM
Tillis now down a bit to 44.7%
26% precincts reporting

He has been steadily declining, good stuff.

Crashland
05-06-2014, 06:50 PM
http://i.imgur.com/zMK76oR.gif

lol, these election sites should learn from realtime stock tickers so I don't have to keep mashing F5

r3volution 3.0
05-06-2014, 06:55 PM
I'm cautious, but at this point, it would take a bonafide miracle or every single voter uncounted so far would have to be for Brannon for him to pull this off.

You mean, for Brannon to win outright?

If so, yes, that would take a miracle.

But I think a run-off is still in reach.

devil21
05-06-2014, 06:55 PM
Im not active on social networking but the news report on BOE website issues (was on Time Warner Cable News channel) said social media is picking up with reports from journalists that the numbers are bouncing around irrationally. One anchor said "I hope this doesn't turn into another Florida ballot!"

devil21
05-06-2014, 06:57 PM
Yep, the precincts reported number just went from well into the 1500 range down to 700 range. The vote totals didnt change! WTF is going on?

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 07:00 PM
Yep, the precincts reported number just went from well into the 1500 range down to 700 range. The vote totals didnt change! WTF is going on?

I have no clue. In one local race I'm following, the actual vote totals (for each candidate) went down by certain amounts, so who knows what's happening?

eleganz
05-06-2014, 07:00 PM
Runoff is within reach I think!

jct74
05-06-2014, 07:02 PM
I have no clue. In one local race I'm following, the actual vote totals (for each candidate) went down by certain amounts, so who knows what's happening?

same thing is happening in Walter Jones race

devil21
05-06-2014, 07:02 PM
Runoff is within reach I think!

That's just one county. Here's the state wide total link: http://enr.ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05/06/2014&county_id=0

Brian4Liberty
05-06-2014, 07:03 PM
Megan Kelly is talking about this race with some idiot. Apparently, Tillis is the greatest thing for the GOP since Reagan. :rolleyes:

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 07:03 PM
Runoff is within reach I think!

If Brannon miraculously climbed to 40 percent before either someone calls this race or all the votes have been counted, sure. That'd be nice.

Matt Collins
05-06-2014, 07:04 PM
lol, these election sites should learn from realtime stock tickers so I don't have to keep mashing F5
It's run by the government, what do you expect?

AuH20
05-06-2014, 07:05 PM
Megan Kelly is talking about this race with some idiot. Apparently, Tillis is the greatest thing for the GOP since Reagan. :rolleyes:

"If Tillis wins, Hagan may as well drop out." That's what that idiot said.

Tywysog Cymru
05-06-2014, 07:06 PM
"If Tillis wins, Hagan may as well drop out." That's what that idiot said.

It's painful to listen.

Matt Collins
05-06-2014, 07:07 PM
GOP primary voters really suck everywhere outside Kentucky.
No, they are largely the same everywhere.

Voters vote based upon how they feel, and how they feel is determined by what they know. What they know comes from the media and/or the campaigns themselves. Whenever you think "voters sure are dumb" what you are really saying is that "someone didn't do a good enough job communicating their message to them"

Southron
05-06-2014, 07:09 PM
"If Tillis wins, Hagan may as well drop out." That's what that idiot said.

If Tillis wins then its back to voting for the Libertarian candidate just so I can sleep at night knowing I didnt help put any of them in office.

Eric21ND
05-06-2014, 07:10 PM
With more money and more time Brannon could've won this. The tide was beginning to turn. He needed more tv ads in my opinion.

Brett85
05-06-2014, 07:11 PM
The numbers for Jones' race are completely different when you compare the Politico website with the NC SBE site. He's up by 9% in Politico and down by 2% on the NC SBE site.

RonZeplin
05-06-2014, 07:12 PM
They are old.

They were once young stupid Republicans, but with perseverance they've become old stupid Republicans. This is what you have to look forward to working within the D&R party.

Brian4Liberty
05-06-2014, 07:13 PM
No, they are largely the same everywhere.

Voters vote based upon how they feel, and how they feel is determined by what they know. What they know comes from the media and/or the campaigns themselves. Whenever you think "voters sure are dumb" what you are really saying is that "someone didn't do a good enough job communicating their message to them"

If Tillis wins this outright, what it means is that Rove will be able to say "fuck the grassroots, all I need is enough money from a few special interests to buy any election."

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 07:15 PM
If Tillis wins this outright, what it means is that Rove will be able to say "fuck the grassroots, all I need is enough money from a few special interests to buy any election."

Pretty much. They'll say, 'See? FreedomWorks, Rand Paul, Mike Lee and so on backed Brannon and he lost.' It would validate what McConnell said about crushing TP folks and validate those who feel that TP candidates aren't electable since few win primaries, let alone general elections. Tillis' victory, should it happen, would be the first of that. If others like Cochran, Graham (likely to retain his seat) and others do the same, people would say the TP, at least on the national level, is all talk and no results.

devil21
05-06-2014, 07:16 PM
The total precinct number just went up from 2606 to 2651. This is a clusterf.

Brian4Liberty
05-06-2014, 07:17 PM
Brannon should give a speech right now, tell his supporters thank you and have a great party, and that he will not be conceding until all of the votes are counted.

Southron
05-06-2014, 07:18 PM
I cant even get the Sboe site to load anymore.

devil21
05-06-2014, 07:20 PM
I cant even get the Sboe site to load anymore.

If I refresh it hangs. If I close the tab and copy/paste the link back in it works. This is a joke.

How the hell does the NC BoE not know how many precincts there are until they've counted half of them???

eta: a lot of shills showed up to this thread.

jbauer
05-06-2014, 07:21 PM
Looks like Karl Rove has bested us.

...............you can only fight the law so long and eventually money catches up with you. If there was one guy I wanted to get into the Senate in 14 this was our guy.

Hopefully this isn't the leaves in the tea for 2016. Mexico and Canada look pretty decent tonight.

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 07:22 PM
So if Tillis is still above 40 percent when at least 50 percent of the precincts have been called, does that mean they'll just automatically call it for him?

jbauer
05-06-2014, 07:23 PM
There is no way Tillis is beating Hagan in November, the GOP maybe cost themselves control of the senate. I'm sure that doesn't matter to the Karl Roves of the world.

They don't give a shit. They don't give a damn about the constitution. Its all about benefiting "their" people rather than the dem's people. Warfare vs Welfare.

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 07:24 PM
Politico predicts Tillis.

asurfaholic
05-06-2014, 07:24 PM
its sickening. the local GOP office was completely out in force and all pro Brannon. there was no Tillis presence and everyone i talk to likes brannon. Nobody knows or talks about Tillis. I think this whole crap is rigged. The people are for Brannon, how its not translating to votes is beyond me.

Inkblots
05-06-2014, 07:25 PM
How the hell does the NC BoE not know how many precincts there are until they've counted half of them???

The electoral map of North Carolina exists at all times in a state of superposition between all its theoretically possible states. Only by directly observing the results of the vote can one collapse the wave function and thereby determine a number of precincts.

pulp8721
05-06-2014, 07:26 PM
Politico predicts Tillis.

463851677385105408


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwQoF105RO4

Mr.NoSmile
05-06-2014, 07:28 PM
its sickening. the local GOP office was completely out in force and all pro Brannon. there was no Tillis presence and everyone i talk to likes brannon. Nobody knows or talks about Tillis. I think this whole crap is rigged. The people are for Brannon, how its not translating to votes is beyond me.

Apparently there were more Tillis voters than folks may have let on. Much like Thornberry winning re-election in Texas over Barlow and Hays, just because people speak to certain groups that aren't in favor of the incumbent doesn't mean said incumbent won't already have a ton of voters in his corner.

Which means the likes of Cochran and Graham will likely cruise to re-election as well.

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 07:28 PM
So Senator Hagan retains her seat. Big win for the GOP establishment, eh?

Brett85
05-06-2014, 07:28 PM
its sickening. the local GOP office was completely out in force and all pro Brannon. there was no Tillis presence and everyone i talk to likes brannon. Nobody knows or talks about Tillis. I think this whole crap is rigged. The people are for Brannon, how its not translating to votes is beyond me.

Brannon had all of the enthusiastic support. However, enthusiastic support doesn't always translate into votes. Tillis had a lot of people vote for him who weren't enthusiastic about him and weren't huge supporters of him, but they just voted for the "safe" candidate who they thought had a better chance to defeat Hagan in November.

CPUd
05-06-2014, 07:28 PM
If I refresh it hangs. If I close the tab and copy/paste the link back in it works. This is a joke.

How the hell does the NC BoE not know how many precincts there are until they've counted half of them???

Their site is getting hammered. I think they are trying to cache their results page, which is making the numbers look funny.

Uriah
05-06-2014, 07:30 PM
Primaries should remain completely under the control of political parties. They should not be paid for by the state. A caucus in my opinion is much more in touch with grassroots activists that are politically involved and educated, at least more than the average person. By the sound of it if NC was a caucus state Brannon would be running away with it right now. Question to the grassroots in NC; what percentage of people that you talked to were 60 plus in age?

AuH20
05-06-2014, 07:34 PM
The mailers and ads did Brannon in. You need serious money to counter, especially with older voters who do not utilize alternative media.

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 07:35 PM
I think Harris did Brannon in. He drew away the Huckabee voters which could have easily been Brannon votes with just a bit of convincing.

Matt Collins
05-06-2014, 07:36 PM
Politico predicts Tillis.
That was a foregone conclusion... the real question is whether or not he scores over 40% thus avoiding a runoff

phill4paul
05-06-2014, 07:36 PM
Primaries should remain completely under the control of political parties. They should not be paid for by the state. A caucus in my opinion are much more in touch with grassroots activists that are politically involved and educated, at least more than the average person. By the sound of it if NC was a caucus state Brannon would be running away with it right now. Question to the grassroots in NC; what percentage of people that you talked to were 60 plus in age?

Didn't talk to many over 60. The outlier community around my oasis is McMansionville. Most in their 40's and 50's. My parents are in their 80's and after they decided I was right about Ron Paul just vote for who I tell them to.

eleganz
05-06-2014, 07:36 PM
We had the foot soldiers but they had the aerial carpet bombing.

devil21
05-06-2014, 07:36 PM
So Tillis wins at 45% with almost half of the precincts still unreported and obvious reporting issues? yeah ok.

Total precincts is now back to 2501. Apparently the Dems have one more precinct in NC than Republicans do. Hagan's race says 2502.

Matt Collins
05-06-2014, 07:37 PM
If Tillis wins this outright, what it means is that Rove will be able to say "fuck the grassroots, all I need is enough money from a few special interests to buy any election."
Yes of course, and it can be demoralizing. But if this is the case, at least they had to fight us.

The next best thing to getting your guy in there, is causing them to bleed resources to defend their ground. They really don't like challenges to their power.

TaftFan
05-06-2014, 07:37 PM
I think Harris did Brannon in. He drew away the Huckabee voters which could have easily been Brannon votes with just a bit of convincing.

Harris helped a lot. The point is to get Tillis under 40%.

Southron
05-06-2014, 07:38 PM
Primaries should remain completely under the control of political parties. They should not be paid for by the state. A caucus in my opinion is much more in touch with grassroots activists that are politically involved and educated, at least more than the average person. By the sound of it if NC was a caucus state Brannon would be running away with it right now. Question to the grassroots in NC; what percentage of people that you talked to were 60 plus in age?

I would love a caucus system.

I suspect all the daytime TV ads have a great effect on the older retired folks.

sluggo
05-06-2014, 07:38 PM
Congratulations, Sen. Hagan.

r3volution 3.0
05-06-2014, 07:38 PM
Not looking good...

But, at least Brannon stomped Harris, i.e. Rand's pick stomped Huckleberry's pick.

dntrpltt
05-06-2014, 07:39 PM
Harris helped a lot. The point is to get Tillis under 40%.

With the precincts that are left, I don't think Tillis will get under 40. (But hopefully I'm found to be wrong!)

Politico predicted Tillis to win--that's a win without a runoff.

Inkblots
05-06-2014, 07:40 PM
Precincts Reported: 119 of 230
Taylor Griffin REP 9,641 49.94 %
Walter Jones REP 9,028 46.76 %

Uh oh... we're not going to get swept, are we? C'mon, NC, get it together...

Brett85
05-06-2014, 07:43 PM
Uh oh... we're not going to get swept, are we? C'mon, NC, get it together...

Politico has Jones up by 6%, so the results are just all over the place. Who knows who's actually ahead in that race.

Southron
05-06-2014, 07:43 PM
So far looks like Im going to go 0 for 5 on my ballot.

Brian4Liberty
05-06-2014, 07:44 PM
its sickening. the local GOP office was completely out in force and all pro Brannon. there was no Tillis presence and everyone i talk to likes brannon. Nobody knows or talks about Tillis. I think this whole crap is rigged. The people are for Brannon, how its not translating to votes is beyond me.

I wouldn't put vote rigging past the establishment. They do it all the time.

devil21
05-06-2014, 07:45 PM
If Griffin and Jones both get over 40%, wouldn't that mean a run-off between them both since there's a third candidate? No idea what the rules are for that.

2719 total precincts now.

Brett85
05-06-2014, 07:46 PM
I wouldn't put vote rigging past the establishment. They do it all the time.

I don't think so. The results were pretty much in line with the public opinion polls.

Brett85
05-06-2014, 07:46 PM
If Griffin and Jones both get over 40%, wouldn't that mean a run-off between them both since there's a third candidate? No idea what the rules are for that.

No, it would just mean that the person with the highest percentage wins.

Uriah
05-06-2014, 07:47 PM
Now there are 2,719 precincts... wtf mate?

phill4paul
05-06-2014, 07:49 PM
I wouldn't put vote rigging past the establishment. They do it all the time.

http://www.mapleprimes.com/view.aspx?sf=103131/322672/BinaryRain.gif

phill4paul
05-06-2014, 07:58 PM
I don't think so. The results were pretty much in line with the public opinion polls.

And that means...what, exactly? If both voting counts and "public" opinion polls were to be controlled then you get "independent" confirmation of the system as a whole. If YOU were gaming the system wouldn't that be exactly the way you would choose to run it? And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it IS gamed. I'm just saying it would be easy to control both factors.

cajuncocoa
05-06-2014, 08:03 PM
Damn conspiracy theorists.

devil21
05-06-2014, 08:04 PM
And that means...what, exactly? If both voting counts and "public" opinion polls were to be controlled then you get "independent" confirmation of the system as a whole. If YOU were gaming the system wouldn't that be exactly the way you would choose to run it? And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it IS gamed. I'm just saying it would be easy to control both factors.

Anyone watching the results come in real-time MUST question this result. Precincts back down to 2577.

CPUd
05-06-2014, 08:07 PM
Anyone watching the results come in real-time MUST question this result. Precincts back down to 2577.

Take the &county_id=0 off the URL. It causes it to apply some kind of filter.

devil21
05-06-2014, 08:12 PM
Take the &county_id=0 off the URL. It causes it to apply some kind of filter.

That is bizarre. Im ashamed that website is for my state :( Still doesn't change all the strangeness earlier in the reporting though.

RJB
05-06-2014, 08:34 PM
Damn conspiracy theorists.

It'll happen if you've seen the 2008 and 2012 election, unfortunately. :(

devil21
05-06-2014, 08:37 PM
It'll happen if you've seen the 2008 and 2012 election, unfortunately. :(

Local news keeps repeating that the numbers are all over the place.

GunnyFreedom
05-06-2014, 08:37 PM
123 to 97 Brannon over Tillis; Youngsville West #2, Franklin County precinct 19

tsai3904
05-06-2014, 08:42 PM
463869547900968960

Brian4Liberty
05-06-2014, 08:47 PM
123 to 97 Brannon over Tillis; Youngsville West #2, Franklin County precinct 19

No doubt you will have some insights on the whole process. That is one precinct we can compare when (if) they release final results.

eleganz
05-06-2014, 08:47 PM
For what it is worth...

A lot of the Brannon polling volunteers were reporting very high percentages for Brannon.

devil21
05-06-2014, 08:51 PM
123 to 97 Brannon over Tillis; Youngsville West #2, Franklin County precinct 19

You have those numbers because you were a poll official, right?

Trying to figure out the numbers from the text/zip files on the BoE website is nearly impossible.

Brian4Liberty
05-06-2014, 08:52 PM
For what it is worth...

A lot of the Brannon polling volunteers were reporting very high percentages for Brannon.

Many elections have come to depend upon candidates conceding, and then they don't even count the votes.

GunnyFreedom
05-06-2014, 09:10 PM
You have those numbers because you were a poll official, right?

Trying to figure out the numbers from the text/zip files on the BoE website is nearly impossible.

Not just official, Chief. But yes.

Shane Harris
05-06-2014, 09:51 PM
Well I guess now its time to rally around Tillis so the Republican can win in November. Right?? sarc/

devil21
05-06-2014, 10:06 PM
Articles about BoE website problems showing up.

http://www.wcnc.com/news/politics/NC-Elections-web-site-reported-incorrect-figures-258220421.html

(Anybody know how the AP has their own election results stream that's unrelated to the BoE's results? Where is the AP getting their numbers from then??)


http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/05/06/4891736/voters-meet-new-nc-voting-laws.html#.U2mxfSgqTBN

BoE spokesman is Josh Lawson, former personal aide to John Ashcroft, and worked in the GWB administration (so did Heidi Cruz, Ted Cruz' wife fyi). He was hired as BoE spokesman -only two months ago-. His wife is a NC Supreme Court clerk. Ill never be entirely convinced that these elections aren't rigged from the top.

I just watched a quick local news interview with Josh Lawson and he can barely contain his fucking laugh when asked about the numbers problems. Im calling bs on this election result.

Matt Collins
05-06-2014, 10:46 PM
Here is the real scoop:




American Crossroads spent $1.6 million on behalf of Tillis, significantly more than the resources of Republican challengers Greg Brannon and Mark Harris. They aired three ads, which each touted Tillis's conservative record and rebutted Democratic attacks against him.

The goal was simple: Increase Tillis's low name identification, knowing his opponents wouldn't have the resources to fight back. In January, the group commissioned a survey from veteran GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen showing Tillis only tallying 16 percent in the crowded field, with 60 percent of Republican voters unsure of their choice. Just over one-quarter of North Carolina GOP voters were familiar with Tillis. But in the middle of their advertising blitz in late April, another poll commissioned by Crossroads and conducted by van Lohuizen found Tillis's name identification had shot up to 66 percent, with him tallying 38 percent of the primary vote. That same poll showed only about one-third of voters familiar with Brannon and Harris.




Their strategy was twofold: Spend early to avoid a financially costly runoff that could wound Tillis for the general election and begin to make the case against embattled Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan. It worked, with Tillis winning well over 40 percent across the board, in most North Carolina counties.


Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which spent over $1 million in ads backing Tillis, also saw two other endorsed candidates prevail in contested primaries—Rep. David Joyce in Ohio and North Carolina congressional candidate David Rouzer.



SOURCE: http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/republican-establishment-sweeps-tea-party-in-first-round-of-primaries-20140506

phill4paul
05-06-2014, 11:06 PM
Well I guess now its time to rally around Tillis so the Republican can win in November. Right?? sarc/

Nope. Kay Hagan all the way. The GOP is gonna have to learn one way or the other and the equal of two evils is merely the equal.

ctiger2
05-06-2014, 11:39 PM
Rigged

economics102
05-06-2014, 11:40 PM
Nope. Kay Hagan all the way. The GOP is gonna have to learn one way or the other and the equal of two evils is merely the equal.

From a voting strategy, it would actually make somse sense for us to publicly push Hagan. After all, we want to fill the senate with conservative Republicans, not RINOS. If a RINO gets elected to the senate, we don't get another chance at getting a real conservative in that seat until the RINO either loses to a Democrat or retires. So if Hagan wins re-election, we get another shot in 6 years. Seems quite logical to me.

Matt Collins
05-07-2014, 12:18 AM
Rigged
Proof? :rolleyes:

Aratus
05-07-2014, 12:35 AM
http://www.mapleprimes.com/view.aspx?sf=103131/322672/BinaryRain.gif

i am mesmerized by the ones and zeroes. five minutes of my life were stolen by this cryptic dance.

RandallFan
05-07-2014, 01:01 AM
From a voting strategy, it would actually make somse sense for us to publicly push Hagan. After all, we want to fill the senate with conservative Republicans, not RINOS. If a RINO gets elected to the senate, we don't get another chance at getting a real conservative in that seat until the RINO either loses to a Democrat or retires. So if Hagan wins re-election, we get another shot in 6 years. Seems quite logical to me.

Hagan will be a nobody who beat 2 RINOs. She is not the problem.

Anti-Neocon
05-07-2014, 01:25 AM
It would be much better for us if Hagan wins.

devil21
05-07-2014, 01:45 AM
Lawson can barely contain his laugh during his 20 second interview about the election results. He's smirking the entire time. Im calling bs on this election result.

Here's the link but no video. The video of this dick smirking at the question of results has been shown all night though. I hope someone can find it. It's written all over his face.
http://charlotte.twcnews.com/content/news/707412/nc-board-of-elections-website-glitch-reports-erroneous-results

devil21
05-07-2014, 02:33 AM
I recall something (news article) a few years ago about US election results going to a company in Israel for 'processing' before being returned to the US for reporting. Anyone else remember that?

http://www.diamondintelligence.com/magazine/magazine.aspx?id=12033

I think the "absentee voter" anomaly is where the fuckery is.

devil21
05-07-2014, 02:51 AM
The spread on the first 16 precincts is really odd:


NAME ON BALLOT Party Votes Pct
Edward Kryn REP 136 20.09 %
Alex Lee Bradshaw REP 135 19.94 %
Jim Snyder REP 91 13.44 %
Heather Grant REP 90 13.29 %
Ted Alexander REP 90 13.29 %
Thom Tillis REP 45 6.65 %
Mark Harris REP 45 6.65 %
Greg Brannon REP 45 6.65 %


This.

My handle is devil21 after all. For anyone interested in numerology, these numbers should raise serious eyebrows.

DeMintConservative
05-07-2014, 07:03 AM
Nope. Kay Hagan all the way. The GOP is gonna have to learn one way or the other and the equal of two evils is merely the equal.

I'm not sure that's very pedagogic. And it certainly won't buy you a lot of good will. Had Brannon won, would you suggest Tillis supporters to vote for Hagan as the equal of two evils? What if Rand Paul is the nominee in 2016? Do you think those Republicans who support more moderate candidates should vote for Hillary? I think you are, as you're saying that they're actually much closer to Hillary than to Paul. Not a good lesson to teach unless you love losing. Perhaps you should get involved in the Libertarian Party, you come across as a bit too over-emotional and sectarian for big tent parties.

phill4paul
05-07-2014, 07:19 AM
I'm not sure that's very pedagogic. And it certainly won't buy you a lot of good will. Had Brannon won, would you suggest Tillis supporters to vote for Hagan as the equal of two evils? What if Rand Paul is the nominee in 2016? Do you think those Republicans who support more moderate candidates should vote for Hillary? I think you are, as you're saying that they're actually much closer to Hillary than to Paul. Not a good lesson to teach unless you love losing. Perhaps you should get involved in the Libertarian Party, you come across as a bit too over-emotional and sectarian for big tent parties.

I don't give a damn for the establishment GOP and, quite honestly, will not vote for any RINO they choose. I did not vote for McCain. I did not vote for Romney. I will not vote for Tillis. So stuff that into the GOP pipe you're huffing on and let all your GOP friends know that there are real consequences for not nominating liberty candidates. And if that consequence is that the GOP crashes and burns, or has a schism, and a new party takes it's place then GOOD. I'm not here to "play ball" with the establishment. The more the establishment loses the quicker it becomes irrelevant.

Mr.NoSmile
05-07-2014, 07:26 AM
I don't give a damn for the establishment GOP and, quite honestly, will not vote for any RINO they choose. I did not vote for McCain. I did not vote for Romney. I will not vote for Tillis. So stuff that into the GOP pipe you're huffing on and let all your GOP friends know that there are real consequences for not nominating liberty candidates. And if that consequence is that the GOP crashes and burns, or has a schism, and a new party takes it's place then GOOD. I'm not here to "play ball" with the establishment. The more the establishment loses the quicker it becomes irrelevant.

Question: by that logic, isn't it just as likely that the establishment would say there are consequences for nominating TP or liberty style candidates and claim that they aren't electable or can't win general elections- and just look to Brannon, Katrina Pierson in Texas, the nominees in 2010 and so on and go 'See?'

DeMintConservative
05-07-2014, 07:40 AM
I don't give a damn for the establishment GOP and, quite honestly, will not vote for any RINO they choose. I did not vote for McCain. I did not vote for Romney. I will not vote for Tillis. So stuff that into the GOP pipe you're huffing on and let all your GOP friends know that there are real consequences for not nominating liberty candidates. And if that consequence is that the GOP crashes and burns, or has a schism, and a new party takes it's place then GOOD. I'm not here to "play ball" with the establishment. The more the establishment loses the quicker it becomes irrelevant.

How's that working for you?

Politics is about persuading people, not some fantasy war game. You don't persuade people by antagonizing them. You just drive them away. Until you change your mindset, you won't win.

phill4paul
05-07-2014, 07:46 AM
Question: by that logic, isn't it just as likely that the establishment would say there are consequences for nominating TP or liberty style candidates and claim that they aren't electable or can't win general elections- and just look to Brannon, Katrina Pierson in Texas, the nominees in 2010 and so on and go 'See?'

But they can, and do, win. When the establishment doesn't throw it's full weight against them. When it doesn't gerrymander a sitting state congressman out of a district that was hard fought and won through determination, GOTV, minority outreach against a Dem in a Dem district that outspends that candidate.
People need to understand that there is a battle being waged against us (liberty movement) by the establishment. Left and right.
If we are not here to change the status-quo then why even participate? You do not win by aiding and abetting the enemy.

Mr.NoSmile
05-07-2014, 07:54 AM
But they can, and do, win. When the establishment doesn't throw it's full weight against them.

While I agree, the fact is that many of the incumbents and establishment types are well funded and grassroots support can only pump out so much money and not come close to what PACs and outside special interests can provide. Now people will say, 'Ron Paul raised millions in a day' and that's true, but Ron Paul is Ron Paul. That type of support and backing could be duplicated over time, but someone like Brannon probably wouldn't have been able to raise that much, especially not without the name recognition that Tillis already had as Speaker. Yes, it's an ongoing battle being waged from both sides seeing a faction as un-electable, and that mantra most definitely will continue into November. It's why I think someone like Lindsey Graham will retain his seat a. due to the number of challengers and b. they will be portrayed as unflinching and uncompromising, and when Americans have so little faith in politicians, on the surface level, they'd see 'reaching across the aisle' as an example of things getting done. It blows, but change comes over time, which is why I hope all of Brannon's backers stay involved and don't just throw in the towel.

phill4paul
05-07-2014, 07:57 AM
While I agree, the fact is that many of the incumbents and establishment types are well funded and grassroots support can only pump out so much money and not come close to what PACs and outside special interests can provide. Now people will say, 'Ron Paul raised millions in a day' and that's true, but Ron Paul is Ron Paul. That type of support and backing could be duplicated over time, but someone like Brannon probably wouldn't have been able to raise that much, especially not without the name recognition that Tillis already had as Speaker. Yes, it's an ongoing battle being waged from both sides seeing a faction as un-electable, and that mantra most definitely will continue into November. It's why I think someone like Lindsey Graham will retain his seat a. due to the number of challengers and b. they will be portrayed as unflinching and uncompromising, and when Americans have so little faith in politicians, on the surface level, they'd see 'reaching across the aisle' as an example of things getting done. It blows, but change comes over time, which is why I hope all of Brannon's backers stay involved and don't just throw in the towel.

Oh, I don't think anyone is throwing in the towel just yet.

Mr.NoSmile
05-07-2014, 08:12 AM
Good to know. Just that vibe of people, after someone they wanted loses a race, getting disillusioned and stop becoming involved. You know, as the higher-ups of the GOP say, the younger folks aren't involved during off-presidential years. Not so with the left, which is probably why they garner the youth vote with no issue, but now I'm making this a left versus right thing. Point is hopefully all of Brannon's backers down there stay involved.

Batman
05-07-2014, 01:23 PM
Now's not the time to give up. We double down everywhere else we might have a chance - Nebraska, Mississippi, Georgia, Oklahoma...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnyI75EthaQ

devil21
05-09-2014, 05:37 PM
Has anyone seen or found (or can find) ANY exit polling for Brannon's race? I can't find any published exit polling anywhere, which is very unusual for such a high profile race. MSM always does exit polling for national races and usually gives their projections based on them. I can find precisely zero exit polling or even so much as a mention of exit polling having been done.

Anybody? Exit polling? Anyone?

devil21
05-09-2014, 06:45 PM
-------------------

Im looking at the txt files of the results by precinct on the BoE election results page and so far Im seeing something that needs further investigation. It was reported that the absentee votes (quote from BoE spokesman) were the cause of the website numbers problems and also made note of the strange first results posted by Crashland above. Ive reviewed the results for 3 precincts so far, Gunny's, mine, and a random precinct also in my county (which is basically Tillis home turf). In all three examples, Brannon -won- the election day turn out. However, in all three precincts, Tillis -won- the "one stop voting" (aka "early voting"). In the random precinct I selected, Tillis "one stop voting" (aka "early voting") accounted for a whopping 25% of his total votes in the precinct! Tillis - 38/13 = 51 total, while Brannon - 42/1 = 43 total. Brannon won the election day turnout but lost the "early voting". This is seen in the three precincts Ive checked so far. THIS needs more investigation. That is not a smoking gun of course but it's an interesting trend that needs to be looked at further to see if this holds true across the board. Two of the three precincts are in Tillis "home turf" area and the third is in Brannon's. It doesn't ring legit that Brannon wins on election day but loses the "early voting" in all three.

If anyone wants to help me look at this further, here is the link for the text file of precinct by precinct results. It's very clunky but you can search for a county name, scroll down to the candidate's results and pick random precincts and copy/paste the line into a new text file you can compare them.
ftp://alt.ncsbe.gov/enrs/resultsPCT20140506.zip

Brian4Liberty
05-09-2014, 07:36 PM
Ive reviewed the results for 3 precincts so far, Gunny's, mine, and a random precinct also in my county (which is basically Tillis home turf). In all three examples, Brannon -won- the election day turn out.

Did the numbers from Gunny's polling place match what they are reporting for election day?

GunnyFreedom
05-09-2014, 08:23 PM
Did the numbers from Gunny's polling place match what they are reporting for election day?

I've been running ragged since Tuesday so I hadn't actually looked, but they had damn well better.

devil21
05-09-2014, 08:30 PM
Did the numbers from Gunny's polling place match what they are reporting for election day?

The election day totals did. I PMed him asking about the "early voting" numbers but no reply yet (check your PMs Gunny). In his precinct the breakdown was Tillis 97/39 - Brannon 123/37 - Harris 41/5. The first number is the election day poll results and the second number is the "early voting" results. According to BoE the total numbers of precincts is 2732. In Gunny's own precinct, if you add in the early voting numbers, roughly 28% (eta not 40%) of Tillis own votes came from early voting.

GunnyFreedom
05-09-2014, 08:37 PM
The election day totals did. I PMed him asking about the "early voting" numbers but no reply yet. In his precinct the breakdown was Tillis 97/39 - Brannon 123/37 - Harris 41/5. The first number is the election day poll results and the second number is the "early voting" results. According to BoE the total numbers of precincts is 2732. In Gunny's own precinct, if you add in the early voting numbers, roughly 40% of Tillis own votes came from early voting.

If I saw it, it can only have been through the haze of extreme insomnia. I've probably slept 6 to 8 hours since last Friday. I was not in charge of early voting, so I did not have those totals.

devil21
05-09-2014, 08:46 PM
If I saw it, it can only have been through the haze of extreme insomnia. I've probably slept 6 to 8 hours since last Friday. I was not in charge of early voting, so I did not have those totals.

Who was? Anyone you know?

Remember, Tillis needed 40% total or more to avoid a runoff against Greg. Playing with early voting numbers could easily account for that extra 5% needed. It's way too many precincts for me to go over the numbers by myself to see if this trend holds but something smells about the whole thing.

Brian4Liberty
05-09-2014, 09:31 PM
More and more people do early voting these days. Who watches that count is a good question.

And the establishment knows this. They were spending and pushing big right before early voting started. Rand and Levin were a little too late with the last minute pushes. Lesson should be learned. Pushes need to take place right before ballots are sent out, especially in States with vote by mail. And/or there needs to be effort right before early voting starts. Waiting until right before the actual election day is like ten years out of style.